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[Huw_Dawson]

Weird double post.

 

[Godzilla's Left Toe]

He looks like Trump

 

[danowat]

No probs.

My home is worth £110, I put up a deposit of £10 and have a debt of £100 in the form of a mortgage. I have a salary of £20.

Now, imagine that there's high inflation, and that 2020 pounds are worth half what 2017 pounds are worth.

As long as my salary increases with inflation, I'll be getting paid twice the number of pounds in 2020 (i.e. a salary of £40). But! the mortgage debt is still fixed at £100!

So, the debt has reduced by half

So you've assumed your salary increases in line with inflation, and you haven't taken into account everything else that will also rise with inflation.

 

[JonnyDBrit]

Russians? Italians? Japanese?

I think Boris is a tool, but he didn't use the word Nazi (at least not in that quote).

A POW camp? Every participating country had them. Germany took them to beyond the next level, but still POW camps were a universal thing.

Almost every major film in pop culture that centered around POW and/or concentration camps had them run by the Nazis. Schindler's List and the Great Escape (the most literal thing Boris might be referencing here) were not exactly focused around the other Axis powers.

 

[SKINNER!]

I think more than 1% of people in the UK own homes lol

Heyoooooooooooooooooooo!

 

[Rodelero]

No probs.

My home is worth £110, I put up a deposit of £10 and have a debt of £100 in the form of a mortgage. I have a salary of £20.

Now, imagine that there's high inflation, and that 2020 pounds are worth half what 2017 pounds are worth.

As long as my salary increases with inflation, I'll be getting paid twice the number of pounds in 2020 (i.e. a salary of £40). But! the mortgage debt is still fixed at £100!

So, the debt has reduced by half

Seriously? You're one of the most prominent Brexit supporters (I'm not sure if you voted for it, but you certainly seem to be on the positive side of things). So, please, explain to me how inflation caused primarily by a fall in the currency leading to import costs rising leads to wage inflation in the importing nation.

The pound has fallen in value
We have to use more pounds to buy goods from outside of the UK than we used to

At what point does wage inflation occur in the UK? Product inflation and wage inflation are intimately related, but they are not necessarily linked. There are cases where one happens without the other.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

And you only ever holiday in the UK, I'd bet, so you don't care how low the pound goes. And you won't be putting money in savings accounts either, so you won't care that the value of your savings will decrease. And you exist entirely off of your allotment's carrots, so you don't care about fuel prices, the cost of food in supermarkets or anything like that. And your nice new house has its own private security team, so you don't care that inflation making things harder for your fellow Brits will lead to a rise in the chance of you being a victim of crime?

"I just bought a house so this means my mortgage will be cheaper" looks alright on paper, but if the pound doesn't recover soon, you are going to feel the impact no matter how nice your newly-bought ivory tower is.

I was mainly just responding to your assumption that I personally will be worse off with inflation. You can't just make those assumptions - there will be winners and losers in all scenarios.

And I get it, honestly. I'm in the US right now on a business trip and yeah, it feels pretty expensive with the recent changes in the exchange rate.

 

[RenditMan]

Almost every major film in pop culture that centered around POW and/or concentration camps had them run by the Nazis. Schindler's List and the Great Escape (the most literal thing Boris might be referencing here) were not exactly focused around the other Axis powers.

Whats films got to do with anything he was talking about WW2?

 

[Huw_Dawson]

I was mainly just responding to your assumption that I personally will be worse off with inflation. You can't just make those assumptions - there will be winners and losers in all scenarios.

And I get it, honestly. I'm in the US right now on a business trip and yeah, it feels pretty expensive with the recent changes in the exchange rate.

So you accept that you'll be financially worse off due to Brexit, or do you not?

Do you think the country will be financially worse off after Brexit, or do you not?

 

[GAMEPROFF]

Whats films got to do with anything he was talking about WW2?

Its obivious a reference to The Great Escape.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Escape_(film)

 

[Zaph]

Part of the reason it's difficult to be positive about Brexit, for me, is that I can barely listen to a Brexit supporter for a minute without them saying something that implies a severe lack of understanding. Your comment here, for example...

Yup. Brexit would be much less of a bitter pill to swallow if there was at least some expertise on the other side - even an 80/20 split would do.

But whenever a Brexiter opens their mouth, at best it's a complete misunderstanding of economics and politics (but usually spouted with an incredible confidence), at worst it's just nationalistic garbage.

 

[RenditMan]

And you only ever holiday in the UK, I'd bet, so you don't care how low the pound goes. And you won't be putting money in savings accounts either, so you won't care that the value of your savings will decrease. And you exist entirely off of your allotment's carrots, so you don't care about fuel prices, the cost of food in supermarkets or anything like that. And your nice new house has its own private security team, so you don't care that inflation making things harder for your fellow Brits will lead to a rise in the chance of you being a victim of crime?

"I just bought a house so this means my mortgage will be cheaper" looks alright on paper, but if the pound doesn't recover soon, you are going to feel the impact no matter how nice your newly-bought ivory tower is.

Inflations at 1.6% why are you even thinking about that stuff?

 

[Goodlife]

PMQs is on. I'm sure Jeremy will talk about the NHS instead of Brexit.

As he should

 

[RenditMan]

Its obivious a reference to The Great Escape.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Escape_(film)

Right so from BJ's quote I need to infer in my own head that:

He's talking about films, not WW2 as he actually stated.
Specifically Nazi films, not films with Japanese, Italians, Russians, specifically Nazi.
From there I've got to think about the Great Escape.

Now I can get offended?

Is this how it really works?

 

[fanboi]

I think BoJo is referring to the constant calls from Francis Hollande that the UK should be punished. Which he has multiple times. I'm going against Gaf on and say I agree with him. Why punish the UK? It's everyone's interest to get a good deal.

GbpvsUsd is pricing in a hard Brexit now. Once Art.50 is triggered it'll be interesting to see where investors think the UK is heading. I feel that might be bullish.

I don't understand the posts that the UK is an embarrassment ATM. Sure after the Ref there was a lot going on but right now the UK is starting to show its strength and I'm feeling optimistic about the future. If anything I feel that the EU (Hollande) had been more embarrassing lol

Well as I see it they also need to set an example to prevent this in the future so it isn't as easy to just say everyone should have a good deal.

 

[chadskin]

- 'If we can cope with World War Two, we'll cope with this': David Davis DISMISSES fears government is not ready for Brexit showdown with the EU

Everything is World War Two.

 

[gofreak]

I think BoJo is referring to the constant calls from Francis Hollande that the UK should be punished. Which he has multiple times. I'm going against Gaf on and say I agree with him. Why punish the UK? It's everyone's interest to get a good deal.

I agree on your last point, but there's something about the way this is being coloured by UK politicians that feels a bit hypocritical, or conveniently forgetful. If there are calls for punitive consequences for the UK, perhaps it's because the UK has initiated a punishing move in the first place, for both itself and the EU? Of course I don't expect UK politicians to acknowledge this or spell this out so flatly, but the UK has initiated this mess, has chosen to withdraw from the benefits of EU membership, and colouring negative consequences of that as 'punishment', just feels like trying to shame EU negotiators into giving the UK a deal that could fundamentally undermine many of the purposes of EU membership. They can't be expected to do that - it has nothing even to do with retaliation or punishment...the withdrawal of benefits that won't necessarily come back is something the UK has opted for. Wanting the goodies all back on its own terms would be punishment and a humiliation for the EU.

Part of the UK negotiating tactic seems to be one of shaming and evoking 'good friends don't do xyz' with a total blind eye to what the UK has done here to the EU and to itself. The EU could equally play this game in the popular press if it wanted. But that's a stupid, manipulative game of sentiment to get the masses on side to 'blame' the EU for whatever ill may come from all this.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

So you accept that you'll be financially worse off due to Brexit, or do you not?

Well, this question looks simple but it's really pretty difficult to answer, wouldn't you agree? I think the best I can say is that I'm in a reasonably good position right now, and that I feel that I probably will be better off in future. What I can say is that a bit of inflation doesn't scare me.

Do you think the country will be financially worse off after Brexit, or do you not?

Even more difficult to answer!

 

[autumnleaf]

I wish those stupid Tories would just do their bloody job instead of trying to turn everything into an insult or one-liner. They act like a bunch of children.

 

[GAMEPROFF]

Now I can get offended?

Is this how it really works?

If you are fine with him compare the EU with the Nazis you dont need to get offended.

I am btw not british and not offended, I just take this as another proof that BJ is a very big idiot.

 

[RenditMan]

If you are fine with him compare the EU with the Nazis you dont need to get offended.

I am btw not british and not offended, I just take this as another proof that BJ is a very big idiot.

I don't think I've got the mental gymnastic abilities to get to where you are, but by all means feel free if it floats your boat.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

Inflations at 1.6% why are you even thinking about that stuff?

Inflation is expected to rise by a percent to 2.75% this year according to the BoE - although they expect it to drop back down to 2.25% by 2019. Figure from the latest BoE inflation report in November.

More alarmist think tanks have pegged that number quite a bit higher - nevertheless, it is likely that inflation will rise as we trigger A50 - but also due to things like oil prices rising.

Well, this question looks simple but it's really pretty difficult to answer, wouldn't you agree? I think the best I can say is that I'm in a reasonably good position right now, and that I feel that I probably will be better off in future. What I can say is that a bit of inflation doesn't scare me.

Even more difficult to answer!

Considering that you are one of the continual pro-Brexit voices on this forum, your non-response is an absence that speaks like thunder about Brexit, I think.

 

[Rodelero]

Well, this question looks simple but it's really pretty difficult to answer, wouldn't you agree? I think the best I can say is that I'm in a reasonably good position right now, and that I feel that I probably will be better off in future. What I can say is that a bit of inflation doesn't scare me.

Much easier to say on the housing ladder than off it.

 

[RenditMan]

Well, this question looks simple but it's really pretty difficult to answer, wouldn't you agree? I think the best I can say is that I'm in a reasonably good position right now, and that I feel that I probably will be better off in future. What I can say is that a bit of inflation doesn't scare me.



Even more difficult to answer!

It'll be fun once we start to boom and the interest rates start to normalise. There'll be some squeezed pips then I think.

Panicking over a tiny bit of inflation or a slightly low quid will be a distant memory.

Inflation is expected to rise by a percent to 2.75% this year according to the BoE - although they expect it to drop back down to 2.25% by 2019. Figure from the latest BoE inflation report in November.

More alarmist think tanks have pegged that number quite a bit higher - nevertheless, it is likely that inflation will rise as we trigger A50 - but also due to things like oil prices rising.

2.75% is nothing. The economy over the last decade with incredibly low interest / inflation is not normal, whilst a lot it appears, seems to think it is. What you need to remember is interest is near zero, there's plenty of scope to pull levers to calm down inflation if needed.

 

[Lagamorph]

We definitely need clarification now on if Article 50 can be revoked once triggered.

 

[GAMEPROFF]

I don't think I've got the mental gymnastic abilities to get to where you are, but by all means feel free if it floats your boat.

Either that or you just dont want to see it that way and make strange execuses about films and stuff

 

[GamingKaiju]

Well as I see it they also need to set an example to prevent this in the future so it isn't as easy to just say everyone should have a good deal.

Prevent others leaving the EU I guess your talking about?

The EU needs to reform badly even moreso after Brexit. I hope the EU does take some time to self reflect after Brexit so it can reform to stop others leaving.

Watching Jezzer on PMQ's is hilarious he isn't PM material lol

 

[chadskin]

Even the Daily Mail recognizes...

- Boris Johnson compares threat of French 'punishment beatings' over Brexit to NAZI treatment of WWII prisoners

 

[GAMEPROFF]

Even the Daily Mail recognizes...

- Boris Johnson compares threat of French 'punishment beatings' over Brexit to NAZI treatment of WWII prisoners

Daily Mail to make mental gymnastics confirmed

 

[QuicheFontaine]

So you've assumed your salary increases in line with inflation, and you haven't taken into account everything else that will also rise with inflation.

I mean, you have to make some assumptions, right? The one about salary increases is a pretty safe one for me as I've never had a below-inflation pay rise so far, and I'm at a good point in my career.

 

[RenditMan]

Either that or you just dont want to see it that way and make strange execuses about films and stuff

Errr.

What?

Even the Daily Mail recognizes...

- Boris Johnson compares threat of French 'punishment beatings' over Brexit to NAZI treatment of WWII prisoners

Daily Mail regularly exercises the mental gymnastics needed to infer that though, they are used to it.Are some saying that they agree with the Daily Mail now?

 

[twobear]

The Brexit cabinet's obsession with WW2 rhetoric is desperate and more than a bit sad.

 

[autumnleaf]

We definitely need clarification now on if Article 50 can be revoked once triggered.

I don't think anyone actually knows as no one ever thought it would be invoked so never thought about it I think in the Supreme Court case they went on the assumption it couldn't, I imagine in reality it could be revoked if the other 27 members agreed.

 

[Lagamorph]

I don't think anyone actually knows as no one ever thought it would be invoked so never thought about it I think in the Supreme Court case they went on the assumption it couldn't, I imagine in reality it could be revoked if the other 27 members agreed.

It's something that needs to go through the European courts really.
The original author seems to think it can be, without the agreement of all member states, but it's a question that needs answering sooner rather than later.

 

[fanboi]

Prevent others leaving the EU I guess your talking about?

The EU needs to reform badly even moreso after Brexit. I hope the EU does take some time to self reflect after Brexit so it can reform to stop others leaving.

Watching Jezzer on PMQ's is hilarious he isn't PM material lol

Yes they need to change, but leaving is not the correct way to go.

And with UK gone I guess it can become easier.

 

[GamingKaiju]

I agree on your last point, but there's something about the way this is being coloured by UK politicians that feels a bit hypocritical, or conveniently forgetful. If there are calls for punitive consequences for the UK, perhaps it's because the UK has initiated a punishing move in the first place, for both itself and the EU? Of course I don't expect UK politicians to acknowledge this or spell this out so flatly, but the UK has initiated this mess, has chosen to withdraw from the benefits of EU membership, and colouring negative consequences of that as 'punishment', just feels like trying to shame EU negotiators into giving the UK a deal that could fundamentally undermine many of the purposes of EU membership. They can't be expected to do that - it has nothing even to do with retaliation or punishment...the withdrawal of benefits that won't necessarily come back is something the UK has opted for. Wanting the goodies all back on its own terms would be punishment and a humiliation for the EU.

Part of the UK negotiating tactic seems to be one of shaming and evoking 'good friends don't do xyz' with a total blind eye to what the UK has done here to the EU and to itself. The EU could equally play this game in the popular press if it wanted. But that's a stupid, manipulative game of sentiment to get the masses on side to 'blame' the EU for whatever ill may come from all this.

I 100% agree the UK has only brought this on it self and sadly may have damaged the EU after Brexit losing 10billion a year. But I feel that the EU does need to reform and it's constant stubbornness pushed the people of the UK to vote leave.

 

[Xando]

We definitely need clarification now on if Article 50 can be revoked once triggered.

If it would be possible it certainly need agreement of all 28 members.


Then again i'm certain May will leave with or without any deal because she's too afraid of UKIP and the media.

 

[RenditMan]

The Brexit cabinet's obsession with WW2 rhetoric is desperate and more than a bit sad.

Its been mentioned twice by two different people.

Once to make the point that a government has dealt with difficult issues before.

Once to make a point that the EU is extremely hard to leave.

 

[autumnleaf]

Then again i'm certain May will leave with or without any deal because she's too afraid of UKIP and the media.

Ain't that the truth. A country ran by the Daily Mail and the Sun, what a sad time.

 

[Stiflers Mom]

I agree on your last point, but there's something about the way this is being coloured by UK politicians that feels a bit hypocritical, or conveniently forgetful. If there are calls for punitive consequences for the UK, perhaps it's because the UK has initiated a punishing move in the first place, for both itself and the EU? Of course I don't expect UK politicians to acknowledge this or spell this out so flatly, but the UK has initiated this mess, has chosen to withdraw from the benefits of EU membership, and colouring negative consequences of that as 'punishment', just feels like trying to shame EU negotiators into giving the UK a deal that could fundamentally undermine many of the purposes of EU membership. They can't be expected to do that - it has nothing even to do with retaliation or punishment...the withdrawal of benefits that won't necessarily come back is something the UK has opted for. Wanting the goodies all back on its own terms would be punishment and a humiliation for the EU.

Part of the UK negotiating tactic seems to be one of shaming and evoking 'good friends don't do xyz' with a total blind eye to what the UK has done here to the EU and to itself. The EU could equally play this game in the popular press if it wanted. But that's a stupid, manipulative game of sentiment to get the masses on side to 'blame' the EU for whatever ill may come from all this.

This, exactly...

They wanted to get away from the EU. They got their will.
Now take the consequences..

If they treat the UK like nothing happened, what's the purpose of staying in there?

 

[Rodelero]

I mean, you have to make some assumptions, right? The one about salary increases is a pretty safe one for me as I've never had a below-inflation pay rise so far, and I'm at a good point in my career.

But, quite importantly, this isn't wage inflation.

As you move through your career, you will tend to find that your wages go up. This will be due to numerous effects, including wage inflation, but also due to your increasing experience and importance to the company as you move from being a junior member of staff towards being a senior member of staff. Your wages will rise, especially early on in your career, even if wage inflation is low (or even negative) to reflect your growth.

Here's an example.

Let's say I join a company in 2015, and make £20,000 in the first year. At the end of year review, my salary is increased by 10% to £22,000. Does this indicate that 10% wage inflation has occurred? Absolutely not. It indicates that I have proven myself, and become an important part of the company that they want to reward and keep around. What indicates wage inflation is when the new person they hire in 2016 into the same role (who is, for the purpose of the example, a replica of me one year previous), is on £20,500 rather than £20,000. This reflects that it is becoming more expensive, over time, to employ the same quality of staff.

In product terms, if a loaf of bread doesn't change and gets more expensive it indicates inflation. If a loaf of bread gets bigger and gets more expensive... it doesn't.

 

[GamingKaiju]

Yes they need to change, but leaving is not the correct way to go.

And with UK gone I guess it can become easier.

Leaving is not the answer.

But when the UK can't deport a known advocate of radical islam, possible links to terror cells and sponges of the state after 3 successive groverments tried to deport because of the EU High Court ruled we can't then damn right there is a problem.

I feel sadly that they won't reform.

 

[ittoryu]

Meanwhile, in the real world, the speech was generally well received, the pound went up and everyone moaning that the government weren't giving enough detail now have it.

Coincidentally, unemployment also went down by 50,000.

The level of gloom in these Brexit threads never ceases to amaze and amuse me.

Unemployment has nothing to do with the speech.
Well received?
Sure, few examples:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...vers-may-s-threats-overplay-u-k-s-brexit-hand
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/18/theresa-may-brexit-plan-disastrous-gaps-labour
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...l-readers-react-to-theresa-mays-brexit-speech
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/17/theresa-may-britain-prime-minister-speech
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...jobs-and-services_uk_587f4876e4b0831b7c6e306a

If you refer with "The Real World" as Daily mail then yes, it has been well received.

Me too. People posting the live USD/GBP rate are going to end up looking as daft as everyone pointing at the FTSE 100 the week after the referendum.

Of course
You bought the house, so everything is fine.

 

[Burai]

Leaving is not the answer.

But when the UK can't deport a known advocate of radical islam, possible links to terror cells and sponges of the state after 3 successive groverments tried to deport because of the EU High Court ruled we can't then damn right there is a problem.

I feel sadly that they won't reform.

That problem doesn't go away though. The press might like to simplify the idea of deportation, but even if we have full control it doesn't make it any easier.

When we deport criminals we don't just put them on a plane and wave goodbye. We still have to make a deal with the country we are sending them to because, amazingly, most countries don't like having convicted terrorists to deal with, even if they are their own people.

 

[RenditMan]

But, quite importantly, this isn't wage inflation.

As you move through your career, you will tend to find that your wages go up. This will be due to numerous effects, including wage inflation, but also due to your increasing experience and importance to the company as you move from being a junior member of staff towards being a senior member of staff. Your wages will rise, especially early on in your career, even if wage inflation is low (or even negative) to reflect your growth.

Here's an example.

Let's say I join a company in 2015, and make £20,000 in the first year. At the end of year review, my salary is increased by 10% to £22,000. Does this indicate that 10% wage inflation has occurred? Absolutely not. It indicates that I have proven myself, and become an important part of the company that they want to reward and keep around. What indicates wage inflation is when the new person they hire in 2016 into the same role (who is, for the purpose of the example, a replica of me one year previous), is on £20,500 rather than £20,000. This reflects that it is becoming more expensive, over time, to employ the same quality of staff.

In product terms, if a loaf of bread doesn't change and gets more expensive it indicates inflation. If a loaf of bread gets bigger and gets more expensive... it doesn't.

Wages rise naturally when employers struggle to fill roles due to market competition.

 

[kmag]

It'll be fun once we start to boom and the interest rates start to normalise. There'll be some squeezed pips then I think.

Panicking over a tiny bit of inflation or a slightly low quid will be a distant memory.



2.75% is nothing. The economy over the last decade with incredibly low interest / inflation is not normal, whilst a lot it appears, seems to think it is. What you need to remember is interest is near zero, there's plenty of scope to pull levers to calm down inflation if needed.

2.75% isn't nothing in the context of the wage shock since 2008.

And while there's a lot of scope to increase interest rates you've got to wonder what the impact will be on an economy which is propped up by record amounts of consumer debt.

 

[RenditMan]

Unemployment has nothing to do with the speech.
Well received?
Sure, few examples:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...vers-may-s-threats-overplay-u-k-s-brexit-hand
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/18/theresa-may-brexit-plan-disastrous-gaps-labour
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...l-readers-react-to-theresa-mays-brexit-speech
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/17/theresa-may-britain-prime-minister-speech
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...jobs-and-services_uk_587f4876e4b0831b7c6e306a

If you refer with "The Real World" as Daily mail then yes, it has been well received.



Of course
You bought the house, so everything is fine.

You'll never get leftie publications to agree with anything the Tories do, same as the Mail will never agree with Corbyn

 

[GamingKaiju]

That problem doesn't go away though. The press might like to simplify the idea of deportation, but even if we have full control it doesn't make it any easier.

When we deport criminals we don't just put them on a plane and wave goodbye. We still have to make a deal with the country we are sending them to because, amazingly, most countries don't like having convicted terrorists to deal with, even if they are their own people.

Jordan requested the deport of Abu Quatar and had guarantees that he would not be excuted but the EU said we couldn't.

 

[ittoryu]

You'll never get leftie publications to agree with anything the Tories do, same as the Mail will never agree with Corbyn

JPMorgan surely is a leftie publication.

 

[RenditMan]

2.75% isn't nothing in the context of the wage shock since 2008.

And while there's a lot of scope to increase interest rates you've got to wonder what the impact will be on an economy which is propped up by record amounts of consumer debt.

Raising Interest rates will do what its designed to do which is reduce the rate of growth and encourage more saving.

Those on the cliff edge will be pushed off. Here's the rub, no matter which economic lever gets pulled, there will always be those on the cliff edge that get pushed off due to it.