Here's some hot analysis of a few people who seem to be on two different sides, and how my gut tells me that both people can't be despair at the same time. I kinda stopped at just a few groups, because there's lots of people and this analysis doesn't seem that helpful in hindsight (at least at this stage). But I already typed it up, so yeah.
Makai v Crab: Seems like tension has been bubbling between these two since the "RC Incident" of day 1. Day 2 Makai pushed for Crab over kgtrep. Day 3, Crab put a vote on Makai.
From what I've read, Crab seems convinced Makai was hinting at an investigative role. Looking at his Day 1 role claim
post, I didn't see a strong hint towards an investigation role. But I might have f5'ed past that shit. Anyways, it's hard to imagine a player who has the best intentions for the school would hint so early at what would be one of the more important roles for hope. It'd be a real bad play.
Also what's with his bit about dog whistles lol.
Makai said:
@CzarTim, a dogwhistle is a message designed to be understood exclusively by certain people. You said something that makes me think you are Hope.
I tried to understand what that was all about. Did Makai decipher a crazy breadcrumb post? But then I found Czar's post a page earlier that cleared it up a bit:
guys I fixed my dog whistle
Now, I don't think Makai went on exactly to say what that certain something Czar said to convince him he was hope. But honestly, I'm probably just overthinking it.
Anyways a page later Crab
said that if he was mafia, he'd "100% percent" kill Makai on night 1 due to various reasons. But of course that didn't happen. Why did despair kill ordinary loser student franconp instead of goshu (who hinted at a power role, if not a switcher) or Makai (who role claimed)?
At least for Makai, I think he had given enough suspicion that the school will kill him down the line. Instead of wasting a night kill on Makai, they went for a guess instead. On night 1, they might have bumped into salvapot, confirming him to be a power role, and killed him on night 2 as a result. Maybe.
Maybe Makai is still alive because he's scum. I remember in Animal Crossing mafia that franconp outed himself as investigator on like what, day 2 or 3. And then he magically survived for quite a long time, and turned out to be scum. (Although this isn't a perfect analogy. But whatever!)
Maybe despair is like Hannibal, and they're letting Makai stew for a bit while they kill other good choices that they bumped into during the night.
anywho, with all the drama between Crab and Makai, I'm convinced that it's not possible for both of them to be scum. There's too much heat between these too, I can't see any logic to this type of despair play.
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Crab v Cornburrito: Can't see both of them being despair. Like, the confusing exchange between crab and burrito at the tail end of Day 1. What would be the point of that shit if they were both despair. And then Corn trying to move against Crab (later changing his mind) on Day 2. This doesn't smell like despair collusion.
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Makai v. Czar: Looking at the last few pages, can't see them both being despair. Czar's arguments with Makai about AB's plan. My gut says if they happen to be both despair having a fake argument, then they deserve some high fives for fooling my gut.
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Terrabyte v. Vivivioogi: If they happen to be both despair, and they decided to throw vivi under the bus, this would be some odd timing, no? Therefore, my gut says they both can't be despair.
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Absolutbro v. Pau: If they're somehow both despair, then AB's plan to kill Pau would be a pretty unnecessary and bad gambit in my opinion.
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AbsoluteBro + Czar: If they're both despair then...
AB as some type of non-ninja despair went into salvapot's room to kill him (or do something else nefarious like role block). Then Czar is like "oh no he might get outed" so he makes a nefarious plan. He does a fake role claim, and says he did a one-shot investigation of AB. And because it's one-shot people can't be asking Czar to do anything else. And because he's now an ordinary student, despair wouldn't bother killing him.
Then AB comes up with the sleepwalker role to explain his movement, and how by luck he went into salvapot's room. And then through unfortunate coincidence salvapot ended up dead.
And then they come up with a nefarious plan to kill innocent Pau (with Czar having a fake argument against it). AB will outline a plan that the school won't ever agree to. "Kill Pau, oh she isn't despair? Then you should kill me after, and then kill Czar. Lets waste three days on this." And then Czar will be all like "no guys if you do this plan, KILL ME first."
Also for lols they both agreed to use the secret message strategy.
I'm not quite 100 percent convinced this is some bold despair play. I can't see the reward for this high risk play. I'm sure someone will outline it for me later, but...I just can't. It puts possibly half of the despair club into needless heat over what, nothing happened yet. There wasn't a mounting vote against AB. Were they afraid Pau would say something? I don't know...just maybe a little too bold for my taste.
Now perhaps only Czar is despair, and used an easy role claim. He picked AB, a player despair knew wasn't one of them. Czar says "oh yes I can confirm AB is hope". I don't believe he specified the role name (which from a normal standpoint is understandable), just that it was hope. Then AB thinks Czar is a good guy. The school, with AB confirming how hope he is, is more convinced of Czar's goodness. I'm not saying I believe that. But for me, that is a more realistic scenario than Czar and AB despair colluding.
