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Brexit |OT| UK Referendum on EU Membership - 23 June 2016
- Thread starter QuicheFontaine
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You've got to look at what makes up that £200, I would imagine there are some concessions on flight price, a few airlines have said they would have to increase prices if we left, I would also imagine they might be taking travel insurance into account, you arguably don't need it when traveling in Europe because you can get health care while in the EU.
Maybe that constitutes £200?
anonymous_abc
Member
This is constantly trumpeted but it's still as silly as it was a couple of months ago.
A simple national referendum is magnitudes easier to poll for than a GE with an incredibly complicated electoral system, swings, fptp, etc...
Yeah, they've been talking about why the polls were incorrect in the past and a lot of it was to do with phone vs online polling where the phone polls were much more accurate. In these current polls, the phone polls have Remain even higher.
Also, as per a previous post, Northern Ireland aren't counted in these polls, which is likely to swing in favour of Remain as well.
Probably wouldn't make up the whole £200, but the way the £ was losing strength since Leave looked to be gaining momentum, it probably wouldn't help.
Silly?, hmm ok.
Polling is a bit of a strange one, how are they conducted?, who are they targeting?.
The line goes where they want it to go.
True as far as I'm concerned, I said that months ago.
Plus we would probably lose out on the EU261 law entitling us to compensation for any delays over 2 hours or cancellations and not to mention the Euro to £ rates that would further push up the prices.
anonymous_abc
Member
If you're sincerely interested, start reading and following http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ They say more on the matter than we could ever cover here.
And yes it is silly to compare GE polling with referendum polling.
You've also got to assume that those polled actually bother to turn out.
What I am saying is, that I think it's not wise to assume a result is going to go one way simply because the polls say so.
I don't think that is "silly"
anonymous_abc
Member
From the second paragraph on the most recent blog post on UKPR
No one would (or better should) seriously ever say such nonsense. Of course a poll is a poll and not a guarantor of the final result. Proven by the continuous shift in polling results.
You are asking questions as if we were in the 1950s poling. No offence but everything you question to is public information and has been for a long while.
The fact that your anecdotal evidence of what you circle of friends is saying contradicts the polls doesn't mean the polls are wrong - it means your group of friends is in the 45% of people voting to leave. Just because your group of friends don't reflect a 55 / 45 split doesn't mean the polls are wrong, that's not how it works...
I mean this statement infers that the leave campaign has been putting on a great positive campaign..
....no? They're just as bad as each other.
They are, it's been a pretty toxic referendum overall.
As for polls, I have, do, and always will question the validity of them, almost to the point where I think they are a complete waste of time and resources.
milanbaros
Member?
On a simple in out nationwide vote. When?
Then you are just shutting your eyes and denying reality.
No-one says polls are infallible. But a large collection of polls saying the same thing generally points to the same answer - for every upset there has been (1992, 2015), there have been endless and numerous examples where the election went the way the polls said it would (1997, 2001, 2005, 2010, Scottish referendum etc). Polls are a useful tool for campaigns as well because they allow them to see what is working and what isn't and adjust their responses and strategy accordingly.
People haven't made successful businesses and careers out of something that doesn't work. And whilst this referendum might be another upset, it's incredibly, incredibly unlikely given the question being asked, the type of poll and the methodology behind it.
Sevenfold
Member
What an embarrassing shambles from both camps. I've lost respect for so many individuals during this referendum that I'm just done with the whole thing. Brexit has many valid points but the positioning of it as tantamount to racism, whether an in-camp strategy (knowing the types it was going to attract anyway) or not has made any discussion toxic, and the endless scary stats and futures full of woe paraded by the in-camp are pathetic. Any sensible conversation is now well passed. It's Facebook hive-mind FUD level of bullshittery.
Yeah, probably.
The negativity of the whole affair has been draining, it's doom and gloom from all sides, I don't have much confidence in a lot of it, certainly don't have the confidence in the general public making (what I deem to be) the right choice.
Nicktendo86
Member
Leave.EU have gone on some bizarre campaign, posting the private numbers of Douglas Carswell, Suzanne Evans and others and have gone on a rant about tory ministers hijacking the referendum from Nigel Farage.
They really are showing themselves up to be the fruitcakes and loonies that Cameron said they were. They are fighting Vote.Leave because they didn't get the designation rather than fighting the EU campaign. I mean, what the hell do they think they are doing?
Don't get me wrong, Farage should have a place in the campaign. He has spent years campaigning to leave the EU and has shown that he can do very well in debates, such as the two against Clegg in which he battered him really. The problem is he only speaks to the 4 million UKIP voters, most of which will vote leave regardless. The leave campaign needs to speak to the 20 million tory and Labour voters. This is such a blindingly obvious thing I can't believe they don't get it. Actually I'm not sure they don't, the cynic in me almost believes UKIP/Aaron Banks/Farage want to lose the referendum, otherwise UKIP would be irrelevant and UKIP wouldn't be able to claim EU dosh.
I'm at a loss now really, this whole campaign has been one major embarrassment. Both side are peddling utter bullshit to the point that I just want it over now, one way or another.
They really are showing themselves up to be the fruitcakes and loonies that Cameron said they were. They are fighting Vote.Leave because they didn't get the designation rather than fighting the EU campaign. I mean, what the hell do they think they are doing?
Don't get me wrong, Farage should have a place in the campaign. He has spent years campaigning to leave the EU and has shown that he can do very well in debates, such as the two against Clegg in which he battered him really. The problem is he only speaks to the 4 million UKIP voters, most of which will vote leave regardless. The leave campaign needs to speak to the 20 million tory and Labour voters. This is such a blindingly obvious thing I can't believe they don't get it. Actually I'm not sure they don't, the cynic in me almost believes UKIP/Aaron Banks/Farage want to lose the referendum, otherwise UKIP would be irrelevant and UKIP wouldn't be able to claim EU dosh.
I'm at a loss now really, this whole campaign has been one major embarrassment. Both side are peddling utter bullshit to the point that I just want it over now, one way or another.
anonymous_abc
Member
And to think we can just look forward to decades more of UKIP and EU-scepticisms poisoning the well... In a month time we will all be exactly where we started a couple of months/years ago... It's quite depressing and part of the reason I wouldn't mind an out vote...
Miles Quaritch
Member
It's always fun to see idiots start to fight amongst themselves.
I'm already seeing die hard leavers saying that the vote is rigged because of postal votes, just like the Austrian election...
Idiots.
I'm already seeing die hard leavers saying that the vote is rigged because of postal votes, just like the Austrian election...
Idiots.
Nicktendo86
Member
Vote Leave should put that as their new official slogan; 'Vote leave to kill UKIP'.
anonymous_abc
Member
I guarantee that if in wins the first press conference of the likes of Nigel and co. will call for a new referendum.
Miles Quaritch
Member
I'm not so sure. I have a feeling that while some will continue to hate the EU, everyone will accept the vote and carry on with life.
Can't foresee a situation where the die hard leavers demands for a second referendum are taken seriously by anyone.
That's a terrible idea, voting to leave gives them what they want.
I'm voting to stay in. I get too many benefits as a consumer to ever want to leave.
Exterminieren
Banned
Nah. It's the Scottish Referendum all over again- small-c conservatism, stoked by doom-saying, will keep the status quo.
I did think that, then the polls came back even higher, so fuck knows.
Wrestlemania
Banned
I don't think they have been as bad as each other. You can dislike that remain have run a campaign based on projections of the potential negative outcomes of leaving the EU, but it's another entirely to fill a campaign with flat-out lies and dog whistle racism.
anonymous_abc
Member
But as we have learnt in the last couple of weeks all predictions are lies, the future is impossible to know and no economists knows what they are talking about.
anonymous_abc
Member
Which has regrettably been fostered for decades.... Through misappropriation and misinformation for the most part.
Nicktendo86
Member
Remain have run a campaign based on projections, but it is their own projections which are complete and utter bullshit.
Are we really meant to believe that a chancellor that has not hit a single deficit target in 6 years and has even today been shown to miss his last borrowing target by another £2 billion can accurately predict GDP figures in 15 years time? Of course not. It's nonsense. Fantasy. Claptrap.
But what really pisses me off is that it's working. When all is said and done it all comes down to the money. If the government tell us we will be poorer, people will believe it and they will vote remain.
Are we really meant to believe that a chancellor that has not hit a single deficit target in 6 years and has even today been shown to miss his last borrowing target by another £2 billion can accurately predict GDP figures in 15 years time? Of course not. It's nonsense. Fantasy. Claptrap.
But what really pisses me off is that it's working. When all is said and done it all comes down to the money. If the government tell us we will be poorer, people will believe it and they will vote remain.
Don't read the remain leaflets. Read the analisys from the big 4, from the banks, from the companies that need to prepare themselves for impact.
Nicktendo86
Member
I trust big business about as much as the government on this one.
Wrestlemania
Banned
So who do you trust? Boris and Farage?
We will be poorer though. It'd be impossible for us not to be. The amounts they're throwing out are wrong but there are plenty of real analyses out there.
edit:
lol, so you'll accept literally no sources except for crazy Ukippers then?
time for a repost:
One thing this joke of a referendum has reinforced for me is how willfully stupid so many voters are on the topic.
anonymous_abc
Member
So who do you trust to give you an informed opinion? Or do you sit down and do your own study on the subject matter?
Nicktendo86
Member
That's the problem with this whole debate, it's difficult to know who to believe/trust. Everyone has their own agenda, we have politicians taking a side which we know they don't agree with in the hope their careers will be furthered. We have lies and spin coming from all angles.
In the round I just take everything in and draw my own conclusions. Is there a risk to leaving? Yes. Is it worth it? I believe so.
In the round I just take everything in and draw my own conclusions. Is there a risk to leaving? Yes. Is it worth it? I believe so.
I'm the same. To me both sides have just been swept up in worse and worse spin. I will be voting to stay, not because of all the doom coming from the remain camp. But because the leave campaign have said nothing of substance. Both sides are as worse as each other, but it is the leave campaign that had to show stats etc. For me it's better the devil you know.
Big 4 and banks and big companies are not on any side though.
Banks and big companies etc will always pick the side they can get less taxed or make more money.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Well, they're likely to be on the side that benefits them, in some fairness; it's not surprising that particularly large companies and banks would argue in favour of market integration.
anonymous_abc
Member
So just like always and everywhere?
Will they get less taxed in EU or outside EU?
As for more money, big 4 will do huge amounts of money out of a Brexit,
Nicktendo86
Member
Yep, you've hit the nail on the head. Referendums like this will always have the default favoured side of the status quo, a you say better the devil you know. It was up to leave to spell out why we should leave. I personally think there are strong enough arguments to leave but they have utterly failed to project those arguments. I don't blame anyone from looking at the shower of a leave campaign and wanted to vote remain.
We have no idea do we? But it is a given that big banks/companies etc will look after their own.
Yautja_Warrior
Member
So the news on TV this morning has the government saying if we leave, it will hit tourism because it will be harder for tourists to come to the UK. WTF ? they really do sound desperate now and are making themselves look like idiots, more so than they already are anyway.
People already need a Passport to enter or leave the UK right now, while in the EU, so how will it be any harder ? Will they start making people do a Ninja Warrior obstacle course before they let people in or out ?
This, along with control over our own borders and the money the country will save in EU membership fees, I'm pretty sure we will be more than fine. There are other countries who aren't in the EU that are alright, and we will be too.
I'm voting out.
People already need a Passport to enter or leave the UK right now, while in the EU, so how will it be any harder ? Will they start making people do a Ninja Warrior obstacle course before they let people in or out ?
This, along with control over our own borders and the money the country will save in EU membership fees, I'm pretty sure we will be more than fine. There are other countries who aren't in the EU that are alright, and we will be too.
I'm voting out.
So why even use that argument against their analysis?
When big companies are impacted, the economy as a whole is impacted, isn't it?
Look at my edit. Every big company or bank became big by looking after itself. They aren't going to suddenly give a fuck about whether a exit is good for the general public. They are only going to care how it effects them. We have no idea how bad for the short term a exit would be. We also have no idea if it will be better to be out in the long term as the Leave Campaign have said jack shit.
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