Valkyrie
Muskateer
Mini Peka
Balloon
Hog Rider
Spear Goblins
Skeleton Army
Baby Dragon
I know, mostly the same, right? That's actually a regression. I originally dropped Balloon & Horde and tried Armored Minion and Inferno Tower then swapped Minion for Peka.
My losses were more consistent. I felt like Tower was just prolonging the inevitable. I swapped Tower back for Balloon and my Win ratio has improved as a result but victories are very slim. That said, a lot of my losses are slim, too.
As for what's beating me? Decisive losses usually result from an early swarm. I struggle with a big drop at the end like Golem. Most of the time only a single tower falls, their's or mine. Lotta stalemates until someone finally gets an edge.
Zap is wrecking me pretty good. Witches end up eating a lot of my resources. Wizards, too.
My dragon is really weak and I've gone way too long ignoring him. But you can only ask for epics once a week and I need 3 which is a lot of gold if i buy him, not counting the upgrade fee.
So I'm thinking I need a spell. These are my options:
(Level, Name, Amount Available for Further Upgrades)
5 Arrows 277/50
5 Zap 161/50
4 Fireball 48/20
2 Poison 5/4
2 Lightning 1/4
I know you said you didn't want to copy any existing deck strategies out there because you want to do it more organically and experiment. But you have to expect to lose a lot if you are going to take that approach, and if you are being frustrated by it I'd have to say it is your own fault. Hopefully you are starting to enjoy things more.
Witches should be an easy kill for a Valkyrie. You just have to wait for her to cross the river and drop the Valkyrie right on top. Like a lot of situations in the game, patience is key.
Something in among Valkyrie, Mini Pekka, And Skeleton Army feels redundant. And usually people wouldn't have Hog and Balloon in their deck, as they are each something you'd otherwise build a deck around. Seems like your deck is a jack of all trades, master of none, which is perhaps why you are getting the results that you are, getting narrow victories. You should at least look at the recommended decks out there, and then find a way to put your own unique spin on one with one or two unusual substitutions to throw your opponent a curveball.
To tweak your current deck, I'd look at subbing out Valkyrie, Mini Pekka, or Skeleton Army for Arrows. You also might like to try out substituting Hog for a Giant. A Giant followed up with any of a Musketeer, Balloon, Spear Goblins, or Skeleton Army can do a lot of damage.
Hope this helps.