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Danganronpa Mafia |OT| Grin and Bear It
- Thread starter LaunchpadMcQ
- Start date
Royal_Flush
Member
Re: "Kalor" had to acquire their costume first
Unless Sawneeks is Despair that doesn't check out. I'm assuming that the person would have been seen as themselves during that night. So if they got to Kalor's room N1, Sawneeks would have seen them. If hey got there N2, AB would have seen their real identity (because he passed by Kalor's room).
It could be completely possible tough if Sawneeks is Despair.
Re: AB's investigation
I think we can see all of AB's target as cleared as long as nothing extraordinary happens.
Re: Talk about Pau and Ty4on being Despair
Still possible. Some people (including me, tough I kind of pulled the emergency break after I realized it) need to learn how to keep their mouth shut in case Despair hasn't figured out yet what's going on there.
Re: Who to lynch
The decision in my opinion really is between *Splinter and Sawneeks.
PRO Sawneeks:
- If "Kalor" got to choose their costume the obvious pick would be the person directly across.
- No person so far can verify her story (except "Kalor")
CONTRA Sawneeks:
- If she flips Hope and Pau/Ty4on get killed tonight we have no roaming PRs left (Tough both Sawneeks and Pau/Ty4on have a very restrictive movement ruleset that Despair easily can adjust to))
- Pau would not have seen "Kalor" if she headed towards SalvaPot N2. (If CzarTim killed SalvaPot: What was "Kalor" doing?)
- I still don't feel her being Despair
PRO *Splinter:
- I have a worse gut feeling on him than on Sawneeks. He often asks for reads yet my notes don't have a whole lot of his reads. Also that huge CB post at the beginning if D3.
CONTRA *Splinter:
- If he was able to choose his costume (note the "if"), why would he pick Kalor over Ty4on? (Pau had not claimed by the time "Kalor" was seen the first time)
I don't follow.
Unless Sawneeks is Despair that doesn't check out. I'm assuming that the person would have been seen as themselves during that night. So if they got to Kalor's room N1, Sawneeks would have seen them. If hey got there N2, AB would have seen their real identity (because he passed by Kalor's room).
It could be completely possible tough if Sawneeks is Despair.
Re: AB's investigation
I think we can see all of AB's target as cleared as long as nothing extraordinary happens.
Re: Talk about Pau and Ty4on being Despair
Still possible. Some people (including me, tough I kind of pulled the emergency break after I realized it) need to learn how to keep their mouth shut in case Despair hasn't figured out yet what's going on there.
Re: Who to lynch
The decision in my opinion really is between *Splinter and Sawneeks.
PRO Sawneeks:
- If "Kalor" got to choose their costume the obvious pick would be the person directly across.
- No person so far can verify her story (except "Kalor")
CONTRA Sawneeks:
- If she flips Hope and Pau/Ty4on get killed tonight we have no roaming PRs left (Tough both Sawneeks and Pau/Ty4on have a very restrictive movement ruleset that Despair easily can adjust to))
- Pau would not have seen "Kalor" if she headed towards SalvaPot N2. (If CzarTim killed SalvaPot: What was "Kalor" doing?)
- I still don't feel her being Despair
PRO *Splinter:
- I have a worse gut feeling on him than on Sawneeks. He often asks for reads yet my notes don't have a whole lot of his reads. Also that huge CB post at the beginning if D3.
CONTRA *Splinter:
- If he was able to choose his costume (note the "if"), why would he pick Kalor over Ty4on? (Pau had not claimed by the time "Kalor" was seen the first time)
I don't follow.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
CornBurrito
Member
I actually covered this in my D4 mega post.
Interestingly enough we've somewhat cleared Terrabyte since AB visited him. And we cleared AB. I'm choosing to believe Makai for the time being. Which means... if I am correct you and kingkitty are very likely to be Despair.
CornBurrito
Member
On the other hand, assuming kingkitty and Splinter are Despair, that means 3 Despair voted for Sawneeks and the remaining 2-3 voted for Czartim. Which means I may very well be wrong about my "Despair wanted to keep Czar alive" hypothesis.
If Despair actually wanted Sawneeks alive, then I need to change my thinking. People who voted for Czar on D3:
Ty4on
Swamped
Sawneeks
goshujinsama
Pau
Barrylocke - Mackenzie
Crab
CornBurrito
Kalor
ViviOggi - Royal
Zippedpinhead
Bolded are certifiable Hope. This leaves us with Ty4on/Pau/Sawneeks/Swamped/Makenzie/Royal.
Of those I think Ty4on, Pau, and Royal are Hope.
Which leaves me with Sawneeks, Swamped, and Mackenzie as suspects.
So unless something big changes my current suspect list is: Sawneeks/Splinter/Kingkitty/Mackenzie/Swamped.
If Despair actually wanted Sawneeks alive, then I need to change my thinking. People who voted for Czar on D3:
Ty4on
Swamped
Sawneeks
goshujinsama
Pau
Barrylocke - Mackenzie
Crab
CornBurrito
Kalor
ViviOggi - Royal
Zippedpinhead
Bolded are certifiable Hope. This leaves us with Ty4on/Pau/Sawneeks/Swamped/Makenzie/Royal.
Of those I think Ty4on, Pau, and Royal are Hope.
Which leaves me with Sawneeks, Swamped, and Mackenzie as suspects.
So unless something big changes my current suspect list is: Sawneeks/Splinter/Kingkitty/Mackenzie/Swamped.
CornBurrito
Member
y u do this.....
I think I left enough hints for Makai that he should be able to confirm me (maybe). If he's not sure I'm the lucky student, he can ask me questions that only lucky students would know.
The two things that kept me from role claiming:
1) I wanted to be attacked, causing another lost night.
2) I wasn't sure of Makai's alignment...however because of how the PM was worded, I'm 91.3 percent confident we both share the hope alignment. Also because Makai brought this same thing up, made me more confident of his hopeness.
Considering that I'm feeling more heat on the suspicions list, and Makai wanted me to roleclaim on Day 6, I decided to let the truth flow.
The two things that kept me from role claiming:
1) I wanted to be attacked, causing another lost night.
2) I wasn't sure of Makai's alignment...however because of how the PM was worded, I'm 91.3 percent confident we both share the hope alignment. Also because Makai brought this same thing up, made me more confident of his hopeness.
Considering that I'm feeling more heat on the suspicions list, and Makai wanted me to roleclaim on Day 6, I decided to let the truth flow.
*sigh*
I was just in the middle of clearing you, but that works too I guess.
I shouldn't be posting right now, so I'll explain my point to Corn after work
Yeah, I actually miss SalvaPot in this regard, it was fun having back-and-forths with him. I think more suspicion will fall on me in the coming day phases though (if I remain alive, and I might do since Despair seems to be obsessed with hunting PRs).
What? But I'm the Lucky Student!
No, I'm definitely not, but I am waiting to see if someone counter claims!
just out of curiosity I'd like to see that work, whenever you have time.
Just a very quick thought before i have to rush off - does AB outing Pau as PR make sense now that we know without a shadow of doubt that he was Hope? I'll need to look up Czar's reaction to that. In fact, i was operating on the assumption that AB and Czar were whoring together on that D3 gambit, so I'll probably need to revisit that at some point.
Royal_Flush
Member
Sure...
Terrabyte20xx
Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
Some thoughts:
Assuming none are lying, which is admittedly a big assumption, I think I've figured out how Sawneeks and Pau/Ty4on's roles tick. I won't state my educated guess until I have permission from them, but I feel my mental image makes sense.
If Makai and King Kitty can confirm eachother, we might just be able to really narrow down this suspect list.
I have one final question for Sawneeks. Depending the answer, my theory could change drastically, but I can't have a complete picture without it.
Sawneeks, where do you go at night? I don't care what you do or how you get there, just the name of the location.
Assuming none are lying, which is admittedly a big assumption, I think I've figured out how Sawneeks and Pau/Ty4on's roles tick. I won't state my educated guess until I have permission from them, but I feel my mental image makes sense.
If Makai and King Kitty can confirm eachother, we might just be able to really narrow down this suspect list.
I have one final question for Sawneeks. Depending the answer, my theory could change drastically, but I can't have a complete picture without it.
Sawneeks, where do you go at night? I don't care what you do or how you get there, just the name of the location.
Well....
Kingkitty's claim kind of makes sense, actually. I mean it could explain Day 1 at the very least anyway. I'm going to wait for Makai to say something first before I say anything else though.
I would love to hear your idea but I would prefer it if you did not say it quite yet. Only because you probably do understand how it works and I'm not yet going to out my full role or anything else on it unless I absolutely need to.
Kingkitty's claim kind of makes sense, actually. I mean it could explain Day 1 at the very least anyway. I'm going to wait for Makai to say something first before I say anything else though.
I would love to hear your idea but I would prefer it if you did not say it quite yet. Only because you probably do understand how it works and I'm not yet going to out my full role or anything else on it unless I absolutely need to.
Maybe 'clear' is a strong word, this was mostly for Corn. He's put a loooot of stock in his D3 voting theory, and I had reason to believe it was false.
Anyway, he basically saw what I was getting at:
If you look at the votes for Sawneeks (i.e. to save CzarTim), the only "suspicious persons" (according to Makai's list) are me and kingkitty. Now I'm assuming I'll be voted out today (as I said earlier, the most 'likely' theory is me=mimic), so tomorrow it will be known that I am Hope. At that point the only non-confirmed person voting Tim will be kingkitty, and I find it very hard to believe that if Despair really wanted to spare Tim, they couldn't figure out how to get more than one of their votes against him,
So basically the theory was bunk, doesn't really clear kitty but its one less reason to suspect him. I might have dug through the thread for some other stuff if I wanted to push it, but I don't know how much I was willing to bet on my hunch.
My hunch being that you were lucky; guessed it here and here
Terrabyte20xx
Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
Was there a reason she should?
I've known Kingkitty is my buddy since this post:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=176235456&postcount=2869
He used several phrases from our role PM. He didn't want to come out, so I didn't say anything.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=176235456&postcount=2869
He used several phrases from our role PM. He didn't want to come out, so I didn't say anything.
Terrabyte20xx
Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
That's all I needed to know.
I'll keep my theory quiet for now, but I will state it's results for now because the evidence in front of me is pretty overwhelming.
Rest
Christina Mackenzie
Swamped
Corn Burrito
Royal_Flush
*Splinter
The Remnants of Dispair are among them.
Is this the same list Corn posted last night, minus kingkitty who has since role claimed?
I feel like we aren't getting anywhere without new information...
Royal_Flush
Member
Royal_Flush
Member
The image is in the quoted post. Also all UP are Kalor
Terrabyte20xx
Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
Did we ever come to an consensus on who "Kalor" would be if Swamped wasn't? Because I'm positive that Swamped is clean.
Was it *Splinter?
Was it *Splinter?
Under the current assumptions, I am Kalor
Terrabyte20xx
Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
Thank you.
Going over the map and using who Pau/AB saw on Nights 3 to 5 the only option for the identity of the mimic is Splinter. Pau has always seen 'Kalor' since Night 2 meaning she always passes this this person on the way to her destination. Since she would always pass by Francomp, AB, and Splinter every night and as 2 of those players are dead and confirmed Hope this leaves only Splinter as the culprit for who she would always pass.
CornBurrito
Member
There's really no new information to get. We could dig through all the previous posts and see if we magically notice something new. Or somehow change our current opinions based on our previous analysis. But I think that's a waste of time.
Fight Club was a dud last night since no new people were seen. I actually think Fight Club is now a total dud. Pau's movement is known (assuming Ty4on was telling the truth) so Despair can easily avoid her. Despair doesn't even need the mimic anymore, since all they have to do is kill Sawneeks tonight or tomorrow night and then avoid Pau's range.
I think the only new information we can get at this point is from role PMs.
Terrabyte20xx
Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
I just want to point out:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YukkqhjHIkbB1Bv_W_oDEoqbWuVZheb4yRXbl4HT5ZI/htmlview?pli=1#
Notice who *Splinter voted for, and who he didn't...
VOTE: *Splinter
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YukkqhjHIkbB1Bv_W_oDEoqbWuVZheb4yRXbl4HT5ZI/htmlview?pli=1#
Notice who *Splinter voted for, and who he didn't...
VOTE: *Splinter
I've been in two minds about this, but in a last ditch attempt to move the conversation in a more Hopeful direction...
I am the Super High School Level Programmer
Every night I use my 1337 computer skills to hack into the school's security cameras. I can choose any of the four main facilities to WATCH for activity.
Now my results so far have been kind of disappointing, so I won't share them unless I have permission from Sawneeks to reveal her N1, N5, or both. I think I can say that my N1 result is the reason I tried to defend Sawneeks on D3 (and any other time).
As previously mentioned, those large rooms have seemed wildly unimportant so far, so I always thought it a little strange that we had a role dedicated to watching them. My deduction has been that something important can be observed in these rooms - up until last night I had thought this was the only way a ninja could be 'seen', although I guess mimic works too. The alternative of course is that I'm just not important. Can't all be winners I guess (and this seems a little more plausible now that I know we had a cop).
So yeah. I'm Hope, I suspect Sawneeks is Hope, and Fight Club isn't Hopeless just yet.
I am the Super High School Level Programmer
Every night I use my 1337 computer skills to hack into the school's security cameras. I can choose any of the four main facilities to WATCH for activity.
Now my results so far have been kind of disappointing, so I won't share them unless I have permission from Sawneeks to reveal her N1, N5, or both. I think I can say that my N1 result is the reason I tried to defend Sawneeks on D3 (and any other time).
As previously mentioned, those large rooms have seemed wildly unimportant so far, so I always thought it a little strange that we had a role dedicated to watching them. My deduction has been that something important can be observed in these rooms - up until last night I had thought this was the only way a ninja could be 'seen', although I guess mimic works too. The alternative of course is that I'm just not important. Can't all be winners I guess (and this seems a little more plausible now that I know we had a cop).
So yeah. I'm Hope, I suspect Sawneeks is Hope, and Fight Club isn't Hopeless just yet.
Royal_Flush
Member
Assuming Sawneeks is Hope.
I ordered the list in terms of how much I think they are Despair from posting behaviour alone:
Rest
Christina Mackenzie
*Splinter
Swamped
...
CornBurrito
...
Royal_Flush
Due to map mechanics reason, I think we have to go after *Splinter today. I also think in the *Splinter/Sawneeks choice *Splinter is the way to go if we don't get further information. He is Low Risk/High Reward while Sawneeks is High Risk/High Reward.
However, after going over who AB saw...
On Night 2 he went to investigate Terrabyte20xx meaning he would have passed by Splinter, Pau, and Ty4on on his way there. However, he only mentioned seeing Pau, SalvaPot, and redacted ("kalor") that night and it leads me to wonder if maybe Splinter isn't the mimic but Ty4on is. Has anyone other than Pau even seen him move?
On Night 2 he went to investigate Terrabyte20xx meaning he would have passed by Splinter, Pau, and Ty4on on his way there. However, he only mentioned seeing Pau, SalvaPot, and redacted ("kalor") that night and it leads me to wonder if maybe Splinter isn't the mimic but Ty4on is. Has anyone other than Pau even seen him move?
Royal_Flush
Member
CornBurrito
Member
I err... I don't believe you.
CornBurrito
Member
Ok real talk if we choose to believe every outed PR and trust in ABs skill at interpreting role names:
Swamped
Barrylocke - Mackzenie
CornBurrito
ViviOggi - Royals
Rest
those are the only people left. And I know I'm not Despair which leaves: Swamped/Mackenzie/Royals/Rest.
I really think someone's lying. Whether that be Splinter or Pau/Ty4on.
Swamped
Barrylocke - Mackzenie
CornBurrito
ViviOggi - Royals
Rest
those are the only people left. And I know I'm not Despair which leaves: Swamped/Mackenzie/Royals/Rest.
I really think someone's lying. Whether that be Splinter or Pau/Ty4on.
Huh. Surprised you were able to catch that on two different Nights. I'm curious though, don't say the facilities themselves but could you give the first letter for where you saw me on those Nights?
Err... They each have a different first letter, how does that help?
Royal_Flush
Member
You know, I didn't comment when you first mentioned this. I didn't comment when Zipped mentioned it. But by now I think even the dumbest of Despair has figured out what happened (Assuming that Pau and Ty4on are Hope). We need to think before we post. This is what I meant by
My whole "Tell me where you went N4" thing was based on this. Maybe they would have said the wrong thing and I that would have been confirmation that they are Despair. But *Splinter ruined it (Not that Pau would have likely answered anyway). Well I now can not go down that route without revealing the cause of my suspicion. And if I do and I'm wrong I give up very important information to Despair that they possibly didn't think of yet.
And if Despair hasn't this figured out by now when it was mentioned at least 3 times rather prominently and I'm giving away anything with this post, you can policy lynch me D1 in Season 4.
/rant
Now to other stuff:
My plan right now would be:
1) Lynch *Splinter
2a) If *Splinter flips Mimic, proceed with playing mafia (lynch Rest?)
2b) If *Splinter flips Hope and Ty4on gets killed tonight, proceed playing Mafia (lynch Rest?)
2c) If *Splinter flips Hope and somebody else gets killed tonight (especially if that person is Sawneeks), lynch Ty4on
Zippedpinhead
Member
I have been thinking about the two nights without a death,
I'll make three assumptions: 1) I'm taking makai and King kitty at their word that neither were targeted at night.
2) I'm taking Pau at her word (for movement)
The issue is the no death nights we will start with night 4, AB visiting goshujinsama. This visit could have walked either way. Third assumption) Assuming that both end hallways are the same movement and it is not increasing the distance to move across an aisle, it's 6 steps and an aisle for AB to move to goshu via left hallway, and 6 steps and an aisle to move via the right hallway,
AB didn't indicate a direction, and seeing kalor may have meant that he thought he went via the right side of the map, but what if he went left instead?
I'll hold that thought and jump to who sawneeks saw last night, just AB with no kalor.
Now taking her at her word indicates that "kalor" had to come from *splinter or the top of the map.
However there is Night 3, no "kalor" view from AB, which seems to clear the rest of the top row, and Pau saw "kalor", but so did sawneeks...
This leaves only three possibilities for "kalor" either *splinter (lying about his role today) or sawneeks (lying about her role and who she saw / where she went specifically about night 3) or an outside possibility of Ty4on (who does move, which he has never indicated that he does so far, just in a "kalor" suit)
We have no indication who "kalor" targeted on those death free nights.
Needless to say, I don't trust sawneeks validating *splinter or vice versa. Likewise I don't trust Ty4on, (mainly due to the lack of clarity)
Pau, does your role involve "picking up" a passenger in whatever it is you do? This confirmation would clear Ty4on. This also has the added benefit of clearing up whether sawneeks could be "kalor" in disguise too.
Specifically, If you always have to pick up Ty4on before going to do whatever it is you do, it means that sawneeks could be "kalor", based on "kalor's" and AB's movements.
Frankly sawneeks mimicking kalor makes sense, no one alive has seen her move (except *splinter who I will not trust to clear sawneeks), so picking kalor to mimick would mean that any movement from that location could be confused with the other. Think of each space across the aisle as one tile on a board, and assuming that there is no movement hinderance for "moving" across an aisle, it would make sense to pick kalor from her perspective. Any location she would move would not look out of place for kalor to move to.
I'm not voting yet, just wanted to get down why I don't trust either of them clearing the other, and why I hunk we should leave sawneeks on the table for being the mimick.
I'll make three assumptions: 1) I'm taking makai and King kitty at their word that neither were targeted at night.
2) I'm taking Pau at her word (for movement)
The issue is the no death nights we will start with night 4, AB visiting goshujinsama. This visit could have walked either way. Third assumption) Assuming that both end hallways are the same movement and it is not increasing the distance to move across an aisle, it's 6 steps and an aisle for AB to move to goshu via left hallway, and 6 steps and an aisle to move via the right hallway,
AB didn't indicate a direction, and seeing kalor may have meant that he thought he went via the right side of the map, but what if he went left instead?
I'll hold that thought and jump to who sawneeks saw last night, just AB with no kalor.
Now taking her at her word indicates that "kalor" had to come from *splinter or the top of the map.
However there is Night 3, no "kalor" view from AB, which seems to clear the rest of the top row, and Pau saw "kalor", but so did sawneeks...
This leaves only three possibilities for "kalor" either *splinter (lying about his role today) or sawneeks (lying about her role and who she saw / where she went specifically about night 3) or an outside possibility of Ty4on (who does move, which he has never indicated that he does so far, just in a "kalor" suit)
We have no indication who "kalor" targeted on those death free nights.
Needless to say, I don't trust sawneeks validating *splinter or vice versa. Likewise I don't trust Ty4on, (mainly due to the lack of clarity)
Pau, does your role involve "picking up" a passenger in whatever it is you do? This confirmation would clear Ty4on. This also has the added benefit of clearing up whether sawneeks could be "kalor" in disguise too.
Specifically, If you always have to pick up Ty4on before going to do whatever it is you do, it means that sawneeks could be "kalor", based on "kalor's" and AB's movements.
Frankly sawneeks mimicking kalor makes sense, no one alive has seen her move (except *splinter who I will not trust to clear sawneeks), so picking kalor to mimick would mean that any movement from that location could be confused with the other. Think of each space across the aisle as one tile on a board, and assuming that there is no movement hinderance for "moving" across an aisle, it would make sense to pick kalor from her perspective. Any location she would move would not look out of place for kalor to move to.
I'm not voting yet, just wanted to get down why I don't trust either of them clearing the other, and why I hunk we should leave sawneeks on the table for being the mimick.