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Box Office Estimates: Sith beats Cinderella Man, but...

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M

Memles

Member
Friday Box Office Estimates - June 3rd, 2005

1. The Longest Yard - $8.9 Million
2. Madagascar - $8.3 Million
3. Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith - $7.3 Million
4. Cinderella Man - $6 Million
5. Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants - $3.7 Million
6. Lords of Dogtown - $2.6 Million

Wow...a second straight VERY tight weekend at the box office. The big battle that was supposed to take place for 1st spot is a fight for 3rd on Friday, although chances are Star Wars will end up 2nd or 1st over three days.

Star Wars Drop - 53% week over week, which is almost exactly the same as last week's drop. This is not very surprising, but it still stands to set a record today. If it follows the same general dropoff as it experiences last Saturday and breaks $9.9 Million for the day, it will become the fastest film to reach $300 Million, breaking Shrek 2's record of 18 days with an impressive 17. Due to less of a child audience to see the film during the week Sith will fall short, probably by a fair amount, of Shrek 2, but it's still pacing very well in a box office environment that doesn't allow for this size of blockbuster very often, especially this year.

My Predictions for the weekend, more or less taking last week's Saturday and Sunday drops and then lowering it a bit to take into account the lack of a holiday.

1. Madagascar - $26 Million
2. Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith - $23 Million
3. The Longest Yard - $22 Million
4. Cinderella Man - $17 Million
5. Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants - $11 Million

Madagascar has more or less won the weekend, in my view, but the battle for second should be very interesting...even though one would have expected Cinderella Man to be there before Sandler and Co.

Anyone have any anecdotal evidence to assist us? (Paging Olimario!)
 
M

Memles

Member
Matlock said:
Uh, why the hell does everyone always undercut TLY? :p
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In estimates? The reality is that the teenagers and 18-49 males see the movie on Fridays, but then the families take over on Saturday and Sunday, meaning that the box office totals for more family-oriented films (Ep.III, Madagascar) will rise at a higher rate compared to Friday, while Longest Yard will rise far less, if at all.
 
S

Shinobi

Member
Heh, Lords of Dogtown got absolutely smoked...guess the skaters would rather skate then watch a movie for two hours.
 
S

SteveMeister

Hang out with Steve.
Speaking of incorrect predictions, I'm retracting my prediction about Mr. and Mrs. Smith. I think the movie's going to do pretty well. Still surprised about the appeal of The Longest Yard -- I didn't expect it to be in the top 3 this weekend. We'll see how Saturday and Sunday turn out. But I WAS right about Cinderella Man.
 
Alcibiades

Alcibiades

Member
from boxofficemojo:

Return of the Sith #'s are up:

Sat: $10,650,000
Sun: $8,100,000

so it gets the fastest to $300 million record...
 
M

Memles

Member
Alcibiades said:
from boxofficemojo:

Return of the Sith #'s are up:

Sat: $10,650,000
Sun: $8,100,000

so it gets the fastest to $300 million record...
Click to expand...

Hmmm...this means my Star Wars numbers are actually a little low. Interesting. It's more likely to be a guaranteed second now.

Nice to see a Shrek 2 record fall. Hopefully this lawsuit by the shareholders will bury its memory forever.

Edit: Episode III will pass Episode II tomorrow, in all likelihood, and has already passed the original release of the film(IMAX added $8 Million to its total). However, Attack of the Clones started 33% drops, on average, after its third weekend. In the current box office climate, I don't see this happening. Successive drops of 50% for Revenge of the Sith from this point on would leave it, in the end, below Phantom Menace, which isn't much of a surprise. However, if it can retain a good deal of box office and break the usual blockbuster trend as of late, it has an outside chance. It actually dropped less this weekend than Attack of the Clones did in its third, although it had more competition in the form of Sum of All Fears. So, if it can sustain the blows that Mr. and Mrs. Smith and, especially, Batman Begins will hit it with, it still has a chance to ring in some major box office.
 
Alcibiades

Alcibiades

Member
The fact that there are 5 other movies that can be watched isn't helping Sith...

I remember w/ Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones I was pretty crazy about multiple viewings and going w/ different groups of friends, but right now I'm enjoying watching the Original Trilogy and seeing it all fit together, and I'm definitely going to be watching Ep. I&II again...

I definitely want to see Sith again, but I'm also satisfied w/ all the Star Wars already available on Home Video...
 
D

DarienA

The black man everyone at Activision can agree on
Memles said:
Episode III will pass Episode II tomorrow, in all likelihood, and has already passed the original release of the film(IMAX added $8 Million to its total). However, Attack of the Clones started 33% drops, on average, after its third weekend. In the current box office climate, I don't see this happening. Successive drops of 50% for Revenge of the Sith from this point on would leave it, in the end, below Phantom Menace, which isn't much of a surprise. However, if it can retain a good deal of box office and break the usual blockbuster trend as of late, it has an outside chance.
Click to expand...

Phantom Menace is at $431,088,301 according to BOM... I don't see Ep III catching it... For the life of me I still can't figure out why Titanic made so much money... I thought it was a horrible movie... with the best part being the final few minutes.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Memles said:
Hmmm...this means my Star Wars numbers are actually a little low. Interesting. It's more likely to be a guaranteed second now.

Nice to see a Shrek 2 record fall. Hopefully this lawsuit by the shareholders will bury its memory forever.

Edit: Episode III will pass Episode II tomorrow, in all likelihood, and has already passed the original release of the film(IMAX added $8 Million to its total). However, Attack of the Clones started 33% drops, on average, after its third weekend. In the current box office climate, I don't see this happening. Successive drops of 50% for Revenge of the Sith from this point on would leave it, in the end, below Phantom Menace, which isn't much of a surprise. However, if it can retain a good deal of box office and break the usual blockbuster trend as of late, it has an outside chance. It actually dropped less this weekend than Attack of the Clones did in its third, although it had more competition in the form of Sum of All Fears. So, if it can sustain the blows that Mr. and Mrs. Smith and, especially, Batman Begins will hit it with, it still has a chance to ring in some major box office.
Click to expand...

I maintain that it won't clear $400m; the drops of ~50% will continue.

DarienA said:
Phantom Menace is at $431,088,301 according to BOM... I don't see Ep III catching it... For the life of me I still can't figure out why Titanic made so much money... I thought it was a horrible movie... with the best part being the final few minutes.
Click to expand...

Nah, Titanic was awesome. Longest legs of any movie ever, the only way that happens is when people love the film. I saw it a ridiculous number of times in the theater, both with different groups and going solo. It deserved what it made.
 
M

Memles

Member
DarienA said:
Phantom Menace is at $431,088,301 according to BOM... I don't see Ep III catching it... For the life of me I still can't figure out why Titanic made so much money... I thought it was a horrible movie... with the best part being the final few minutes.
Click to expand...

Yeah...that's why I said outside chance. It's not going to happen, but you never really know.

Titanic was a box office anomaly that will never happen ever again; a film that became a cultural phenomenon, had an insanely intense female fan base that was also cross-gender, and a film that continued to make money even when all logic would tell you that it shouldn't. There's no way to explain it. I don't think it's a horrible movie, but there's no way it's really that fantastic either.

Ghaleon, I agree with you, but I don't think it will continue 50% drops. I really don't expect that we'll see drops of 50% past next weekend. I think it will hover around 8-10 Million for a number of weeks, simply because it will continue to have a high profile and resonance with moviegoers in general. I think it can reach $400 Million only if it continues to stay relevant even as more films release. A few bombs might help it out a bit as well (Fantastic Four, I'm looking in your direction).
 
Alcibiades

Alcibiades

Member
DarienA said:
Phantom Menace is at $431,088,301 according to BOM... I don't see Ep III catching it... For the life of me I still can't figure out why Titanic made so much money... I thought it was a horrible movie... with the best part being the final few minutes.
Click to expand...
it had literally no box office compeition except for James Bond which I think opened that same weekend...

Even repeat-viewing phenoms can be reigned in when new, blockbuster movies take up screens and attention, but Titanic was the only thing happening in theatres for about a 3-4 month time span...
 
M

Memles

Member
Longest Yard - $26.1 Million
Revenge of the Sith - $26 Million

No Madagascar or Cinderella Man yet, though they will clearly fall in as 1st and 4th respectively.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Alcibiades said:
it had literally no box office compeition except for James Bond which I think opened that same weekend...

Even repeat-viewing phenoms can be reigned in when new, blockbuster movies take up screens and attention, but Titanic was the only thing happening in theatres for about a 3-4 month time span...
Click to expand...

....none of which explains a $600m haul and nearly $2 billion world wide.....
 
S

Shinobi

Member
Heh, and that was after making less then 30 mill the opening week, then going onto make 16 mill or more 16 weeks straight. It's also $140 million clear of the next closest movie in the US (Star Wars, and that after two theatrical runs), which is beyond stupid. So the only movie that's ever hit the $500 million mark, blew that to pieces and decided to get to 600 mill.

Titanic's success made no sense at all on any level...but it is what it is. If the new DVD sees similiar success, I'll bow to it. But I don't see it happening.
 
M

Meier

Member
WTF! Cinderella Man deserves so much better. Damn, well Russell's movies usually have really good legs, so it could get to 100, but it'll be tough.
 
S

SKluck

Banned
Meier said:
WTF! Cinderella Man deserves so much better. Damn, well Russell's movies usually have really good legs, so it could get to 100, but it'll be tough.
Click to expand...

With Batman and War of the Worlds coming? Hell no. It'll be crushed.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
I was going to comment that Cinderella Man opened in ~800 theaters fewer than the top three movies, which it did. But it also has a lower per-screen average than the top three, which is bad news for sure. It may have decent legs, considering that it should skew a little older in its audience pull than the others. But still don't see it clearing $100m.

Should have opened it in December ala Beautiful Mind.
 
P

pestul

Member
sans_pants said:
batman will wreck starwars
Click to expand...
I might ruin it's chances of getting to $400M (pretty much out on the first run now). Batman will probably not even make $275M.. though I hope it does.
 
M

Manders

Banned
sans_pants said:
batman will wreck starwars
Click to expand...

wrong. star wars will destroy batman in total box office sales. watch. batman looks stupid. gimme another burton directed batman. this new one looks like utter shit.
 
S

siege

Banned
Manders said:
wrong. star wars will destroy batman in total box office sales. watch. batman looks stupid. gimme another burton directed batman. this new one looks like utter shit.
Click to expand...

:lol
 
M

Meier

Member
SKluck said:
With Batman and War of the Worlds coming? Hell no. It'll be crushed.
Click to expand...

Very different target demographic. My parents are seeing Cinderella Man today.. and you can believe me that they'll be nowhere near those two you mentioned.
 
K

Kung Fu Jedi

Member
I was one of the people predicitng that Cindrella Man would do better than this, but I was expecting Star Wars, The Longest Yard and Madacasgar to each slide more, and that attrition would give it the top spot.

There are, in my opinion, only two films that have a chance at catching Star Wars in box office take this summer. Batman Begins and War of the Worlds. War of the Worlds has a tougher time I think, although Spielberg and Cruise bring an audience, but there is no pre-built fan base to the film. Batman Begins could be huge, but it has to be ver very good. I know a lot of people who still have a bad taste in their mouth from Batman and Robin who have been making fun of the preivews to Batman Begins. I have to point out to them that this movie basically has nothing to do with the others. Still, Batman does come with a pre-built audience who are waiting for the next big comic book film. This could be it, but it is yet to be seen. Reviews and word of mouth will either give this movie legs, or make it's reign a short one.
 
F

Flynn

Member
Shinobi said:
Heh, Lords of Dogtown got absolutely smoked...guess the skaters would rather skate then watch a movie for two hours.
Click to expand...

This movie is going to do very well on DVD.
 
M

Memles

Member
Kung Fu Jedi said:
There are, in my opinion, only two films that have a chance at catching Star Wars in box office take this summer. Batman Begins and War of the Worlds. War of the Worlds has a tougher time I think, although Spielberg and Cruise bring an audience, but there is no pre-built fan base to the film. Batman Begins could be huge, but it has to be ver very good. I know a lot of people who still have a bad taste in their mouth from Batman and Robin who have been making fun of the preivews to Batman Begins. I have to point out to them that this movie basically has nothing to do with the others. Still, Batman does come with a pre-built audience who are waiting for the next big comic book film. This could be it, but it is yet to be seen. Reviews and word of mouth will either give this movie legs, or make it's reign a short one.
Click to expand...

You're vastly overestimating the ability for the average joe American to appreciate good filmmaking. Great film or not, Batman Begins will be unable to get anywhere close to Episode III's box office. The franchise was shit on far too much and has been out of the spotlight for too long to make a huge splash at the box office. While it has a pre-built audience, I really am not sure why people are predicting it to be a huge blockbuster; it seems dark, different, and a little less than average American friendly. It'll make for a leagues better film, but box office? I'm doubting it.

War of the Worlds won't have a chance in hell either...the box office atmosphere simply doesn't allow for Blockbusters on the scale of Star Wars/Spider-Man that often.
 
J

J2 Cool

Member
Manders said:
and that sorry excuse for the batmobile is?!?!
Click to expand...

Go back to your ridiculous, lazy, walk-n-drive Burton Batman fetish with the penismobile you hippy!! This Batman brings war!1
 
M

Manders

Banned
J2 Cool said:
Go back to your ridiculous, lazy, walk-n-drive Burton Batman fetish with the penismobile you hippy!! This Batman brings war!1
Click to expand...


whatever. the penismobile is better than a fuckin tank. i've read some batman comics. i have never seen batman cruising around in a tank. what a joke.
 
M

Memles

Member
Manders said:
whatever. the penismobile is better than a fuckin tank. i've read some batman comics. i have never seen batman cruising around in a tank. what a joke.
Click to expand...

This ain't your normal, everyday Batman. That's, you know, kind of the point. The entire idea behind reimagining a series and reintroducing a character into cinema is, you know, changing things and creating a Batman that is definitive to their vision. Not to Burton's vision. Not to your vision. Not even to the vision of the people who are excited about the film. It's about what Christopher Nolan wants to do with Batman, or what Warner Bros. will let him do. And, yes, that means that he has a batmobile that actually has practical uses, is explained in context of the world rather than some wet dream of the creators, and happens to be an overhauled tank.

I'm really not seeing a problem with all of this. Fan of the Burton Batman films or not, the fact that you're not even willing to NOT be an ass about it shows that you have no appreciation for filmmaking.
 
J

J2 Cool

Member
Manders said:
whatever. the penismobile is better than a fuckin tank. i've read some batman comics. i have never seen batman cruising around in a tank. what a joke.
Click to expand...

So wait, you haven't read DKR? What have you been reading??

http://www.batmobilehistory.com/miller-batmobile.php

miller-batmobile.gif


1563893428.01._SCLZZZZZZZ_.jpg
 
M

Manders

Banned
Memles said:
This ain't your normal, everyday Batman. That's, you know, kind of the point. The entire idea behind reimagining a series and reintroducing a character into cinema is, you know, changing things and creating a Batman that is definitive to their vision. Not to Burton's vision. Not to your vision. Not even to the vision of the people who are excited about the film. It's about what Christopher Nolan wants to do with Batman, or what Warner Bros. will let him do. And, yes, that means that he has a batmobile that actually has practical uses, is explained in context of the world rather than some wet dream of the creators, and happens to be an overhauled tank.

I'm really not seeing a problem with all of this. Fan of the Burton Batman films or not, the fact that you're not even willing to NOT be an ass about it shows that you have no appreciation for filmmaking.
Click to expand...


i never said i wasn't going to see it. at least i'm still interested in what nolan can do with this franchise. bottom line is that it still won't top star wars at the box office. that is what i originally stated. peace.
 
N

Ninja Scooter

Member
Shinobi said:
Heh, Lords of Dogtown got absolutely smoked...guess the skaters would rather skate then watch a movie for two hours.
Click to expand...

its because there has already been a really good documentary about the subject released (Dogtown and Zboys) which the film is based on. Its like if they made a Hoop Dreams-The Movie starring Ja Rule and Samuel L. Jackson as the fiery yet compassionate coach. Why watch the fake one when the real shit is all there documented for you to see? If i want to watch a skateboarding movie, i'll pop in Gleaming the Cube.
 
M

Matlock

Banned
1. Madagascar $28,700,000
2. The Longest Yard $26,100,000
3. Revenge of the Sith $26,000,000
4. Cinderella Man $18,615,000
5. The Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants $10,245,000
 
K

Kung Fu Jedi

Member
Memles said:
You're vastly overestimating the ability for the average joe American to appreciate good filmmaking. Great film or not, Batman Begins will be unable to get anywhere close to Episode III's box office. The franchise was shit on far too much and has been out of the spotlight for too long to make a huge splash at the box office. While it has a pre-built audience, I really am not sure why people are predicting it to be a huge blockbuster; it seems dark, different, and a little less than average American friendly. It'll make for a leagues better film, but box office? I'm doubting it.

War of the Worlds won't have a chance in hell either...the box office atmosphere simply doesn't allow for Blockbusters on the scale of Star Wars/Spider-Man that often.
Click to expand...

Oh, trust me, I know that the average American has no taste in films. It still stuns me what most people consider to be great films. I wasn't saying that Batman or War of the Worlds would catch or surpass Star Wars at the box office. Honestly, I don't think anything else this year will approach Epsidoe III numbers. I was just saying that, in my mind, there are only two films that have any chance at all, and these are the two. It's an outside chance at best, I'll give you that. The Batman franchise is still a strong one, but as I said earlier, Batman & Robin still leaves a poor taste in a lot of peoples mouths, and that is not going to be easy to overcome. One thing I did forget to mention that War of the Worlds has going for it, is the fact that average movie goers love to see shit get blown up and destroyed. Spielberg, Cruise, and massive destruction = major winner, but still not enough to de-throne Star Wars.
 
W

Willco

Hollywood Square
War of the Worlds could be huge, but it really depends on the final product. I haven't seen enough to make it a guarantee good flick or not.

Batman Begins is a guaranteed good flick, but I don't think it's going to perform anything close to Star Wars numbers. I think $275 million is being generous. In fact, I think it'll only do maybe $70-$80 million its first weekend. I think it's good enough to have some legs, though. It's going to take a lot of word of mouth to erase the doubt in people's minds.
 
S

shantyman

WHO DEY!?
Shinobi said:
Heh, Lords of Dogtown got absolutely smoked...guess the skaters would rather skate then watch a movie for two hours.
Click to expand...

People should watch Dogtown and Z Boys instead anyway.

EDIT: Just realized I am late with this. Sorry Ninjascooter.
 
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