Chancellor Merkel's approval rating rises, could very well remain Chancellor

Azzanadra said:
I thought Merkel was a conservative? Why is everyone celebrating? I mean sure she isn't on the level of Republicans, but I assumed at the very least she's like a David Cameron or a Stephen Harper.
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Germanys and most of Europes conservative view would be considered "left" in the US
 
Gurgelhals said:
So, this is going to be another CDU-led grand coalition, isn't it? Not enough seats for a CDU/FDP coaltion (at least if the Left manages to hold on to their projected 5%). Or would the Greens actually be willing to go into a coalition with the CDU and the FDP?
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oh, the old mythical beast.
1200px-Flag_of_Jamaica.svg.png
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GAMEPROFF said:
Would not say that straight out. The CDU declared coutries like Afgahnistan as safe countries, from which refugees are no longer accepted.
And the party didnt do this with her approval.
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Or even sent back.

GAMEPROFF said:
With the SPD as a junior partner there is still hope for good reforms. Mindestlohn, Frauenquote, everything stuff that was a SPD thing.
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If they push through adoption for homosexual couples, I'll be somewhat satisfied at least.
 
Lexxism said:
Trudeau is doing okay leading the free world.
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Canada lacks the economic and strategic importance of Germany. They're basically in charge of the EU, play a huge role in NATO, and are geographically close to most of the important places in the world.

Without a large army or big trading partners Canada isn't worth much.
 
GAMEPROFF said:
Would not say that straight out. The CDU declared coutries like Afgahnistan as safe countries, from which refugees are no longer accepted.
And the party didnt do this with her approval.

Of course, the overall course didnt changed. But there went a couple of thing by that deserved more attention.
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This was done with the SPD and Green support. So what you're actually saying is the whole country might have moved to the right.
 
Xando said:
This was done with the SPD and Green support. So what you're actually saying is the whole country might have moved to the right.
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That the SPD as the junior partner has to agree was to be expected. Thats how the things work.
That the greens really also agreed is something that I didnt knew and that actually disappoints me.
 
I just hope that Merkel isnt followed by Ursula von der Leyen after she quits.

We would go from "Mutti" to "Dragon-Nanny"
 
Costa Kid said:
I would rather the strong and stable (lol) government like in Germany than in the US where the entire country's politics does a u-turn every eight years.
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The funny thing is that all those fancy bullshit labels that conservative parties in the Anglosphere come up with in order to distract from the fact that, in reality, they're just mustache-twirlingly evil bastards who don't give a shit about society at large actually apply to Merkel.

"Compassionate Conservatism" -> check
"Big Society" -> check
"strong and stable government" -> check
...
 
Azzanadra said:
I thought Merkel was a conservative? Why is everyone celebrating? I mean sure she isn't on the level of Republicans, but I assumed at the very least she's like a David Cameron or a Stephen Harper.
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Well, Gigawatts explained it rather clearly a couple posts over yours:

1.21Gigawatts said:
I've encountered a lot of people on the right who kinda came up with little conspiracy theories about Merkel and her approval ratings. They basically claim that Merkel is actually very unpopular and a majority of Germans doesn't like the EU and is anti-immigration.
And the mainstream media is working towards covering up these facts and silencing the secret majority.

I think this arose out of the specific informational bubbles find themselves in. If you get most of your information online and already have your go to (anti EU, anti immigrant) sources you will likely get the impression that Merkel is terrible and nobody likes her.


Bottom line is that germans like calm and careful politicians. Merkel is basically the prototype of a modern german politician. Additionally she has been doing a pretty good job so far. Germans always like to complain, but the vast majority realizes that things are going pretty good.

This is exactly what makes it so hard for other parties to rise up currently.

Years ago Merkel channeled the term "politische Mitte" (political middle), this wasn't just empty rhetoric. She successfully created a platform with such widespread appeal that other parties are struggling to stand out with fundamentally different ideas and true alternatives.

The best example for this is probably the incorporation of green energy plans into her center right platform.
For decades environmental protection and green energy were the issues of the "Greens".
But Merkel made Germany one of the frontrunners of green energy and environmental protections and now the Greens face some kind of identity crisis.

And lastly, Merkel is a safe bet in uncertain times. Germans are anxious people.

The only thing that could prevent a 4th term for Merkel is Merkel herself. A little over a year ago there was a period were I thought she has had enough, but that changed and now she seems well prepared for another 4 years, Trump and Brexit have energized her. She is a woman of principles and she seems to think she is the best person to defend these threatened principles for another 4 years.
Even though I never for her or her party, I tend to agree.
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Despite any opinion anyone can have about her, it is undeniable she did at the very least, globally, an adequate job, and the country is in a rather good position right now. She more or less represents a sense of stability (that is quite needed right now).

Honestly, I think she will be reelected as long as she runs, though I doubt she'll go for a fifth term.
 
Liha said:
The result will be a coalition between the conservative OVP and right-wing FPO, we just don't know who will become chancellor (Kurz (OVP) or Strache (FPO)). The right-wing FPO is leading all polls since more than a year so a chancellor Strache is more likely.
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OVP leading the polls 28% SPO 28% and FPO 26%
 
Calm waterfall said:
Frankly i don´t like Merkel and i hope that the socialists win.
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The SPD politicians aren't socialists. They are social democrats. Big difference. Die Linke however, successor of the formel communist party PDS from East Germany, has no chance of even being considered a junior partner after the next election.
 
Germany needs massive improvements, which will never happen under Merkel. But yeah, she is seen as stability factor in times of uncertainty and with the refugee topic being pretty much dead, she is likely going to win.
 
she was never in danger. spd was pro refugee just as her. the only risk was cdu not following her anymore.
Orniletter said:
We are a pragmatic bunch and see Schulz for who he really is.

And our SPD/Green government sucked ass
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its due to schroeders agenda 2010 that the german job market recovered (with many problems remaining, mind you). spd lost its appeal to the workers class due to this though
Gurgelhals said:
With Kurz as their top candidate, the ÖVP would probably siphon off some support from the FPÖ and come out on top. But still. Kurz? As Chancellor? WTF?!?
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impressive that guy just turned 30. i dont like his rhetorik but still impressive
 
KingK said:
Yeah basically. Merkel is still a more than competent leader though. Germany is really in the envious position of having two pretty good frontrunners in their election. As an American, I'd give anything for the choice between Merkel and Schulz lol.
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what? Our available choices are poor. Social justice decreased in the last decade with continuity. We are getting poorer and poorer, have to work longer while the rich people are being still treated as the holy grail.

The SPD claims to be more social, but they are just the CDU with a different name. They can't even remember when the last time they did something for the social system.

When are we starting to tax rich people the same es poor? Just an example: When your salary exceeds a certain threshold (Not completely sure, but something around 56k) you are paying already the max amount for health insurance. So it doesn't matter if you get 2 million per year or 56k per year. Both pay the same amount. How is this fair? This is a huge amount of money that the social system doesn't see.

Or the private health insurances....I could continue for much longer (Insurance, Pension, education, environment,...), but I think it's clear that Germany or the EU is not the holy grail of politics. We are on our best way to USA 2.0 where the society is being fucked by the rich people, because they rule the country and are getting richer and richer while the poor are getting poorer and poorer.
 
Guys the main challenger wasn't an alt-right nut, it was Schulz, left-wing. (State elections definitely point to Merkel winning, though.)

I very much don't like Merkel's stance on fiscal hardlining in Europe in a moment where public spending would be needed, but she's done a pretty good job.
 
Liha said:
The result will be a coalition between the conservative OVP and right-wing FPO, we just don't know who will become chancellor (Kurz (OVP) or Strache (FPO)). The right-wing FPO is leading all polls since more than a year so a chancellor Strache is more likely.
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Meh, that's an oversimplification, these numbers are way too volatile still. :/

HaloRose said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Austrian_legislative_election
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yup, it's also way too early too judge how the 'core' ÖVP voters will react to Kurz' demands and proposals. There's many ÖVP voters who do not like Kurz, because he's kind of a young snob.
On the other hand, he's also a "charismatic strong leader" who's positioned himself to be further right on the political spectrum than some might have expected - so that might sway some 'conservative'-leaning FPÖ voters back to the ÖVP.
 
Art Teitlebaum said:
Never voted for her and I doubt I will for the rest of my life, but tbh we could have it worse. Fucking austerity is a dead end street, but apart from that she is bearable in comparison to so many other politicians in the present and the past. (Fuck you Helmut Kohl, you corrupt cunt.)
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i would vote for her for the first time due to the refugee crisis. she was the one of the few leaders (i know that sweden, austria, greece etc. also did a lot but a lot of other countries just acted like war refugees are a menace) that handled the situation with humanitarian principles in mind.

however i cannot since her party is not available in my state
 
HaloRose said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Austrian_legislative_election
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lol thanks I had an old one from last week. Kurz will held a press conference any minute from now and announce his official candidacy for the upcoming election. He wants to run under an own list (like Macron in France) but with the support of his conservative party and a complete restart of the conservative party.

Link: https://derstandard.at/jetzt/livebe...-parteivorstand-beraet-ueber-kurz-bedingungen

Edit: The press conference is over, the new name for the party / movement is: Sebastian Kurz - The new People's Party. He will lead the party with almost absolute power.


Fliesen said:
Meh, that's an oversimplification, these numbers are way too volatile still. :/
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Well, the green party is too weak and the NEOS (liberal party) might join Kurz, there is no way that the SPO or Green Party are in the next government, Kern is done.
 
crack-king said:
what? Our available choices are poor. Social justice decreased in the last decade with continuity. We are getting poorer and poorer, have to work longer while the rich people are being still treated as the holy grail.

The SPD claims to be more social, but they are just the CDU with a different name. They can't even remember when the last time they did something for the social system.

When are we starting to tax rich people the same es poor? Just an example: When your salary exceeds a certain threshold (Not completely sure, but something around 56k) you are paying already the max amount for health insurance. So it doesn't matter if you get 2 million per year or 56k per year. Both pay the same amount. How is this fair? This is a huge amount of money that the social system doesn't see.

Or the private health insurances....I could continue for much longer (Insurance, Pension, education, environment,...), but I think it's clear that Germany or the EU is not the holy grail of politics. We are on our best way to USA 2.0 where the society is being fucked by the rich people, because they rule the country and are getting richer and richer while the poor are getting poorer and poorer.
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lets not forget that every german is entitled to hartz iv if they are jobless which includes, health insurance (for free), rent (for free) and a modest amount for living.

also education (incl. university) is largely free as well. you even get a state student loan where 50% is a subsidy.

as someone who also has seen system where you are supposed to die in a gutter if you dont have money it seems like a very humane system to me.
 
SporeCrawler said:
lets not forget that every german is entitled to hartz iv if they are jobless which includes, health insurance (for free), rent (for free) and a modest amount for living.

also education (incl. university) is largely free as well. you even get a state student loan where 50% is a subsidy.

as someone who also has seen system where you are supposed to die in a gutter if you dont have money it seems like a very humane system to me.
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hartz IV sounds good, but it is not good...It's just to not enough in germany... Education may be free, but it's not great. It has so many flaws...And while speaking about being "free". The richer your parents are the better your education will be...why? because schools are not that great and parents have to help the children, which is of course easier for richer people. So it's advertised as free, but in reality...

And I don't say that we are living in the worst country ever, but it didn't got better in the last 15-20 years, but mostly worse and I don't see any hope...
 
SporeCrawler said:
its due to schroeders agenda 2010 that the german job market recovered (with many problems remaining, mind you). spd lost its appeal to the workers class due to this though
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Oh, sure ! No disagreements there. I was talking about NRW's last state government under Hannelore Kraft.

Edit: Oh my, the left under 5%. Fantastic.
 
Kyougar said:
Germanys and most of Europes conservative view would be considered "left" in the US
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Its not that easy. The political spectrum just isn't really comparable between the US and the EU.

The US is for example discussing stuff like universal healthcare, free college education, paid maternity leave etc. Being for that stuff makes you left wing in the US.
All these things are a given in Europe. Not even the most extremist right winger would oppose them.
That kind of libertarian, "small government", fiscally conservative right just doesn't exist in Europe.
Its socially conservative parties and the next step to the right is nationalist ones. And when its comes to the nationalists the spectrum goes full circle because they usually are big fans of socialist policies.

So if we compare these politicians and judge them by American standards we have too look at groups of issues individually.

On social issues Merkel is mildly conservative rather centrist, basically like Obama or Hillary Clinton 10 years ago.
On social systems Merkel is clearly left wing, like Bernie Sanders but more coherent.
On foreign policy Merkel is definitely a globalist rather than a nationalist.
On environmental issues she is progressive.


Oersted said:
Germany needs massive improvements
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Like what?
 
crack-king said:
hartz IV sounds good, but it is not good...It's just to not enough in germany... Education may be free, but it's not great. It has so many flaws...And while speaking about being "free". The richer your parents are the better your education will be...why? because schools are not that great and parents have to help the children, which is of course easier for richer people. So it's advertised as free, but in reality...
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This is not necessarily true.
You talk like education is dependent on money like in the US.

My mom was a single parent and we lived off Hartz 4 all my childhood. I still made my Abitur and studied applied computer science and only paid ~2k € which was mostly paid for by the government (although i loned it via BAföG).
 
the trend of the last decades of Socialist affiliated parties across Europe like Germany's SPD and France's PS + others is that these S parties have become so establishment that they are no longer really Socialists LOL

so the fractruing on the Left not giving enough support to these S parties has been a continental phonemoneon .

when a Socialist party wins power than finds out that they must do hard decisions and end doing the same thing as the Conservative parties do; that's when Lefty voters give up support for them
 
1.21Gigawatts said:
Like what?
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Centralize the education system.
Repair schools (there was one study some time ago, which said that schools need around 34 billion euro to be renovated)
Invest in teachers, especially good teachers
Dismantle private health and pension insurances
Invest in the infrastructure (e.g. roads)
Increase the minimum wage
Forbid "Zeitarbeit" or give much stricter regulations. People are being held as slaves there.
Increase taxes for the rich people
Increase taxes for big companies
Introduce the basic income
Invest in digital infrustructure
Net neutrality must be a given
Stop the spying on own people with the NSA

That's just quick brainstorming.
 
Xando said:
This is not necessarily true.
You talk like education is dependent on money like in the US.

My mom was a single parent and we lived off Hartz 4 all my childhood. I still made my Abitur and studied applied computer science and only paid ~2k € which was mostly paid for by the government (although i loned it via BAföG).
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I also have parents that migrated from a different country, both are working but are definitely not rich and I still made abitur, I studied and I now have a great job. But it's not secret that the chances for kids of rich people are much better. But there are always exceptions and that's great.

EDIT: Oh fuck, sorry for the doppel posting :(
 
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