Support NeoGAF

[turmoil]

Edit 1-10-2017: The president of the Catalan government gave an speech in the regional parliament, he said that the Catalan people won their right to independence, but when it seemed that he was to declare unilateral independence, he called the lawmakers present to postpone the declaration of independence as a way of starting talks with the central government.

On October 1st, Catalans were called to the polling stations by their autonomic government on a independence referendum(1-O, October 1st) condemned as unconstitutional by the central government and judiciary. Prior days saw the confiscation of ballots and ballot boxes together with some Catalan officials being put on custody. On referendum day there were clashes between voters and the police trying to stop the vote, Catalan authorities say the number of injured is higher than 800 and denounce police brutality, the central government argues that the use of force was proportional. The international press has widely denounced the episode has something that can't be seen in modern western Europe. In spite of the inconveniences Catalonia's government continued with the referendum, according to them, the results are:

Do you want Catalonia to become an independent state in the form of a republic?

Yes 2,020,144 91.96%
No 176,565 8.04%

With a turnout of 42.34%, supporters of staying in Spain didn't vote as they mostly didn't recognize the legitimacy of this election, some pro referendum catalans probably weren't able to vote due to police closing some polling stations and the fear of violent episodes happening.

The independence movement has increased in Catalonia in the last years, it is believed that currently Catalan society is divided 50/50 on this matter, with 70% of catalonians supporting an agreed referendum.

After the referendum, there were massive protests in Barcelona and other Catalan cities against what they consider the violent manners of the police handling the situation. Central government considers that the referendum was sucesfully stopped and called the Catalan to abide by the rule of law. The Catalan president has said that they will be declaring independence in a matter of days.

King Felipe VI gave an speech positioning himself with the government, without mentioning the injured, something that exacerbated the Catalan nationalists.

Looks like next Monday the Catalan Parliament will session on a probable unilateral declaration of independence, if that happens it is expected that the central government will suspend Catalonia's autonomy, likely inciting violence on the streets.

Previous thread: Catalonia to split from Spain within 48 hours of secession vote

 

[MrToast]

Is this likely to lead to violence or chaos for the next few weeks in Barcelona if this attempted independence happens?

I'm going there in the next 3 weeks for a cruise, but of course that depends on whats happening there, any insight on what's likely to happen within 3 weeks? Will it settle down or escalate?

I know what the OP states, but what do others think?

 

[His Majesty]

Interesting times ahead, not only for Spain and Catalonia but also for the European Union.

I truly hope a solution can be reached that will be beneficial to all parties involved but I somehow doubt it. Rajoy is flexing his muscles in a region where his party has nothing to lose and after Sunday I fear there is no going back. I wouldn't expect anything from the European Union either if I were Catalonia. Somehow human rights transgressions are less of an issue in this case. Pathetically weak reactions all around.

 

[veryslowhand]

Even the international observers say the vote was a joke.

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

Even the international observers say the vote was a joke.

They also said the repression was brutal.

 

[Blablurn]

I love Catalonia, like they are my brothers and sisters, but that vote.. Im not sure about that.

 

[AuthenticM]

Regardless of your stance on Catalan's independence, the Spanish government has handled the situation like thugs. I cannot have any sympathy for the Spanish government.

 

[santi_yo]

They also said the repression was brutal.

Both statements are true.

 

[CertifiedFP]

I love how the pro referendum side has a ton of compelling arguments, like Rajoy being a blatant Francoist, while the only argument I've seen out of anti-referendum is them flailing their arms and shrieking "¡Referendum Illegal!"

 

[Jackpot]

I don't see how Catalan's government can declare independence when surveys of the region show a 50/50 split on the issue, and a heavily disrupted referendum produced a 90% in favour result.

 

[Dierce]

Sad to see so many young people brainwashed into nationalistic tendencies.

 

[Prime crotch]

On one hand, you have an inept corrupt government on the other a bankrupt conservative coalition. This is fucked

 

[KingSnake]

Is this likely to lead to violence or chaos for the next few weeks in Barcelona if this attempted independence happens?

I'm going there in the next 3 weeks for a cruise, but of course that depends on whats happening there, any insight on what's likely to happen within 3 weeks? Will it settle down or escalate?

I know what the OP states, but what do others think?

It all depends on what the Catalan government will do. If they go forward with the unilateral declaration of independence then anything can happen, including violence and chaos.

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

Is this likely to lead to violence or chaos for the next few weeks in Barcelona if this attempted independence happens?

I'm going there in the next 3 weeks for a cruise, but of course that depends on whats happening there, any insight on what's likely to happen within 3 weeks? Will it settle down or escalate?

I know what the OP states, but what do others think?

It won't likely settle down. In monday the declaration of independence could happen and from that point out, only god knows. Last time it happened in 1934, was quite a mess.

What we saw on Sunday could be replicated with a few notches higher in terms of repession.

 

[His Majesty]

Sad to see so many young people brainwashed into nationalistic tendencies.

Let's not reduce complex subject matter to empty statements like this. That's Rajoy-level of rhetoric.

 

[Anoregon]

Sorry for my general ignorance on this matter, but just to get this straight - the reason the vote is so overwhelmingly pro-referendum is because most people who would vote no didn't see the referendum itself as legit and thus didn't vote at all?

 

[Ferr986]

Sorry for my general ignorance on this matter, but just to get this straight - the reason the vote is so overwhelmingly pro-referendum is because most people who would vote no didn't see the referendum itself as legit and thus didn't vote at all?

Basically yes. Some No votes still went to vote, but the majority didnt.

 

[deathkiller]

I don't see how Catalan's government can declare independence when surveys of the region show a 50/50 split on the issue, and a heavily disrupted referendum produced a 90% in favour result.

The Catalan government is composed of three parties that hate each other with the only objective of declaring the independence. Not doing the declaration would mean that they would had to break the coalition, "keep governing" is not realistic.

They were elected to declare the independence with the promise of doing so 18 months after the election, that was 25 months ago.

 

[Fledz]

Is this likely to lead to violence or chaos for the next few weeks in Barcelona if this attempted independence happens?

I'm going there in the next 3 weeks for a cruise, but of course that depends on whats happening there, any insight on what's likely to happen within 3 weeks? Will it settle down or escalate?

I know what the OP states, but what do others think?

I think the chances of anything settling down in the next few weeks is about zero. If I was you, I would reschedule.

 

[His Majesty]

Sorry for my general ignorance on this matter, but just to get this straight - the reason the vote is so overwhelmingly pro-referendum is because most people who would vote no didn't see the referendum itself as legit and thus didn't vote at all?

Yes. And I imagine a lot of people also stayed home because of all the police brutality.

Polls have indicated that 80% of Catalonians are in favour of a legitimate referendum and it would likely be a 50-50 split then.

 

[Magni]

I don't know how Spain can pull it off after all this, but ideally Rajoy steps down (fat chance) and a new government begins talk with Catalonia about what to do, in a civilized manner.

IMO, the right thing to do is
1) amend the constitution (easier said than done)
2) hold a legal referendum, with a proper debate, and with proper EU backing (ie, the options are to stay in Spain, or join the EU as a new country). A referendum where the other option implies leaving the EU is not a proper referendum IMO

And of course, the king had to fuck it up even more for Spain. Between him and Rajoy, I don't know how Catalonians can feel Spain has their best interests at heart. All of my Catalan friends are much more in favor of independence now than they were before. The independentistas are furious, and those who were on the fence before were pushed, both figuratively and literally, into the indenpendistas' side.

 

[Dierce]

Let's not reduce complex subject matter to empty statements like this. That's Rajoy-level of rhetoric.

It isn't very complex when support for independence drastically increases after just half a decade. There is a lot of propaganda and misinformation from the Catalans and incompetence from the conservatives who run the Spanish government that pushed this situation over the edge.

Europe needs to be more united, in fact I wish that there weren't any nations but rather states in the EU. I want it to be shaped like the US federal government but having people seeking independence makes this dream less likely.

 

[jmood88]

The Spanish government really fucked things up with their response. Whether the vote was illegal or not, the images of police going after voters and protestors made them look horrible.

 

[Camaway2]

For the sake of Europe I hope this "independence" doesn't happen, or if it happens it is crushed immediately.

The precedent it would set is the destruction of the fabric of the nation states and of the European Union as it stands, as many prosperous areas would seek to "secede" from the state they belong.

The elections were nonsensical as you cannot vote not to pay taxes to help poorer regions, which is what it mostly boils it down to.
If you want to have a democratic vote on such a topic, you should call a national referendum and ask everybody in Spain if they agree with Catalunia being independent and what the framework would then look like. That is how democracy work.

I don't condone the heavy handedness of the police on Sunday (which was stupid and counterproductive), but it's the Catalunian authorities the ones responsible for this mess.

 

[Theonik]

Even the international observers say the vote was a joke.

The ones that weren't beaten up by the police that is.

 

[Ferr986]

I don't know how Spain can pull it off after all this, but ideally Rajoy steps down (fat chance) and a new government begins talk with Catalonia about what to do, in a civilized manner.

IMO, the right thing to do is
1) amend the constitution (easier said than done)
2) hold a legal referendum, with a proper debate, and with proper EU backing (ie, the options are to stay in Spain, or join the EU as a new country). A referendum where the other option implies leaving the EU is not a proper referendum IMO

And of course, the king had to fuck it up even more for Spain. Between him and Rajoy, I don't know how Catalonians can feel Spain has their best interests at heart. All of my Catalan friends are much more in favor of independence now than they were before. The independentistas are furious, and those who were on the fence before were pushed, both figuratively and literally, into the indenpendistas' side.

Both Rajoy and Puigdemont have a lot to lose (in terms of votes and support) if they give up on their stances.

So yeah, right now, sadly (and IMO) there's no solution to this. It's going to be a damn shitshow.

 

[trembli0s]

I don't know how Spain can pull it off after all this, but ideally Rajoy steps down (fat chance) and a new government begins talk with Catalonia about what to do, in a civilized manner.

IMO, the right thing to do is
1) amend the constitution (easier said than done)
2) hold a legal referendum, with a proper debate, and with proper EU backing (ie, the options are to stay in Spain, or join the EU as a new country). A referendum where the other option implies leaving the EU is not a proper referendum IMO

And of course, the king had to fuck it up even more for Spain. Between him and Rajoy, I don't know how Catalonians can feel Spain has their best interests at heart. All of my Catalan friends are much more in favor of independence now than they were before. The independentistas are furious, and those who were on the fence before were pushed, both figuratively and literally, into the indenpendistas' side.

Number 2 is a laughable premise, particularly in light of Brexit. Out is out, as the EU has repeatedly stated. That's your choice at the end of the day. Out of Spain and out of the EU.

The EU is not going to negotiate side deals for every single aggrieved national movement in its own member nations.

 

[ClosingADoor]

I don't know how Spain can pull it off after all this, but ideally Rajoy steps down (fat chance) and a new government begins talk with Catalonia about what to do, in a civilized manner.

IMO, the right thing to do is
1) amend the constitution (easier said than done)
2) hold a legal referendum, with a proper debate, and with proper EU backing (ie, the options are to stay in Spain, or join the EU as a new country). A referendum where the other option implies leaving the EU is not a proper referendum IMO

And of course, the king had to fuck it up even more for Spain. Between him and Rajoy, I don't know how Catalonians can feel Spain has their best interests at heart. All of my Catalan friends are much more in favor of independence now than they were before. The independentistas are furious, and those who were on the fence before were pushed, both figuratively and literally, into the indenpendistas' side.

I do not see the EU agreeing to that beforehand. Too much of a mess for the other countries.

 

[AuthenticM]

Europe needs to be more united, in fact I wish that there weren't any nations but rather states in the EU. I want it to be shaped like the US federal government but having people seeking independence makes this dream less likely.

dude no. This is too much. There needs to be boundaries and self-determination at some level. You just can't shove so many different people from so many different cultures under the same roof. It wouldn't work.

 

[Theonik]

dude no. This is too much. There needs to be boundaries and self-determination at some level. You just can't shove so many different people from so many different cultures under the same roof. It wouldn't work.

So a union of local self-governing bodies? A Union of Soviets? A Soviet Union if you will.

 

[His Majesty]

For the sake of Europe I hope this "independence" doesn't happen, or if it happens it is crushed immediately.

The precedent it would set is the destruction of the fabric of the nation states and of the European Union as it stands, as many prosperous areas would seek to "secede" from the state they belong.

The elections were nonsensical as you cannot vote not to pay taxes to help poorer regions, which is what it mostly boils it down to.
If you want to have a democratic vote on such a topic, you should call a national referendum and ask everybody in Spain if they agree with Catalunia being independent and what the framework would then look like. That is how democracy work.

I don't condone the heavy handedness of the police on Sunday (which was stupid and counterproductive), but it's the Catalunian authorities the ones responsible for this mess.

The nation state is not the holy grail of political units. In these times of globalisation its importance is receding and if we want to move towards a stronger European Union, decentralisation of nation states is the logical solution for me.

Note that I am not advocating for a United States of Europe, but the archaic nation state does not always make the most sense.

 

[KingSnake]

I don't know how Spain can pull it off after all this, but ideally Rajoy steps down (fat chance) and a new government begins talk with Catalonia about what to do, in a civilized manner.

IMO, the right thing to do is
1) amend the constitution (easier said than done)
2) hold a legal referendum, with a proper debate, and with proper EU backing (ie, the options are to stay in Spain, or join the EU as a new country). A referendum where the other option implies leaving the EU is not a proper referendum IMO

And of course, the king had to fuck it up even more for Spain. Between him and Rajoy, I don't know how Catalonians can feel Spain has their best interests at heart. All of my Catalan friends are much more in favor of independence now than they were before. The independentistas are furious, and those who were on the fence before were pushed, both figuratively and literally, into the indenpendistas' side.

That has no chance of happening. An independent Catalonia will be de facto outside EU. Sure, it can join via the normal process. Unless Spain vetoes it.

 

[AuthenticM]

So a union of local self-governing bodies? A Union of Soviets? A Soviet Union if you will.

How about simply having distinct countries work together, like it's always been?

 

[Majine]

I really hope they reach a solution that allows them to stay with Spain and be happy, it would set a bad precedent for the rest of Europe otherwise, but Madrid keeps fucking this up left and right.

 

[Dierce]

dude no. This is too much. There needs to be boundaries and self-determination at some level. You just can't shove so many different people from so many different cultures under the same roof. It wouldn't work.

That may be true, not disagreeing with you, but it should still be what everyone strives towards. But what I said about a more united Europe still applies, there is absolutely no way Spain would have good foreign relations with an independent Catalan government.

 

[Trojita]

Didn't vote because you thought it was a joke

Spain was helping you win.

 

[forknknife]

The referendum asked three following:

Do you want Catalonia to become an independent state in the form of a republic?

No specific question in regards to a unilateral declaration of independence.

If the Catalan government declares Catalonia independent unilaterally for me they will be in the wrong side of the argument again.

I believe that the unilateral declaration of independence is just meant to force the Spanish government to enact article 155 and scalate the conflict. This is a highly irresponsible move from the Catalan government side too. Hope they think twice about what they say they're going to be doing.

I just don't want more blood on the streets and anybody who helps this happen should be held accountable.

 

[fanboi]

I don't know how Spain can pull it off after all this, but ideally Rajoy steps down (fat chance) and a new government begins talk with Catalonia about what to do, in a civilized manner.

IMO, the right thing to do is
1) amend the constitution (easier said than done)
2) hold a legal referendum, with a proper debate, and with proper EU backing (ie, the options are to stay in Spain, or join the EU as a new country). A referendum where the other option implies leaving the EU is not a proper referendum IMO

And of course, the king had to fuck it up even more for Spain. Between him and Rajoy, I don't know how Catalonians can feel Spain has their best interests at heart. All of my Catalan friends are much more in favor of independence now than they were before. The independentistas are furious, and those who were on the fence before were pushed, both figuratively and literally, into the indenpendistas' side.

I don't belive number two is possible.

1) Amend the constitution
2) Hold the referendrum

In case of YES leave:

1) Do a formal leave process with Spain

EU is not a free pass for nations. They have their process of joining and with Spain being able to veto it... yeah, this could be suicide for Catalans.

 

[Camaway2]

The nation state is not the holy grail of political units. In these times of globalisation its importance is receding and if we want to move towards a stronger European Union, decentralisation of nation states is the logical solution for me.

Note that I am not advocating for a United States of Europe, but the archaic nation state does not always make the most sense.

Besides the fact that the wind of globalisation is receding fast, a decentralisation of the nation states is only thinkable in a far fetched future where the EU has authority (amongst many other things that are currently prerogative of the nation state) over the bulk of federal taxation.

We are decades away (if ever) from such scenario.

In any case, even if you imagine Spain dissolving in a EU superstate Catalunia will still have to subsidize the poorer neighbouring regions, nothing will change in this matter.

 

[entremet]

Seems like many of these populists movements are powered by the failure of the EU promise of prosperity. Not every nation is seeing this and it’s rather easy to set up the EU as the boogie man. Doesn’t Spain have a huge youth unemployment rate?

 

[QuicheFontaine]

For the sake of Europe I hope this "independence" doesn't happen, or if it happens it is crushed immediately.

The precedent it would set is the destruction of the fabric of the nation states and of the European Union as it stands, as many prosperous areas would seek to "secede" from the state they belong.

The elections were nonsensical as you cannot vote not to pay taxes to help poorer regions, which is what it mostly boils it down to.
If you want to have a democratic vote on such a topic, you should call a national referendum and ask everybody in Spain if they agree with Catalunia being independent and what the framework would then look like. That is how democracy work.

I don't condone the heavy handedness of the police on Sunday (which was stupid and counterproductive), but it's the Catalunian authorities the ones responsible for this mess.

I don't think that would work. For comparison, I don't think the 5m in Scotland would have thought it legitimate if 55m English got to vote in their independence referendum (though the results would have been interesting to see!).

 

[freeofgreed]

Seems like many of these populists movements are powered by the failure of the EU promise of prosperity. Not every nation is seeing this and it's rather easy to set up the EU as the boogie man. Doesn't Spain have a huge youth unemployment rate?

I don't think that's really the case here at all. If anything it's the opposite. Catalonia isn't trying to break away the EU. Catalonia is trying to break away from Spain. An independent Catalonia would almost definitely want to join the EU. Spain is one of the countries were the EU is viewed very favorably. Also Catalonia is quite prosperous right now. It isn't economic anxiety driving this.

 

[ClosingADoor]

The nation state is not the holy grail of political units. In these times of globalisation its importance is receding and if we want to move towards a stronger European Union, decentralisation of nation states is the logical solution for me.

Note that I am not advocating for a United States of Europe, but the archaic nation state does not always make the most sense.

I don't really get this argument. In such a situation wouldn't you just trade Madrid for Brussels? Because this would go hand in hand with giving more power to the EU, for example taxation and then again Catalonia will have to pay more in then they get back. Which every region has to really if they are richer then others.

Seems like many of these populists movements are powered by the failure of the EU promise of prosperity. Not every nation is seeing this and it's rather easy to set up the EU as the boogie man. Doesn't Spain have a huge youth unemployment rate?

In this case, Catalonia is doing better then the rest of Spain actually. So part of the argument is they don't want to subsidize other regions that much but decide on their own finances more.

 

[tuxfool]

Seems like many of these populists movements are powered by the failure of the EU promise of prosperity. Not every nation is seeing this and it’s rather easy to set up the EU as the boogie man. Doesn’t Spain have a huge youth unemployment rate?

This has nothing to do with the matter.

 

[Ferr986]

Seems like many of these populists movements are powered by the failure of the EU promise of prosperity. Not every nation is seeing this and it's rather easy to set up the EU as the boogie man. Doesn't Spain have a huge youth unemployment rate?

Yes, the unemployment rate is high but this doesn't come from Catalonia being displeased at EU, in fact they want to stay in the EU This is more about old sentiments against Spain that arised again due to varying circumstances.

 

[7Th]

I2) hold a legal referendum, with a proper debate, and with proper EU backing (ie, the options are to stay in Spain, or join the EU as a new country). A referendum where the other option implies leaving the EU is not a proper referendum IMO

Loving every laugh.

 

[tuxfool]

Yes, the unemployment rate is high but this doesn't come from Catalonia being displeased at EU, in fact they want to stay in the EU This is more about old sentiments against Spain that arised again due to varying circumstances.

Those sentiments have been there since, basically forever.

 

[Jackpot]

The Spanish government really fucked things up with their response. Whether the vote was illegal or not, the images of police going after voters and protestors made them look horrible.

True dat.

 

[fanboi]

I don't really get this argument. In such a situation wouldn't you just trade Madrid for Brussels? Because this would go hand in hand with giving more power to the EU, for example taxation and then again Catalonia will have to pay more in then they get back. Which every region has to really if they are richer then others.


In this case, Catalonia is doing better then the rest of Spain actually. So part of the argument is they don't want to subsidize other regions that much but decide on their own finances more.

Doesn’t Catalonia revive huge support money from the central government and having a debt of 70 billion euro?

 

[Regginator]

With a turnout of 42.34%, supporters of staying in Spain didn't vote as they mostly didn't recognize the legitimacy of this election, some pro referendum catalans probably weren't able to vote due to police closing some polling stations and the fear of violent episodes happening.

Any source for this? Because, despite me encouraging Catalan independence, I find that extremely stupid from their part if that's true. One of the reasons I side with the Catalans is because the vast majority seems to want this, so if there's a substantial amount of people against independence and for whatever reason didn't vote, that's very dumb.