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Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 could boost Game Pass subscribers by 2.5m to 4m, says analysts

Punished Miku

Human Rights Subscription Service
On xbox the cost isn't that much more than buying the game and core. IF you only play COD but have kids in the house for example its a great deal.
I did this breakdown the other day too. If you only play CoD every year on PS, that's 70 + 80 for the low tier of PS+. GPU is $54 more than that a year, so $4.50 a month to get an additional 150+ rentals, some lasting for a year. Literally cheaper than renting 1 game a month from Blockbuster 30 years ago and you only kept the game for 2 days.
 

Unknown?

Member
On xbox the cost isn't that much more than buying the game and core. IF you only play COD but have kids in the house for example its a great deal.
It is, I just don't think the average casual will care. Otherwise these COD players would have tons of other games but the hardcore COD player only gets COD and maybe 2-3 other games and paying for tons of games you have no interest in isn't enticing. They would have done gamefly in the US, but they didn't.

I did this breakdown the other day too. If you only play CoD every year on PS, that's 70 + 80 for the low tier of PS+. GPU is $54 more than that a year, so $4.50 a month to get an additional 150+ rentals, some lasting for a year. Literally cheaper than renting 1 game a month from Blockbuster 30 years ago and you only kept the game for 2 days.
And of those 150+ rentals probably only interest in 2% of them for the majority of casuals. GP is better towards hardcore gamers.
 
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clarky

Gold Member
It is, I just don't think the average casual will care. Otherwise these COD players would have tons of other games but the hardcore COD player only gets COD and maybe 2-3 other games and paying for tons of games you have no interest in isn't enticing. They would have done gamefly in the US, but they didn't.
We'll find out in under a year.

Personally i think they are crazy. I'd drop this on gamepass 2-4 weeks before Christmas and advertise and bundle the shit out of it. That way you get the hardcore day one players buying the game and get chance to actually shift some hardware units. You need to have released the game a bit earlier than this week for this strategy though.
 
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Why would that majority of CoD players, who only buy CoD a year, pay over 3 times the price of the game to play it for a year? Doesn't make sense.
 

clarky

Gold Member
Why would that majority of CoD players, who only buy CoD a year, pay over 3 times the price of the game to play it for a year? Doesn't make sense.
Because its not 3 times the price?

And those COD players who only play COD number around 5% of the 30 odd million MAU. As per the Acquisitions leaks.
 
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sainraja

Member
There are shit loads of 80+ and quite a lot of 90+ games on Gamepass. The library is great, its MS' own offerings, the day one stuff that is severely lacking.

You've got to remember most people are not like us when it comes to consuming Videogames.


Edit : beaten by @twilo99
The day one aspect of Game Pass (IMO) is just a surface level benefit because no where else outside of gaming, do people even care if something is day one or day 6 on a sub service (or am I completely wrong on this? lol), they simply care about if it is there. Another issue, if you are going to highlight it as a big benefit, is that you have to keep feeding "it", the cycle has to be consistent and regular enough for people to notice. I think the only reason people make a big deal out of this is because of the nature of the gaming industry and "console" wars. If company A isn't doing what Company B is or vice versa, people latch on to that difference and highlight it.

So, I am not sure if the day one aspect has been holding people at bay when it comes to Game Pass. People who are like us might care... and your comment about most people are not like us speaks to this. Another challenge nowadays is that almost everything has become a subscription service, where it is starting to become like those TV cable packages...so people might be more choosey when it comes to subs.... anyway I don't think it is a straight-forward thing where a single thing is going to help or hurt. It's a bunch of things.
 
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Fabieter

Member
When's the last time you heard someone else say "pricing on this day 1 AAA game is a dream come true"?

People can show support if they sub and play CoD, Stalker 2, Nine Sols, Indiana Jones, Avowed day 1 and 2 dozen other games (plus the other 300 already on there) over the next 4 months for the cost of 1 game. Or people can brag about paying as little as possible and canceling after a month, but it will eventually just kill the service at some point. No one else is going to offer this so it's going to be up consumers to show that they reward someone looking to offer a good deal, or they can own goal themselves yet again. Guess we'll see.

Sp people are in the wrong for dont want subs in gaming?
 

rm082e

Member
is this the same profesional analyst that called games, incels?🤮

Yep: Michael Patcher: SW Outlaws tanking is a "rare incel victory"

“We believe Star Wars Outlaws was impacted by a coordinated effort that sought to troll Ubisoft games specifically and Star Wars content in general,” wrote Michael Pachter of Wedbush in an analyst’s note. “This is a case of a rare incel victory that led to Ubisoft having to take down its numbers.”

It's weird for me seeing this stuff from him. Back ten years ago when he had the Pach Attack! show on Gametrailers, he was more focused on explaining the business concepts, data, and decisions behind the gaming market to gamers who didn't have the insight. Maybe my memory is rose-tinted, but I don't remember him making nearly as many predictions that were multiple quarters into the future.

Now it seems like that's increasingly his bread and butter, and he clearly has lost touch with the people he used to rely on who had their fingers on the pulse of the gaming audience. Back then, he wasn't informed, but he seemed like he was getting the word from a collection of people and then distilling their opinions down into a summary that he could share. That's gone now and he's just extra sure his terrible takes are spot on.
 

Lupin25

Member
Stay subbed for 1 game? What’s keeping someone from saving up for it in a few months tho?

That’s the main problem for gaming subscriptions. Retention.

If MS had multiple big AAA games per year, the discussion would change.
 
Because its not 3 times the price?

And those COD players who only play COD number around 5% of the 30 odd million MAU. As per the Acquisitions leaks.
It costs $70 to buy CoD outright. It costs $240 to play CoD a year on Game Pass Ultimate. You're right, it's not 3 times the price it's over that.
 

clarky

Gold Member
It costs $70 to buy CoD outright. It costs $240 to play CoD a year on Game Pass Ultimate. You're right, it's not 3 times the price it's over that.
You need ps plus or game pass core on top of that mate. I know im right no need to get arsey.
 
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Danny Dudekisser

I paid good money for this Dynex!
That's really exciting - you're converting $70-100 sales into $20 sales. Because you know you're not going to retain most of those customers, and then you've continued to train people to not expect to pay for games on your platform.

The consequences of all of this were obvious, but the fact that they're giving us a demonstration of how to destroy your revenue streams like we're in an interactive business school is downright charitable of them.
 

Kvally

Member
Great news for sure then, if true.
It will slightly move the needle on GP subs temporarily, while completely cannibalizing their sales on the Xbox platform. Most of the people who would be interested in playing COD that own an Xbox likely already have a GP sub anyway, so I don't see this moving the needle much at all.
GP is only 10-15% of the revenue from game content on Xbox. You forgot about the other 85-90% of the consumer revenue from game purchases. The vast minority of people on Xbox have Game Pass.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Pachter is always wrong, but he might be right here, for a month or two.
People that don't play CoD religiously could pay $12 for PC GamePass and just play the hell out of it for a month.

The question is...............will MS announce GP sub numbers in Q1 2025?
 
I would think they'd advertise that, if nothing else. No idea what they're doing. I don't use Prime or Firestick.
Im pretty sure I saw it on mine for a week or two.

I just think anyone who is into gaming enough to pay $20 a month most likely already has a dedicated gaming device. Maybe I’m wrong but I’ve just given up on the idea subs even work for gaming. I game all the time with all kinds of games and even I’m not really into it.

Literally the most I get out of them is trying games I didn’t think I would like and finding out I’m right. Death Stranding was the one exception.
 

Punished Miku

Human Rights Subscription Service
Im pretty sure I saw it on mine for a week or two.

I just think anyone who is into gaming enough to pay $20 a month most likely already has a dedicated gaming device. Maybe I’m wrong but I’ve just given up on the idea subs even work for gaming. I game all the time with all kinds of games and even I’m not really into it.

Literally the most I get out of them is trying games I didn’t think I would like and finding out I’m right. Death Stranding was the one exception.
I do think it needs to be cheaper to get more casual gamers in. $20 is pretty much the absolute max, so yeah I'm not really all that optimistic it's going to move the needle much. It was fun while it lasted though. Guess we'll see.
 

poppabk

Cheeks Spread for Digital Only Future
It will slightly move the needle on GP subs temporarily, while completely cannibalizing their sales on the Xbox platform. Most of the people who would be interested in playing COD that own an Xbox likely already have a GP sub anyway, so I don't see this moving the needle much at all.


My prediction :
friends sleep GIF
You have to remember that digital add-ons are a big chunk of revenue. By making this a paid 'free to play' game for gamepass users they will likely increase the number of people willing to pay for vault edition or other add-ons etc.
yRJOxur.jpeg
 

Sethbacca

Member
You have to remember that digital add-ons are a big chunk of revenue. By making this a paid 'free to play' game for gamepass users they will likely increase the number of people willing to pay for vault edition or other add-ons etc.
I guess we'll see, but my gut tells me this isn't gonna move the needle still.
 

sainraja

Member
Im pretty sure I saw it on mine for a week or two.

I just think anyone who is into gaming enough to pay $20 a month most likely already has a dedicated gaming device. Maybe I’m wrong but I’ve just given up on the idea subs even work for gaming. I game all the time with all kinds of games and even I’m not really into it.

Literally the most I get out of them is trying games I didn’t think I would like and finding out I’m right. Death Stranding was the one exception.
Same.. I found it useful to confirm games that I thought I wouldn't like. I only have the basic sub now for Playstation that is needed for playing online and I let my Game Pass sub expire since Destiny is F2P (this is the main game I play online on both systems and Helldivers 2 on the PS5). If there is a game I find interesting I just buy that but these companies are working hard to move us away from thinking that we own any content that we buy (I know we technically don't but it has always felt like we do and with subs there is no illusion of ownership left at all lol).
 
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Same.. I found it useful to confirm games that I thought I wouldn't like. I only have the basic sub now for Playstation that is needed for playing online and I let my Game Pass sub expire since Destiny is F2P (this is the main game I play online on both systems and Helldivers 2 on the PS5). If there is a game I find interesting I just buy that but these companies are working hard to move us away from thinking that we own any content that we buy (I know we technically don't but it has always felt like we do and with subs there is no illusion of ownership left at all lol).

Yep I still have PS+ and once it runs out I'm done with it. I knew it was a mistake to sign back up but when I was renewing my basic membership I was to tempted to sign back up and did it. A month or two later I regretted it. Wont make that mistake again.
 
Thats the rub isn't it. I don't think its make or break, but certainly wont see another COD on the service day one if this doesn't move the needle significantly and permanently.

Warzone and COD Coexist in my experience, most Warzone players use MP to level the guns. Might be worth a Sub instead. Who knows......


Super interested myself to see how this all plays out.

If COD doesn't do anything for GP I think it'll be more than just COD not going in there anymore. It'll probably be all the big games, especially those with multiplat releases (which is shaping up to be all of them). The smaller stuff like Pentiment or Avowed, those would still be Day 1, but the CODs/DOOMs/TES etc. won't.

OTOH, I think it'd be the best excuse for MS to try a VOD-based rental model for big games individually. So maybe you just pay $25 or $30 to rent the next COD if you have an active GP subscription. And you just "rent" it for as long as you have the subscription active. You lapse and you lose access, like it already does.

But I don't think it would work without major changes to the service; they'd have to restructure the tiers at the upper ends and bring the prices down across the board. Then lean into the service as basically existing for free perks, discounts, games-on-demand rentals and such.

Starfield did not turn out to be what they hoped. And there is a cost to that.

But it was Game of the Generation™ 😁🤣

Awful take.

Anybody new to the Xbox can dine for years on the contents of GamePass. It’s only not worth it if you happen to own most of the big hitters on it, or they don’t tickle your fancy, or you have no interest in what’s upcoming in the very near future.

Depends on the price tolerance threshold of those new customers. MS just got rid of the $1 deal. They've limited stacking and will probably eliminate that in a year or so. The price went up across all tiers.

You'd have to be a new gamer who just really likes indie games and most AA to pay for Game Pass long-term, and then eventually take a liking to more of MS's 1P AAA offerings. Ironically I think Game Pass would probably do better if it had more of a focus on indies and mobile-style indie/AA games that have a lot of MTX. Or just gutting Day 1 releases altogether and going with a VOD-like per-game access model. Just use Game Pass itself as a big perks-driven service (and lower the costs down to reflect that).

Maybe that's what they're going to do in a few years, who knows.

I think it's all about Firestick personally and mobile. They just increased their potential cloud install base overnight by 200+ million just from the Firestick app addition, which is Netflix numbers. People still have to sign up, but they want to see if people are going to give it a shot. If even 5 million new people signed up on Amazon which is just 2.5%, it would be a huge gain. There's zero indication that is going to happen, but you never know.

Most sub services are limping along, but Netflix is still dominant because they got there first and then managed to keep it going. Everything they're doing is 100% logical. The rest is just up to consumers to decide what they want to do. People don't need an Xbox, or even an Xbox controller. They can use a dual shock if they want and try out the big holiday games for very cheap.

This is what competition looks like when you're not just paying to keep things off other systems, which does work, but isn't adding anything. They're gambling on trying to get new customers and grow the gaming pool, which by all indications has been shrinking lately.

OK, so you're of the mind that this gamble with COD on Game Pass is to tap into Firestick subscribers? Well okay, maybe that's the driving factor. But, it still leaves a lot of doubt.

Just how many people accessing Game Pass through a Firestick care about playing COD? I just don't see the audience overlap. Now if it were a new Candy Crush, I could see the appeal to a Firestick audience immediately, because I think they're the casual & mainstream (borderline non-gaming) types who'd be more into a game like CC over COD. Those interested in COD, at the very least, are probably gonna have a smartphone for Warzone.

Meanwhile, those who want to play COD more seriously will have a console or PC. Now, if the cloud experience added a seamless QOL feature to the game for console & PC users (or even mobile users), or it were a different COD only possible through the cloud, I could see that Firestick audience showing up. But AFAIK, there is no appeal in the value like that. So I'm just so sure GP being accessible through the Firestick is going to lead to any substantive subscriber boost.

To that last point you made tho...well 😐. I mean yeah the gaming pool has shrunk but it's really one console in particular mostly contributing to that. I think we both know that console's name. Though I'm not gonna ignore things like PS losing market share to PC in Japan, either.
 
Awful take.

Anybody new to the Xbox can dine for years on the contents of GamePass. It’s only not worth it if you happen to own most of the big hitters on it, or they don’t tickle your fancy, or you have no interest in what’s upcoming in the very near future.
New to Xbox lol. Their first party output has been dire for years and they've hardly been getting big 3rd parties on it either. What exactly are people going to dine on? I was still subbed when the big hitter redfall released.
 

BigLee74

Member
New to Xbox lol. Their first party output has been dire for years and they've hardly been getting big 3rd parties on it either. What exactly are people going to dine on? I was still subbed when the big hitter redfall released.
You’re really trying to tell me that someone who is new to Xbox/skipped a gen or two won’t find great games on game pass?

Give your head a wobble! 😂
 

Ozriel

M$FT
Why would that majority of CoD players, who only buy CoD a year, pay over 3 times the price of the game to play it for a year? Doesn't make sense.

Why do you people always forget to include the price of the online sub when you make this comparison?

Pachter is always wrong, but he might be right here, for a month or two.
People that don't play CoD religiously could pay $12 for PC GamePass and just play the hell out of it for a month.

It’s always ‘a month or two’ when these assumptions are drawn up.
More probable they stay on the service for a while. It doesn’t hurt that there’s quite a decent cadence of games lined up for the next 6 months.
 

Ozriel

M$FT
My plan is to sub on pc for one month to play the zombies and that's it.

There's no reason to stay subbed; the catalogue just isn't good.

Catalogue’s getting Stalker 2, Indiana Jones, Flight Sim 2024 in the next 2 months. Avowed, Sniper Elite Resistance, Atomfall and possibly Expedition 33 within the next 6 months.

Stay subbed for 1 game? What’s keeping someone from saving up for it in a few months tho?

That’s the main problem for gaming subscriptions. Retention.

If MS had multiple big AAA games per year, the discussion would change.

There’s literally 4 big AAA games showing up day 1 on the service between now and the end of the year.
 
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