I wouldn't be surprised if the seat count difference between the Liberals and NDP ended up in the single digits after election day. I do expect one of the parties to pull away eventually(Most likely the NDP at this point).
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Canadian General Election (OT) - #elxn42: October 19, 2015
- Thread starter matthewwhatever
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I wouldn't be surprised if the seat count difference between the Liberals and NDP ended up in the single digits after election day. I do expect one of the parties to pull away eventually(Most likely the NDP at this point).
Then they can table the Really Fair Elections Act.
And down the road the Conservatives can table the Super Fair Elections Act.
CitizenVectron
Member
I suspect that an NDP or Liberal victory will result in the reinstatement of the voting subsidy for parties so that the LPC and NDP will start getting better funding again.
And hopefully some laws about political attack ads outside of a campaign.
Honestly, what purpose do those serve other than to poison the opposition?
Prax
Member
But.. my TTC money..!
I'm sure the Liberals will do the right thing and also use MMP for voting reform. >_>
matthewwhatever
Member
Any reason for that? Because outside of that random Forum poll that had the NDP at 40, I think all their movement has been within the margin of error. The Liberals, by contrast, have jumped from polling under 25 to polling around 30. If either party has momentum at this stage, it'd be them -- though considering we still have six weeks to go, that could very well change in any direction.
Has anyone talked about reinstating the subsidy? It was a pretty great way of making sure there weren't wasted votes, but they may decide that getting rid of FPTP serves that purpose just as well. I hope that it comes back, but at the same time, they may have both discovered that fundraising serves them better in the long run since it allows them to identify their supporters more effectively.
I know that the Liberals are proposing that. Being on the receiving end of those ads can do that to you.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
The subsidy should absolutely be reinstated for a number of reasons: first, it helps mitigate the "cost" of voting conceptually. Why vote, regardless of your party, if you're in Stephen Harper's Calgary riding? Answer: there's no reason to vote. With the subsidy, your vote is an action that translates into palpable benefits for the candidate. Second, within the framework of FPTP, the subsidy is a way of reducing wasted votes, and particularly fixing FPTP's tendency to reward locally deep but narrow parties at the expense of nationally broad but shallow parties. Finally, it gives each voter a more equitable stake in party policy, as opposed to an entirely donation-driven system which means that parties should pay most attention to those most willing to pay.
And it costs basically nothing in any kind of cosmic scale.
And it costs basically nothing in any kind of cosmic scale.
Well darn I thought the shuffle would have created more pure urban ridings that would be in play. Thanks for the local details.
Ideally, I think personal donations should be capped to a nominal amount around $200 with a large portion of the funding coming from subsidies instead. It may starve the parties a little, but it will force them to focus on substance instead of glamorous photo-ops.
I live in Edmonton and this has brought me to a deep distrust of "we'll do something after we decide what it should be" as a platform plank. The opening is truck-wide to get a "we could come to no consensus" result that leaves the status quo intact, or worse an awful compromise like single-member-riding AV that leaves things worse than they were before (and is also Trudeau's first choice).
The NDP have an actual voting reform proposal, which trumps all minor tweaks to the status quo, as part of their platform. It's been a part of their general pool of political positions for decades. The Liberals have come late to this party, and only when things were looking dour for them.
I have approximately zero faith that the core leadership of a resurgent Liberal party won't slip back into the kind of Natural Governing Party bullshit that gutter likes to spout and preserve FPTP in the hopes of reinstating their electoral advantage.
So I find it really weird to even consider the Liberals the owners on this file.
In terms of predicted seat count the NDP already pulled away from the pack.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/globe-election-forecast-2015/article25377958/
Let's be careful to not misinterpret national support percentages as an indication of election day seat count. The way that Liberal Party support is regionally distributed means that although their national support is close to the NDP and Conservatives, they're not nearly as competitive in terms of predicted seat count and are in third place.
At the moment it appears that Liberal Party is taking support away from the Conservatives in the 905 and is poised to pick up seats in Ontario. Before this election even started it was noted that you can't win with Ontario alone.
A better gauge of how parties are doing is to look at provincial polls. If we start to see the Liberals do better in an additional vote rich region of the country then we can expect a tight race.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Personally, I would say the 25 years of promises on senate reform suggests that even when there's an explicit policy on the table, hard stuff doesn't end up getting done.
I 100% agree with this. Hard to imagine that a 10 year spell in the woods, only 5 of those years in the deep woods, is going to overcome a 90+ record of domination in terms of being complacent and being for power for power's sake.
I'll never say that it's a 100% chance, but I do think it is absolutely our best chance. Also, vote reform is a couple orders of magnitude 'easier' in that the House controls its own elections, and PR would be somewhat self-regulating in the House's practical ability in the future to remove it.
matthewwhatever
Member
I know that people like gutter make it hard to imagine, but I don't think the Natural Governing Party stuff is an dominant anymore. Trudeau's brand is all about change, so I find it hard to imagine that he'd throw all that away in a minority government situation. We've already seen what he'd do for Senate reform -- which is a lot more doable than anything the Conservatives and NDP have proposed -- so I don't see why it's doubtful he'd actually pursue meaningful change.
...going by one analyst's review of polls from more than a week ago. Jump ahead a week, taking into account the polls that have the Liberals on the upswing, and:
So no, no matter how much you may want this election to be a foregone conclusion, the current state of the race is anything but settled.
...going by one analyst's review of polls from more than a week ago. Jump ahead a week, taking into account the polls that have the Liberals on the upswing, and:
[/IMG]
So no, no matter how much you may want this election to be a foregone conclusion, the current state of the race is anything but settled.
TheRealTalker
Banned
Labour day had that anti Tories protest and even people are getting creative
Brantford Farmer Carves Out 'Anybody But Harper' In His Field
people are overly annoyed with the Harper Government
Brantford Farmer Carves Out 'Anybody But Harper' In His Field
people are overly annoyed with the Harper Government
Alright cross out my comments about seat projections that are too old to be relevant.
The main point I want to make is that people need to restrain themselves from getting excited about national polling horse race numbers. Focus on local polling, then provincial polling, then seat projections and then finally, much, much later, national polling.
Power changes people, even people with good intentions. There's a lot of pressure that can come from the party apparatus and MPs that's not so visible in the election while it's all about the Leader. Obama was fresh and all about change as well, and while he's delivered on some things he's been extremely and disappointingly status quo on others. Things always change when you actually take power.
And yes, I agree this is true of the NDP (and Mulcair) as well, though I think the back room of the NDP is actually to the left of Mulcair, not to the right. The fact that PR has been an issue of theirs for a really long time suggests that not only is Mulcair behind it, but also the party executives, the MPs, and the voters who've backed them all this time to some significant extent. There's durability there that goes beyond even the Reform party's promise for senate reform before taking power as the CPC.
And the fact that there's division among the Liberal MPs about what form of electoral reform is the right way to go is more than enough reason to believe that they might be stalled into inaction on it in power without a very strong NDP to push the scales over one way. Since the NDP have the more cohesive and specific vision on this, I'd rather they hold the reigns and the Liberals hold their feet to the fire on it than the other way around.
CitizenVectron
Member
New poll from Ipsos: http://globalnews.ca/news/2209152/l...rio-b-c-according-to-latest-seat-projections/
NDP - 34
LPC - 30
CPC - 29
Seat projections based on provincial distribution:
NDP - 128
CPC - 106
LPC - 103
GRN - 1
NDP - 34
LPC - 30
CPC - 29
Seat projections based on provincial distribution:
NDP - 128
CPC - 106
LPC - 103
GRN - 1
Oooh boy this really makes me want to discount these seat projections. White Rock/South Surrey is an incredibly safe conservative seat, with 52.9% of the redistributed 2011 vote going Conservative. That was with a useless, do nothing pylon of a candidate. In this election, that terrible candidate has been replaced by Diane Watts, an enormously popular ex-Surrey Mayor. Finally the second place party in 2011 was the NDP, not the Liberals. How on earth does one compile all of this info and arrive at the conclusion that the Liberals are going to win this seat? If the Conservatives lose this seat then they've probably been completely wiped out.
This must surely be a typo or this polling organization has no idea what they're doing.
gutter_trash
Banned
C'mon Liberals... knock CPC down to 3rd place please3 more seats !
I just listened to a JUST NOT READY radio ad. It is so bad, Conservatives claim that Justin wants to bail out Greece and send winter jackets to Syria. Conservatives inserting lies in opponent's mouth who never said it
Labour day had that anti Tories protest and even people are getting creative
Brantford Farmer Carves Out 'Anybody But Harper' In His Field
people are overly annoyed with the Harper Government
We need a bunch of these social media sharable stories every day until election day. The non-voters in the 18-35 demo need to feel like they're part of something important.
PumpkinSpice
Banned
It's possible support for the Conservatives is not as strong as you think. Northern Gateway may be turning a lot of minds, and LPC usually doesn't fare so bad in suburbs.
wellthereitis.gif
Let's hope the Cons keep that downward trend. There's still over 5 weeks to go.
That's just guesswork, though. The poll doesn't have anywhere near enough data to tell you about suburban vs. urban etc. They asked a total of 113 people in BC. Or like 2.5 people per riding, if they were distributed evenly.
CitizenVectron
Member
Yeah the individual riding results from individual polls are useless. In some case you are literally looking at 2-5 people polled per riding, which is waaaaaaay too small to extrapolate.
BC results for the 2011 election were:
Con 45.5 / NDP 32.5 / Lib 13.4 / Green 7.7
Current BC poll averages are:
Con 23.7 / NDP 35.8 / Lib 28.8 / Green 11.4
Conservative support in BC is at the lowest its been for decades. If this holds for the actual election I could see them losing some assumed safe seats. (But I agree riding projections are a crapshoot)
Con 45.5 / NDP 32.5 / Lib 13.4 / Green 7.7
Current BC poll averages are:
Con 23.7 / NDP 35.8 / Lib 28.8 / Green 11.4
Conservative support in BC is at the lowest its been for decades. If this holds for the actual election I could see them losing some assumed safe seats. (But I agree riding projections are a crapshoot)
Only problem with this is that the BC interior votes very differently -- that is, blue leanings -- than the rest of the province due to demographics. Conservative support in BC may be down, but those interior BC votes -- or even the Surrey riding as previously mentioned by another poster -- should be fairly safe.
I'm just saying based on current polling the Conservatives losing South Surrey White Rock isn't the pollster being completely crazy.
Code:
poll / 2011 redist
average / result riding
Con 23.7 / 45.5 = 0.52 [I]* 52.9[/I] = 27.55
NDP 35.8 / 32.5 = 1.10 [I]* 19.2[/I] = 21.12
Lib 28.8 / 13.4 = 2.15 [I]* 19.1[/I] = 41.05
Grn 11.4 / 7.7 = 1.48 [I]* 5.9[/I] = 8.73Yeah, with the NDP more or less flat, the CPC collapsing, and the Libs growing, uniform swing does produce that result. But that's pretty much exactly why you can't take uniform swing seriously unless you've got a really good sample or set of samples to work with. The margin of error for 113 samples of 4.6 million people is over 10%. In other words, CPC-34%:NDP-45%:LPC-18%:GPC-3% is a valid result from that poll.
I actually used the CBC/threehundredeight weighted averageYeah, with the NDP more or less flat, the CPC collapsing, and the Libs growing, uniform swing does produce that result. But that's pretty much exactly why you can't take uniform swing seriously unless you've got a really good sample or set of samples to work with. The margin of error for 113 samples of 4.6 million people is over 10%. In other words, CPC-34%:NDP-45%:LPC-18%:GPC-3% is a valid result from that poll.
Yeah but this is a reaaaaaally conservative seat. I tried digging into the history and it's gone Conservative since the 70s with the exception of 1972, when it went NDP for two years. Prior to that the elections Canada website doesn't have data. Who knows for how long before that it was Conservative.
No idea where this riding places in a ranking of safe Conservative seats, but it's probably up there. If the Conservatives lose this riding they're probably down to
The biggest reason why I think that specific riding prediction is bullshit is because Diane Watts is one of the few genuine star candidates the Conservatives have. She's very popular locally. It would be somewhat akin to Nenshi running for federal office.
Even if the Conservatives get wiped out throughout the traditionally Conservative ridings in Vancouver, I'd expect her to win this riding due to pure star power.
Even if the Conservatives get wiped out throughout the traditionally Conservative ridings in Vancouver, I'd expect her to win this riding due to pure star power.
National Post has a pretty good review of the Mansbridge-Harper interview on the CBC: http://news.nationalpost.com/full-c...-take-him-or-leave-him-that-may-not-be-enough
A choice excerpt:
A choice excerpt:
Just to be clear, the Liberals are opposed to Northern Gateway, but support Keystone XL and Energy East?
Not sure if enough people think Justin is good enough yet for PM and I'm not sure if he will be able to grab enough support to win anything beyond official opposition this election. The only way the liberals can win is if they do very well in both Atlantic Canada and Ontario(50+ seats in Ontario and almost all the seats in Atlantic Canada).The NDP do have the slightly easier path to victory because of the potential for them to get 60+ seats in Quebec and the potential for them to get the majority of seats in BC. I also do think Mulcair's experience in politics can help him a bit this election.
I wonder if the Liberals would be able to get enough seats in Ontario to win the election because the Liberals seem to be doing pretty good in Ontario now.
matthewwhatever
Member
Just eye-balling the old riding's previous results and the riding's ethnic makeup...the Liberals did finish second there quite a few times, though only once in the riding's history did it seem even kind of close. There's a bit of an East Asian community there, but none of the candidates seem to have ties to any of those communities, so that shouldn't impact it much. It skews older than average, so unless older voters abandon the CPC, it should be a safe riding for them.
You're better off chalking it up to lousy riding-level polling than obsessing over it too much. They also have the Greens at 3% in BC, so I don't think their *that* reliable when you dig down that deep.
It looks like CPC HQ is angry at their campaign manager because of the slump in the polls for their party
https://twitter.com/CTV_PowerPlay/status/641367539348557824
This was mentioned on CTV Power Play earlier today
Found the video were this was mentioned.
http://www.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=...eNum=1#_gus&_gucid=&_gup=twitter&_gsc=cs5ryTc
https://twitter.com/CTV_PowerPlay/status/641367539348557824
This was mentioned on CTV Power Play earlier today
Found the video were this was mentioned.
http://www.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=...eNum=1#_gus&_gucid=&_gup=twitter&_gsc=cs5ryTc
Yeah the Liberals are doing great in Ontario right now. I'd love to see someone do a deep analysis to see where the ceiling is. There's going to be some level of support where a bunch of competitive 905 ridings flip to the Liberals, but then there's going to be some set of true blue Conservative ridings where the Liberals would have to be at a whole other level to get those seats. At what level of popularity do the Liberals need to be for those to flip? I just don't know Ontario that well to say myself.
I'd also like a pollster to have a closer look at Vancouver's suburbs, because there's a bunch of seats around here that the Liberals used to win when they were competitive in the 90s that could go that way again. I feel like Liberal popularity is gaining around here, so does this mean they'll win back the North Shore and Richmond like they once had? If so is this enough to push them across the line?
There was an article before the election that suggested that even if the Liberals did quite well in Ontario, it would be difficult for them to win due to their regional concentration problem. Now that it seems that Liberal numbers are on the uptick in BC, I'd love to see that author provide an update on the situation.
Buba Big Guns
Banned
Hmm just watched the Mansbridge interview. It kinda sounds like Harper is going to resign as PM regardless of the election outcome.
The PC's have fallen to 3rd place: http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/elec...erals-enter-two-way-race-nanos-poll-1.2552109
This is very bad for them, especially with all the recent news about them. On top of the fact Stephen Harper wants to resign if you loses, I think he's becoming wary of being PM.
This is very bad for them, especially with all the recent news about them. On top of the fact Stephen Harper wants to resign if you loses, I think he's becoming wary of being PM.
Sure. Blame the campaign manager.
PumpkinSpice
Banned
Yes. I think this is a big contributor to the Liberal's lack of support in Quebec. Energy East is massively unpopular there.
I don't think it's very popular here in Ottawa either, and I don't like it, but I'm hoping provincial governments and recent market realities will work to get rid of it.
I wonder how Jenni Byrn feels about this now.
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