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[NLB2]

I was reading a topic at some other forum about how China is expected to overtake the US as the world's largest economy in ~15 years. Being that other forum, this quickly degenerated into a thread of "We've got enough nukes for the Chinamen commies!"
But I would like to discuss this seriously - what are the effects of China overtaking the US in GDP?
The US would still be as rich as ever, no doubt, and this would have no affect on trade. But what are the political ramifications of China's growth?

 

[android]

And what fourm would that be? :lol

 

[Fresh Prince]

In the end multinational companies are the ones who really benefit. I guess people would treat China no different to the US- bitch alot but remain impotenant. OR WWIII

 

[NLB2]

And what fourm would that be? :lol

I'll give you a buck if you guess.
Here's a hint: Olimario is a douchebag.

 

[Incognito]

OPA AGES?????

WHAT DO I WIN????

 

[ChrisReid]

You might think China might gain a lot of political momentum/clout/etc. That's a possibility, but their per capita GDP would still be less than 20% of that in the US. You've also got a larger rural population with much lower education and health care. Overall, standard of living will still be much poorer. As long as these issues linger, China's practical power will be much less than that of the US. These are some issues that could take a couple generations to overcome, and by that point, where would India be? They already have a much better head start in real economic and social modernization.

 

[ecliptic]

They said that about Japan also and you can see where they are now.

You can't have artificial inflation and not expect an economic crash.

 

[android]

oh incognito won while I was typing. damn. well here are my thoughts.

China is home to one sixth of the planets current population. This sets them up for two options, world monetary domination or complete collapse. They will either continue to grow or won't be able to support their people and crumble. China's leaders seem to know this and are taking baby steps towards capitalism, unlike Russia who jumped in feet first and subsequently collapsed. I believe that they will overtake the US economic terms (not military) within twenty years. But with the larger population more people there will be poor. At least until they dwarf the US.
So what will this mean. I think not a whole lot. Europe dominated the planet for quite some time and when the US and Russia overtook them as the dominate nations, they didn't completely fall apart. In fact they are some of the world's most stable nations, despite being devasted by two World Wars. As long as the US strengthens it's economic ties to China (regardless of what people feel about their human rights record) America can maintain a number two position in the world holding off other up and comers like India. I also feel that to help in this the United States, Canada, Mexico and maybe a few countries, if not most, in Latin America will become one nation or alliance within the next 100-200 years, as will Europe and the rest of Asia. But none of us will see that. Except me. I'm immortal. "Here we are. Born to be kings. We're the princes of the universe. Yeah"

 

[NLB2]

OPA AGES?????

WHAT DO I WIN????

Nothing. Prize was only for android, and he failed.

 

[DonasaurusRex]

...I think that soon after china is number one...india will leapfrog them...

 

[speedpop]

Where's Do The Mario when you need him.

 

[djtiesto]

I think globalism as a whole will look less "American" and a bit more Asian.. you can already see this slightly happen, more people than ever drive Japanese/Korean cars, play Japanese games, watch Japanese TV shows...

I'm all for China emerging as a superpower... someone needs to put the US in check...

 

[Xenon]

I'm all for China emerging as a superpower... someone needs to put the US in check...

Yeah because they are known for their positive influence on world events =P They can’t even resolve issues with their own neighbor, NK.

 

[Socreges]

I have no idea. I think it depends on what effects NMD and the militarization of space have in the future.

 

[King Jippo]

I think globalism as a whole will look less "American" and a bit more Asian.. you can already see this slightly happen, more people than ever drive Japanese/Korean cars, play Japanese games, watch Japanese TV shows...

Yes, its going to be cars, video games, and anime that overtake US global influence. Maybe to the 17 year old male.

 

[scorcho]

the Chinese overtaking the US economy is a given, but also important is that India has just as much potential to overtake the US as well. The entire sino-asian region might dominate the political landscape within 50 years. the EU will act as a check on China's dominance, but i wouldn't be surprised if asian countries decide to form their own regional block either in defiance to or in accordance with China.

there's nothing the US can do to stop this. realists have looked at china as replacing the USSR in terms of enacting another bipolar world, but the truth is that the US isn't going to be able to compete with the sheer industrial potential of China. militarily speaking we're generations ahead, but that will be compensated by the economic growth and eventual technological advances in China. i only hope that a China near-hegemony doesn't dictate America's economic implosion if we try to match their military spending.

 

[djtiesto]

Yes, its going to be cars, video games, and anime that overtake US global influence. Maybe to the 17 year old male.

Well that's not what I meant, notice the word "slightly"...

I was actually talking about one of the theories stated in "Mapping The Global Future" , a document put out by the CIA of a number of different scenarios that'll play out during the future. One of them was China emerging as the #2 superpower, and globalism having less of a US face. Read the document, it's actually pretty interesting stuff (if you're into that kinda thing)