I bet the first console maker to try to get an exclusive sporting league's rights loses Madden. I can see third parties fighting for it but Sony/MS/Nintendo would be stupid to piss off EA in such a way.
I don't see it. EA just committed $50M+ a year on top of Madden's development, distribution, and promotion costs. They need to sell an extra couple million just to keep profits where they have been the last few years. They can't afford to throw that weight around next generation since they don't know who might come up with the killer apps and take the market. How would EA feel if they told Sony to screw after Sony bought the exclusive MLB rights only to get left out in the cold when the Sony brand continues to dominate the market. Also, EA needs as many users as possible to sell all their other titles to, telling MS or Sony that they can't have Madden is a sure fire way to get a publisher license revoked.
Madden, while a great seller, only moves about 5-7M copies per iteration. There's a next gen console installed base of over 70M. A lot of that 5-7M each year are the same people buying year to year or every other year. Thats a big installed base to build without even needing to find a counter to Madden.
The Dreamcast didn't fail because it didn't have EA, it failed because it was made by Sega and went up against the Playstation 2.
No single 3rd party decides who wins a generation. EA plays a big role. Take 2 will from this generation. The Japan 5;Capcom, Square Enix, Konami, Namco, and Sega/Sammy, each play a big role. Even Midway is regaining some of its former cache. The console with the best all around support wins.
EA will almost definately use the NFL exclusive license to get near non-existant royalties from Sony, MS, and Nintendo, but they won't try to control those companies with it like a carrot before their nose. That'd get a serious negative reaction that is as likely to hurt EA as it is to help.
