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Canadian PoliGAF - 42nd Parliament: Sunny Ways in Trudeaupia

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M

Mr.Mike

Member
http://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/live-blog/conservativeconventionresults

J.P. Tasker said:
All told, more than 140,000 people will have voted for the next federal leader when all the ballots are counted.

In the last leadership -- more than a decade ago in 2004 when Stephen Harper cruised to victory on the first ballot -- 97,397 voted. So, that's a considerable improvement although there were only three candidates in that race. When you have 13 candidates running, there will be more memberships sold.
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https://www.reddit.com/r/CanadaPolitics/comments/6def6y/cpc_leadership_election_megathread/di4g6pg/

Rising-Tide said:
Reports stating that more than 140k votes have been counted. May still rise as in-person votes are tabulated. In the last Conservative leadership race in 2004 there were 97,397 votes. In the last Liberal leadership in 2013 and NDP race in 2012 there were 104,552 and 65,108 votes, respectively. That means this leadership race is easily the largest in Canadian history.
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R

ryan-ts

Member
I didn't even vote. Never got a ballot in the mail...

O'Leary is out and Kellie Leitch doesn't appear to be a threat so I'm not too upset.
 
C

CazTGG

Member
ryan-ts said:
I didn't even vote. Never got a ballot in the mail...

O'Leary is out and Kellie Leitch doesn't appear to be a threat so I'm not too upset.
Click to expand...

It's my understanding that you could have gone to the convention centre or one of a few polling stations to vote in person as they would have provided a ballot for you there once identification was provided, but given the current timing (the time to vote was 10-4 EST) it's far too late to do so. Either way, don't rule out Leitch just yet: Let's not forget she raised 1.4 million in the past three weeks, making it the 2nd highest amount of any candidate, second only to Bernier himself. While that doesn't necessarily translate to first or second choice ballot spots in her favor, it's indicative of the sizeable amount of support she does possess. She is unlikely to win given the ranked ballot favors 2nd/3rd/4th slots that Leitch's more divisive policies would make it unlikely for her to be anybody's runner-up, but it's not entirely impossible.

firehawk12 said:
I wonder how many of those are paper Conservatives like me who got scammed into paying for a membership to be anti-O'Leary.
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More than you'd think, if I recall reading an article about people who joined to vote against O'Leary and Leitch was correct.
 
S

S-Wind

Member
pr0cs said:
Exactly, in fact most conservatives out West realize that it is a good decision to have someone from Quebec to bridge the East/West gap. As expected most people not from the West assume we want our guns and oil but in reality most of us will vote cons because we want more money in our pockets,less government intervention and less taxes. The West has zero belief that the government is good at doing good things with taxpayers money so less government is attractive.
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To My Fellow Canadians,

This Albertan libertarian does not speak for Western Canadians.
 
F

firehawk12

Subete no aware
I can't listen to these speeches. It's so disagreeable to me that it makes me ill. lol

Funny enough, the private college industry collapsed in Australia just this week, with tens of thousands of students basically kicked out of school with worthless credits, and I'm supposed to believe that private industry is the more efficient than the government. :p
 
M

matthewwhatever

Member
CazTGG said:
It's my understanding that you could have gone to the convention centre or one of a few polling stations to vote in person as they would have provided a ballot for you there once identification was provided, but given the current timing (the time to vote was 10-4 EST) it's far too late to do so. Either way, don't rule out Leitch just yet: Let's not forget she raised 1.4 million in the past three weeks, making it the 2nd highest amount of any candidate, second only to Bernier himself. While that doesn't necessarily translate to first or second choice ballot spots in her favor, it's indicative of the sizeable amount of support she does possess. She is unlikely to win given the ranked ballot favors 2nd/3rd/4th slots that Leitch's more divisive policies would make it unlikely for her to be anybody's runner-up, but it's not entirely impossible.
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Yeah, I think Leitch winning is unlikely, but not unthinkable. She's got a sizeable base of support in the party, and if any candidate is going to suffer from the Shy Tory Factor, it's her.

Voting results coming now!

EDIT: Poor Obhrai, Saxton and Peterson. Finishing behind a guy who dropped out. :(
 
S

Sean C

Member
The Race for Stornoway: Round 1

14. Obhrai, 0.41%.
13. Saxton, 0.5%.
12. Peterson, 0.65%
11. O'Leary, 1.07%
10. Alexander, 1.12%
9. Blaney, 1.26%
8. Raitt, 3.34%
7. Leitch, 7% (ouch)
6. Lemieux, 7.38%
5. Chong, 7.55%
4. Trost, 8.35%
3. O'Toole, 10.65%
2. Scheer, 21.92%
1. Bernier, 28.89%
 
M

Mr.Mike

Member
Seems like there's gonna be a few rounds just because the people with like a percent or less of support need to be broken up.
 
M

matthewwhatever

Member
Trost coming in waaaay higher than I ever would've predicted on that first ballot. 4th place??? Seriously?

Mr.Mike said:
Seems like there's gonna be a few rounds just because the people with like a percent or less of support need to be broken up.
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Well yeah -- anyone predicting this would be over quickly didn't know what they were talking about. There were way too many candidates with tiny numbers of votes to be redistributed for this to be over in a couple of rounds. If no one even has 30%, this is going to go 10+ rounds.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
Sean C said:
The Race for Stornoway: Round 1

14. Obhrai, 0.41%.
13. Saxton, 0.5%.
12. Peterson, 0.65%
11. O'Leary, 1.07%
10. Alexander, 1.12%
9. Blaney, 1.26%
8. Raitt, 3.34%
7. Leitch, 7% (ouch)
6. Lemieux, 7.38%
5. Chong, 7.55%
4. Trost, 8.35%
3. O'Toole, 10.65%
2. Scheer, 21.92%
1. Bernier, 28.89%
Click to expand...
Sheer is going to win this
 
C

CazTGG

Member
First ballot results:

DA3bhAzXsAAOsZS.jpg


Brad Trost being as high as he is...well it's a surprise, to say the least. On the bright side, Leitch is stuck in the middle, lessening the chances she has of winning.
 
M

Mr.Mike

Member
Should O'Leary's votes be broken first?

How is this situation handled in countries that used ranked ballots for their actual elections?
 
C

CazTGG

Member
matthewwhatever said:
Nope. He withdrew too late to have his votes voided. Instead, Obhrai's 139 points get reallocated.

That'll be followed by Saxton, then Peterson, then O'Leary, and we'll still only have about 5% of the points reallocated by that point!
Click to expand...

So, in theory, O'Leary could somehow win the leadership while simultaneously having withdrawing from the race.

Just so we're clear, this won't happen.
 
S

Sean C

Member
The Race for Stornoway: Rounds 2-7

8. Raitt, 3.74%
7. Leitch, 7.45%
6. Lemieux, 7.58%
5. Chong, 7.97%
4. Trost, 8.47%
3. O'Toole, 11.32%
2. Scheer, 22.97%
1. Bernier, 30.51%
 
S

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
It looks to me like there were 141,694 first-round ballots cast. I'll scrape all the results round by round when they're done.
 
M

matthewwhatever

Member
Lemieux's voters will go to Trost once he's off, and then both of their voters will go to Scheer. That alone gets him to almost 40%.

I think O'Toole voters go Scheer as well, since they were competing for that same middle-of-the-road vote. That gets him to just over 50%.

mo60 said:
It would be bad for bernier if he barely gets above 50% at the end of this.
Click to expand...

Given how it's looking, I think him squeaking over 50% is his best case scenario right now.
 
C

CazTGG

Member
mo60 said:
It would be bad if bernier barely gets above 50% at the end of this.
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Honestly, I would be more surprised if it didn't go right up to the final round with Scheer and Bernier with one of the two having 50.01%. Bernier still has a sizeable lead up on Scheer that could push him over but we'll see how long it lasts.
 
M

Mr.Mike

Member
matthewwhatever said:
Lemieux's voters will go to Trost once he's off, and then both of their voters will go to Scheer. That alone gets him to almost 40%.

I think O'Toole voters go Scheer as well, since they were competing for that same middle-of-the-road vote. That gets him to just over 50%.



Given how it's looking, I think him squeaking over 50% is a best case scenario.
Click to expand...

Crucially Scheer has said he wouldn't bring up social issues.
 
S

Sean C

Member
The Race for Stornoway: Rounds 8-10

5. Chong, 9.14%
4. Trost, 13.71%
3. O'Toole, 14.64%
2. Scheer, 28.28%
1. Bernier, 34.23%

Au revoir, Kellie Leitch.
 
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