There are various things to consider with regards to Index:
- They're looking at about 150 million dollars for the acquisition.
- The consumer development and publishing component of Index (for Atlus games) benefits most from being able to release successful mid-tier titles on all platforms. As a small/medium developer, that agility is big advantage.
- The game development component of Index includes not just consumer games but also a fairly robust and operational social/mobile division for smartphones.
- The Atlus brand, Persona in particular, is a pretty lucrative crossmedia business with various products in the form of animation, stage shows, radio dramas, concerts, and so on.
These factors combined make it extremely unlikely that any first party publisher would want to take part of the business transfer tender that is taking place. It makes little sense because they will be paying a decent sum of money to take on extra businesses which they are not accustomed to. It is not worthwhile if they're only interested in the developer supporting their platform(s) because that is already happening without them spending a cent.
It is far more likely that more general entertainment enterprises would be interested in absorbing Index into their business strategy. Companies like GungHo who have money to spend, and are already active in the same businesses which Index is a part of (consumer game publishing, social/mobile services and games, collaboration with other Japanese-centric entertainment industries) are far more likely candidates. If it comes down to a bidding war, they are also far more likely to win, because they are in better positions to spend big to acquire companies.