L0st Id3ntity
Member
Iran probably thought why not join the blame game.
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Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and others cutting diplomatic ties to Qatar
- Thread starter Blablurn
- Start date
Resident_UA
Member
Too bad you left... I do want to know what you consider to be a better working government/society Iran or Saudi Arabia. I feel like I have less biases against Iran.
DXB-KNIGHT
Member
Lol
Technically they might be right.
It's a lot worse now than it used to be. Back in the day the Cold War kept things more or less at bay, but with it gone, the Saudi Arabia-Iran conflict is heating up more and more. There's a real chance that a war will actually break out between the two some time in the next couple of decades.
Yeah, this reminds me of the gunmen attack on Mumbai in 2008. That was an ISI op, and this could be something similar.
AcademicSaucer
Member
If I think another country attacked my parlament and have solid proof of that the next logical step is to declare war. I don't think Iran has definitive proof, the Saudis have dozens of proxies
Buba Big Guns
Banned
Of course they don't have definitive proof, they're just skipping the proxies in throwing that accusation. It's not war, but they are putting themselves in a "ready" position, especially in the context of this Qatar crisis.
You don't need proof to declare war, and an attack like this doesn't automatically lead to war. The Mumbai attack never lead to war, and this might not either. It's wholly dependent on whether Iran thinks the pros of going to war outweigh the cons. I doubt that they do right now, but things can change over the next few years.
DXB-KNIGHT
Member
Because Saudia Arabia got attacked since the 80s by Iranian backed terrorist attacks and haven't done a thing.
On other news Egyptians intelligence confirmed through their Twitter accounts the presence of IRG in Qatar close to the Emir palace.
Resident_UA
Member
How is it relevant to anything? It doesn't make the opposite impossible...
There's a logical fallacy in this.
Resident_UA
Member
Well Putin was and enemy of Erdogan for few months and now they are buddies again... So no idea in which direction this will go. It's one of those cases where it's hard to have opinion because everything is so convoluted. And Trump being friends with Saudis is only making everything else more insane...
DXB-KNIGHT
Member
Just answering my friends there.
One related news,
Senegal just announced severing diplomatic with Qatar.
Skynews Arabia
Usually, the US is the moderating element in this kind of mess so tensions would die down rather than escalate. But now Trump is president, and he's the loosest cannon in the last hundred years. He's indicated support for Saudi Arabia, but who knows what that will actually mean on the diplomatic stage, or even if that position will hold up by the end of tonight.
The US is aligned with Saudi Arabia while Russia has been buddying up with Iran. I'm pretty sure that Russia will be pro-Qatar if they want to dip their toes in.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Cold War era saw a lot more internal conflict with the rise of strongmen and large terror groups (Hamas, Hezbollah etc etc) along with ethnic cleansing by strongmen. There was even the major flashpoint of Iran-Iraq. The recent change has been Iraq has fallen from a regional power (now under Iranian influence) and SA building their military projection to pick up the slack. The open wound of Syria has been where tensions have been escalating between proxy forces. Now Trump has seemingly given a green light for SA to close ranks on their side of the Strait of Hormuz
Putin is 100% gonna get involved if he can try and fuck over the americans. Possibly kicking them out of Qatar.
You know he smelled blood and will try to fuck over Trump as soon as he can
DXB-KNIGHT
Member
Given that Turkey is intervening in GCC affairs,
I predict there might be retaliation toward Turkey.
I predict there might be retaliation toward Turkey.
Resident_UA
Member
I don't have any strong opinions here and my distrust of Saudi Arabia lies with the fact that Trump is friends with them and whole 9/11 debacle that everyone seems to have forgotten. Both of these are not great reason to be suspicious of anything. They are just circumstantial evidence.
So technically I don't really have sides in this conflict. Blind defense of one over another makes me question the premise of what is happening. And it seemed like you were just blindly defending Saudi Arabia.
Yeah, lots of African countries getting behind their Saudi sponsors. Only makes sense. Expect Djibouti to follow as well.
DXB-KNIGHT
Member
It just did
UAE has major military presence there (so does US by the way).
Resident_UA
Member
I wouldn't even know which side to pick in that case. I believe Putin is much more evil than Trump (he is smarter and he invaded the country I was born it), BUT I really don't see any way this can be resolved with a "winner" even diplomatically.
Plus I'm sure that Putin cares about oil prices more than Saudis do. They can always screw Russia over this...
Not sure about this. Higher Oil price would help the russian economy.
It's not like the saudis would be bombing russian oilfields. Saudis, Qatar and everyone else in that region would be fucked though
Resident_UA
Member
I was thinking other way around. They can singlehandedly drop oil prices which would hurt Russia more than them. They kind of did it few years ago when Russia was trying to team up and get oil prices back up... (even seemed to me that Saudis were pressured by Obama)
Mohonky
Member
Middle East is likely going to be getting borders redrawn real soon. I don't see how this pans out any other way. Every country in the area is at each others throats and Russia and the US have too many interests in the mix to let things just play out without getting involved.
So far as I can tell, China is probably the only major player I don't think has any real financial or power relevant reason to get involved, at least directly.
Yeah, I agree that the biggest change was for the US to allow Iran to swallow up Iraq. Up until then, the biggest counterweight against Iran was Iraq, but with the realignment Saudi Arabia found themselves in a lot of trouble. The invasion of Iraq was probably the dumbest thing that the US has ever done in the Middle East.
I think that this is an instructive case of why picking sides in conflicts is a bad idea. It's unlikely for either side to win outright, so the only plausible outcome is that a lot of people will end up suffering while we wait for the next step in escalation in this Cold War. Usually, it's the job of the US to try to be a moderating influence, but even that's out the window.
The only likely winner is China because they have no bone in this fight, so they'll get to reap any benefits at no cost. But even that's contingent on oil prices not spiking. If they do, then non-Middle East oil producers like Russia and Canada will end up "winning".
AcademicSaucer
Member
A good thing coming out of this Qatar crisis is that you can see all the countries that are servile to the Saudis
I think if (big if) war ever broke out between iran and the saudis oil production would be hit as one of the first targets which would result in a significantly higher oil price. Russian and American oil companies would be celebrating since geographically they're obviously not in danger of being hit.
Russia is much, much friendlier to Iran than Turkey. The US-Saudi alliance isn't something new under Trump, but a tradition back to the Truman era. As a religious monarchy, Saudi Arabia helped us keep down the secular Soviet-aligned regimes that opposed US policy from the 50s up until the 2000s. This alliance has the led the US down some pretty bad paths, because we've historically often cooperated with radical Wahhabist terrorist groups set up by the Saudis. A good example right now is Jabhat al-Nusra, a terrorist organization funded by both Saudi and Qatar that the Pentagon hoped could overthrow the Assad government.
Since 1992, Iran and Russia have moved very close together. Russia is the main supplier of Iranian weapons and helped them with their nuclear program. Syria is under roughly equal Russian and Iranian influence. Because both Russia and Iran oppose US involvement in the Middle East, their regional goals are pretty much identical. Although the Iran government is very, very religious, it has a particular left-wing bent that drives them to reject perceived imperialist activity. As Shia Muslims, the Iranian people are also under threat from many Wahhabist terrorist groups, many of them propped up by our friend Saudi Arabia. Just look at the attack yesterday.
Redrawing borders won't solve anything as long as the core issue is still there: Despots milking the country's resources dry for their own benefit, being supported by foreign superpowers, while the rest of the population get nothing, The Sunni/Shia thing wasn't a factor in Egypt and Tunisia for example.
People keep bringing up the Sunni/Shia conflict as if it's a one shoe fits all situation, when it's mostly a matter of privilege, there is Sunni privilege in Arab nations and Shia privilege in Iran, when the underprivileged revolt, the governments start their propaganda machines to make the privileged class side with them to protect their privilege.
The first step is for the privileged groups to recognize their privilege (Shias in Iran, Syria, and Iraq, and Sunnis in the rest of the Arab nations), which won't happen while state news sound propaganda machines to fuel sectarian tension and get some form of popular support.
The Shia/Sunni conflict is not a religious war, it's an ethnic war, 95% of people aren't religious enough to care, being Sunni or Shia became a socially constructed race over the past few decades, which is why non-religious Shia in SA almost always get treated the same way as the more religious ones. Being born Sunni or Shia is what determines your privilege, not your practice of religion (or lack thereof).
Lebanon's solution works in eliminating privilege, but it's still a short-sighted solution because it divides people into groups, which makes election season a mess.
Bruce Springsteen
Member
You think Saudi Arabia is innocent? lol
vonStirlitz
Unconfirmed Member
He peered into the crystal ball and saw the Eye of Saudron.
Damerman
Member
Fuck me... what the fuck is going on.
Damerman
Member
My exact thoughts.
Iran put out a statement blaming riyadh and washington for the attack according to BBC radio.
Ether_Snake
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Which side is Russia on? Logically Iran's, and hence Qatar, but the US and Turkey have bases in Qatar, so who knows.
vonStirlitz
Unconfirmed Member
It is probably prudent for Russia to steer clear. Turkey and Iran can front it.
In any event, I doubt that Russia has much love for Saudi. Aside from the constant pil price bun fights, dont forget that Saudi threatened Putin directly to unleash their terrorists against the Sochi olympics a few years back...
It seems like Turkey is backing Qatar. And Turkey and Russia are quite friendly to each other recently.
US doesn't seem to matter too much besides the twitter rants.
Qatar and Iran aren't allies. They're just less virulently opposed to Iranian influence, and have historically cooperated with some of the same actors. Hamas is the most obvious example, although they've recently become much more pro-Qatar and much less pro-Iran.
Btw...Has anyone seen it? Considering the news about Russian hackers behind it?
Nope. It was only in a news ticker on Qatar News Agency (the local channel basically).
I missed this post. How do you know it was on television, have you seen it?
1st Course
Member
BREAKING: Turkish Parliament has approved legislation allowing troops to be deployed to military base in Qatar - @DailySabah
Sad to say, but the last time these guys were truly united was when Muhammad was around.
DXB-KNIGHT
Member
The Kurds are into getting a lot of support outside of the US.