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[isaacnukem]

Also I'm on mobile so, uh, riddled with spelling and grammar errors. If something flat out doesn't make sense let me know.

Earth pandas

 

[isaacnukem]

Who do you think is the arsonist?

I think it has to be Muffin. Seems like a lone wolf the whole game. There's also nin, who probably was bold in the early game as a gambit but he quieted down considerably as the days went on, so I'm leaning scum on him. I just don't see Muffin working with anybody. I'd hate to be scum and be Muffin in this game. I'd loathe my teammates.

 

[isaacnukem]

But not Kits or Oreo?

I honestly think kits is town. Oreo is at the top of my neutral ladder he could almost reach the town proper.

 

[isaacnukem]

flatearthpandas have you played with hey_monkey before?

 

[hey_monkey]

flatearthpandas have you played with hey_monkey before?

Only a little. FEP replaced Bowlie in my first game and I got lynched right after. LB2 I subbed in right after FEP and kits got lynched.

I'm not sure if rac was the cleanest, only maybe by the virtue of being null? I actually think oreamunsta is cleaner.

Nah, he's pretty well suspected. No one really suspected rac.

But honestly, i don't like this conspiracy angle. It isn't conspiracy. "Why would scum do something so obviously scummy" is not a defense. She did it because she thought she could get away with it. That's why. Why would a townie not want to lynch scum? That is the real question. Why do mafia want to shoot targets in the dark where a neutral will block their night kill when they can guarantee their kill by striking guaranteed town? And this feeds into my end part...


Better question. Why would you do that as town? If Stan was scum, CM was town. Full stop. Stan was outed scum. As town, why do you try and lynch the town?


Why yell about the doctor? I said in the post, to give scum some wifom. If doctor is alive, they are potentially blocking nks. Presumably on their top town or themselves.

I finished the day throwing shade at monkey. If I was the doctor, who would I be unlikely to be protecting? Who is definitely not neutral? Monkey would be the safest nk last night imo. Posted last second in case the doctor really is alive so there wouldn't be any drama.

Well, first, let me address something. I didn't say "let's not lynch Stan." I said CM was also not to be trusted for outing a PR for no good reason at all with a wacky gambit and because of the flip timing, I suggested lynching CM first. Hell, in Pineapple Pizza when I red-checked Blarg, plenty of people suggested I get lynched first. It's not a totally out of the way angle to take - I've argued worse, for less reason - but I argued it because of the timing of the info we get for flips. You can spin my motivation however you want, but I was pretty clear about it, over and over. But then the neutral blew folks up so everything changed that night anyway. And even if I'd been inclined to change my vote, it would have just put us closer to turbo. I don't care much for turbos. We can argue back and forth on that but it doesn't matter. I don't like them when there's issues yet in the air. I particularly hated it that day when CM was about to post.

As for the doctor business, it just comes off as showboating for today. I keep waiting for you to explain why I would have been the safest nk for scum. You just say it. The odds of them hitting the neutral are getting stronger, but there's no reason to NK me when you've announced your intent to lynch me today and had nin at least in your corner. They already took out our next target once with Burb and we talked about how weird it was - why would they do it again?

So it's not fact that I'd be the "safest" NK. It's a weighing risk of hitting neutral vs taking out the most likely lynch for today. It's a decision like any other.

 

[oreomunsta]

Lots of stuff I want to address in some form or another, so apologies for the chopped-up nature of my thoughts here

R. I. P RAC it looks like your body is being used to get me killed.
Poor move mafia
Poor

Why do you still post these kinds of things, Nin? Are you not aware of how it makes you look? After your odd posts at the end of the last day and this, I'm leaning to vote on you. This isn't the time in the game where you still want to make these red-flag kind of remarks if you were indeed town. Scum knows who you are, so either you'd be trying to confuse town or neutral or maybe even both, which isn't good for town right now.

Hey oreo, come out and post your thoughts.

VOTE: oreomunsta

Here are my thoughts - that's a poor way to open up your day if you're concerned about a turbo again as hinted at by your next post.

Majority is 4 now, correct?

I'd be happy to answer more direct questions, but I don't have much to say immediately about your write-up :/

I understand why others see me as neutral, I'd probably be thinking similarily if I was in your/their spots. But let me bring up something - who the hell was killed by the neutral? CM and Trigger? They would have been non-targets at the time of burrowing, and if I'm really "all-numbers", I wouldn't have been that loose with my picks because it wouldn't give me, oreo, the best chances at moving forward. I would've put at least one person that I felt was mildly suspicious of me along with someone like CM and Trigger. That would take some of the future heat off me while I could've still laid relatively low.

With all the times I've been brought up as anti-scum potential, or getting close to being lynched, scum is probably just waiting for me to get town lynched

rac was town read by about a few people and unlike oreo, he's been participating throughout on more than numbers

This narrative of me being only numbers is really not productive anymore, unless you guys want to go ahead and just lynch me :/ I play the best way I can. Never been one of the most talkative mafia players, and am better at analyzing than other forms of play, that if done poorly, make me look even more anti-town

In this case, I begin to see a case on oreo, especially after that weak ass vote last night.


And yet both me and sawneeks actually saying the opposite, that she was way different than lb and we wanted to see her under voting pressure for reactions, didn't bat an eyelash. Wouldn't be a huge deal in and of itself... except that lb meta from her teammates was your reason for suspicion.

It's true that my vote on kits was partially motivated by what you initially said about her, but after you revealed your 'awesome' bait-and-switch with her, I kept my vote on her for my other reason. That reason was her "Don't worry guys, scum can't talk it out!" comment.

I shared my Concern about monkey yesterday and will probably follow you FEP since you are in my book town. After yesterdays end you pretty much came to the top.

I won't blame you for following someone's gut to see where it goes, but just highlighting this because Sawn has a different reaction to you doing it than when I did that I find interesting

Nin my friend, I love you, but why would you ever follow someone in these games? Why not make reads and accusations based on what you think and not on what others think.

Anyway, for some mechanics.

7 players

4 town
2 mafia (ignite came d3, neutral definitely wasn't the 1 antitown we know is gone)
1 neutral

We know monkey cannot be neutral.

Town can afford two mislynches and still win, best case scenario. But that requires the neutral to ignite mafia and mafia to try and nk the neutral.

That looks like
D4: 9p, 6t, 2m, 1n
D5: 7p, 4t, 2m, 1n
D6: 5p 3t 1m 1n

No, I was wrong. Town loses this game in two mislynches barring complete ineptitude from the scum. It would look something like this:

D7: 4p 2t 1m 1n

This means the mafia attacked the neutral twice. Absolute stupidity, but town would theoretically be able to pull a win.

So no, we have one ml available if that. Worst case scenario, we can lose the game tonight

D5: 7p 4t 2m 1n
D6: 4p 1t 2m 1n

We ml, maf hits town, neutral ignites town. Town loses, either scum team can win.

D7 (town lynched, maf hits n): 3p 0t 2m 1n
Maf wins
D7 (maf lynched, maf hits town): 2p 0t 1m 1n
Tie vote, maf can't kill neutral, neutral eventual burrows and ignites.
Neutral wins
D7 (maf lynched, hits neutral): 3p 1t 1m 1n
Town lynch neutral wins.
Mafia lynch neutral wins
Neutral lynch mafia wins

What this means is we need to get our scummiest player dead today. Going to run the numbers in a second, but i think we should go for mafia. Mafia also fears the neutral and can blend in perfectly today putting forth actual effort (muffins scumhunting is going to be a scum tell today in scumception). But let's pretend we get mafia today.

D5: 7p 4t 2m 1n
D6: 4p 2t 1m 1n

Still pretty grim actually. This is a bad case in which maf hits town and neutral ignites town. However, if town can hit the next maf

D7: 3p 2t 0m 1n

And then hit the neutral D7 for a win. Not great odds but this is doable and again assumes a bad night.

Variations include

D6 (nk hits n, town ignite): 5p 3t 1m 1n
D6 (nk hits town, maf ignite): 4p 2t 0m 1n
D6 (nk hits n, maf ignite): 5p 4t 0m 1n

Actually there's a bunch but again even or worst case is still winnable if we get maf.

Now, if we get neutral

D5: 7p 4t 2m 1n
D6: 5p 3t 2m 0n

This is d6 lylo. Standard. Town still needs two maf lynches in a row to win.

I would prefer to lynch mafia today actually. Even our worst case scenario is doable and the neutral adds in a lot of potential favorable opportunities such as a mafia ignite or wasting a nk. Now here's an interesting thing. I want to revisit hell scenario where we ml today, eat a nk, and eat an ignite.



Actually, just realized, hell scenario mafia almost always wins because they can tie any vote that goes against them.

D7 (mafia tie, nk town): 3p 0t 2m 1n
Maf wins
D7 (mafia tie, nk n): 4p 1t 2m 1n)
Neutral can ignite a mafia n7 and possibly win

The only way mafia loses is if they guarantee not to hit the neutral. Which having monkey around will guarantee. But this is so deep down the rabbit hole I don't think it's even wifom for why monkey if alive.


Tl;dr
We have one ML available where we can still win
If we lynch neutral today we go into standard lylo tomorrow
If we lynch mafia today anything can happen. God case we enter tomorrow with all current town players still alive.

Now, I think monkey is mafia. I think lynching mafia gives town the best chance of winning.

Vote: hey_monkey

If I'm wrong and she is town, she is the best ml possible as her being alive gives scum a huge advantage in the night because they can guarantee that they don't actually target neutral in the night phase by targeting a green check.

But really, don't think she's town. This was a long rambler, will let it digest.

I find something odd in you saying that to make scum's chances worse, we must lynch monkey, who I think most here can agree she isn't ~the~ scummiest in the game. This sounds like an argument for in order for us to hurt scum's chances the most, we must purposefully lynch some of the potential town we have left

 

[flatearthpandas]

Has anyone actually been good at Mafia who lead mislynches left and right? I have never seen someone like that in all my games. If hey_monkey is scum, this is one of the most impressive scum performances I'd have ever seen.

Also, I almost blushed about your thoughts of me being neutral. If I were a neutral, I'd try to hit scum, help town, and concede defeat. I'm a good guy, like that. Also, even though I didn't vote, someone still got lynched. How would that be against my aims if I were neutral? Remember, the neutral cannot be killed by scum. If I were the arsonist, I only need to have one scum dead, and after that I'm on the mercy of town.

To the second bit, the neutral needs another mafia down to win. Ideally Neutral keeps one maf alive to thin the herd faster but to can outvote them. Neutral walks into tomorrow with two mafia and town monkey and it is game over. Actually, you could make the argument that since the neutral ignited n3 they would be pretty uninvested in yesterday's lynch since they didn't have any burrows to keep safe so if they weren't thinking about the endgame they really might not care who gets lynched.

As for muffin, i wonder why a neutral muffin sticks his neck out day 1.



To the first bit... about scum being so gung-ho to lead MLs...

Hmm. Hmmmm.
It isn't impossible but sure, not a great look. But keep in mind as well, mafia shouldn't be lolling about. They need to lynch that neutral. So, really, everyone ought to be hunting. Mafia should be the only ones protecting anyone. And that's kind of the thing, the fact that mafia can get punked by the neutral gives them all the more reason to protect their teammates. But perhaps I am tunneling.


Monkey, who do you think are mafia? We've been going back and forth but i started shading you the say after Stan lynched and you've been shrugging it off I went to bat for kits. Muffins has gone full omgus but is that where you're at?

 

[YesNOnoNOYes]

DAY 5 CURRENT VOTE TALLY:

oreomunsta (1) 3 more votes to majority
Muffin1611 1491

hey_monkey (1) 3 more votes to majority
flatearthpandas 1501 1544
flatearthpandas 1544

isaacnukem (0): hey_monkey 1524 1534

No active vote for Day 5: hey_monkey (has previously voted), isaacnukem, nin1000, oreomunsta, Sawneeks

Day 5 Postcount: flatearthpandas 13, hey_monkey 13, isaacnukem 10, Muffin1611 21, nin1000 6, oreomunsta 1, Sawneeks 4


Day 5 ends:

Automated vote tally here

4 votes for majority

 

[flatearthpandas]

1.
I understand why others see me as neutral, I'd probably be thinking similarily if I was in your/their spots. But let me bring up something - who the hell was killed by the neutral? CM and Trigger? They would have been non-targets at the time of burrowing, and if I'm really "all-numbers", I wouldn't have been that loose with my picks because it wouldn't give me, oreo, the best chances at moving forward. I would've put at least one person that I felt was mildly suspicious of me along with someone like CM and Trigger. That would take some of the future heat off me while I could've still laid relatively low.


2.
It's true that my vote on kits was partially motivated by what you initially said about her, but after you revealed your 'awesome' bait-and-switch with her, I kept my vote on her for my other reason. That reason was her "Don't worry guys, scum can't talk it out!" comment.


3.
I find something odd in you saying that to make scum's chances worse, we must lynch monkey, who I think most here can agree she isn't ~the~ scummiest in the game. This sounds like an argument for in order for us to hurt scum's chances the most, we must purposefully lynch some of the potential town we have left

1.
Or it makes you a god with numbers. Hypnotist and cop down. I said goddamn.

2.
Lol fair enough. It wasn't supposed be a big bait and switch to be fair. Never meant to be an aha! for the group, just my personal way to decide. And I do think it's just as important to keep town alive as to kill scum.

3.
I'm not saying we should sacrifice town. We can lose the game tomorrow with just one mislynch today.

At this stage of the game we need to be wondering why the town read green check is still alive. Just because she's been on a few bad lynches doesn't justify mafia leaving her alone to lead a lynch on them tomorrow.

What did scum do n3? They killed the other green check. Of course they did. And yet rac n4? Why? To wifom us into doing their work for them?

Even if that's the case, the green check is now a liability for us at night. So even if we're wondering, her not being there at night opens the otherwise zero percent chance of mafia wasting a nk on the neutral. So I think the risk is worthwhile.

 

[hey_monkey]

Monkey, who do you think are mafia? We've been going back and forth but i started shading you the say after Stan lynched and you've been shrugging it off I went to bat for kits. Muffins has gone full omgus but is that where you're at?

That is a good goddamned question.

If kits was town, and there's two scum and one neutral left, then I think there is one scum in the FEP/Sawneeks/nin group as I said earlier. But I'll tell you, the last day phase and the start of this one has shaken up my impressions. Sawneeks flopping her vote around. Impressions of nin going back and forth - is followernin scum or town? I've gone back and forth on Muffin a lot in the past couple phases. In general I feel like I got good reads in and then everything changed.

I need to go back and look at patterns.

 

[flatearthpandas]

That is a good goddamned question.

If kits was town, and there's two scum and one neutral left, then I think there is one scum in the FEP/Sawneeks/nin group as I said earlier.

Just to be clear, if kits was town you think scum was hiding in the group that didn't lynch her?

 

[flatearthpandas]

Of course you're probably right. With 9 players yesterday and 3 scum, there's a good chance there's one scum in any group of three

 

[hey_monkey]

DAY 4 FINAL VOTE TALLY:

kitsunelaine (3) voted out
flatearthpandas 1229 1272
hey_monkey 1278
Sawneeks 1379 1427
Muffin1611 1435
oreomunsta 1446

Muffin1611 (2)
flatearthpandas 1272
Sawneeks 1289 1376
Sawneeks 1447

nin1000 (1)
Muffin1611 1325 1435
rac 1437

Sawneeks (1)
nin1000 1459

isaacnukem (0): nin1000 1424 1459

oreomunsta (0): Sawneeks 1427 1447

No active vote for Day 4: isaacnukem, kitsunelaine

Day 4 Postcount: flatearthpandas 38, hey_monkey 62, isaacnukem 20, kitsunelaine 13, Muffin1611 39, nin1000 37, oreomunsta 21, rac 25, Sawneeks 30

The votes would make me squint hard at Sawneeks in particular. But I think they were spread out. Could be that the neutral is on kits instead of scum. I'm gonna spend some time combing tomorrow.

 

[oreomunsta]

1.
Or it makes you a god with numbers. Hypnotist and cop down. I said goddamn.

2.
Lol fair enough. It wasn't supposed be a big bait and switch to be fair. Never meant to be an aha! for the group, just my personal way to decide. And I do think it's just as important to keep town alive as to kill scum.

3.
I'm not saying we should sacrifice town. We can lose the game tomorrow with just one mislynch today.

At this stage of the game we need to be wondering why the town read green check is still alive. Just because she's been on a few bad lynches doesn't justify mafia leaving her alone to lead a lynch on them tomorrow.

What did scum do n3? They killed the other green check. Of course they did. And yet rac n4? Why? To wifom us into doing their work for them?

Even if that's the case, the green check is now a liability for us at night. So even if we're wondering, her not being there at night opens the otherwise zero percent chance of mafia wasting a nk on the neutral. So I think the risk is worthwhile.

Lol, if anyone were that good at numbers, mafia would be like tic-tac-toe to them I get that you didn't mean to try and pull the rug out from everyone with the kits gamble, but there were other reasons to scumlean kits, which makes your move shifty as hell no matter what your alignment is.

Okay, so for this monkey business (ba-dum-tiss), we know (assuming Trigger's cop claim) that

- Monkey and Verelios were claimed to be greenlit by Trigger
- Verelios was then NK'd. Trigger and CM were ignited, which fucked our chances to follow that thread
- Monkey is still alive, and has not been the target of a NK, given that scum successfully NK'd every night

Why has monkey not been NK'd, while Verelios was killed the night of the greenlight? I think that because Verelios was under some scrutiny at that time (I know I'm partially guilty of that), while monkey was a strong town lean for many, it was more valuable for scum to NK Verelios, and let town grow suspicious of those who threw shade at him, and monkey.

Okay, but why is monkey still alive, then? I guess this could be considered town's biggest current question, apart from who scum are and who neutral is. The easy answer is that she's the GF. That's not necessarily the right answer, but let's say we bite.

We lynch monkey. Lose a town.
Scum has a chance to NK another scum. At this point in the game, it's also a significant chance that they accidentally hit the neutral, and waste the NK, or do a NK with whoever the doc protected.

This is a great situation for scum. Bad for town. Bad for neutral who needs scum dead.

Let's say we don't bite, and believe monkey is town.

Either we made the right choice, and now scum has a bit of a larger chance of being lynched. Or, we get duped, and scum has a shoe-in, who will last later into the game, regardless of what her reads are.

I'd estimate that, without running some numbers, all possibilities are likely enough to be seriously considered :/ This is a game where both BHL and cop got ignited shortly after claiming, proving that anything really is possible.

I really dislike the way that monkey plays supposed town, but it's consistent with what I remember from animafia, so I'm leaning towards running with believing in the greenlight she has right now.

I need to go back and look at patterns.

o7 good luck in finding those, monkey

 

[flatearthpandas]

We lynch monkey. Lose a town.
Scum has a chance to NK another scum. At this point in the game, it's also a significant chance that they accidentally hit the neutral, and waste the NK, or do a NK with whoever the doc protected.

This is a great situation for scum. Bad for town. Bad for neutral who needs scum dead.

Let's say we don't bite, and believe monkey is town.

Either we made the right choice, and now scum has a bit of a larger chance of being lynched. Or, we get duped, and scum has a shoe-in, who will last later into the game, regardless of what her reads are.

I'd estimate that, without running some numbers, all possibilities are likely enough to be seriously considered :/ This is a game where both BHL and cop got ignited shortly after claiming, proving that anything really is possible.

This is only three of four scenarios. You've left out we lynch correctly a scum monkey.

Lynch:
Correctly:

Best (maf target n, n ignites maf): 4p 0m 1n
Days to find neutral, tons of options, literally needs a new scenario run

Meh (maf target n, no ignite); 6p 4t 1m 1n
Not terrible. Town got a fighting chance, especially with last maf knowingly pushing neutral lynch, fearing a game ending ignite

Meh p2 (maf target t, no ignite): 5p 3t 1m 1n
Neutral scramble. Maybe worse than the previous because no info on neutral.

Worst (maf target t, n ignites t): 5p 2t 1m 1n
Completely random

This is great for town, even worst case is acceptable

Incorrectly:

Best (maf nk n, n ignites m): 5p 3t 1m 1n
Mylo. Can nl safely for 2t 1m 1n in which case it is lylo maf and pray about the burrow. Not great but mylo is better than lylo.

Meh (maf nk n, n ignites t): 5p 2t 2m 1n
Game over. Maf nks next night

Worst (mad nk t, n ignites t): 4p 1t 2m 1n
Maf win

Any mislynch is theoretically game ending for town. Monkey less so because game ending relies on mafia not hitting the neutral and they can guarantee to avoid the neutral by hitting monkey. Easily our best ml because best case is impossible without this lynch.

Don't Lynch:
Correctly:
Maf easily avoids missing their nk.

D6:
Best (scum nk monkey, n ignites scum): 4p 2t 1m 1n
Lylo, need to lynch mafia. Followed by... lylo p.2
2x lylo

Meh (scum nk monkey, no ignite): 5p 2t 2m 1n
Lylo, lynch mafia or lose unless maf targets neutral, then lylo p.2
Random chance 2x lylo we else game over

Worst (scum nk monkey, n ignites town): 4p 1t 2m 1n
Game over

Maf most likely win the game unless arsonist ignites and/or we lynch a maf. Tinfoil scenario: they just get lucky guessing a nk and both arsonist and maf leave me alive to try and really drive the lynch in tomorrow for an L. Which is an easy L for arsonist as well unless they get lucky and punk a maf. Best case scenario is lylo x2

Incorrectly:

Best (maf nk n, n ignites maf): 5p 3t 1m 1n
Maybe Doable. Maf will kill next town night unless lynched. Same scenario repeats, when do they nk her? Based on trust but we can win. Maf will likely push for n lynch which can exposed them. Not terrible but depends on trust.

Meh (maf nk n, no ignite): 5p 3t 2m 1n
Ma again pushes n probably. We're basically relying on luck at this point. It's mylo if we hit maf and depending on who neutral burrows.
Low odds of town win

Meh 2 (maf nk n, n ignites t): 4p 2t 2m 1n
Game over. I don't think town wins this, toss up for scum

Worst (maf nk t, n ignites t): 1t 2m 1n
Game over


Game over. Town has let a godfather into endgame based on trust. I've been in these games. Neutral ascetic bulletproof serial killer motherfucking cop. Unless the neutral punks her or scum leaves me alive, it seems unlikely she gets the lynch and we all take an L. If we successfully out her next day we have a chance.

Of course these last two rely on us still mislynching.

If we lynch neutral today, we go to lylo. 3t 2m
Lylo x2

If we lynch maf:
Best (maf nk n, n ignites m): 4t 0m 1n
Not bad

Meh (maf nk n, no ignite): 4t 1m 1n
Still decent, random depending on n

Meh (maf nk t, no ignite): 3t 1m 1n
Random on n. Winnable.

Worst (maf nk t, n ignites t): 2t 1m 1
Lylo mafia

Oreo, you say these are all equally likely. Probability is not my jazz so i won't argue. But the threat is not even close to equal. I have my goggles on again but someone else do a risk analysis. All things else being equal, which scenarios are best and worst for town?

To be honest, I'm tired. I think these are accurate but I'm going to finish with a

Unvote

Still leaning there but I'll come back to it. Let me know what you guys think. As i was going through, doubted my position.

 

[oreomunsta]

Good call on me forgetting the case where monkey is scum and we do the lynch >< I can make up some numbers later in my evening (~12 hours from now) for this later.

Also, I did NOT say that the possibilities are equally likely. I said that they're likely enough to not be ignored (re: in the realm of 5% or higher and probably within spitting distance of each other)

 

[hey_monkey]

I really dislike the way that monkey plays supposed town

yikes >< love you too, cookie monster

Re: rac being "clean" - only three people have voted him ever in the entire game - me and LoC, and then CornBurrito. Only the last one stayed til EoD. Nothing else, not even a pressure vote at any time.

NKs: Burbeting, LordofCastamere, Verelios, rac
Voted for Burb, ever: Sawneeks, nin1000
Voted for LoC, ever: no one
voted for Verelios, ever: hey_monkey, Burbeting

Still alive and who has ever voted for them:
hey_monkey: FEP
Sawneeks: oreomunsta, FEP, nin1000
FEP: kitsunelaine, Stan
Muffin: FEP, Sawneeks, oreo
oreo: Sawneeks, Muffin, Verelios, LoC
nin1000: Stan, CornBurrito, kitsunelaine
isaacnukem: LoC, nin1000, Sawneeks, hey_monkey

Some observations: FEP only had votes d1, never after. I didn't get any votes until today. nin1000 had both people in the scum death info day (Stan, almost certainly scum, and CornBro, probs not) vote for him.

People on winning lynches each day (even if they didn't stay there):
d1, Fireblend: LoC, monkey, Vere, Muffin
d2: CB: monkey, rac, oreo, LoC
d3, Stan: CM, FEP, Vere, kits, isaac, sawneeks, oreo, rac, nin
d4, kits: FEP, monkey, Sawnkees, muffin, oreo

Observations: boy, that monkey does look scummy; Muffin and oreo come around to lynch trains

other: FEP and Sawneeks have been doing a lot of vote switching throughout

My guess is still that one scum is in the FEP/Saw/nin group, and I would lean to FEP or Saw first. The other I suspect is either Muffin or oreo. I don't know what to do with isaac.

 

[isaacnukem]

Well, first, let me address something. I didn't say "let's not lynch Stan." I said CM was also not to be trusted for outing a PR for no good reason at all with a wacky gambit and because of the flip timing, I suggested lynching CM first. Hell, in Pineapple Pizza when I red-checked Blarg, plenty of people suggested I get lynched first. It's not a totally out of the way angle to take - I've argued worse, for less reason - but I argued it because of the timing of the info we get for flips. You can spin my motivation however you want, but I was pretty clear about it, over and over. But then the neutral blew folks up so everything changed that night anyway. And even if I'd been inclined to change my vote, it would have just put us closer to turbo. I don't care much for turbos. We can argue back and forth on that but it doesn't matter. I don't like them when there's issues yet in the air. I particularly hated it that day when CM was about to post.

What if CM actually wanted to protect the cop, however misguidedly? If Trigger didn't claim, he could've claimed after Stanley did the hypno's bidding that the hypno used their role on Stanley. The doc would've protected CM, and the scum wouldn't have known after they killed CM that the cop is still in play because of the no flips thing. I'd say it's a good gambit if it worked, but it failed when Trigger claimed. Also, the arsonist got to screw everything up.

As for the reason why people didn't believe you as a cop in Pineapple Mafia, this is an open setup versus that game's closed setup. SkyOdin claimed Beloved Princess which was a detrimental townie role, so a lot of people thought you were in cahoots, I think myself included. So it's different here where we actually do know the roles.

 

[hey_monkey]

What if CM actually wanted to protect the cop, however misguidedly? If Trigger didn't claim, he could've claimed after Stanley did the hypno's bidding that the hypno used their role on Stanley. The doc would've protected CM, and the scum wouldn't have known after they killed CM that the cop is still in play because of the no flips thing. I'd say it's a good gambit if it worked, but it failed when Trigger claimed. Also, the arsonist got to screw everything up.

I think the problem here is that there's few scenarios in which Trigger does NOT claim. Because ti's an open setup, there was an opening for scum to fake claim; the knee jerk reaction then is to say NO. That there wasn't much benefit to a fake claim notwithstanding, it undermines Trigger claiming in the future should he need to report a red check, particularly since, in a game without Trigger's counter claim, even if we lynched Stan with no issues there, we have two flips in that period and uncertainty.

Trigger was always more likely to counter than to not counter.

 

[Muffin1611]

Muffins has gone full omgus but is that where you're at?

I mean, if calling out flimsy vote reasoning and how your arguments today aren't very good ones is omgus to you, sure.

 

[flatearthpandas]

Christ i was bored and drunk earlier. I don't think anything particularly new came out of that mess, everyone ought to skip it and just refer back if you need it.

Monkey, you have any actual reads for all this shade? Or are we still essentially at "everyone who didn't vote kits is scum". Sure you're not going to say that but let's be real.

 

[Muffin1611]

For todays vote I'm either for oreo as neutral suspect or FEP as scum. I know I said earlier that neutral would be my priority, but sleeping over it, I'm not completely sure of it anymore.

We kill neutral -> We eat a NK from scum

We kill scum -> We either eat a NK and an ignite; eat only an ignite if NK hits neutral; or nothing at all if NK hits neutral and neutral decides to burrow

The first option is playing it safe, the other one is taking a risk, but with possible great outcome.

What do you guys think? Take the risk, or play it safe?

 

[isaacnukem]

Other than the whole CM thing, I honestly don't see how people see hey_monkey as scummy. She's the towniest town this game for me. Maybe it's because I was new here almost the same time she was new here, so I feel like I don't need to rely on people to tell me about her meta because I was there playing the same games with her, and always she was vocal, and she was town. No matter how ridiculous the circumstances are like that Beloved Princess stuff, she turned out she was speaking the truth. I sense no difference here. Along with flatearthpandas and Sawneeks, she is one of the few folks I won't vote.

Now the question is why is she still alive if she's so town and she's greenlit? I have another question, why are flatearthpandas and Sawneeks still alive too, then?

 

[isaacnukem]

Also rac just got outnulled by a ton of other people, I guess.

 

[oreomunsta]

Sorry monkey, I shouldn't have worded my statement on your play so strongly. I have issues with it, but "really dislike" is a bit much, I agree Your vote breakdown up above is really good, though

I'll go into some more numbers if people are interested, but I do want to lay out two numbers that have hierarchy over the monkey debate.

There is zero chance that monkey is neutral and got a green check, and zero chance that monkey is non-GF scum, therefore:

Probability of monkey being Godfather: 20%
Probability of monkey being Town: 80%

I hope it's clear where I'm getting those numbers, and while one is bigger than the other, both are now significant. Any scenario that fits into either one of these buckets should not surpass the limit of what the (GF/Town) buckets can hold

 

[isaacnukem]

I think the problem here is that there's few scenarios in which Trigger does NOT claim. Because ti's an open setup, there was an opening for scum to fake claim; the knee jerk reaction then is to say NO. That there wasn't much benefit to a fake claim notwithstanding, it undermines Trigger claiming in the future should he need to report a red check, particularly since, in a game without Trigger's counter claim, even if we lynched Stan with no issues there, we have two flips in that period and uncertainty.

Trigger was always more likely to counter than to not counter.

I would've waited. Stanley gets lynched, turns scum, and Trigger could have gotten a full scum list(barring the godfather). So he claims, preferably before the next even day. He swears that we will lynch a red check, and he promises to be lynched the next day if we don't see red. I think it would've been a good plan.

 

[hey_monkey]

d4, kits: FEP, monkey, Sawnkees, muffin, oreo
....
My guess is still that one scum is in the FEP/Saw/nin group, and I would lean to FEP or Saw first. The other I suspect is either Muffin or oreo.

Or are we still essentially at "everyone who didn't vote kits is scum". Sure you're not going to say that but let's be real.

I'm not going to say that because that's not what I said. That is in fact completely divorced from what I said. I said you or Saw, oreo or Muffin - all of whom voted for kits.

It's weird because I still generally townread you for the effort but I don't understand at all what you think is going to happen when you're just making shit up out of thin air.

I have another question, why are flatearthpandas and Sawneeks still alive too, then?

It's a good question, especially when you see who has gotten votes in this game and who hasn't.

 

[Muffin1611]

Now the question is why is she still alive if she's so town and she's greenlit?

I'm really confused that FEP, oreo and now you bring this up. Everybody knows that the godfather role exists. Either monkey is the godfather and that's why she's not dead, or she's town and scum kept her alive to make us speculate about her being the godfather and lynch her.

It's wifom, it doesn't get us anywhere. This is not as an important thing as you all try to make it out to be. I don't know how often I have to go over this again, and I haven't heard anything yet that makes this question important. Maybe in speculating over future NKs, but nothing else.

 

[flatearthpandas]

I have another question, why are flatearthpandas and Sawneeks still alive too, then?

Because we're not green checked?

I don't understand how we have this keep coming up. "Apart from this insanely scummy thing monkey did and the fact that she hasn't been nk'd... she's been super town!"

How many scummy things is enough? She leapt onto kits yesterday but couldn't be convinced onto stan when he had a read check or when he had admitted to being scum. But kits was suspicious enough for an instant vote from monkey because she... had a shitty vote d3.

 

[Muffin1611]

Because we're not green checked?

I don't understand how we have this keep coming up. "Apart from this insanely scummy thing monkey did and the fact that she hasn't been nk'd... she's been super town!"

How many scummy things is enough? She leapt onto kits yesterday but couldn't be convinced onto stan when he had a read check or when he had admitted to being scum. But kits was suspicious enough for an instant vote from monkey because she... had a shitty vote d3.

About anyone else besides you agrees that the CM thing is typical for monkey, and doing it as scum would be too much a risk.

And you keep bringing up the green check and her not getting nk'd, when it doesn't matter at all. You have yet to disprove that argument, instead you keep ignoring it.

 

[isaacnukem]

Barring the green check, flatearthpandas, hey_monkey, and Sawneeks are pretty much the face of town. If any of you are greenlit, does that mean we should assume you're the godfather?

I'm saying she's not because I played games with her, the first being memorable to me because we townies won and I don't find anything in this game that says otherwise. In her post about the winning lynches, her not being on the only scum lynch is quiet hilarious, especially because she advocated for CM's lynch.

Would a townie as good as her turn out to be so woefully inept as scum as to actually try and do that? I don't think so. Even the newest of scum would know with their gut not to do that.

 

[flatearthpandas]

For todays vote I'm either for oreo as neutral suspect or FEP as scum. I know I said earlier that neutral would be my priority, but sleeping over it, I'm not completely sure of it anymore.

We kill neutral -> We eat a NK from scum

We kill scum -> We either eat a NK and an ignite; eat only an ignite if NK hits neutral; or nothing at all if NK hits neutral and neutral decides to burrow

The first option is playing it safe, the other one is taking a risk, but with possible great outcome.

What do you guys think? Take the risk, or play it safe?

Muffin, we've been through this. Exhaustively. If monkey is actually town, scum will not attack the neutral. They'll know exactly who to attack to guarantee a nk goes through.

 

[Muffin1611]

Muffin, we've been through this. Exhaustively. If monkey is actually town, scum will not attack the neutral. They'll know exactly who to attack to guarantee a nk goes through.

I dunno, chance of hitting the neutral was not that small last night either, and they went with rac. Wouldn't surprise me if they held off for the night after again.

But I'm still for the safe option anyway.

 

[Muffin1611]

So I'd still go with oreo. Oreo, my votes still on you and I want to hear more. You tried to explain why we shouldn't think of you as the neutral earlier this page.

Who do you think is the neutral then, if I haven't missed it?

 

[flatearthpandas]

I'm really confused that FEP, oreo and now you bring this up. Everybody knows that the godfather role exists. Either monkey is the godfather and that's why she's not dead, or she's town and scum kept her alive to make us speculate about her being the godfather and lynch her.

It's wifom, it doesn't get us anywhere. This is not as an important thing as you all try to make it out to be. I don't know how often I have to go over this again, and I haven't heard anything yet that makes this question important. Maybe in speculating over future NKs, but nothing else.

Scum doesn't allow green checked town to continue leading lynches! It doesn't make any sense.

You know what happens every game when town let's outed roles live forever? They're scum, town loses, and reads a spec thread of being laughed at. Ask monkey what happened her last game.

The only thing that gets us nowhere is not taking care of the problem. You will walk your ass right into a lose because you will never lynch her even tomorrow when she's even more inexplicably still alive, even worse if the nk is blocked, because "what are the odds." She is a detriment to town alive.

I'm not going to say that because that's not what I said. That is in fact completely divorced from what I said. I said you or Saw, oreo or Muffin - all of whom voted for kits.

I specifically said you didn't say that. Are we just not reading at fucking all today? I can literally find three times just today where you respond to things that I didn't actually say. I said you won't say it but let's be fucking real. Your scum last is literally everyone not on the kits vote yesterday. That's what it is. You've conjured up reasons to be suspicious of everyone except those who ended with their votes on kits. Now saw and i are moving our votes around too much. Ooh, suspicious. But before kits didn't move her vote around enough. Ooh suspicious. The song keeps changing and muffin keeps dancing.

I can respect isaac's read on you for now. And I'm willing to play what if in the next 24 hours and pretend you're town and figure out who the other maf is.

 

[Muffin1611]

Scum doesn't allow green checked town to continue leading lynches! It doesn't make any sense.

You know what happens every game when town let's outed roles live forever? They're scum, town loses, and reads a spec thread of being laughed at. Ask monkey what happened her last game.

The only thing that gets us nowhere is not taking care of the problem. You will walk your ass right into a lose because you will never lynch her even tomorrow when she's even more inexplicably still alive, even worse if the nk is blocked, because "what are the odds." She is a detriment to town alive.

It makes perfect sense if they think they can push monkey into a lynch they want and town will follow and also make her a lynch target for the godfather reasoning later on, like you are doing today.

The fact that your refute boils down to "How embarrassing it will be if she's scum at the end of the game" and you boil down my argument on one of odds or statistics. That's just dishonest FEP, I noted that that was a minor detail.

At this point I'm wondering if I have to link the definition of WIFOM to you, since that's exactly what this situation is.

 

[hey_monkey]

More later - work - but Sawneeks and nin are sure sitting this out, huh.

 

[flatearthpandas]

I dunno, chance of hitting the neutral was not that small last night either, and they went with rac. Wouldn't surprise me if they held off for the night after again.

But I'm still for the safe option anyway.

Yeah, they chose it because they had to. Because there is no actual guaranteed town in the game.

It does matter. Why would scum risk fucking up their kills when they don't have to? Look how much trouble I'm having arguing the case which is really just simple logic and you really want to argue back that she's alive because scum actually thinks gafia town is going to do it?

If monkey is town, they had a 1/5 chance of hitting the neutral on accident. 20% of dicking up their nk or kill green town who is leading lynches...

 

[Muffin1611]

Yeah, they chose it because they had to. Because there is no actual guaranteed town in the game.

It does matter. Why would scum risk fucking up their kills when they don't have to? Look how much trouble I'm having arguing the case which is really just simple logic and you really want to argue back that she's alive because scum actually thinks gafia town is going to do it?

If monkey is town, they had a 1/5 chance of hitting the neutral on accident. 20% of dicking up their nk or kill green town who is leading lynches...

For scum too, it's a question of taking the risk. If they not hit neutral and don't go for monkey, they can push a monkey lynch the next day even more easily than you're trying to do it right now. Hell, you're already setting up their (your?) reasoning for the next day if they decide to go that route.

 

[Muffin1611]

More later - work - but Sawneeks and nin are sure sitting this out, huh.

While I don't think that bad about Saw right now. Nin has only gotten worse for me.

This:

Don't worry. The game is still in the early phases of this day phase.
In the end my vote will go to the person I feel is the most scum. In the end I just follow my gut.





I cooled down. I just tried to explain to myself why you were flip flopping like flipper in a flipper table.

Doesn't satisfy me. You're swayed too easy, Nin. Not like this was a one-off, you don't seem to be consistent in your reads at all to me and sometimes rather go for weird conspiracy theories you just came up with.

 

[flatearthpandas]

It makes perfect sense if they think they can push monkey into a lynch they want and town will follow and also make her a lynch target for the godfather reasoning later on, like you are doing today.

The fact that your refute boils down to "How embarrassing it will be if she's scum at the end of the game" and you boil down my argument on one of odds or statistics. That's just dishonest FEP, I noted that that was a minor detail.

At this point I'm wondering if I have to link the definition of WIFOM to you, since that's exactly what this situation is.

Yeah, outsmart all that wifom by allowing the godfather into endgame. Or would you rather deal with her tomorrow when you're in lylo and she's miraculously survived another night and scum leave her alone despite having a 1/3 chance of dicking up the night kill tonight if they don't target her. What an amazing strategy!

Answer me this... If I am scum why would I want monkey lynched today so badly? She is literally a free kill tonight for me if I'm mafia. If i was neural i guarantee i would have burrowed her yesterday instead of attacking her. Why have this uphill battle getting gafia to lynch a green check and not just kill her myself if I was neutral? Neutral needs mafia dead, I had no heat. So why do I do any of this as scum of any faction? Why do I stick my head out for kits if she was town and i was maf? There's no flip to even brag about to justify myself. Why do i start the train rolling and specifically ask saw to jump on if kits is my scum partner? Where is the strategy? Why the fuck would I do that?

Oh let me guess, muffins. It's all just more wifom?

This is for monkey as well. How does my being scum parse with my actions in your opinion? Why do i draw all this attention for kits? Why do i argue your lynch when it is clearly in my best interest as mafia for you to be alive tonight?

Please. Explain it to me. Anybody.

 

[hey_monkey]

I don't think you're scum. I think your analysis that is based on real shit in this thread is pretty solid. You're just wrong, like I've been wrong, like other people have been wrong. I'm not the godfather. I probably am the best lynch today unless we find a good lead on scum or the neutral. ¯\_(&#12484_/¯

Sorry for short-for-me posts - trying to get some things finished up but am trying to keep an eye on the thread because it's easy for things to move very fast with 4 as majority.

 

[nin1000]

Doesn't satisfy me. You're swayed too easy, Nin. Not like this was a one-off, you don't seem to be consistent in your reads at all to me and sometimes rather go for weird conspiracy theories you just came up with.

I rather be like this than believe that anyone is town. At this stage of the game I don't need to satisfy anyone.

 

[flatearthpandas]

For scum too, it's a question of taking the risk. If they not hit neutral and don't go for monkey, they can push a monkey lynch the next day even more easily than you're trying to do it right now. Hell, you're already setting up their (your?) reasoning for the next day if they decide to go that route.

Lol yeah. Scum is going to chance not killing a townie in endgame so that maybe we kill a townie. Wifom! Fuck outta here.

You know who mafia wants us to lynch???? The fucking neutral!! They don't need us to kill town for them, that's the one job they can do themselves. They need the neutral lynched.

 

[oreomunsta]

So I'd still go with oreo. Oreo, my votes still on you and I want to hear more. You tried to explain why we shouldn't think of you as the neutral earlier this page.

Who do you think is the neutral then, if I haven't missed it?

Nah, you haven't missed it, because I haven't said much. I just don't know with a good degree of certainty. I can make a case against everyone left here, apart from the obvious case of monkey.

My strongest picks for neutral, I guess, would be isaac and sawn, in that order.

Isaac plays the most like what I would expect a neutral to be like. He doesn't have to be thoroughly engaged in the game as long as he's not on the public radar.

Sawn would be experienced enough to balance being a neutral while being the so-called face of town. With the way she can shape the general conversation, she could be pulling off a good "watch my right hand, while my left is invisible" style of play. She also hasn't been lynched yet, so similar to monkey, she's valuable to scum for whatever reason

 

[Muffin1611]

You know who mafia wants us to lynch???? The fucking neutral!! They don't need us to kill town for them, that's the one job they can do themselves. They need the neutral lynched.

Now I'm confused, I thought we've been through this:

Muffin, we've been through this. Exhaustively. If monkey is actually town, scum will not attack the neutral. They'll know exactly who to attack to guarantee a nk goes through.

My short analysis is old news for you. So you don't want to go for your supposed neutral but who you think is scum, namely monkey? Which is the flat out riskier scenario, especially so with your added point that monkey is 100% going to get killed if she's town?

FEP, the way you react to my points and arguments makes me think only worse of you. If you didn't go for kits last day because she "reacted calm", I guess I'm justified in thinking that you're acting pretty scummy right now?

 

[Muffin1611]

Isaac plays the most like what I would expect a neutral to be like. He doesn't have to be thoroughly engaged in the game as long as he's not on the public radar.

Well, that's pretty much also how you play, only that I think isaac made better contributions so far.

Sawn would be experienced enough to balance being a neutral while being the so-called face of town. With the way she can shape the general conversation, she could be pulling off a good "watch my right hand, while my left is invisible" style of play. She also hasn't been lynched yet, so similar to monkey, she's valuable to scum for whatever reason

I don't think that the neutral would take risks like Saw did it last day end. Saw followed an impulse there, and imo the neutral would shy away from something like that.

And yes, she still wasn't lynched, like me, you or anybody else.

 

[Sawneeks]

More later - work - but Sawneeks and nin are sure sitting this out, huh.

aw man, it's almost like i was asleep huh.

and i was drinking last night and fairly distracted.

give me a minute to catch up

 

[hey_monkey]

aw man, it's almost like i was asleep huh.

and i was drinking last night and fairly distracted.

give me a minute to catch up

no excuses, mafia all the time

 

[hey_monkey]

I went hunting to try to clear FEP in my own mind and read through some of his past posts in scum roles. Mostly shorter posts. I thought, cool, he's surely town, then I found longer ones, so that didn't help. Still lean town due to effort put in, even if some of it is pure conjuration, because I have a hard time seeing a scum work that hard.

...she said, with Sawneeks right there, so that's no measure, since we all know Sawneeks works real hard as scum.

Things that puzzle me:
-FEP has never been on the winning lynch at EoD, except for Stan. He's made a lot of twists and turns away from opinions. Will push something hard one day and so something different the next. Changes reasons for things. Am trying to decide if this is scummy or not. Hadn't really noticed how often it was happened until the shift away from kits yesterday.
-I don't know that scum FEP would work so hard to get me lynched unless he's worried about something else. Which could be a scum kits that he could play off as me being the scum. Otherwise I think it's simply incorrect town. But that would explain the move to not just turn away from kits, but to defend, and why after so much shade, he's waited until now to push me. He was so convinced Muffin was scummy yesterday but today it's me. Something about his reasoning on the neutral/scum targeting is nagging at the edges of my mind but I'm not sure what. Will consider.
-Sawneeks has voted for about half the remaining players but not me, FEP, or nin. Can understand the first two. She likes to use pressure/prod votes and we are pretty vocal. Nin, though, sometimes has to be encouraged to give reads. I know she townreads him, but never even a pressure vote?
-What is up with nin? He's been all over the place this game. I'm starting to lean back to the idea of neutral nin, shifting his play, being unpredictable.
-I have a pretty fair town read on Muffin right now. I don't think all his analysis is correct but the spirit of it seems townie.

I don't know. I'm tired.