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[Miles Quaritch]

Option 3: Emigrate?

It's the option I'm planning on, and I know many others that have too.

Where would you go?

I've always had Iceland pegged as a good place to emigrate to.

 

[Roberto Larcos]

Where would you go?

I've always had Iceland pegged as a good place to emigrate to.

I'm in Spain right now, have been since August - but heading back to finish my degree soon. Spain is a really solid option if you can find employment - more of an open culture, people in general seem happier, the weather is great. For myself, I'm looking to Mediterranean Europe or South America.

But there's no one place that everyone will love. It depends on priorities, vales, how far out of your comfort zone you're willing to go (re: language, culture). Pretty much all of Western Europe seem to be very welcoming to UK immigrants (if you make some effort to integrate), and Britons tend to be respected abroad. A bit of a wake up call when you consider how badly we treat anyone who wants a job in the UK. How long did our newspapers spend demonising Poles, Romanians, Bulgarians etc.?

Also worth noting that this EU passport we have makes it a hell of a lot easier to make a new life abroad.

 

[Hasney]

Option 3: Emigrate?

It's the option I'm planning on, and I know many others that have too.

Was a plan, girlfirend might not be studying abroad now though so may have to wait until she finishes uni.

 

[Lucreto]

A new poll suggests 55% of people in Northern Ireland who intend to vote in the EU referendum will chose to stay.

The survey, carried out by market research agency, Millward Brown, showed 23% of those who intend to vote want to leave the EU, while 22% are still undecided.

NB: NI is left out of most UK polling on the EU vote.

DUP are the only NI party for Brexit, but I remember the two main tenets of their 2014 Euro Parliament campaign was 'the EU is bad and wasteful' and 'we'll milk the EU for all we can get in farming subsidies'.

People seem to forget about Northern Ireland. If they leave it's going to cause a lot of problems. A EU border has to be built, it has be be manned. Some have been saying to send soldiers across to North Ireland before the vote. I wonder if it will cause the troubles to flare up again.

 

[Hasney]

People seem to forget about Northern Ireland. If they leave it's going to cause a lot of problems. A EU border has to be built, it has be be manned. Some have been saying to send soldiers across to North Ireland before the vote. I wonder if it will cause the troubles to flare up again.

I didn't forget, but until that post I had no idea they weren't included in the polls. Seems like a pretty big oversight considering it looks like they'll have a large majority to remain. Depends on the turnout to how much impact they'll have.

 

[OverBlood 3]

Thank god I'm half Irish

Lovely little passport if things go tits up.

 

[Joel Was Right]

Trying to sell our flat, market is totally fucking dead until Brexit. And after, if UK leaves.

Ripe for buyers, then.

 

[CyclopsRock]

I think there are too many hurdles (political and otherwise) for them to ever join the EU. It's literally BS to stir up fear of the invading hordes of Muslims.

If they couldn't do it when they were trending much more liberally in 2006, it's going to a fart in the wind now...

Yeah, agree. I don't think they have a snowball's chance in hell.

Edit: I think I've mentioned already in this thread, but if you want the Spanish (or Spanglish) lifestyle and weather, still still want to go to Morrison's to buy some proper bacon, you can do worse than living n the Costa del Sol and taking the odd trip into Gibraltar.

 

[ReplacementPelican]

Yeah, hate probably isn't the right word here but it's definitely one that could be applied.

Still, it must be sad to see this playing out in real time. To see a once rational person becoming this fear driven shell of a person who parrots right wing propaganda and isn't willing to listen to reason because they 'know better' and the media is biased anyway.

It is quite sad. I think, really, it's just a scapegoat for the middle class, white, Christian 'erosion' of culture. It's weird because his Mother, my Grandmother is a Socialist and always has been since she was working during World War 2. The whole Christian thing is weird though because I'm relatively sure that immigrant populations would be more religious.

Fear intensifies.

This Turkey thing is hilarious because if anyone in the Leave campaign actually understood the minutia of Turkey's attempts to join the EU then they'd realise it's a long way off. That's even assuming that Greece don't attempt to veto the shit out of Turkey even when they have fallen into line with the necessary requisites to be an EU member state.

That being said, Turkey haven't even repealed Article 301, have they? In fact, they've doubled-down on it.

Also, just so I'm sure on this. The whole 'Turkey = scary' bollocks is purely because they're Muslim, right? Even though the papers pretend this isn't the case.

 

[Agent_Tiro]

Also, just so I'm sure on this. The whole 'Turkey = scary' bollocks is purely because they're Muslim, right? Even though the papers pretend this isn't the case.

Can't comment on the papers stance on this. But from a strictly geographical point of view Turkey is a gateway to the rest of Europe from the Middle East and some parts of North Africa. With the ongoing troubles in Syria, along with Turkeys issues with the Kurds it will be a very difficult border for them to police. Which makes it a soft option for anyone wanting to move in and out of Turkey.

 

[ClosingADoor]

Can't comment on the papers stance on this. But from a strictly geographical point of view Turkey is a gateway to the rest of Europe from the Middle East and some parts of North Africa. With the ongoing troubles in Syria, along with Turkeys issues with the Kurds it will be a very difficult border for them to police. Which makes it a soft option for anyone wanting to move in and out of Turkey.

Joining the EU does not automatically mean joining Schengen, so the borders aren't that much of a problem. Getting from Turkey to other EU countries would still mean border checks. Just like Britain has right now actually.

 

[ReplacementPelican]

Can't comment on the papers stance on this. But from a strictly geographical point of view Turkey is a gateway to the rest of Europe from the Middle East and some parts of North Africa. With the ongoing troubles in Syria, along with Turkeys issues with the Kurds it will be a very difficult border for them to police. Which makes it a soft option for anyone wanting to move in and out of Turkey.

Joining the EU does not automatically mean joining Schengen, so the borders aren't that much of a problem. Getting from Turkey to other EU countries would still mean border checks. Just like Britain has right now actually.

Basically this. Britain opted out of Schengen and Turkey only shares a border (in the EU) with Greece and Bulgaria and Bulgaria isn't a member of Schengen yet and Greece is one of the countries that does not want Turkey to join the EU so I severely doubt they'd allow Turkey to become a member of Schengen, it may even be their stipulation to drop their veto.

 

[Agent_Tiro]

Joining the EU does not automatically mean joining Schengen, so the borders aren't that much of a problem. Getting from Turkey to other EU countries would still mean border checks. Just like Britain has right now actually.

I thought you had to opt out of Schengen rather than apply to be in? Not 100% if I am right on that as it is many years since I read in detail about the EU and I've forgotten more than I've remembered since then.

 

[ClosingADoor]

I thought you had to opt out of Schengen rather than apply to be in? Not 100% if I am right on that as it is many years since I read in detail about the EU and I've forgotten more than I've remembered since then.

I think when joining the EU you are obliged to join Schengen, but the other countries can still vote no if they think you are not ready for it and hold it off. This is happening right now with Bulgaria I see.

 

[Agent_Tiro]

I think when joining the EU you are obliged to join Schengen, but the other countries can still vote no if they think you are not ready for it and hold it off. This is happening right now with Bulgaria I see.

That makes sense and is ringing a bell somewhere in my memory.

 

[Uzzy]

I think any chance of me voting leave has just been smashed now that the xenophobic right is in the driving seat.

Pretty embarrassing really. Even so called 'intellectuals' like Gove have succumbed to the hatemongering. We could have had a proper, principled campaign, but instead we've got WW3 vs Muslim Hordes coming to steal our NHS.

 

[phisheep]

I posted very briefly further up rather laconically indicating my concerns about the actual process for withdrawal.

Regardless of whether the grass on the other side is greener or not, the fence in between is tall, spiky and electrified - and also opaque so we can't tell whether there is even any grass there - and also overhanging so there is no way back.

It’s about time I bunged in some more detail. I'm ignoring most of the ridiculous tosh being spouted by both sides. Post is already too long, but happy to expand/discuss whatever takes your fancy.

Economic impact

Could the UK survive and flourish outside the EU? Yeah, sure we could. Similarly we could survive and flourish within the EU. Of course there is that small matter of the net £8.5bn annual contribution to the EU for which we could apparently get 50 new hospitals or 600,000 new nurses but not both. But in reality (a) it won’t be £8.5bn saved, because there will be other costs of whatever arrangements we come to, and (b) we’re perfectly capable of frittering away £8.5bn a year on our own – we don’t need Brussels bureaucrats to do it for us, and (c) even if there is any direct saving to be made there is no political consensus as to what to do with it. Doubtless some would want to bung it into tax reductions, some would want to prop up failing industries or relocate the Foreign Office to Port Talbot, some would want to build a new airport in the Thames …. and none of that will happen without consensus.

On balance I take the economic impact in the long term to be broadly neutral. Helluva a shock short term if we vote to leave though.

The process of exiting the EU

1) Referendum 23rd June.

If we vote to remain, things stay as they are AND we get the benefit of Cameron’s negotiations such as they are (not much I know, but some guard against increased centralisation). If we vote Leave, then the following hell gets unleashed:

2) Government notifies the Council of intention to leave.

There’s no set timescale for this, though politically it probably needs to be within about 5 years of the referendum. I know that Cameron has said he’s do this in a matter of weeks of a vote to leave – but while it is good tactics to say that in advance of the referendum it would be extremely bad tactics to do it so quickly. Reason being that it is this that starts the two-year clock ticking after which any extension requires unanimity from the rest of the EU – which likely means that individual countries would want concessions for their agreement to extend.

In addition, this notification probably requires consent of the Scottish Parliament, which again would require negotiations and concessions. At this stage a further referendum of Scottish independence may be triggered as part of the price of consent.

3) Negotiate exit terms

Of all the negotiations, this is probably the easiest by far. But it is still messy and intricate and probably about five to seven year’s worth of grind and hassle.

4) Negotiate replacement trade treaties

Difficult because there is no consensus as to what is needed, and it isn’t even clear who would be negotiating what with whom.

5) Realign UK politics

All of this will leave UK politics dreadfully muddled. The Labour party is significantly divided with Corbyn. The Tories will be badly split by a Leave vote, the LibDems are damaged goods since the Coalition, the SNP won’t play. So the whole of the 2020 General Election will revolve around the EU. Quite possibly none of the existing parties will survive except the SNP and UKIP.

There will be huge differences over which EU laws to keep and which to ditch, over how to handle the economy, over relations with the EU, the US, with China and the rest. Massive promises will be made, someone will win and all the promises will be broken.

We may have a promised Libertarian Utopia or we may have a promised Socialist Utopia but we can't have both.

6) Negotiate extension to negotiations

Every country will want concessions. Some other countries may by then already have decided to follow us out of the EU (and there are holes in Article 50 of the Treaty, which does not anticipate more than one country being in negotiation to leave at the same time).

7) Leave

At this point we shall have to know what to do with all the current EU regulations (which automatically stop being operative when we leave) and directives (which don’t) and treaties (which do). Thousands and thousands of them. We’ll have sorted out rights for expat UK citizens in the EU, have resolved what to do with the two or three or four land borders with the EU (Ireland, Gibraltar and maybe Scotland and maybe the sovereign bases in Cyprus), have ceded most of our historical fishing rights, and elected a government which has a vested interest in differentiating our laws from those of the EU, so will go changing things for no good reason.

Immigration

At this stage we’ll once again be in control of this green and pleasant and crowded land. Crowded because, ever since 23rd June 2015 immigration has quadrupled – because of people coming here before the door shuts.

Those voting Leave on immigration grounds should be vary careful what they wish for.

Conclusion

All of this is far too fucking scary, and for what appears to be at best marginal benefit. Even that assumes that, as the economists say “other things remain equal”. And they won’t remain equal. A Leave vote here will also encourage the others, destabilise the EU, accelerate the rise of far-right parties in mainland Europe. It won’t be World War III, but it won’t be pretty either.

 

[Jezbollah]

I hear where you're coming from with a lot of that Phi. I'm leaning towards a similar decision personally.

 

[phisheep]

I hear where you're coming from with a lot of that Phi. I'm leaning towards a similar decision personally.

Thank goodness for that! I was beginning to think I had written an incoherent rant.

 

[Jackpot]

It's ludicrous to think Turkey will even be on the first step to joining the EU in the next 10 years and the Leave camp (and anyone with a modest knowledge of current affairs) knows this.

 

[fizzelopeguss]

All of this is far too fucking scary, and for what appears to be at best marginal benefit. Even that assumes that, as the economists say “other things remain equal”. And they won’t remain equal. A Leave vote here will also encourage the others, destabilise the EU, accelerate the rise of far-right parties in mainland Europe. It won’t be World War III, but it won’t be pretty either.

All of this is a given anyway, and it's happening right now with or without brexit. The EU doesn't exactly have the look of longevity about it.

 

[Miles Quaritch]

It's ludicrous to think Turkey will even be on the first step to joining the EU in the next 10 years and the Leave camp (and anyone with a modest knowledge of current affairs) knows this.

I think it's a given they know, the mistake would be to think the people saying this are stupid. The thing is, they know that the people they are talking to don't know these things and so they can muddy the waters enough for doubt to set in and any attempts to discredit their claims will come off 'desperate' or 'of course they'd say that'.

It's not that different to what Trump is doing in the US. The whole Arabs dancing on rooftops after the twin towers fell story is still popping on social media with some parroting it as fact.

 

[Daffy Duck]

So here we are, another day and another doom and gloom story of a DIY recession from Osbourne.

Why can't they just point out the positives of remaining instead of all these stories tha it will be the end?

Exactly what positives are there for us to remain? I'm open to listening to them.

I've watched the Brexit movie and Paxman in Brussels yet there seems very little out there in the way of the remain camp.

 

[phisheep]

Exactly what positives are there for us to remain?

Access to a single market of half a billion people with a reasonably common set of regulations, with freedom to trade, free movement of capital, workers and people, with an overarching justice system that more-or-less works, with representation in the Parliament, the Council, the other Council and the Commission, with mutual recognition of all sorts of things that might otherwise cause hiccups, mostly without internal barriers to trade, with a reasonably effective approach to anti-competitive practices and with some protection against the worst excesses of governments everywhere in the forbidding of state aid and the openness of government procurement.

Now it isn't all perfect of course. The EU overreached itself in the matter of Sunday Trading before it rolled itself back, the CAP is a bit of a mess and the Eurozone is spread a bit thin.

But on the whole it's pretty good stuff.

 

[Daffy Duck]

What barriers to trade would exist if we were out of the EU?

From what I saw on the Paxman program we may well have representation in those offices but our voice is ignored. So what point is there being there if we are just ignored all the time?

 

[Thornton Reed]

I think the Turkey discussion has been the most desperate thing i have seen during this farce.

I have been on the fence whether to be in or out. This whole Turkey, non story, about them joining the EU by 2020 is coming off as racist scaremongering. The leave campaign know who their audience is and i don't want any part of that.

 

[phisheep]

What barriers to trade would exist if we were out of the EU?

There's an absolutely massive searchable list of them here. And every single bit of that would need to be negotiated.

From what I saw on the Paxman program we may well have representation in those offices but our voice is ignored. So what point is there being there if we are just ignored all the time?

There's, what, 28 or so EU members? So of course it looks like we are being ignored. Everybody else feels the same way too.

It's not true though. Look for example at ECJ rulings. The Leave campaign is proud to blat about that the UK has been overturned about 52 times in the ECJ, more than any other country. What they don't say is that we've been on the winning side about 2,500 times - which is a pretty good batting average.

 

[CharmingCharlie]

Another day another scare story with a big SCAARRRYYYY number from Georgie Porgie Osbourne. Apparently we would spend a year in recession and 820,000 jobs would be lost. They seem to have turned up the dial on Project Fear to number 11.

Yet not 6 months ago Cammy boy and Co were perfect fine with us leaving Europe

On the lighter side of things I think this joke news piece sums up things adequately :-

The pro- and anti-Brexit campaigns have agreed to cancel next month's planned referendum on Britain's EU membership, after both sides admitted that their reserves of bullshit, hyperbole and unsubstantiated conjecture had been fully depleted.

Meanwhile, in lieu of the referendum Prime Minister David Cameron has agreed to go mano a mano with rival Boris Johnson and a digestive biscuit in a traditional Etonian approach to resolving the Brexit issue.

http://www.newscross.co.uk/eu-refer...ides-run-out-of-bullshit#sthash.oHtcKaMD.dpuf

 

[Frankfurter]

Another day another scare story with a big SCAARRRYYYY number from Georgie Porgie Osbourne. Apparently we would spend a year in recession and 820,000 jobs would be lost. They seem to have turned up the dial on Project Fear to number 11.

Yet not 6 months ago Cammy boy and Co were perfect fine with us leaving Europe

On the lighter side of things I think this joke news piece sums up things adequately :-



http://www.newscross.co.uk/eu-refer...ides-run-out-of-bullshit#sthash.oHtcKaMD.dpuf

I think that's pretty much inline with what economic research institutes expect, though.

 

[Hasney]

I think that's pretty much inline with what economic research institutes expect, though.

It's higher than most analysis, but the document lays out 2 figures. One for 500k jobs lost and one for the 820k in case it was "SEVERE SHOCK". It seems to check out in terms of it being a gap analysis and the Bank of England giving the (not a forecast from now, a comparison between leaving and staying in) and it's based on models that have been used before, but obviously it's a worst case thing for them to be throwing around.

More here if you can be arsed trawling through a 90 page PDF

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...ate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf

This document has benefitted from a review by Professor Sir Charles Bean, former
Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, acting in a personal capacity as an academic
consultant to HM Treasury. All content and conclusions in this study are, however, the
responsibility of HM Treasury.

Commenting on the work, Professor Bean said: “While there are inevitably many
uncertainties – including the prospective trading regime with the EU – this comprehensive
analysis by HM Treasury, which employs best-practice techniques, provides reasonable
estimates of the likely size of the short-term impact of a vote to leave on the UK economy.”

 

[Uzzy]

From a reading of the Treasury analysis, it looks like most of the worst case scenarios are drawn from Article 50 being invoked immediately upon Leave winning.

It'd be pretty moronic to invoke that immediately!

 

[Hasney]

From a reading of the Treasury analysis, it looks like most of the worst case scenarios are drawn from Article 50 being invoked immediately upon Leave winning.

It'd be pretty moronic to invoke that immediately!

I don't know if that's a good or bad case scenario though as delaying the invoking is going to cause market uncertainty. I can't find it in the document, but the BBC is claiming that the figures are also based on us having a bilateral EU trade agreement in palce.

The Treasury's "cautious" economic forecasts of the two years following a vote to leave - which assumes a bilateral trade agreement with the EU would have been negotiated - predicts Gross Domestic Product would grow by 3.6% less than currently predicted.

 

[Frankfurter]

It's higher than most analysis, but the document lays out 2 figures. One for 500k jobs lost and one for the 820k in case it was "SEVERE SHOCK". It seems to check out in terms of it being a gap analysis and the Bank of England giving the (not a forecast from now, a comparison between leaving and staying in) and it's based on models that have been used before, but obviously it's a worst case thing for them to be throwing around.

More here if you can be arsed trawling through a 90 page PDF

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...ate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf

I really don't understand why Osbourne didn't publish both figures (500-820k, depending on the scenario). Would be so much more credible.

 

[phisheep]

From a reading of the Treasury analysis, it looks like most of the worst case scenarios are drawn from Article 50 being invoked immediately upon Leave winning.

It'd be pretty moronic to invoke that immediately!

It looks as though that is what they have (rather blithely) assumed, yes. And yes it would be a pretty stupid thing to do.

But on the other hand, delaying the triggering of Article 50 would only serve to increase uncertainty - so I think that might be a best-case rather than a worst-case assumption for the immediate economic impact.

 

[Jezbollah]

Well.

Got my polling card today...

 

[KingSnake]

In case Leave wins, wouldn't delaying the triggering of the Article 50 generate protests from the Leave camp and be seen as time wasting?

Plus, the more you delay, the more EU immigrants will try to catch the last train to the heaven on Earth. Also Turkey might be in EU in two years or something and all the Turkish population are already preparing the invasion ships for the T day.

Spoiler

/s

 

[phisheep]

In case Leave wins, wouldn't delaying the triggering of the Article 50 generate protests from the Leave camp and be seen as time wasting?

Mild protests probably, but no severe pressure until there's a consensus, and a majority, in the Leave camp over which way to take the negotiations. So probably not until after 2020.

Plus, the more you delay, the more EU immigrants will try to catch the last train to the heaven on Earth. Also Turkey might be in EU in two years or something and all the Turkish population are already preparing the invasion ships for the T day.

Spoiler

/s

Yep. And the more that happens, the more the public will be inclined to change their minds in favour of staying.

 

[Jimbob Smalls]

Access to a single market of half a billion people with a reasonably common set of regulations, with freedom to trade, free movement of capital, workers and people, with an overarching justice system that more-or-less works, with representation in the Parliament, the Council, the other Council and the Commission, with mutual recognition of all sorts of things that might otherwise cause hiccups, mostly without internal barriers to trade, with a reasonably effective approach to anti-competitive practices and with some protection against the worst excesses of governments everywhere in the forbidding of state aid and the openness of government procurement.

Now it isn't all perfect of course. The EU overreached itself in the matter of Sunday Trading before it rolled itself back, the CAP is a bit of a mess and the Eurozone is spread a bit thin.

But on the whole it's pretty good stuff.

The EU's biggest problem in my eyes is inviting countries to enter who aren't economically ready as it heavily distorts and magnifys the principles on which the EU works.

 

[CyclopsRock]

The EU's biggest problem in my eyes is inviting countries to enter who aren't economically ready as it heavily distorts and magnifys the principles on which the EU works.

Magnifies and distorts cronyism and big-state interference?

Trololol

 

[Roberto Larcos]

The EU's biggest problem in my eyes is inviting countries to enter who aren't economically ready as it heavily distorts and magnifys the principles on which the EU works.

It's either that or the Euro, both were absolutely monumental cock ups. Pre-2004 EU was probably the best form in the eyes of many western Europeans. The 'expansion' should have been integrated (initially anyway) in the same way non-EU EFTA countries are.

 

[phisheep]

I've accumulated a bunch of flyers for both remain and leave. My task for the remainder of the next four weeks is to go hassle campaigners about the lies they are telling.

I don't think they will like it.

 

[Miles Quaritch]

I've accumulated a bunch of flyers for both remain and leave. My task for the remainder of the next four weeks is to go hassle campaigners about the lies they are telling.

I don't think they will like it.

Can you post pics of the leaflets?

I haven't seen many around my neck of the woods yet. There were some remain people going door to door a few days ago but that's it...

 

[Succinct Verbosity]

I don't know if anyone read about the pulling on the front page of the telegraph today, but it seems like leave is leaving all its strongest demographics (older men and conservatives).

 

[milanbaros]

Pound rallying on the new poll. Odds have been slashed on stay. Seems like its a wrap to be honest. Leave would have needed to be making gains now, not falling behind. The markets have priced in a stay vote.

 

[Maledict]

This is why I always laugh when people complain about 'project fear'. It's like complaining about negative campaigning. The reason parties do it is simple - it works. It's been shown time and time again that no matter what the people say, what they actually respond to is negativity.

Most people are inherently cautious, and this type of canpaigning works on that. Particularly on traditional conservative demographics - conservatives don't like significant change and risk after all.

 

[Hasney]

Pound rallying on the new poll. Odds have been slashed on stay. Seems like its a wrap to be honest. Leave would have needed to be making gains now, not falling behind. The markets have priced in a stay vote.

Might be shopping again on amazon.fr by the end of the week if this keeps up.

 

[danowat]

So apparently leaving will destabilse the housing market and cause a crash?. I am kinda tempted to vote out now, just so I can finally get round to buying a house...........

Not that I think my vote is going to make much difference, I have seen a huge swing in the way the people I speak too are going to vote, I would have said a month or so ago, most people were remain, now those who are (saying) they are going to remain are few and far between.

I think the writing is on the wall, and I think the shift has been caused by the wholey negative spin the remain campaign has put on everything, they've shot themselves in the foot.

 

[Hasney]

So apparently leaving will destabilse the housing market and cause a crash?. I am kinda tempted to vote out now, just so I can finally get round to buying a house...........

Not that I think my vote is going to make much difference, I have seen a huge swing in the way the people I speak too are going to vote, I would have said a month or so ago, most people were remain, now those who are (saying) they are going to remain are few and far between.

I think the writing is on the wall, and I think the shift has been caused by the wholey negative spin the remain campaign has put on everything, they've shot themselves in the foot.

The exact opposite appears to be happening right now.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...pensioners-tory-voters-and-men-are-deserting/

It's a new high for remain and the pound is recovering on the back of that.

 

[Roberto Larcos]

This is why I always laugh when people complain about 'project fear'. It's like complaining about negative campaigning. The reason parties do it is simple - it works. It's been shown time and time again that no matter what the people say, what they actually respond to is negativity.

Most people are inherently cautious, and this type of canpaigning works on that. Particularly on traditional conservative demographics - conservatives don't like significant change and risk after all.

Blair won his 1997 landslide on a positive campaign - running against a negative campaign from Major's Conservatives.

So apparently leaving will destabilse the housing market and cause a crash?. I am kinda tempted to vote out now, just so I can finally get round to buying a house...........

Value of property may go down a little, but that would be wiped out through mortgages becoming more expensive - unless you're an all-cash buyer.

 

[danowat]

The exact opposite appears to be happening right now.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...pensioners-tory-voters-and-men-are-deserting/

It's a new high for remain and the pound is recovering on the back of that.

Must be a demographic thing.

Only thing I will say is, the pollers haven't been that accurate in the past......