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British PM Theresa May Brexit Speech 17th January 2017 at 11:45AM GMT

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You have to hand it to them. It's a deviously good plan. Momentum are still too high to realise what's going on though.

Fuck, it's totally true, Labour literally have no option, asides from not being Labour anymore. If a general is called then there would have to be an unprecedented alliance to knock out the Conservatives.

Now I'm gonna sit here daydreaming that politicians would actually suck it up and follow through on such a plan.
 

Lagamorph

Member
Nobody should be surprised by the Tax haven stuff.

I'm fairly sure the only reason we've had so many "Company X invests in the UK" stories lately is because the government have been quietly telling these companies that the UK is going to become a tax haven after leaving the EU so they should all get in early to avoid it looking like they're only investing because of that.
 

Syder

Member
Labour is 100% fucked.

To expand on that slightly...

- May just said that the agreement will go through the house. The Tory's majority is thin and the SNP and Lib Dems will oppose but Labour has a LOT of "Leave" constituencies. Even if they fully whip, it still requires some Tories to abstain or rebel, which *could* happen but...
- Even if it does fail to pass, it's considered a VoNC like losing a budget, May goes to the polls and absolutely stonks Corbyn to achieve an ~100 seat majority. It then passes with ease. So, eitherway, it's passing.
- Furthermore, Labour are in the unenviable position where they a) need to come up with their own position now and b) this plan will almost certainly involve a soft Brexit. This alienates the huge rafts of leave voters that would traditionally vote Labour, as well as Remain voters who see soft Brexit as throwing in the towel. They'll simultaneously suffer drains to the Lib Dems/Greens and UKIP from the same policy position!
- They have at least 2 years of this haemorrhaging of support to go before any general election is likely to take place.
- In one felled swoop the Tories have cut off a big part of UKIP's remaining allure by promising the end of free movement and a pretty unambiguously hard Brexit. Why still vote for a party who will never gain government? As such, less seats have the right vote split, whilst the left will be going several ways based on the voters' Leave or Remain stance.

For anyone aghast at hard Brexit but who still supports Corbyn, this is partially what happens when a government's main opposition comes from their own back benches.
8pTSVjV.gif
 
Nobody should be surprised by the Tax haven stuff.

I'm fairly sure the only reason we've had so many "Company X invests in the UK" stories lately is because the government have been quietly telling these companies that the UK is going to become a tax haven after leaving the EU so they should all get in early to avoid it looking like they're only investing because of that.

We already had one of the lowest corporation tax rates in the developed world (I think it was *the* lowest in the G7). Combined with our highly educated workforce, English language and position between Europe and the US, I don't think we really need to make secret communications to foreign companies.
 

twobear

sputum-flecked apoplexy
Labour is 100% fucked.

To expand on that slightly...

- May just said that the agreement will go through the house. The Tory's majority is thin and the SNP and Lib Dems will oppose but Labour has a LOT of "Leave" constituencies. Even if they fully whip, it still requires some Tories to abstain or rebel, which *could* happen but...
- Even if it does fail to pass, it's considered a VoNC like losing a budget, May goes to the polls and absolutely stonks Corbyn to achieve an ~100 seat majority. It then passes with ease. So, eitherway, it's passing.
- Furthermore, Labour are in the unenviable position where they a) need to come up with their own position now and b) this plan will almost certainly involve a soft Brexit. This alienates the huge rafts of leave voters that would traditionally vote Labour, as well as Remain voters who see soft Brexit as throwing in the towel. They'll simultaneously suffer drains to the Lib Dems/Greens and UKIP from the same policy position!
- They have at least 2 years of this haemorrhaging of support to go before any general election is likely to take place.
- In one felled swoop the Tories have cut off a big part of UKIP's remaining allure by promising the end of free movement and a pretty unambiguously hard Brexit. Why still vote for a party who will never gain government? As such, less seats have the right vote split, whilst the left will be going several ways based on the voters' Leave or Remain stance.

For anyone aghast at hard Brexit but who still supports Corbyn, this is partially what happens when a government's main opposition comes from their own back benches.

Whatever Labour settle on as a plan, a good first step is..............actually settling on a plan. I personally think that trying to push a Remain strategy like the Lib Dems seem to be aiming for is a very poor idea. But their biggest issue right now is that absolutely nobody has a fucking clue what they want.

[edit] Ironically, I think that Labour's problem was basically diagnosed by Corbyn during the referendum merry go round, which is that it was a Referendum on Tory terms and the outcome is on Tory terms as well, which quite apart from Labour's ongoing omnishambles state has just let them stack the cards wholly in their favour with respect to the domestic political outcome.
 
Fuck, it's totally true, Labour literally have no option, asides from not being Labour anymore. If a general is called then there would have to be an unprecedented alliance to knock out the Conservatives.

Now I'm gonna sit here daydreaming that politicians would actually suck it up and follow through on such a plan.
Looking at tomorrow's headline in the Daily Mirror has shocked me . Even they seem to have washed their hands of Labour.
 

TimmmV

Member
Labour is 100% fucked.

To expand on that slightly...

- May just said that the agreement will go through the house. The Tory's majority is thin and the SNP and Lib Dems will oppose but Labour has a LOT of "Leave" constituencies. Even if they fully whip, it still requires some Tories to abstain or rebel, which *could* happen but...
- Even if it does fail to pass, it's considered a VoNC like losing a budget, May goes to the polls and absolutely stonks Corbyn to achieve an ~100 seat majority. It then passes with ease. So, eitherway, it's passing.
- Furthermore, Labour are in the unenviable position where they a) need to come up with their own position now and b) this plan will almost certainly involve a soft Brexit. This alienates the huge rafts of leave voters that would traditionally vote Labour, as well as Remain voters who see soft Brexit as throwing in the towel. They'll simultaneously suffer drains to the Lib Dems/Greens and UKIP from the same policy position!
- They have at least 2 years of this haemorrhaging of support to go before any general election is likely to take place.
- In one felled swoop the Tories have cut off a big part of UKIP's remaining allure by promising the end of free movement and a pretty unambiguously hard Brexit. Why still vote for a party who will never gain government? As such, less seats have the right vote split, whilst the left will be going several ways based on the voters' Leave or Remain stance.

For anyone aghast at hard Brexit but who still supports Corbyn, this is partially what happens when a Tory government's main opposition comes from their own back benches.

ftfy

But yes, Labour are both a joke and totally fucked at the moment. I see this as such a betrayal of left wing principles that it will be very difficult to ever vote for them again.
 

D4Danger

Unconfirmed Member
Whatever Labour settle on as a plan, a good first step is..............actually settling on a plan. I personally think that trying to push a Remain strategy like the Lib Dems seem to be aiming for is a very poor idea. But their biggest issue right now is that absolutely nobody has a fucking clue what they want.

Everyone has to wait for the government to come up with a plan first

Lib Dems are just talking bollocks because they know they'll never get in power
 
As a Lib Dem member/paper candidate/deliverer etc I am obviously biased, but I do think the current crisis presents a huge opportunity for us to forge a new path, and present a real, electable alternative to the Tories and Labour. Labour are screwed as long as they continue to provide no opposition over Brexit and fail to act as their voter's voices in Westminister.

Copeland and Stoke will be disasters for Corbyn. The question will be how bad those disasters will be.
 

Opto

Banned
"Don't punish us, please EU"

fucking really? You hard commit to a departure and don't want any of the negatives? jesus
 

Zaph

Member
Realistically, we are looking at the UK becoming a tax haven with diminished workers' rights in the next 5 years, aren't we...

It's likely. And they'll be in a position to heavily exploit visas to use the UK as a gateway to get less demanding skilled workers into an English speaking western country (one of the main reasons tech companies are doubling down here). In fact, this is going to be a hilariously ironic sticking point of most trade deals too.

London, and some of the south, will benefit, but really these companies will be based here mostly in name only, so we won't see as much supporting industries around the country benefit like they currently do from London.
 

iapetus

Scary Euro Man
Scottish independence now please. C'mon folks.. how people in Scotland could accept decades of super right wing Tory rule is beyond me.

May I suggest a brief moment of Scottish independence before reuniting the UK with Edinburgh as the capital? I got one would welcome our new SNP overlords.

If Scotland leaves, the rest of the UK is utterly fucked.
 

twobear

sputum-flecked apoplexy
As a Lib Dem member/paper candidate/deliverer etc I am obviously biased, but I do think the current crisis presents a huge opportunity for us to forge a new path, and present a real, electable alternative to the Tories and Labour. Labour are screwed as long as they continue to provide no opposition over Brexit and fail to act as their voter's voices in Westminister.

Copeland and Stoke will be disasters for Corbyn. The question will be how bad those disasters will be.

Well unlike Labour the Lib Dems probably aren't stuck between the scylla and charybdis of having a traditional support base that voted leave and a new(er) support base that voted remain, so by comparison it's very easy for them to put all their eggs in the 'it's not too late we can definitely have a second referendum and reverse the decision!' basket to scoop up some frankly slightly delusional Remain voters.

The fact that polling appears to show that a majority of people supported some combination of remain or soft Brexit views is very valuable to Labour right now, I think, because it shows that there's a workable and potentially popular 'the Tories have gone off the deep end with their Hard Brexit shenanigans' position for them to occupy. But my hope that current Labour are capable of doing that is at an all-time low.
 

PJV3

Member
I think In the long term the left will be fine, the tories might even end up regretting it more if shit hits the fan.
 

Maledict

Member
May I suggest a brief moment of Scottish independence before reuniting the UK with Edinburgh as the capital? I got one would welcome our new SNP overlords.

If Scotland leaves, the rest of the UK is utterly fucked.

Um, I really don't want to leave the EU, or for Scotland to leave the U.K., but how is the rest of the UK fucked if Scotland leaves?
 

Audioboxer

Member
Um, I really don't want to leave the EU, or for Scotland to leave the U.K., but how is the rest of the UK fucked if Scotland leaves?

You'll have to put up with annoying assholes like me celebrating. Even I couldn't handle that. lol.

Although while I celebrated I would happily say to everyone and anyone come join the party. If you can stick the cold there will be space for all.

But yeah the weather is pretty shite up here.
 
Guess it's kinda makes May look like she's accomplishing something? Feels pretty neutral to me be I might be missing something. Labour's complete absence of anything resembling a stance doesn't help.
It's as positive a headline as I can personally recall when it comes to the Mirror and a Tory.
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
Scotland leaving the UK would be even worse than Brexit. Scots would not like the resulting economic situation, and few would like the border (and there would have to be one if Scotland has EU free movement but what remains of the UK does not). Nobody wants a change in Northern Ireland and there could be simple checks on arrival in Britain.

But Scotland has a well-defined, uncontroversial, and much shorter border on the same island, resulting in easy access to large cities in England & Wales.

England_-_Scotland_border_-_geograph.org.uk_-_477405.jpg


The SNP might pretend like a hard border could never happen, but it could happen. Northern Ireland is a very special case with many people who feel Irish exclusively, and it's also a long, curving, meandering border. In fact it's much longer than it has to be because of the curves around Fermanagh in Northern Ireland and Monaghan in the Republic for example.

It'd really be unfortunate for one of the world's few real multinational states to break up, and indeed a margin of over 10% ensured it wouldn't barely over 2 years ago. I understand that this is a huge change in circumstances, but almost no place on Earth would allow another go just like that. If the majority the last time holds strong, then this should be the last independence referendum for a very, very long time, as no change in circumstances will likely ever be as significant as leaving the EU, not to mention Labour will eventually get a clue.

I'm not even dwelling about the past, rather there are huge, current ties in trade and the movement of people that would be damaged irreparably by Scotland leaving. Scotland leaving would be much worse than Brexit, for everybody. How do you replace that enormous amount of trade that Scotland does with and needs more (due to population and level of diversification) than the rUK? The EU can't replace the rest of the UK, which Scotland trades with multiples more, no matter what an opportunist would say about, well, opportunities elsewhere. In fact it sounds similar to Brexit....thinking you can replace that kind of trade overnight is foolishness, and that goes for everyone, and certainly the Leavers who caused this whole mess.

What about Trident? What happens in Northern Ireland...etc. The UK breaking up would not be fun, a new Scots Pound would not be pleasant, and this whole mess could easily have been avoided. If anything the EU was good at essentially disabling independence movements, as they could be block from getting in the European Union for a very long time, if ever, by any member, which encourages unity in member states. It's really ironic.
 

Lagamorph

Member
Whilst Scotland leaving the UK would definitely be bad for the rUK, it'd be far worse for Scotland, and would take Scotland a lot longer to recover. The economic situation Scotland would find itself in after independence would instantly disqualify it from joining the EU as it'd fail pretty much every economic test.
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
Whilst Scotland leaving the UK would definitely be bad for the rUK, it'd be far worse for Scotland, and would take Scotland a lot longer to recover. The economic situation Scotland would find itself in after independence would instantly disqualify it from joining the EU as it'd fail pretty much every economic test.

Yes, the UK breaking up would be good for nobody, and Scotland would be hurt worst because of population and the economic situation as you said. People don't realise that it'd be Brexit x10. Markets don't want it, pensioners don't want it, very young voters (who have to live with the situation the longest), women, and the middle class were pretty clear they don't want it in the last referendum.

There is also a very realistic scenario where there would have to be a hard border to prevent illegal immigration once Scotland were admitted. What reprecussions are there if Scotland doesn't agree to take on a small amount of debt? North Sea oil reserves are dwindling rapidly and that situation will not get better. The list of messy situations goes on.
 

PJV3

Member
I don't see Scotland going without real anger pushing them over the edge, so a completely fucked economic outlook or mental Tory tax schemes would be needed.

The timing is really tough to pull off independence quickly.
 

Audioboxer

Member
Brexit times 10? Cmon. That is a bit far fetched. How does every other independent country in the EU manage? Scotland is a rather small country and while it would be some initial tough times to try and say we couldn't be self-sustaining long term is a bit daft.

Hardly anywhere else operates like the UK. We are the exception, not the standard. The "rule Britania" egotistical hogwash around the UK gets annoying when it's constantly people sitting a top perches demanding those around them can't do shit without them.

The EU is currently waving at our asses brushing off May's threats and attempting to be big bully UK. Hopefully Scotland does that one day to fear mongers around it if we get the chance to rid ourselves of May and her sinking ship.
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
Brexit times 10? Cmon. That is a bit far fetched. How does every other independent country in the EU manage? Scotland is a rather small country and while it would be some initial tough times to try and say we couldn't be self-sustaining long term is a bit daft.

Hardly anywhere else operates like the UK. We are the exception, not the standard. The "rule Britania" egotistical hogwash around the UK gets annoying when it's constantly people sitting a top perches demanding those around them can't do shit without them.

The EU is currently waving at our asses brushing off May's threats and attempting to be big bully UK. Hopefully Scotland does that one day to fear mongers around it if we get the chance to rid ourselves of May and her sinking ship.

Nobody is saying Scotland can't do stuff without the rest of the UK, just that the consequences of leaving would be extremely unpleasant. Maybe x10 is hyperbole, but we're talking about another unpleasant situation, worse than Brexit, especially if there's no agreement on trade possible with Scotland's largest partner (the rUK).That would hurt Scotland far more just due to matters of population and diversification. It's not egotistical to point out that we have one unpleasant situation already due to a narrow majority, another would not be pleasant for anyone, not just in Scotland.

That moment when you realise you've just used the same argument as the "Leave" campaign

Nicola Sturgeon on BBC News: https://streamable.com/k0f3a

Yeah, because she has similar beliefs in a way, ignoring trade and other matters. Both movements were about "independence".
 

Audioboxer

Member
Nobody is saying Scotland can't do stuff without the rest of the UK, just that the consequences of leaving would be extremely unpleasant. Maybe x10 is hyperbole, but we're talking about another unpleasant situation, worse than Brexit, especially if there's no agreement on trade with Scotland's largest partner (the rUK).



Yeah, because she has similar beliefs in a way, ignoring trade and other matters. Both movements were about "independence".

I'm sure we could just take one out of May's book and say while we're going it alone now, you'll take our damn business because you want it ;)
 

Pancake Mix

Copied someone else's pancake recipe
I'm sure we could just take one out of May's book and say while we're going it alone now, you'll take our damn business because you want it ;)

It's not possible to continue prior arrangements or negotiate independent trade deals if your desire is to join the EU as soon as possible, assuming that a speedy time frame is possible which is extremely unlikely. That trade would be lost, effectively, to European single market tariffs. That's a lot of trade. It would hurt the rest of the UK a lot, but it would hurt Scotland even more. It would not be an enjoyable breakup for anyone.
 
May I suggest a brief moment of Scottish independence before reuniting the UK with Edinburgh as the capital? I got one would welcome our new SNP overlords.

If Scotland leaves, the rest of the UK is utterly fucked.

Scotland would be more fucked if they left the UK, how you going to get your deficit down from £15 billion, what currency and central bank are you going to use?

You export more to the UK than the EU and on top of that it would take years for you to join the EU if that was your goal.
 

Joni

Member
Is it normal to use such a small sample size?

It is a decent sample size. It is the manner in which they selected people that would not be representative.

There's no fast-track to a WTO deal - we crash out to WTO rules if no deal is made with the EU.

That gift aside, Oshikawa said it was likely that the U.K. would need to forge political consensus among more than 163 WTO members to agree its new “schedule” — the tariffs and subsidies that farmers, manufacturers and service companies would commit to after Brexit. By the time Britain leaves, new entrants such as Bosnia, Sudan and Comoros probably also will have a say in haggling over Britain’s terms.

That moment when you realise you've just used the same argument as the "Leave" campaign]

She should. The Leave campaign didn't shy away from Remain arguments when talking about the Scottish independence.
 

RenditMan

Banned
Posting in an easy format to point and laugh:
Hp0E2kX.jpg

Unfortunately the Germans getting too big for their boots in the EU are one of the reasons this has happened.

Merkel and chums thinks they are the Pied Piper of the EU and is one of the main reasons it's struggling.
 
It's also worth remembering that 4 out of 10 Scots voted to leave (just like 4 in 10 Londoners and 4 in 10 mackems voted to remain). By looking at regions as whole blocks we have lost a lot of granularity. Right now in Scotland there are millions of people happy with what's going on right now.
 

Burai

shitonmychest57
David Davis on Good Morning Britain talking about Singapore, South Africa or South Korea ("all the S'!" he chortled) as a model we could go for as they have great trade deals.

Yeah, Singapore, the tax haven red headed stepchild of the Far East. And with a GDP that's just 10% of ours, ranked 40th in the world.

Or South Africa, ranked 41st.

Or South Korea, ranked 11 with just over half of our GDP.

Amazing.
 

StayDead

Member
David Davis on Good Morning Britain talking about Singapore, South Africa or South Korea ("all the S'!" he chortled) as a model we could go for as they have great trade deals.

Yeah, Singapore, the tax haven red headed stepchild of the Far East. And with a GDP that's just 10% of ours, ranked 40th in the world.

Or South Africa, ranked 41st.

Or South Korea, ranked 11 with just over half of our GDP.

Amazing.

These people are beyond stupid. They literally don't care about the truth anymore. They've got their fingers in their ears pretending everything is fine.
 

kmag

Member
It's also worth remembering that 4 out of 10 Scots voted to leave (just like 4 in 10 Londoners and 4 in 10 mackems voted to remain). By looking at regions as whole blocks we have lost a lot of granularity. Right now in Scotland there are millions of people happy with what's going on right now.

It's worth remembering that 4.5 in 10 Scots didn't want to be tied to this mess in the first place. I keep hearing about the percentage of Scots who voted to leave the EU as if that's who we really should be paying attention to when we talk about Scotlands place in all of this, never really hear about the larger proportion of Scots who simply don't want to be part of right wing jerk off.
 

-Plasma Reus-

Service guarantees member status
People who support brexit are oddly doubtful about whether scotland should be independent of the UK and instead align itself with the european union as an equal partner with an equal voice.

Becoming independent from the rest of the UK would mean it would make its own laws, have a stronger international voice, take back control of its own borders, and do free trade with more countries than the rest of the uk would.
 
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