Jinxed
Gold Member
2004.. didnt age well
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Current Tencent exec Shawn Layden says console arms race has plateaued
- Thread starter ArtHands
- Start date
iamvin22
Industry Verified
Yes, but the console landscape would greatly benefit if nvidia was working with Sony. Cerny, saw this and that's.... You know what I'll keep my mouth shut.
OverHeat
« generous god »
S0ULZB0URNE
Member
Along with the David Jaffe.
bender
What time is it?
darrylgorn
Member
awwr999999
Member
The cost of making games doubles each generation and costs have been too high since PS3.
What you're talking about will happen on a limited scale as a means of selling GPUs to PC gamers but it's not going to be where the bulk of gaming goes.
Games that cost the least to make and can be made fastest are the future of console gaming because they sell for the same price as more expensive games that take much longer to make.
The current console race is between PlayStation and Nintendo to see who can drop costs and shorten development times the most.
Switch game development is viewed as inexpensive and fast in contrast to the PlayStation's x86 PC games.
PS2 game development time and expense are significantly lower than those of the Switch.
SNES game development time and expense are significantly lower than those of the Switch.
ByWatterson
Member
I just genuinely don't need any pearls of wisdom from anyone who works for the CCP.
That's just me.
That's just me.
Heisenberg007
Gold Journalism
"Former PlayStation exec."
Not current Tencent exec?
Jeez, I wonder why.
Not current Tencent exec?
Jeez, I wonder why.
snapdragon
Member
GoodNintendo won
kevboard
Member
sure. but now consider that Nintendo basically made a slim revision of the GameCube, and sold 101 million units of it simply by bundling a new controller with it.
meanwhile Sony lost hundreds of dollars per PS3 sold for the first year or so, and Microsoft also sold at a loss + had the RRoD that cost them millions.
now imagine the R&D cost differences between the PS360 and the Wii. most of the R&D of the Wii was purely the new controller, given that the CPU/GPU were essentially the same.
and now add the development cost for their system seller first party titles. what cost more to develop, Mario Galaxy... or Halo 3? Skyward Sword or Killzone 2?
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James Sawyer Ford
Member
PS3 still ended up selling 100M consoles, and 360 nearly as much, despite early issues. These flaws weren't because of "more powerful hardware" as Iwata claimed, but convoluted design (PS3) or quality issues (360).
PS4 and PS5 fixed the flawed nature of the PS3, continued raising the hardware bar, and have thrived. So my point stands.
SportsFan581
Member
I get what he is saying in general. The phrasing is just a little quirky in places. The PS4/X1 gen really brought the graphics to good enough levels for me, I appreciate some of the next-gen eye candy, sure. But, at the end of the day, those GPUs could get the job done in a reasonable way, the SSD and the CPU were the more important upgrades. Oddly enough, Nintendo is in the best position in this regard because they really haven't advanced to that consistently good enough level of visuals yet. The frames per second thing just comes down to the developers and what they feel needs to be included to make the game they want to make, we've had some 60fps games all throughout the 3D era on much weaker hardware than we have today.
I don't read it as an attack on Sony or salty at all either. In fact, you could take it as being preemptively defensive about the PS6. How much of an upgrade is Sony going to get there in comparison to the PS5 Pro, especially if they don't want to go $700 on the mainstream box.
I don't read it as an attack on Sony or salty at all either. In fact, you could take it as being preemptively defensive about the PS6. How much of an upgrade is Sony going to get there in comparison to the PS5 Pro, especially if they don't want to go $700 on the mainstream box.
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kevboard
Member
well, the Wii was the start. the Switch is the current version of that.
143 million sold. and the hardware is an off the shelf mobile chip, with zero customisation, that they probably got for dirt cheap as Nvidia was stuck with them and no buyers as everyone flocked to Qualcomm and Mediatek.
dirt cheap R&D, a cheap deal on a powerful mobile chip, dirt cheap development budgets. all that and their games outsell nearly any other first party titles. with Mario Kart 8 Deluxe selling 50 million copies. an improved port of a last gen title.
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Stu_Hart
Member
While getting whooped by the least powerful console at that time. His main point was that graphics doesn't mean anything and the cost is getting higher. It's all about experiences and sony/ms would eventually hit a wall.
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jufonuk
not tag worthy
Well hopefully they can continue the success with the switch 2
I remember in the leap to HD consoles Nintendo sat it out to get to grips with HD games - if memory serves they were made fun of as the brand new shiny machines rolled out, the Wii did ok back then.
The game cube failing was a blessing in disguise for them.
If Sony and MS can look at it like that learn from what they did that didn’t work and adapt then they should be ok ok the long run.
But it just seems they are on a path of
for their machines
James Sawyer Ford
Member
Xbox and PS3 collectively sold nearly 200M and split market share, so “higher power” whooped the “least powerful console”
What is successful for Nintendo doesn’t suddenly mean chasing more power won’t also be for others, so Iwata’s quote aged like pig vomit
Actually what Nintendo said and does. Hardware is much more powerful now any almost anything can be done with it. Only thing that limits now is the budget of a game. Graphics are more than good enough for a gen (even on switch) now that most people can life with that. So there is not really a point of new Hardware only to make something look a bit better.
It is really time that also big studios focus on gameplay, story and atmosphere alone. We don't need hyper realistic games, we need good games. Good graphics don't make good games.
The other thing that got out of control are marketing budgets that nowadays seem to be higher than the development budgets. That doesn't make sense anymore as sales must get higher and higher just to get in the marketing costs. This is another point that got to big over time.
It is really time that also big studios focus on gameplay, story and atmosphere alone. We don't need hyper realistic games, we need good games. Good graphics don't make good games.
The other thing that got out of control are marketing budgets that nowadays seem to be higher than the development budgets. That doesn't make sense anymore as sales must get higher and higher just to get in the marketing costs. This is another point that got to big over time.
Akuji
Member
pasterpl
Member
Yeah, tell him to shut each time you don’t like what he is saying. I recommend you go live in Russia or North Korea, you would love it there, everyone is saying happy things there. /s
SkylineRKR
Member
New generation of gamers are todays kids and they fire up Minecraft, Fortnite and Roblox on whatever device. They don't push state of the art graphics and these kids don't seem to care much. Its different from my generation who wanted to play the new Quake or even new FF game with improved visuals.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
They aren't happy with graphics ending at PS4 levels. Trust me on this. You'll see once GTA 6 releases. There just hasn't been enough current gen only games to show gamers what PS5\Xbox Series X level power can do for a game.
Zacfoldor
Member
This whole length of a game thing isn't really viable, it's personal. He just wants to be able to finish a game again becuase he's gotten old.
Here's an example.
Final Fantasy Rebirth had tons of filler and that content stretched out the length of the game.
SHRINKFLATION in videogames!
Here's an example.
Final Fantasy Rebirth had tons of filler and that content stretched out the length of the game.
However it was also missing rocket town. Rocket town is a small area that takes an hour or so to beat. However, it is also very difficult to program a space launch and the Palmer scripted events and all the GOOD stuff the game has in that section. So instead they created 20 or 30 hours of filler instead of 1 hour of good game content, the expensive content. That is because it is easier/cheaper/effortless to create the filler. Length of time a game takes to beat is not necessarily directly proportional to the effort that went into the game. 5 rocket towns would be short but high quality and expensive. 100 hours of filler is cheap and easy. Length of the game is not directly correlated to costs. However it is correlated to the amount of time Shawn Layden has to play videogames nowadays, which is very little. I don't want to upend the industry so Layden can beat Wukong in 8 hours and I get less for my money. I'm old too and can smell this bullshit a mile away.
SHRINKFLATION in videogames!
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thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Member
What if Tencent are getting ready to launch their own console?
That's maybe a part of it too lol.
I do think Tencent's cooking something up at this point, I just hope it isn't just a streaming device :/
He's right to an extent though. Neither PS5 or Series X are being "pushed" in the way, say, the PS2 or PS3 were being pushed to their limits. Maybe we see that around 2025/2026 but for now most of the best-looking games are just PS4/XBO-level titles with better IQ, higher resolution, and more stable framerates. These are still some very good-looking games, but nothing that's felt like going from GT2 to GT3, or from Jak 2 to Uncharted 2.
Budget, dev times, and manpower are the limiting factors now, not the hardware tech. I wouldn't be surprised if both the next PS and next Xbox are only "marginally" more powerful than PS5 Pro in raw GPU metrics (TF, geometry culling rate, clock speed etc.).
That's maybe a part of it too lol.
I do think Tencent's cooking something up at this point, I just hope it isn't just a streaming device :/
When asked about future console hardware, Layden said he believed that a power boost on its own would not appeal to the majority of players.
“It has plateaued. We’re at the stage of hardware development that I call ‘only dogs can hear the difference’,” he said.
This guy really thinks hardware has hit the ceiling with consoles?
PC gamers....
He's right to an extent though. Neither PS5 or Series X are being "pushed" in the way, say, the PS2 or PS3 were being pushed to their limits. Maybe we see that around 2025/2026 but for now most of the best-looking games are just PS4/XBO-level titles with better IQ, higher resolution, and more stable framerates. These are still some very good-looking games, but nothing that's felt like going from GT2 to GT3, or from Jak 2 to Uncharted 2.
Budget, dev times, and manpower are the limiting factors now, not the hardware tech. I wouldn't be surprised if both the next PS and next Xbox are only "marginally" more powerful than PS5 Pro in raw GPU metrics (TF, geometry culling rate, clock speed etc.).
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Radical_3d
Member
Can relate.
RodriGames40
Member
Nintendo is about to get a 10x or so power leap, so if you wanna count that as something stupid... Make your own conclusions.
dreamstation
Member
These grubs just move from company to company don't they? They're like the aliens from Independence Day.
MrMephistoX
Member
To be fair people aren’t complaining about Switch graphics so much at this stage as they are fidelity: the frame rate and lack of anti-aliasing suck but a hypothetical switch 2 that enhances TOTK so it’s a a smooth 60 FPS like you can get on emulators without jaggies would be enough for most gamers. We’re talking maybe PS4 pro level performance. For me realism has diminishing returns when interactivity and game play take a back seat like COD: I still can’t destroy a damn crate but they look better each gen.
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Zacfoldor
Member
Bwahahahaha!~ One of the only ways you could get me to immediately invest in Xbox. I heard he's too busy stuck on Metroid Dread and Astrobot.
Layden is pretty good but he wears his heart on his sleeve and imho he is an actual gamer, that's why he wants shorter games, lol, just question his motivations, because gamers are greedy. We want to beat all the games. He's engineering away his fomo by getting fromsoft to shorten dark souls 4 to 10 hours.
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FoxMcChief
Gold Member
Enter the market China!
Hotel Security
Member
It's been a weird console gen.
-There's no reason to buy an Xbox because every exclusive for it also comes out on PC. Folks can buy one of the other consoles and then just use the PC for the few Xbox games that may be exclusives...and it seems they have less and less of these as the years go on.
-For the Playstation 5, it's been out for years but most developers have been pumping out PS4 versions of every new game, not to mention indie games still constantly coming out for it. I'm a PS4 owner and have seen no reason to upgrade since I still have 20-30+ games on my PS4 to get through.
-Then there's the Switch which is the only "traditional" console with a bunch of exclusives and no other way to play them.
So it's a generation where there's been no reason to buy an Xbox OR a PS5 and both via bizarre business practices...though in the case of PS maybe they can't stop devs from making PS4 versions of everything.
-There's no reason to buy an Xbox because every exclusive for it also comes out on PC. Folks can buy one of the other consoles and then just use the PC for the few Xbox games that may be exclusives...and it seems they have less and less of these as the years go on.
-For the Playstation 5, it's been out for years but most developers have been pumping out PS4 versions of every new game, not to mention indie games still constantly coming out for it. I'm a PS4 owner and have seen no reason to upgrade since I still have 20-30+ games on my PS4 to get through.
-Then there's the Switch which is the only "traditional" console with a bunch of exclusives and no other way to play them.
So it's a generation where there's been no reason to buy an Xbox OR a PS5 and both via bizarre business practices...though in the case of PS maybe they can't stop devs from making PS4 versions of everything.
Jaffe? Has he done anything at all since bailing after God of War 1?
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Topher
Identifies as young
I agree with you, but I'm not certain that's what he is saying. He is referencing "hardware development" which I think is odd considering PS5 Pro is set to introduce ML components that have been fantastic on the PC side of things. Those are real hardware enhancements that shouldn't be overlooked.
Madserb2023
Member
I wish he wasn't right but I have 6 nephews and about the same same number of second cousins and they are all under 13 and they only seem to ever play Roblox. That's it. One of them was even playing it on a tablet at about 10 fps and they were perfectly happy to do so. That's the new market whether we like it or not. I would be shocked if there are many under 35s picking up the PRO.
Topher
Identifies as young
Yeah, but just because young people are still playing roblox doesn't mean that is what they will play long term. My sons were playing roblox a decade ago. They have long since moved on to more mature games. I think the mobile gaming has expanded the market, but is not replacing it.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Proof: GTAV constantly in the top 10 since it's original release.
thicc_girls_are_teh_best
Member
We'll likely get to that point by next gen...for both metrics. If you're talking native 4K & 60 w/ full path RT AND more advanced physics....then I dunno. But we're also getting to a point where upscaled reconstructions are looking better than native resolution, so I don't think hitting native 4K will matter anymore unless the target is to upscale to some faux-16K which won't be a requirement anytime soon if ever.
Some of these other things tho, I think they can be done with smart co-processors, and having a good enough memory bandwidth alongside suitable increase in cache bandwidth & size.
And
TBF, SIE themselves have given up on PSVR2. It's a dead product at this point that'll get token support at best. If they were investing in a PSVR3 addressing the shortcomings of PSVR2 (no BC, only one SKU, high-priced SKU as only option, no wireless support, no separate controllers to buy in place of replacement needs etc.), then I'd agree they're investing i.e present tense.
But I do have a lot of doubts they'll be doing a PSVR3 line next gen. Shame, too, because I'd of liked to see a console with a true focus on VR/AR out-of-the-box experiences, while still having flexibility for headset or traditional gaming. We're not getting that from SIE or Microsoft next gen, nor Switch 2.
C'mon Tencent, do it!! 
This. I think this is the next frontier because budgets, time of dev, and # people required for AAA games has grown to unsustainable numbers. Tech in new hardware that can reduce requirements in those three areas will be quite liberating.
And for me personally, none of the upcoming systems are going to have a deeply integrated MR experience to them. So if they aren't doing that, and they aren't gonna have tech in the system & in SDK API packages for developers to help return AAA output closer to PS3/360 gen alongside making AA dev more viable commercially....then what is the point of new hardware?
Slightly prettier versions of games we already have, that'll take even longer to be made and more GAAS trend-chasing with AAA games getting even more homogenized and safe? Even more price increases? None of that sounds appealing at all.
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mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
You speak as if Sony has been sucking over the last 10 years. What's going on in this thread?
Why do you guys speak as if Sony and Microsoft are in the same spot when it comes to the business of video games? Can you all please STOP doing this?! Plus games like Helldivers 2 wouldn't even be playable on the PS4. So why are we talking as if power doesn't matter?
tmlDan
Member
"losing people"? who are they losing, is this in your own head? lol
Unless you confused Xbox with PS
Wildebeest
Member
When they are not sure, people associate high prices with quality. The more it becomes hard to work out if graphics are getting better or not, the more people will either polarise on just saying "fuck it" and sticking with last gen or buying the absolute most expensive thing they can find to get peace of mind from buying quality.
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mayham2199
Member
I think the problem is people see kids playing these free games or on their phones and think that's what they want. It's like nobody realizes these are kids with no money or jobs what other choice do they have if their parents say no to the $500 console and $70 games? IMO it's all these kids can get because I'll tell you right now. If my son comes up to me and ask me to buy him a $70 game I'm going to tell him hell no.
My cousins son started off mobile only because that's all he had. Once my cousin got him a PS5 he's played ER and Destiny 2 and a bunch of other AAA games. All of his friends with PS5\PS4 do account sharing to because even though they have jobs now their money is still very limited and they don't want to spend it. They are constantly logging in and out of each others accounts and doing that trick with primary/secondary console.
KXVXII9X
Member
Anytime someone has tried something different or novel, gamers at large have been very quick to dismiss it without giving it time to improve or be iterated on. Everything is labeled a gimmick. Even the Nintendo Switch had a TON of pushback at launch. Now look how it turned out. VR is being treated with a lot of negativity even though it still has a lot of room for potential. It has come very far in such a short timeframe.
Raytracing is great for more simple games like Minecraft where you can really push the potential. Most modern games are trying to push way too many things at once.
The industry has really stopped prioritizing game design. Visual clarity, visual and audio cues, physics, smarter AI, and new gameplay ideas have massively declined after the PS3 era.
DeepEnigma
Gold Member
Perception confirmation biases.
peter42O
Neo Member
I agree with Layden for the most part.
Graphically, im someone that will sacrifice graphics in favor of performance every time. I can play games from last generation like HZD, GOW 2018, AC Origins/Odyssey and even Black Flag and have no issues or complaints with the graphics. They all look great and still hold up. Publishers/developers keep chasing power and graphics then wonder why their games miss expectations and under-perform.
As for consoles, they've stagnated. Sony hasn't grown at all. They simply retain what they've always had for the most part. Microsoft has declined and Nintendo while doing great is still less when they were selling everyone a console AND a portable handheld. Microsoft makes a shit ton of revenue because well, they're Microsoft, Sony makes a shit ton of revenue not because they've grown but because they increased prices so revenue would obviously increase with the same amount of sales as last generation and Nintendo makes a shit ton of revenue and more profits than the other two due to the fact that they don't spend the money on hardware and software. They're not spending $300M on graphically impressive games because they don't need to do that in order to succeed.
Future wise, I see Nintendo picking up right where they left off with Switch when they release Switch 2 barring some kind of horrible decision which I don't see happening, Sony will continue with their same 100m+ user install base intact while Microsoft will probably be around half that but won't matter as they'll be the most dominant publisher in the industry due to all the IP's that they own and I wouldn't be shocked to see them acquire more IP's within the next five years.
Graphically, im someone that will sacrifice graphics in favor of performance every time. I can play games from last generation like HZD, GOW 2018, AC Origins/Odyssey and even Black Flag and have no issues or complaints with the graphics. They all look great and still hold up. Publishers/developers keep chasing power and graphics then wonder why their games miss expectations and under-perform.
As for consoles, they've stagnated. Sony hasn't grown at all. They simply retain what they've always had for the most part. Microsoft has declined and Nintendo while doing great is still less when they were selling everyone a console AND a portable handheld. Microsoft makes a shit ton of revenue because well, they're Microsoft, Sony makes a shit ton of revenue not because they've grown but because they increased prices so revenue would obviously increase with the same amount of sales as last generation and Nintendo makes a shit ton of revenue and more profits than the other two due to the fact that they don't spend the money on hardware and software. They're not spending $300M on graphically impressive games because they don't need to do that in order to succeed.
Future wise, I see Nintendo picking up right where they left off with Switch when they release Switch 2 barring some kind of horrible decision which I don't see happening, Sony will continue with their same 100m+ user install base intact while Microsoft will probably be around half that but won't matter as they'll be the most dominant publisher in the industry due to all the IP's that they own and I wouldn't be shocked to see them acquire more IP's within the next five years.
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
So then what's the problem? If everybody is making more money, what's the issue? If you think Nintendo will continue being great and Sony will continue having a 100+ million console baseline (while charging more money per item), I'm have a hard time seeing the issue.
Northeastmonk
Gold Member
I recall reading comments here that suggested a switch to PC. These comments stick out to me because I’m still a day 1 console gamer. I swear I’ve seen it more than just a handful of times. Microsoft lost the people who were mainly XBO because the PS4 did so well. People got angry at Sony for X or Y reasons this gen and switched to PC. Heighten that feeling when consoles launch around the cost of a decent PC. I don’t follow that logic, but I know it exists.
Northeastmonk
Gold Member
You speak as if Sony has been sucking over the last 10 years. What's going on in this thread?
Why do you guys speak as if Sony and Microsoft are in the same spot when it comes to the business of video games? Can you all please STOP doing this?! Plus games like Helldivers 2 wouldn't even be playable on the PS4. So why are we talking as if power doesn't matter?
One thing I’ve found difficult to ignore are the staff changes at Sony. I’ve got my E3 Theater Experience lanyards when that was a thing back with the PS4. While I like PS. It’s the only console I pay over a thousand of dollars for games over the years.
It use to be easy to look at “Greatness Awaits” and get what that means. This new page after E3 is done with and new management comes in raises some questions. What do you expect? The push towards service games and then their losses with Concord causing financial issues. Maybe things are fine and there isn’t anything to worry about.
I’m sure PS isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. I also realize gamers are incredibly impatient. Not all, but a lot of them are. They’re ready to throw in the towel if they’re sitting without a new game for 5-6 months. Sony has to keep announcing new content for the consumer to hype up. What happens when that dries up for the sake of chasing trends and mobile numbers?
HogIsland
Member
no joke, we could see Chinese developers favoring PC and really exposing the gulf between hardware capabilities and lagging software
Miyazaki’s Slave
Gold Member
Welcome to the industries new narrative: "We want to serve you, our players, in the best way we possible can, but we need to work at this from both the provider and consumer level at the same time. We understand that players wants/expectations from games has increased and players need to understand the measures developers need to take to surpass those expectations!"
But don't worry....AI will take care of those "unsustainable costs" and give you the experience you want!
Pressing a button on your controller, telling your platform you want to fight enemies that look like some video you watched on TikTok, have a quick banter with your console adjusting "your new creation" and BAM....its magically there for you....and then its there for everyone because you are helping to make the content for the developers now. One huge happy family focused on making quality content for the players!
But don't worry....AI will take care of those "unsustainable costs" and give you the experience you want!
Pressing a button on your controller, telling your platform you want to fight enemies that look like some video you watched on TikTok, have a quick banter with your console adjusting "your new creation" and BAM....its magically there for you....and then its there for everyone because you are helping to make the content for the developers now. One huge happy family focused on making quality content for the players!
sncvsrtoip
Member
Hmm maybe good he is no longer exec ;d Current consoles straggling with any ue5 game droping res under 1080p and he is saying like we have photorealism with 240fps in 8k vr mode 
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