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[Dalek]

Box-Office Analysis: 'Warcraft' Avoids "Utter Failure" But Will Still Lose Money

Legendary Pictures and Universal's Warcraft easily is the most lopsided Hollywood release in modern times.

As it winds down its global run, fully 89 percent of its $430.1 million global gross to date has come from international. And more than half of all revenue ($220.8 million) came from China after the film bombed in the U.S. with $46.6 million.

"Warcraft is a strange box-office beast and unlike anything the industry has seen," says analyst Jeff Bock. "If China didn't end up grossing what it did, this would have been n utter failure. Now it's only a mild concussion. In fact, sequels have been okayed with less — just look at Legendary’s Pacific Rim."

Those close to the $160 million-budgeted video game adaptation say the loss only will be about $15 million. But any deficit stings, because Warcraft is the first movie Thomas Tull's Legendary has released since the company was bought early this year by China's Dalian Wanda Group for a reported $3.5 billion. However, the losses could have been far worse.

Other veteran film execs put the red ink in the $30 million-$40 million range, though the higher figures don't account for an unusual deal for digital rights in China valued at $24 million, along with a flush merchandising pact there equaling $20 million, according to insiders.

Universal, which released Warcraft in the U.S. and every foreign market save for China, should come out OK since it's entitled to a 10 percent distribution fee off the top.

There are a number of co-financing partners on the film, minimizing the risk for any one party. Legendary put up 45 percent of the budget, followed by Universal with 25 percent. Three Chinese ventures put up the rest of the money; internet giant Tencent (15 percent), China Film Group (10 percent) and Huayi (5 percent), while China’s Taihe has a nominal stake.

Warcraft might have done mega business in their home country, but the Chinese investors made deals for worldwide profits, not for just China, meaning they are subsidizing the entire globe. (If there are any hard feelings, no one’s speaking up.)

“You’re almost better off just making it for the Chinese audience,” says analyst Eric Handler of MKM Partners. “It did okay in some other markets where the game was big — including Germany and France — but China really saved the day.” Handler doubts there will be a sequel to Warcraft, but a more bullish source says there’s already a tentative plan for a follow-up, although that person agrees the budget would have to be brought down.

 

[Escape Goat]

This movie gave me a mild concussion.

 

[Berordn]

Last quote makes me a little sad. A Warcraft 2 or 3 film could be great, but they'd definitely need a budget similar to the first one to pull it off.

 

[- J - D -]

Can't wait for the Stephen Chow-directed sequel starring Andy Lau as Shaohao.

 

[DeathyBoy]

This is what happens when you make a terrible, soulless, boring, incoherent, poorly edited film.

 

[massoluk]

I thought they made money after counting in China money going by pure number. But the article stating it's still losing money in the end? Confused here.

 

[DizzyCaffeine]

This is what happens when you make a terrible, soulless, boring, incoherent, poorly edited film.

Jeez, that's a bit harsh. I liked it...and it definitely did not feel soulless.

 

[Shaanyboi]

Shame that a third of the movie (and apparently most of its connective tissue) was edited out. The result was such a weirdly paced, detached movie.

 

[Busty]

I feel like it's worth pointing out that studio/production companies are under no obligation to provide anyone with an accurate budget of their films and they very rarely do so.

Everyone is throwing about $160m as the budget for this film but I've heard that it's much, much higher. There's a reason that Legendary tried to bring on all those Chinese companies (Tencent?) to co-finance the film, it's because the budget had sky rocketed.

Unless this film shifts a ton of merchandise and/or subscriptions to the MMO itself then this definitely goes down as a big, fat 'L'.

 

[tuffy]

I thought they made money after counting in China money going by pure number. But the article stating it's still losing money in the end? Confused here.

The studio gets significantly less of the box office gross from foreign markets than they do domestically.

 

[Kain]

Movie was cool, you americans have bad taste

 

[Busty]

Movie was cool, you americans have bad taste

..., apart from the Americans who actually made the film presumably?

 

[SargerusBR]

This is what happens when you make a terrible, soulless, boring, incoherent, poorly edited film.

What? Is the most faithful adaptation of a video game i ever seen in movies. Calling it soulless is just wrong.

 

[Volimar]

I liked the film okay. Terrible editing though. Amazing FX and some good music. Didn't really care about any of the characters except the orcs and the queen's brother.



Did the game see a subscriber bump from the film release?

 

[Sulik2]

The suits have no one but themselves to blame for the Warcraft flop in the West. Hacking out a significant chunk of the movie a couple of months before release that got rid of all the dialogue, exposition and word building the movie needed to understand what was happening was a terrible idea.

 

[DeathoftheEndless]

The suits have no one but themselves to blame for the Warcraft flop in the West. Hacking out a significant chunk of the movie a couple of months before release that got rid of all the dialogue, exposition and word building the movie needed to understand what was happening was a terrible idea.

It already had too much of that stuff, so more would have made it even more boring.

 

[richiek]

So no hope for an Overwatch movie?

 

[Ivan 3414]

So no hope for an Overwatch movie?

Overwatch movie is likely guaranteed to do much better...if it released now.

 

[Pai Pai Master]

It had problems but I liked it. Studio interference probably fucked any hopes of this becoming a major franchise.

 

[WaterAstro]

Already got the next movie concept here. All Chinese actors.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EONagej8Bu8

 

[iammeiam]

It was better than I was expecting, despite some weird budget issues--on-screen spell effects were good, but there were spots where it looked like they were flashing a blue strobe on a characer to represent light from off-screen magic, some of the costumes looked good but the king's armor looked plastic. It also has hands down the weirdest and most surprising cameo in years--

Spoiler

the plot significance of Glenn Close's character was overshadowed by everyone I was with sharing a "wtf is Glenn close doing here" moment. Just... Why.

Really curious to see a cut with all the bits they took out added back in, because the movie we got wasn't bad but the missing spots were felt.

I kind of hope they do get to try another movie, but any chance of making the movies really successful is pretty dead.

 

[Kain]

..., apart from the Americans who actually made the film presumably?

And the 20 people that watched the film in the US, of course xD

Really, WoW is (was) huge here in Europe and it looks like it's a big thing in China, not so much in the US unfortunately. It was expected.

For example when I went to watch the film here in Spain the theater was full, and it was a week after the premiere...

 

[MattKeil]

It would have done better in the US if it had been a complete story rather than a long drawn out Act 1 of a trilogy. Nothing of interest or consequence happens to any of the human characters in the entire film. It's one thing if an episode of a weekly TV show does that, but a feature film can't get away with it.

 

[BronsonLee]

The studio gets significantly less of the box office gross from foreign markets than they do domestically.

Not in this case

They get alllll* that delicious China money

 

[Extra Sauce]

Are we getting Duncan's cut on home video?

 

[Silexx]

What? Is the most faithful adaptation of a video game i ever seen in movies.

And that is, sadly, perhaps part of the problem.

 

[NeOak]

It would have done better in the US if it had been a complete story rather than a long drawn out Act 1 of a trilogy. Nothing of interest or consequence happens to any of the human characters in the entire film. It's one thing if an episode of a weekly TV show does that, but a feature film can't get away with it.

Can't have Warcraft 2 without a 1.

And this based on the WoW-revised version of the story, which had quite a bit added to it. The original game was kinda bare on plot tbh.

 

[Cromwell]

Movie was cool, you americans have bad taste

It was universally panned by nearly every critic, not just American ones.

Even Mark Kermode couldn't rate it higher than slightly above decent, and he tried to be positive about it since he loves Duncan Jones.

The only people I've heard from who really liked it are hardcore fans of WoW who don't mind Metzen's shit-tier writing.

 

[Abilidebob]

Loved the movie, even the friends that never played anything Warcraft liked it. Reception on my facebook feed was also great. I wonder how much Brazil earned for the movie.

 

[megalowho]

Can't have Warcraft 2 without a 1.

And this based on the WoW-revised version of the story, which had quite a bit added to it. The original game was kinda bare on plot tbh.

I think you easily could. Was hubris to start a trilogy with stretched out backstory no one cares about instead of working with the narrative arc deserving of a movie.

 

[Dead]

Are we getting Duncan's cut on home video?

Nope. Just deleted scenes.

Sucks since you can literally see where the movie was chopped to bits in the editing room and even the end credits reference a few characters not seen in the Theatrical version iirc.

 

[Sapientas]

I found it pretty fun (though I was a WoW core player for quite some time) and sad to know we probably won't get a sequel.

 

[Crossing Eden]

When I went to see this movie with a close friend he was literally shaking with excitement as the opening credits came on, when the movie ended he was just shaking his head and we spent the hour ride home critiquing the film. As a film it's not very good. At all.

 

[voodoojohn]

If the budget was $160 million and it's grossed $430 million, then how is it going to end up losing $15 million? Can someone smarter than me explain this?

 

[The Lamonster]

I loved it and would be extremely bummed if Jones didn't make a sequel or two.

 

[Cromwell]

I loved it and would be extremely bummed if Jones didn't make a sequel or two.

I don't know why anyone who's seen Moon or Source Code would want him saddled with Warcraft for another 5 or so years, even if Warcraft were really good.

Dude is way too talented to be Blizzard's lapdog, and Warcaft's reception is almost certainly not his fault.

 

[HStallion]

This movie was 5 years too late. WoW is still popular but this movie would have done far far better around the time of the Burning Crusade when you have stuff like the Make Love not Warcraft episode of South Park, the games population was much higher, etc.

 

[WavekSra]

Gives me conniptions

 

[serenewarfare]

I don't know why anyone who's seen Moon or Source Code would want him saddled with Warcraft for another 5 or so years, even if Warcraft were really good.

Dude is way too talented to be Blizzard's lapdog, and Warcaft's reception is almost certainly not his fault.

Considering how much he loves the source material, I doubt he would choose anything original over doing a sequel if it were up to him.

 

[Tookay]

If the budget was $160 million and it's grossed $430 million, then how is it going to end up losing $15 million? Can someone smarter than me explain this?

Because studios don't receive every dollar that gets spent at the theater. The theater takes a cut and in terms of international box office, that cut is even bigger. So here, you have a film that made a majority of its revenue from the international market, which means a decent portion of the revenue didn't go to the studio.

 

[Cromwell]

Considering how much he loves the source material, I doubt he would choose anything original over doing a sequel if it were up to him.

He loves a lot of video games. Doesn't mean anything, the movie still bombed in the U.S. and got panned. He went from being hailed as a visionary original sci-fi filmmaker to this, it makes absolutely no sense whatsoever for him to want to dig deeper into this franchise and ruin a potentially amazing career. There's no authorship here, it's just a corporate behemoth that he's guiding along.

 

[shiftplusone]

I loved the movie. I've been a huge warcraft fan since 94 though so I know i'm not the general audience.

shame it didn't make it's budget back

 

[Dysun]

I liked it, hope there is a sequel. It rushed too many things and put too much of others, but still enjoyable as a fan

 

[TAJ]

Because studios don't receive every dollar that gets spent at the theater. The theater takes a cut and in terms of international box office, that cut is even bigger. So here, you have a film that made a majority of its revenue from the international market, which means a decent portion of the revenue didn't go to the studio.

Also advertising.

 

[StopMakingSense]

Because studios don't receive every dollar that gets spent at the theater. The theater takes a cut and in terms of international box office, that cut is even bigger. So here, you have a film that made a majority of its revenue from the international market, which means a decent portion of the revenue didn't go to the studio.

And of all the markets, they make the least in China.

 

[idlewild_]

...source says there’s already a tentative plan for a follow-up, although that person agrees the budget would have to be brought down.

Darn, would have loved to see a full scale WotA or Arthas movie.

 

[HStallion]

Darn, would have loved to see a full scale WotA or Arthas movie.

You wouldn't see that till the third movie anyways.

 

[Dash_Riprock]

I bet the sequel looks like Empires of the Deep, with the same level of acting too.

Movie was cool, you americans have bad taste

Considering the rest of the word made Transformers 4 smash hit, no we don't.

This was my vote for box office bomb of 2016. I did not see it doing those kind of numbers in China wtf. they got lucky

Same here. But I also expected ID4-2 to do Jurassic World-numbers.

It has not been a good year for me...

 

[Jigolo]

This was my vote for box office bomb of 2016. I did not see it doing those kind of numbers in China wtf. they got lucky

 

[Busty]

If the budget was $160 million and it's grossed $430 million, then how is it going to end up losing $15 million? Can someone smarter than me explain this?

Long story short it didn't cost $160m.

See my post above for more details.

This was my vote for box office bomb of 2016. I did not see it doing those kind of numbers in China wtf. they got lucky

Given that we'll never know the real numbers behind that film you might very well be right (though I don't agree with the terminology 'bomb') and never know it.