Didn't see it, was already typing my claim
I actually started right after my post saying we need more info, but I did stop for a while to consider if now was the right time to come forward.
Which vote were you referring to by the way? Day 3?
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Danganronpa Mafia |OT| Grin and Bear It
- Thread starter LaunchpadMcQ
- Start date
I actually started right after my post saying we need more info, but I did stop for a while to consider if now was the right time to come forward.
Which vote were you referring to by the way? Day 3?
I don't make the roles, I just said what I was given.
And I'm not fishing for roles. Anyone who took a minute to look at the map could guess the Lovers were somewhere near those facilities. I'm saying that when you are lynched if you truly are Hope then you should leave evidence behind of what you saw so we can go back and look at it knowing that info is legit.
Terrabyte20xx
Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
All of them, notice how many confirmed town you've voted for, and how you never once had a single vote on CzarTim, the confirmed Despair.
This ain't to completely discount your role claim, but You gotta admit, it's pretty convenient...
This ain't to completely discount your role claim, but You gotta admit, it's pretty convenient...
Royal_Flush
Member
Fine, let's discuss it.
Day 1 is whatever, because no "Kalor"
Day 2: You watched the kitchen. If you, Pau and Sawneeks all are telling the truth that means that "Kalor" needed to visit the Gym in order to be seen by Pau.
Day 3: I cant pull information out of this
Day 4: "Kalor" was seen yet apparently not in the Gym. That means that the room they have to go changes every night.
Day 5: "Kalor" headed to AB's room. Sawneeks did not see him. That means Swamped is "Kalor" (Zipped cleared by AB, I am Hope, CB and Kingkitty very likely Hope, other people are dead)
Seems pretty inconvenient to me
But the only confirmed Despair we have is CzarTim, and I was never strongly suspicious of him (and I don't do that "I'm just voting you so you answer my questions" soft-voting bullshit).According to the reasons given on D3, very few people seriously suspected him.
Terrabyte20xx
Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
Actually, there is one room where everyone is telling the truth, AND could explain why it was Kalor that was the chosen person what was mimicked...
Zippedpinhead
Member
just to repeat it back to you, to be crystal clear. Your theory is that the mimick can only go to big rooms? And, as despair, would be unable to target individual rooms?
If you are saying that they had to visit a big room once and then could be a mimick forever, then that I can see being possible. But the way you are presenting it sounds an awful lot like the former.
It's also possible that you are copying another despairs role, and that this gambit is to make that role sound plausible as a hope aligned role. Except that role, as you said, would only really troll hope and only be useful as despair (by identifying patterns to target the next night)
Royal_Flush
Member
There is, if they were forced into a person by RNG and had to visit a facility before killing also chosen by RNG. I don't believe that's the case, ergo I think someone is lying.
Terrabyte20xx
Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
No, there is a SMALL room where the mimic would be forced to go, AND why they would choose Kalor, especially considering the lack of a Day 1 spotting.
Have you figured it out yet?
Not mine. I pretty sure Sawneeks isn't the mimic, but was the target N3. I voted for Sawneeks D5 to put some pressure on her, but after thinking over it over the night I see no reason not to trust her.
No, my theory is that they have to visit a big room before the kill (for example, to collect a weapon).
The alternative (from my POV) is that Ty4on is Despair, or that Sawneeks is lying, and I didn't find either to be as likely.
Although the wonky questioning from Sawneeks does force me to reconsider
CornBurrito
Member
I mean I don't think the idea of a GOTCHA trap was a bad one. Well done for thinking of doing that. But I feel *Splinter was asking for confirmation as to what you were trying to ask (since you asked him to state the letter of the facility without giving the facility away, which is impossible), and you then immediately voted for him and role claimed before giving him a chance to clarify.
Zippedpinhead
Member
You are right, it was Pau's theory first.
Terrabyte20xx
Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
CornBurrito
Member
I mean, besides Czartim we've only ever voted for Hope players. So that applies to like... everyone who didn't vote for Czartim D3. But most of those players were semi-cleared by AB.
And as far as I remember, goshu was the only person who declared suspicion for Tim. I *may*have expressed some frustration toward this fact at the time
CornBurrito
Member
That theory is baloney imo. I think the mimic simply needed to PM Launch on N1 to set up a disguise. Then they probably kill just like every other Despair. And Despair don't need to visit a room to collect a weapon first. We saw that with Czar's PM.
Royal_Flush
Member
I really would like to see how the dead thread probably is yelling at the screen because the solution is really simple and we just can't figure it out...
CornBurrito
Member
I'm sure Czartim is laughing at us in hell.
Well I said before that it would relate to the mimic only because Czar didn't have it. But my problem is that if its baloney there aren't a lot of alternatives...
Today I am still the most likely culprit regardless, but tomorrow?
Is it more likely that Ty is an evil-lover-mimic?
or that Ty and Pau are both lovers and decided to share info that outs them?
Or my theory?
Does Sawneeks being a liar clear Ty4on? I thought Ty's D2 info alone was enough to implicate him
And again, empty room theory is possible, though similar to the large rooms theory
CornBurrito
Member
Even though I'm Hope, I'm really in the mood to flex my creative muscles and make up a false role claim for myself. So here goes:
Guys I am Super High School Level Psychic.
Once per game during the Night Phase I can PM Launchpad the name of a deceased player. After spending the night preparing the ritual, I can then channel the spirit of that deceased player. That player can then post for the remainder of the day.
Guys I am Super High School Level Psychic.
Once per game during the Night Phase I can PM Launchpad the name of a deceased player. After spending the night preparing the ritual, I can then channel the spirit of that deceased player. That player can then post for the remainder of the day.
Spirits of the beyond, lend us your wisdom. How much of a bunch of idiots are we being right now?
Terrabyte20xx
Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
Hey, I have a theory but I need a PR to help me here: do blind spots exist?
Like if goshujinsama and I walked out of our rooms and towards Makai and CzarTim's rooms respectively, would We see eachother? Or would only one of us see the other?
Like if goshujinsama and I walked out of our rooms and towards Makai and CzarTim's rooms respectively, would We see eachother? Or would only one of us see the other?
Hey, I have a theory but I need a PR to help me here: do blind spots exist?
Like if goshujinsama and I walked out of our rooms and towards Makai and CzarTim's rooms respectively, would We see eachother? Or would only one of us see the other?
You would see each other. To make sense of it, draw a line from where you are going to your destination. Now draw a line for Goshu from his start to his destination. If the lines cross or meet at any time you will see each other.
Blindspots do not exist.Hey, I have a theory but I need a PR to help me here: do blind spots exist?
Like if goshujinsama and I walked out of our rooms and towards Makai and CzarTim's rooms respectively, would We see eachother? Or would only one of us see the other?
I'm still at school so I can't respond to everything now but yeah... a lot to go through and think about.
If this was true AB would have seen Ty4on go to the empty room to change when he went to investigate youNo, there is a SMALL room where the mimic would be forced to go, AND why they would choose Kalor, especially considering the lack of a Day 1 spotting.
Have you figured it out yet?
Going to bandwagon off of this because I really don't think a mimic needs to go into a room in order to change because we have no evidence to even support this.
I'm going to ignore Night 1 for this scenario because we already confirmed CzarTim completed the kill for that Night and the mimic 'Kalor' was not seen, meaning he/she was not active.
Going to be referring to this a lot. Thanks Royal for making it!
Night 2
So, Night 2, or the first night we have evidence of the mimic in play. As no one saw CzarTim that Night it can be safe to assume that he did not complete that Night's kill and that 'Kalor' did. The unfortunate soul who died that night was SalvaPot in the top left area of the map. We can confirm that 'Kalor' came from the right side of the map to make the kill as he is seen by BOTH Pau and AB who were on the right side during that Night. AbsolutBro went to investigate Terra and moved to his right passed Pau ( confirmed by them seeing each other ) leaving Pau as the only odd one out with no confirmation as to direction. However, if you take the Lover claim at face-value, it's safe to assume she moved somewhere near Ty4on on the right side. Also please note that AbsolutBro has seen BOTH Pau and 'Kalor', meaning it is unlikely they are the same person.
"Well, what if that person changed into costume in a facility!"
Highly unlikely. If they were to use one of the two right facilities they would have been seen by Salva, Pau, AND AB and unless they are hiding a name it doesn't sound like that's the case. What of the facilities on the left? Could have been used but this does not explain 'Kalor' being spotted by AB ( who moved right ) and Pau ( who sticks to the right side ) during that Night.
Using AB's path as a way to see who he passed by and has the possibility of being the mimic we now have these names as possible mimics: Pau, Splinter,Ty4on, Sawneeks, Rest, and Terrabyte20xx
Night 3
or the Night I almost died. We have no kill this Night, making it hard to pinpoint where the mimic was heading, but as I saw 'Kalor' that Night and coupled with my role I fully believe I was the target but I was able to survive because I went swimming.
So, we can now narrow down our list even further. AB went to Zippedpinhead's room that Night, which is to the left of his room. He only references seeing Pau that Night which makes sense given they are across from each other. However, it should be noted that he did NOT see 'Kalor' while Pau and myself did. Now Pau only makes mention of seeing AB and 'Kalor' that Night and, using the same assumption for Night 2, we can assume she sticks to the right side only and that would mean she only passes AB, Splinter, and possibly Ty4on. Now, as I move left towards the pool, I run into 'Kalor' that Night and no one else, meaning the mimic moved far enough down to where I could see them. As there was no kill that Night plus given the fact that I saw them here and NOT Night 5 ( will get into that ) it can be a safe guess to say I was the target.
From that we can narrow our list down even further: Pau, Splinter,Ty4on, Sawneeks.
Night 4
Simple Night. AB makes his way down to Goshujinsama's room by using the right side. This can be confirmed because AB/Pau see each other and, again, Pau typically sticks to the right side. However, both notice 'Kalor' this Night and without a kill again it is hard to say where they were going. I wouldn't be surprised if this is where the Lovers out-smarted Despair and got away with it. The only odd thing of note here is the lack of Ty4on but the presence of 'Kalor'. If Ty4on had to change to become 'Kalor' and used the empty room across from him he would have been seen this night by AB but he was not.
Our list is still: Pau, Splinter,Ty4on, Sawneeks.
Night 5
The Night where Hope's luck ran out and we lost AbsolutBro, our investigator. Before he died he made his way down to the bottom row as both myself and Pau can confirm we saw him that Night. I'm going out on a limb and suggesting he investigated me after many people had voiced their suspicions towards me after the end of the previous Day. Again, if Ty4on or Splinter had to change into costume in order to become 'Kalor' they would have also been seen here by Pau/AB.
On this Night, only Pau sees 'Kalor' as he goes to make the Night kill against AB. I do not see our mimic even though I moved left, again confirming my earlier thoughts that the bottom row, at least to my left, does not house the Mimic.
Our list is now: Pau, Splinter,Ty4on.
You can argue that Pau is changing into 'Kalor' at Night using a side facility but it just seems odd. If Splinter/Ty4on flip Hope then it has to be her.
*Splinter I have given my arguments, and vote, towards him and will remain there until the Day ends. I believe his claim was a lie and he removed AB from the game and plans to go after Pau next so he may move freely. He is also the only person Pau would always actively see when she goes right and would explain why she always sees 'Kalor'.
Ty4on is odd. He is a Lover but has never been seen moving and I don't think Pau/Ty4on meet in the same room every single Night or else they would have already been killed. It leads me to believe he is the mimic if *Splinter ends up flipping Hope. Even if Splinter flips Despair I would keep my eye on him as something keeps rubbing me the wrong way when it comes to his stuff. Still, my theory in him is rocky as I believe Pau would notice something about her partner whether it be Fight Club related or Role PM related.
Zippedpinhead
Member
Sawneeks,
The only thing I want to add to your assessment is one caveat for night 2, due to the proximity of czartim and salvapot, it is possible that czar did make the kill that night and "got away with it". Based on movement (and not knowing crabs movement) the only person who would have seen czartim was salvapot that night. It's the main reason why I discount night two on mimic talk.
And night 4 could have AB going either direction (as goshujinsama' room is exactly the same distance away no matter which direction he takes). This makes it even MORE likely to be *splinter.
Not trying to throw wrenches, and I like your assessment (I'm not switching my vote) but these things could have happened.
The only thing I want to add to your assessment is one caveat for night 2, due to the proximity of czartim and salvapot, it is possible that czar did make the kill that night and "got away with it". Based on movement (and not knowing crabs movement) the only person who would have seen czartim was salvapot that night. It's the main reason why I discount night two on mimic talk.
And night 4 could have AB going either direction (as goshujinsama' room is exactly the same distance away no matter which direction he takes). This makes it even MORE likely to be *splinter.
Not trying to throw wrenches, and I like your assessment (I'm not switching my vote) but these things could have happened.
The only problem is on Night 2 was the first time 'Kalor' was seen, meaning the mimic was in play. This could mean that the mimic had to go to Kalor's room to get his identity and would have allowed CzarTim to move and make the kill. It is possible, although I don't necessarily believe it. If this was true it was point to Pau being the mimic, gooing to get the costume, and then walking back as 'Kalor'? I don't buy it tbh.
Didn't notice that about Night 4 though. If AB went left then that means Pau was targeted directly by 'Kalor' as that is the only way AB could have seen them both. It still points to Splinter/Ty4on though.
Terrabyte20xx
Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
At this point, it can only be *Splinter/Ty4on, with the room theory axed, those are our only options.
One might be Despair the other might be Hope. We won't know until one is lynched/dies.
Also, now that you're back, what are your thoughts on your now-outed Lucky Buddy?
Zippedpinhead
Member
Are we going to wait three days with all of us bearly posting until two hours before the end of the day phase and rush kill someone?
Or are we just going to vote and move forward with what we have?
I'm all for waiting, but only if we think it will get us more information and not just make everything go crazy (I.e. What has happened every single end of day except for when we killed czartim)
Or are we just going to vote and move forward with what we have?
I'm all for waiting, but only if we think it will get us more information and not just make everything go crazy (I.e. What has happened every single end of day except for when we killed czartim)
Well...he's still Hope. My role PM makes no sense if he's Despair or neutral.
Absolutely nothing new in there.
I'm trusting Ty4on's analysis of Pau's data for now. It's possible one or both are Despair but it becomes a crazy consulted role, so I'm treating that as least likely.
Ty4on's analysis, which I won't repeat, provides the following options (which are the same as yours, but with way less convoluted explanation).
a) Splinter is the mimic. (Most likely (until tomorrow))
b) The mimic comes from or visits the empty room (possible, no evidence against this, not considered in Sawneeks "analysis")
c) The mimic visits a facility before making a kill, either at random or by choice. I agree that they probably don't go there to get changed - that would make it pointless anyway
d) Pau and/or Ty4on are lying. (Unlikely)
If I missed a possible explanation for "Kalor" please let me know, as I want this to be as complete as possible.
I didn't include "Sawneeks is lying" as that appears to be independent to this. I think my own findings rule her out as the killer, but that doesn't mean she is Hope. The more she hammers on the same points the more I suspect she wants us to stay away from other ideas.
Newsflash: I will be lynched today, at that point my role will be revealed and your "most likely" goes out the window. You are arguing for something that is already going to happen and it's boring. The only possible benefit to this is to set up a chain lynch on Pau or Ty4on.
I'm trusting Ty4on's analysis of Pau's data for now. It's possible one or both are Despair but it becomes a crazy consulted role, so I'm treating that as least likely.
Ty4on's analysis, which I won't repeat, provides the following options (which are the same as yours, but with way less convoluted explanation).
a) Splinter is the mimic. (Most likely (until tomorrow))
b) The mimic comes from or visits the empty room (possible, no evidence against this, not considered in Sawneeks "analysis")
c) The mimic visits a facility before making a kill, either at random or by choice. I agree that they probably don't go there to get changed - that would make it pointless anyway
d) Pau and/or Ty4on are lying. (Unlikely)
If I missed a possible explanation for "Kalor" please let me know, as I want this to be as complete as possible.
I didn't include "Sawneeks is lying" as that appears to be independent to this. I think my own findings rule her out as the killer, but that doesn't mean she is Hope. The more she hammers on the same points the more I suspect she wants us to stay away from other ideas.
Newsflash: I will be lynched today, at that point my role will be revealed and your "most likely" goes out the window. You are arguing for something that is already going to happen and it's boring. The only possible benefit to this is to set up a chain lynch on Pau or Ty4on.
CornBurrito
Member
お前しか...ない!
Terrabyte20xx
Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
I just want to say that if *Splinter is the mimic, I think it likely that there is a Despair hacker, I doubt he just randomly made up a role and night actions.
Oh I must have missed something, why is this theory axed?
That makes sense, actually. His role seems better suited for Despair.
CornBurrito
Member
I laughed. If Pau/Ty4on are both Despair this game get so fucking crazy. I love it.
I think that if we want to test them, we should vote Ty out first. Ty is the first to come forward with all the information, and role claimed himself and Pau. Sort of. Never actually said what the role was, but said he was 100% certain of her alignment. If he is Hope, we can assume Pau is Hope because Hope Ty has literally zero reason to lie about that.
CornBurrito
Member
I 'unno... if I were on team Despair I'd have my team members craft a couple of fake roles for my team members to role claim.
I've already given my position and thoughts but I am fine with having other discussions. I would also like to hear from everyone but I'm willing to give it more time considering school/work and all that.
Like Rest. Where are you??
I was simply trying to be thorough for those who are not sure of the situation and want more info they might not have ( aka non-Fight Club members ). Also to give people access to this info so they can make their own assumptions and so they can see my thought process on this matter. If it comes across as convoluted I apologize.
However, I did mention your point 'B' in my whole post. In order for the mimic to 'come from' the abandoned room they must first travel there and unless they are invisible while they walk there their 'true identity' would be seen. This leads to the only option be Pau in this case as she is always seen with 'Kalor' but, as I said in my post, I don't believe this theory. But I did mention it.
Terrabyte20xx
Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
すみませんがちょっと。。。私はわかりません
Just in case my first was missed...
VOTE: *Splinter
Re: Evil-Lover-Mimic theory
All of Ty's info appears to come from Pau, so even if he's Despair he couldn't lie about what she's seen without her correcting him (and she hasn't). Therefore if you buy into this theory: either Pau is Despair or they both are.
Killing Ty4on first boggles my mind, and as usual no one explains themselves so I can't see where they (or I) could have gone wrong.
All of Ty's info appears to come from Pau, so even if he's Despair he couldn't lie about what she's seen without her correcting him (and she hasn't). Therefore if you buy into this theory: either Pau is Despair or they both are.
Killing Ty4on first boggles my mind, and as usual no one explains themselves so I can't see where they (or I) could have gone wrong.
You are assuming they are not disguised before they visit the large room. This makes zero sense.
CornBurrito
Member
I've explained myself tons of times. Ty is the one who started the whole lovers nonsense. He is the one who role and alignment claimed Pau. If Ty is Hope, why the fuuuck would he lie about knowing her alignment? So if Ty flipped Hope, we'd know not to lynch Pau.
If he flips Despair, I figured there's a chance Pau would be Hope. But I'd assume Despair.
Terrabyte20xx
Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
On Pau being the despair mimic... well, Ty4on's room IS in front of the empty room, but it wouldn't explain why our COP saw her on day 1...