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Dark Souls Mafia |OT| Git Gud or Die Trying

Sawneeks

Banned
I honestly think kits is town. Oreo is at the top of my neutral ladder he could almost reach the town proper.

what does that even mean

I'm really confused that FEP, oreo and now you bring this up. Everybody knows that the godfather role exists. Either monkey is the godfather and that's why she's not dead, or she's town and scum kept her alive to make us speculate about her being the godfather and lynch her.

It's wifom, it doesn't get us anywhere. This is not as an important thing as you all try to make it out to be. I don't know how often I have to go over this again, and I haven't heard anything yet that makes this question important. Maybe in speculating over future NKs, but nothing else.

To the WIFOM discussion going on, I actually agree entirely with what Muffin is saying here.

Monkey could still be alive for a myriad of reasons and trying to parse which is which is going so far down the WIFOM hole you'll never see the sun again. Making a case against Monkey for her past behaviors? Sure, that's much better than arguing we should lynch her because she's alive since we have ZERO idea why she is alive in the first place.

Lol yeah. Scum is going to chance not killing a townie in endgame so that maybe we kill a townie. Wifom! Fuck outta here.

You know who mafia wants us to lynch???? The fucking neutral!! They don't need us to kill town for them, that's the one job they can do themselves. They need the neutral lynched.

FEP how is that any different with your Monkey WIFOM of her being alive.

no excuses, mafia all the time

:<

i was going to post here last night but saw FEP's big numbers post and noped right the fuck out.
 
i was going to post here last night but saw FEP's big numbers post and noped right the fuck out.

I <3 you regardless.

Please don't be scum. (am pretty sure I have said that in EVERY GAME WITH YOU)

I had half another post written but I accidentally closed my browser so I'm gonna go work and let it marinate for a while before I start hard tunneling and OMGusing and everything else.
 

Sawneeks

Banned
I went hunting to try to clear FEP in my own mind and read through some of his past posts in scum roles. Mostly shorter posts. I thought, cool, he's surely town, then I found longer ones, so that didn't help. Still lean town due to effort put in, even if some of it is pure conjuration, because I have a hard time seeing a scum work that hard.

...she said, with Sawneeks right there, so that's no measure, since we all know Sawneeks works real hard as scum.

Things that puzzle me:
-FEP has never been on the winning lynch at EoD, except for Stan. He's made a lot of twists and turns away from opinions. Will push something hard one day and so something different the next. Changes reasons for things. Am trying to decide if this is scummy or not. Hadn't really noticed how often it was happened until the shift away from kits yesterday.
-I don't know that scum FEP would work so hard to get me lynched unless he's worried about something else. Which could be a scum kits that he could play off as me being the scum. Otherwise I think it's simply incorrect town. But that would explain the move to not just turn away from kits, but to defend, and why after so much shade, he's waited until now to push me. He was so convinced Muffin was scummy yesterday but today it's me. Something about his reasoning on the neutral/scum targeting is nagging at the edges of my mind but I'm not sure what. Will consider.
-Sawneeks has voted for about half the remaining players but not me, FEP, or nin. Can understand the first two. She likes to use pressure/prod votes and we are pretty vocal. Nin, though, sometimes has to be encouraged to give reads. I know she townreads him, but never even a pressure vote?
-What is up with nin? He's been all over the place this game. I'm starting to lean back to the idea of neutral nin, shifting his play, being unpredictable.
-I have a pretty fair town read on Muffin right now. I don't think all his analysis is correct but the spirit of it seems townie.

I don't know. I'm tired.

hi tired, i'm sawneeks

-do you have any other examples of FEP's flip-flopping? The past Day Phase is the only one I remember but I'm assuming that's just because it's fresh in my mind.
-On the topic of Nin, because I DID want to bring him up in a separate post, is that I'm actually getting kinda confused on him myself too. I think early on I kinda...meta-cleared him in my mind and now I just end up reading his posts without paying much attention to them. I finally did start paying attention to them today, mostly because of his hard-shift last Day Phase against me, and he really isn't here. I would very much like to see more from him because this isn't the Nin I saw on Day 1.
 

Sawneeks

Banned
for some side thoughts of my own:

-Oreo keeps doing that thing again where he focuses on numbers and only gives tiny reads sprinkled into his big posts, most of which equate to small gut reads. In a game with 30 pages.
-FEP is getting hyper aggressive towards Monkey and I honestly don't know what to make of it. I kinda think tunneling townie since he's making so many strawman arguments that seems like a weirdly risky thing to do as Scum.
-From what I understand of FEP's argument for lynching today it's either lynch who you think is Neutral or lynch Monkey to take away Scum's apparent 'safe NK'?
-Also from what I roughly understand from all the numbers being thrown around: we're either fucked next Day Phase because we lynch the Neutral today and enter LyLo tomorrow or we delay it by a Day Phase depending on which Anti-Town we lynch afterwards? Is that right?

I <3 you regardless.

Please don't be scum. (am pretty sure I have said that in EVERY GAME WITH YOU)

I had half another post written but I accidentally closed my browser so I'm gonna go work and let it marinate for a while before I start hard tunneling and OMGusing and everything else.

<3

i'm not, i promise
 

nin1000

Banned
I am just lost. That's the truth.

Night shift will start now and i will be more active from now on. If you like it or not. I have nothing to lose.
 
Yeah, literally the only justification I can see for scum FEP doing this unless he's misguided townie is that kits was scum and he wants town-me in that death pair so he can cover for her. But who knows. The no-flips thing is difficult.

I will post more about FEP's turns tonight while I'm in class but the more I dug back, the more it looked like he'd held far fewer positions than he'd turned on. I don't think that's necessarily AI, but it's interesting at least.
 

nin1000

Banned
OK. I will will put down my thoughts without re-reading the thread. So take this first take with a grain of salt


3. [m] nin1000
Started bold since I like to play that way.
Of course I don't want to go too ninsane. That would have killed me sooner than I wanted to.
Last time I played that way I got killed pretty soon because of me being unpredictable.

4. [m] Muffin1611
Early on not really there to begin with started to plaything game as other players started to die. I have the impression that he had to up his game in order not to get killed.
Hmm. On the one side he plays the card of still being new pretty good as seen in the last day phase. Where he said a lot but never followed up with a real vote. He changed up his game in the end of the last day phase aswell as the start of this day phase.

Not a good vibe I get from him.

2/10

5. [m] isaacnukem

All this game he did was not being here or just being there enough to not get too much attention. His posts were good and safe but nothing that sticks out. Never called anyone out and tried to stay away from conversations. I mean it's apparent that he is the neutral.

Neutral /10

9. [m] oreomunsta

The numbers man. His posts consisted of numbers early on. Same as isaac he tried to stay asway from really getting into any conversation or beef. He at least did some more in that regard I will give him that. Wants me lynched. :(

4/10

10. [m] flatearthpandas

After being a more laid back player this time around FEP went full throttle the end of the last day phase aswell as this day phase.
On the one hand it looks good that he is going full swing after the most vocal ones (mainly just Monkey) but on the other hand I am scared that his tunneling will not lead us into Victory. I just can't see him going all out like that as scum. For now a good feeling.
More like

tunneling town Player who should take a break /10



14. [f] hey_monkey

Hey monkey hey monkey ohhhh hey monkey. The very first day the game started you have been on full speed. You outshined almost every other player around you ( beside me ) because of going back and taking every single bit of information there is. A strong town player. But there lies the critical problem.
On the one hand I see myself happy having you still around. Since you are doing a great job. On the other hand I ask myself why did mafia let you alive this long?
Of course we can go into the never ending argument of they are keeping you alive because town will do the job for them.
The longer this game goes the bigger this is going to be an issue :( its just messing with my head.

Unsure what to do /10

15. [f] sawneeks

Lovely sawneeks. Strong player who I think might or may not be town. I have no idea where to put you :(


Lasty I would love to ask you FEP this. You were going pretty hard against Monkey but what about Sawneeks? She is also a very strong town player who has been one of the most vocal players yet she is still alive.
Have you considered that she might be scum?



Those are my thoughts that just came out.

I have made no decision as of yet and those thoughts can very much shift in the coming days.
 
what does that even mean
It means if pushed, I would vote for everyone under his name before him.

Anyway, I'm surprised people are tagging me as the neutral. As I said before, I'd love to take credit for taking out the hypno and the cop but alas I'm not it. Also, I would've used my burrow on scummy folks, as I love town with all my heart and I would do anything, even as a neutral, to help town win. Flattered though.

Hey arsonist, you better prepare a good speech on how you picked CM and Trigger, you hear me?
 

nin1000

Banned
Are you saying you expect to live in a couple more days? What are you, bulletproof or something? ;)

No no, sorry I just wanted to say that i did not make up my mind as of yet and it can change until the end of the day. Aka 1 day and 21 hours. That's why I said coming Days :*
 
No no, sorry I just wanted to say that i did not make up my mind as of yet and it can change until the end of the day. Aka 1 day and 21 hours. That's why I said coming Days :*
Yeah, I figured, I just checked and this day is still that long. I honestly forgot how long the days and nights are in Gafia, heh.
 
Man, I thought I had a breakthrough when I went to bed. Got some actual sleep now so feeling better. Maintaining my calm.

Now I'm confused, I thought we've been through this:



My short analysis is old news for you. So you don't want to go for your supposed neutral but who you think is scum, namely monkey? Which is the flat out riskier scenario, especially so with your added point that monkey is 100% going to get killed if she's town?

FEP, the way you react to my points and arguments makes me think only worse of you. If you didn't go for kits last day because she "reacted calm", I guess I'm justified in thinking that you're acting pretty scummy right now?

No. Check the numbers, please, muffins.
Going for mafia today gives the town a much higher chance of success. The team that benefits the most from neutral lynch today is mafia.

Anyway, I didn't defend kits because she acted calm. I defended her because she reacted differently and I felt confident I could read her in a pressure situation. Moreover, I'm not feeling pressure. As monkey pointed out, I haven't caught a vote since d1. Do I think that means you guys won't lynch me today? Nah, I could see you doing it. But I'm not too worried either way, especially because:

I asked this yesterday and I'm going to ask again. Explain to me how my actions in the last day make sense as scum of either faction. You can't wifom without plausible explanations.

There aren't a myriad of plausible explanations. Scum needs town to lynch the neutral. So why are they supposedly trying to trick is into definitely not lynching the neutral? And moreover, risking their nk success over it?

As mafia, why am i trying to lynch someone who has no chance of being the neutral? Why am I trying to lynch monkey, who could ensure my nk 100% tonight?

How are my actions plausible useful to me as mafia?


Yeah, literally the only justification I can see for scum FEP doing this unless he's misguided townie is that kits was scum and he wants town-me in that death pair so he can cover for her.
But anyone could fill that slot, it doesn't have to be you. So why you?

This scenario could only work for me as mafia. In this scenario I am burning through all of my good will in the game trying to guarantee we don't lynch the neutral today, who could potentially ignite me tonight. I'm trying to lynch the only potential nk target i know for a fact won't block my kill.

Why?

So I don't have to apologize tomorrow for being wrong about kits, assuming I don't get ignited tonight by the neutral I actively didn't hunt?
 
Lasty I would love to ask you FEP this. You were going pretty hard against Monkey but what about Sawneeks? She is also a very strong town player who has been one of the most vocal players yet she is still alive.
Have you considered that she might be scum?

I was going to look at saw today. She actually seems quieter than I expected but I poked into some other games and she's about average activity I guess.

I had a vote on saw in one of the earlier days because I felt like she was not being strict enough and allowing garbage to sift through the discussion on the same merits as useful topics. But she's been calling stuff out and I've found her reads consistent. It's possible she could be scum, and I would say neutral if I had to pin a role to her.
 

Sawneeks

Banned
I would rather want to see the neutral go today. The thought if getting ignited is killing me inside

OK. I will will put down my thoughts without re-reading the thread. So take this first take with a grain of salt


3. [m] nin1000
Started bold since I like to play that way.
Of course I don't want to go too ninsane. That would have killed me sooner than I wanted to.
Last time I played that way I got killed pretty soon because of me being unpredictable.

You suddenly seem awfully worried about dying too soon. :x

Also why Isaac > Oreo? Isaac has given more of his thoughts and is usually fairly upfront with them while Oreo you kinda have to pry them out of him.

It means if pushed, I would vote for everyone under his name before him.

Why? What's pushing you to the other two before Oreo?

I was going to look at saw today. She actually seems quieter than I expected but I poked into some other games and she's about average activity I guess.

I had a vote on saw in one of the earlier days because I felt like she was not being strict enough and allowing garbage to sift through the discussion on the same merits as useful topics. But she's been calling stuff out and I've found her reads consistent. It's possible she could be scum, and I would say neutral if I had to pin a role to her.

oreo calls me scummy for controlling the situation, FEP calls me scummy for not controlling it enough.

i can't win here can i
 
for some side thoughts of my own:

-Oreo keeps doing that thing again where he focuses on numbers and only gives tiny reads sprinkled into his big posts, most of which equate to small gut reads. In a game with 30 pages.

You crack me up, Sawn :p between this and the posts below, what's holding you back from voting me now? Between you and Muffin, you guys would have half the votes you need. I don't know what kind of a read I need to give you guys for it to come off as "strong"

The numbers man. His posts consisted of numbers early on. Same as isaac he tried to stay asway from really getting into any conversation or beef. He at least did some more in that regard I will give him that. Wants me lynched. :(

Sorry Nin, while you are definitely fun to read when you make bold plays, you can't be blind to how that comes off at times. I've hit my limit for how much I can brush off as ninsanity before I really start to wonder
 

nin1000

Banned
Sorry Nin, while you are definitely fun to read when you make bold plays, you can't be blind to how that comes off at times. I've hit my limit for how much I can brush off as ninsanity before I really start to wonder

I hope you did not take it personal oreomunsta. In no way did I try to come off as a dick.
 
I hope you did not take it personal oreomunsta. In no way did I try to come off as a dick.

Nah, not at all, so not to worry :) this is all part of the game, and I hope you don't take my comments personally, either. We're down to seven people, with 3 anti town in the mix. It's time we start drawing lines and suspect everything
 
Well, that's pretty much also how you play, only that I think isaac made better contributions so far.

I don't think that the neutral would take risks like Saw did it last day end. Saw followed an impulse there, and imo the neutral would shy away from something like that.

And yes, she still wasn't lynched, like me, you or anybody else.

That's fine if you feel like Isaac's posts are better than mine and if you disagree that sawn couldn't be balancing two identities, but your doubting of me here is feeling disingenuous.

The reason that I bring up Sawn as not yet lynched is due to her strong activity, much stronger than yours or mine. She's doing a lot of work trying to root out individuals, and has gone over almost everyone in the game, so I find it odd that scum wouldn't have chosen to put out her searchlight. In the case of you, who has been doing more defending and tunneling of a few individuals like me, scum wouldn't really care too much, because you'd be lower risk in general
 

nin1000

Banned
Nah, not at all, so not to worry :) this is all part of the game, and I hope you don't take my comments personally, either. We're down to seven people, with 3 anti town in the mix. It's time we start drawing lines and suspect everything

Sure. If i came off as scummy I can't say anything against it, since you said it yourself. Everyone could be scum at this point.
That's why my read list does not list anyone as town. I can't be certain.
 
DAY 5 CURRENT VOTE TALLY:

oreomunsta (1) 3 more votes to majority
Muffin1611 1491

isaacnukem (0): hey_monkey 1524 1534

hey_monkey (0): flatearthpandas 1501 1544, flatearthpandas 1544 1565

No active vote for Day 5: flatearthpandas (has previously voted), hey_monkey (has previously voted), isaacnukem, nin1000, oreomunsta, Sawneeks

Day 5 Postcount: flatearthpandas 26, hey_monkey 24, isaacnukem 18, Muffin1611 32, nin1000 14, oreomunsta 8, Sawneeks 10


Day 5 ends:
bla_1506625200.png

Automated vote tally here

4 votes for majority
 

Sawneeks

Banned
You crack me up, Sawn :p between this and the posts below, what's holding you back from voting me now? Between you and Muffin, you guys would have half the votes you need. I don't know what kind of a read I need to give you guys for it to come off as "strong"

Because it would count up to half the votes we need lol. Would rather not get us THAT close to a turbo with more than 24 hours left.

That's fine if you feel like Isaac's posts are better than mine and if you disagree that sawn couldn't be balancing two identities, but your doubting of me here is feeling disingenuous.

The reason that I bring up Sawn as not yet lynched is due to her strong activity, much stronger than yours or mine. She's doing a lot of work trying to root out individuals, and has gone over almost everyone in the game, so I find it odd that scum wouldn't have chosen to put out her searchlight. In the case of you, who has been doing more defending and tunneling of a few individuals like me, scum wouldn't really care too much, because you'd be lower risk in general

It's possible I'm on the completely wrong track. I know when I play Scum we'd usually try to keep some of the loud people alive who were rather off-base/flip-floppy because they ended up screaming at each other and not Scum. They'd usually tear Town apart themselves and we'd sit back and just kinda watch. :x
 
It's possible I'm on the completely wrong track. I know when I play Scum we'd usually try to keep some of the loud people alive who were rather off-base/flip-floppy because they ended up screaming at each other and not Scum. They'd usually tear Town apart themselves and we'd sit back and just kinda watch. :x
I can't imagine there's much reason to kill off town who'll kill themselves.

I'm going back through some things. I missed some questions and I have some old stuff to look at. Was a 12-hour day on campus and I am le tired.
 
Hello. I'm not the arsonist. That would be awesome if true though. As for not voting, I fell asleep before the deadline. I would've voted for nin or Muffin. Be right back.

It means if pushed, I would vote for everyone under his name before him.

Anyway, I'm surprised people are tagging me as the neutral. As I said before, I'd love to take credit for taking out the hypno and the cop but alas I'm not it. Also, I would've used my burrow on scummy folks, as I love town with all my heart and I would do anything, even as a neutral, to help town win. Flattered though.

Hey arsonist, you better prepare a good speech on how you picked CM and Trigger, you hear me?

Why would the arsonist be awesome?

If you love town so much, why are there two days with no vote record for you whatsoever? Not a vote/unvote, just nothing. It's not like you. It wasn't like you in PP mafia, it wasn't like you in Just Mafia, and inFamous Mafia was a bit strange, but you stumped there at the end.

So where's your love for town here? You passed on town's best power not once but twice.
 
Why would the arsonist be awesome?

If you love town so much, why are there two days with no vote record for you whatsoever? Not a vote/unvote, just nothing. It's not like you. It wasn't like you in PP mafia, it wasn't like you in Just Mafia, and inFamous Mafia was a bit strange, but you stumped there at the end.

So where's your love for town here? You passed on town's best power not once but twice.
I hate first days, and I fell asleep on the other day. If I recall correctly, majority of the people on the recent day I didn't vote haven't even voted yet from the point where I left off. I'm very sorry, but I'm not infallible.

As for the arsonist being awesome, they hit the hypno and the cop. What are the odds of that?
 
I understand why others see me as neutral, I'd probably be thinking similarily if I was in your/their spots. But let me bring up something - who the hell was killed by the neutral? CM and Trigger? They would have been non-targets at the time of burrowing, and if I'm really "all-numbers", I wouldn't have been that loose with my picks because it wouldn't give me, oreo, the best chances at moving forward. I would've put at least one person that I felt was mildly suspicious of me along with someone like CM and Trigger. That would take some of the future heat off me while I could've still laid relatively low.
I'm not sure I agree. The neutral has a very difficult win con - be the last player alive. They wouldn't want to do anything to bring the slightest suspicion on them. It would probably be wise to target very different people than you've interacted with at all, something that's almost impossible at this point.

This narrative of me being only numbers is really not productive anymore, unless you guys want to go ahead and just lynch me :/
I do find it interesting that FEP has run numbers often as well, despite saying he never maths, and so has Sawneeks, but no one's called them out for it. I think some mechanics talk is necessary in this kind of game and you have done more, though especially lately after being called out.

That reason was her "Don't worry guys, scum can't talk it out!" comment.
Other people said this kind of stuff earlier in the game.

I find something odd in you saying that to make scum's chances worse, we must lynch monkey, who I think most here can agree she isn't ~the~ scummiest in the game. This sounds like an argument for in order for us to hurt scum's chances the most, we must purposefully lynch some of the potential town we have left
^^^^^^

Why has monkey not been NK'd, while Verelios was killed the night of the greenlight? I think that because Verelios was under some scrutiny at that time (I know I'm partially guilty of that), while monkey was a strong town lean for many, it was more valuable for scum to NK Verelios, and let town grow suspicious of those who threw shade at him, and monkey.
Not helping my case here, but I think the opposite is more likely - kill me and leave Vere if you want to foment discord. Which is why I think it's because I've been LOLWRONG a lot. :/
 
I hate first days, and I fell asleep on the other day. If I recall correctly, majority of the people on the recent day I didn't vote haven't even voted yet from the point where I left off. I'm very sorry, but I'm not infallible.

As for the arsonist being awesome, they hit the hypno and the cop. What are the odds of that?

If you're so pro-town you'd throw the game as a neutral just to help town, what do you do if you roll scum?

I had some things about FEP from earlier in the game about shifts but they're on my work computer so y'all have to wait until tomorrow. I'm going over this stuff from today and then going to bed.

Monkey, you have any actual reads for all this shade? Or are we still essentially at "everyone who didn't vote kits is scum". Sure you're not going to say that but let's be real.
I already addressed this once but I wanted to come back to it. Plenty of people who didn't vote kits are people I'm not after. rac was one. Not particularly interested in chasing nin right now. Not after Sawneeks, who was there but switched off, like you. As for reads, I've been posting reads today. Yesterday. Every day. Like the comment that I'm not scum hunting, this is completely constructed. Shit, dude, if there's one thing I do, it's post.

It looks to me like FEP also has some inconsistencies about who should go after the neutral today, us or mafia or everyone or what. I'll have to look at that tomorrow. First, though, I want to address this:

I said everything that needs to be said here yesterday. Vocal on every mislynch, vocally against the only scum we actually hit, absolute ridiculous shade. How is being townread suspicious? You have a fucking green check and you've been alive for days. Are you joking me??
So why vote kits and then Muffin yesterday and not me? If you are so convinced I'm scum, why would you wait until today? In fact, FEP didn't make these arguments he's made about me today yesterday, because after saying this during the Stan/CM debacle:

Guys we're not going to logic out CM today. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bunch of us blow up from the neutral today either.

What we know for sure is that scum didn't find the neutral because they have successfully killed both nights. That rules out CM being scum and baiting us into killing the neutral while revealing town prs in trade. Whatever CM was doing, it wasn't that. But with an ignite possibly coming, now isn't the time to be plotting future lynches.

As muffin said, all Stan had to do was not fucking claim scum after anyone accused him of being hypnotized, even if there were competing claims (which there weren't). It is absolute madness if we don't lynch him today. If he is town we ought to be angry with him after the game but not lynching him is just insanity.

Monkey, congrats on your red flag for the CM vote.

If I survive the night, everyone who has even hinted about not lynching Stan is in the crosshairs. This is going back to D1 "we just don't need these people" mentality.

CM was anti-town as fuck but no-one has countered the hypnotist claim. Stanley, being the target of it, claimed scum. As in, the one thing this power would force scum to do and no one else. No matter how much you don't trust CM, this is the most blatantly anti-town thing to happen in the entire game. There is no argument.

So the real question is: why would you want to keep me alive? You shaded me multiple times. Here's another:

But really, all this staring at the votes really points out monkey. On every lynch except for stan. That's just bizarro world to me. Maybe green checks make you bold.

But despite starting the day saying you had a good feeling on Muffin, you pursued him instead of me.

But you did start your narrative creation project re: me then, with this lower key post:
Hard turn? I don't think so. Is been a long few days for me but this day phase started or aggressive to get some actual reads on people. Is basically been the game for me minus day 3, mixed in with periods of lower activity.

Straight up, anyone using my activity as a reason to stay on kits is full of shit. Very convenient way to keep on with an easy mislynch.

Your shift on kits was part of my analysis on her. It certainly wasn't all of it. Not even a big part. But for you it was just another log on the fire for scum!monkey. But you still didn't vote me.

Says the person defending outed scum yesterday?
My mind is literally just blown. Leapt onto kits easily.

I've been pretty clear on this so far, but monkey is playing a hard oblivious and that is an actual antitown genuine scum tactics. That was saw last game, "sure this insanely antitown thing seems really scummy... but it could be town!"

Since when is keeping the vote active scummy? Is like the polar opposite. Rac looks great in my eyes now. Nin is looking good as well.

Despite thinking I'm the scummiest person in the whole game. I've blown your mind so many times. But you keep me alive. I'm a detriment. But I'm here; you voted kits, then muffin, then said you didn't have time to switch to me, despite using so many posts to set a case for me. Had you changed your vote to me, no one would have batted an eye. But you didn't.

Why? Because I don't think it's for this:

Why yell about the doctor? I said in the post, to give scum some wifom. If doctor is alive, they are potentially blocking nks. Presumably on their top town or themselves.

I finished the day throwing shade at monkey. If I was the doctor, who would I be unlikely to be protecting? Who is definitely not neutral? Monkey would be the safest nk last night imo. Posted last second in case the doctor really is alive so there wouldn't be any drama.

Looking back, so much of what you've said to me today is starting to feel like projecting.

vote: flatearthpandas
 
I already addressed this once but I wanted to come back to it. Plenty of people who didn't vote kits are people I'm not after. rac was one. Not particularly interested in chasing nin right now. Not after Sawneeks, who was there but switched off, like you.

Garbage.
Rac is already dead and confirmed town, why in the literal fuck would he be on your scum list? You specifically called out nin as well.

That is a good goddamned question.

If kits was town, and there's two scum and one neutral left, then I think there is one scum in the FEP/Sawneeks/nin group as I said earlier. But I'll tell you, the last day phase and the start of this one has shaken up my impressions. Sawneeks flopping her vote around. Impressions of nin going back and forth - is followernin scum or town? I've gone back and forth on Muffin a lot in the past couple phases. In general I feel like I got good reads in and then everything changed.

I need to go back and look at patterns.

Just to be clear, if kits was town you think scum was hiding in the group that didn't lynch her?

My guess is still that one scum is in the FEP/Saw/nin group, and I would lean to FEP or Saw first. The other I suspect is either Muffin or oreo. I don't know what to do with isaac.

More later - work - but Sawneeks and nin are sure sitting this out, huh.

Is this your scum hunting I've heard so much about? Or was it your near constant stream of mislynches? Was it when you just listed out who had voted for who?

screenshot_20170926-1tis90.png


So why vote kits and then Muffin yesterday and not me? If you are so convinced I'm scum, why would you wait until today?

...

Despite thinking I'm the scummiest person in the whole game. I've blown your mind so many times. But you keep me alive. I'm a detriment. But I'm here; you voted kits, then muffin, then said you didn't have time to switch to me, despite using so many posts to set a case for me. Had you changed your vote to me, no one would have batted an eye. But you didn't.

Getting our timelines mixed up here. I accused you at the end of the day, after kits and muffins. I started off calling you scum today and immediately voted so I'm not sure where this "you keep me alive" business is coming except just clumsy attempts at low-key shade.

I jumped on muffin in the first day right after kits to try and guage his reactions as well and found them less than ideal. I was less sure of muffin being scum than i was just sure of kits being town so i kept on him. I was putting you on any town lists but there was a perfectly fine explanation for you being alive since Verelios (the other green check surprise surprise) was the previous nk and the neutral had just ignited.

I didn't go after you yesterday because by the time I realized how purposefully obtuse you were being and really found your responses scummy there was absolutely no chance of swinging it. I didn't switch votes to you because muffin was neck and neck and it was better to try and get votes into maybe scum muffin than start a new train on you.



I don't think you're scum. I think your analysis that is based on real shit in this thread is pretty solid. You're just wrong, like I've been wrong, like other people have been wrong. I'm not the godfather. I probably am the best lynch today unless we find a good lead on scum or the neutral. ¯_(&#12484;)_/¯
My now who is flip flopping? What am I, monkey? Maf or neutral?
This scenario could only work for me as mafia. In this scenario I am burning through all of my good will in the game trying to guarantee we don't lynch the neutral today, who could potentially ignite me tonight. I'm trying to lynch the only potential nk target i know for a fact won't block my kill.

Why?

So I don't have to apologize tomorrow for being wrong about kits, assuming I don't get ignited tonight by the neutral I actively didn't hunt?


With no explanation for why I would want to lynch monkey as mafia instead of the neutral or why I would stick my neck out for kits yesterday as a neutral your vote is so much nothing and maybe your scum will finally start showing for others.

The things I have done have no reasonable explanation as scum unless I am purposefully trying to throw the game. Think about it. With your brains. What team am I on? Make a case.

So the real question is: why would you want to keep me alive?

Let me do some quality info gathering for the town real quick.
DAY 5 CURRENT VOTE TALLY:

hey_monkey (0): flatearthpandas 1501 1544, flatearthpandas 1544 1565

I don't.

Vote: hey_monkey

She is lying, misleading scum with no actual case. Sorry try to argue that I'm mafia because I tried to save kits yesterday.

If kits was town maf wouldn't defend her.
If kits was maf there is one maf member remaining. That member may be burrowed. They need to kill the neutral today or else maf may lose the game.
If I was maf, it is against my best interests to pursue this lynch.

Open to reasonable questions.
 
Sorry, missed some stuff. Basically just more examples of monkey lying.

If It looks to me like FEP also has some inconsistencies about who should go after the neutral today, us or mafia or everyone or what. I'll have to look at that tomorrow.

Wrong. My position began as hunting neutrals and changed during the first numbers post (see below) when I saw the best scenarios for town involve us hitting mafia today and not neutral. Pretty low-key for a lot, not really a big deal on its own. God knows i forgive anyone for not reading the numbers posts but... maybe, if you're trying to lynch someone, it pays to keep up.

...Now, if we get neutral

D5: 7p 4t 2m 1n
D6: 5p 3t 2m 0n

This is d6 lylo. Standard. Town still needs two maf lynches in a row to win.

I would prefer to lynch mafia today actually.

...

Tl;dr
We have one ML available where we can still win
If we lynch neutral today we go into standard lylo tomorrow
If we lynch mafia today anything can happen. God case we enter tomorrow with all current town players still alive.


Now, I think monkey is mafia. I think lynching mafia gives town the best chance of winning.

Been through this quote already but forgot to add this and it's important.
Despite thinking I'm the scummiest person in the whole game. I've blown your mind so many times. But you keep me alive. I'm a detriment. But I'm here; you voted kits, then muffin, then said you didn't have time to switch to me, despite using so many posts to set a case for me. Had you changed your vote to me, no one would have batted an eye. But you didn't.

Using so many posts. Quoted below is the first time I attacked you. Note the time stamp. 11 minutes before day end. 03:49. This is when my mind was first blown. On mobile. I didn't use so many posts to set a case, my eyes opened at the very end of the day and I went on a verbal attack in the last ten minutes and followed up on it today. You've grossly misrepresented the situation here.

Says the person defending outed scum yesterday?
My mind is literally just blown. Leapt onto kits easily.

I've been pretty clear on this so far, but monkey is playing a hard oblivious and that is an actual antitown genuine scum tactics. That was saw last game, "sure this insanely antitown thing seems really scummy... but it could be town!"

Since when is keeping the vote active scummy? Is like the polar opposite. Rac looks great in my eyes now. Nin is looking good as well.
Like i said, you weren't making my town lists and i did indeed call you out on your anti-town garbage d3, but this was the first time i attacked you. 11 minutes before day end.
 

Sawneeks

Banned
Garbage.

Is this your scum hunting I've heard so much about? Or was it your near constant stream of mislynches? Was it when you just listed out who had voted for who?
.

This is going to come off really asshole-like but

have you actually read most of the game, FEP? Like, honestly. Monkey is one of the few people I've seen actually scum hunting and the fact that you repeatedly keep calling her out for not doing that is absolutely ridiculous and is not helping your case. It feels like you're purposefully cherry-picking examples of her from this Day Phase and not previous ones that fit your narrative.

Wrong. My position began as hunting neutrals and changed during the first numbers post (see below) when I saw the best scenarios for town involve us hitting mafia today and not neutral. Pretty low-key for a lot, not really a big deal on its own. God knows i forgive anyone for not reading the numbers posts but... maybe, if you're trying to lynch someone, it pays to keep up.

This is my fault for not taking the time to sit down and go over everything in-depth but are you forgetting the fact that most of your scenarios involve the Neutral hitting Scum in order for us to come out on top?

Anyway, for some mechanics.

7 players

4 town
2 mafia (ignite came d3, neutral definitely wasn't the 1 antitown we know is gone)
1 neutral

We know monkey cannot be neutral.

Town can afford two mislynches and still win, best case scenario. But that requires the neutral to ignite mafia and mafia to try and nk the neutral.

That looks like
D4: 9p, 6t, 2m, 1n
D5: 7p, 4t, 2m, 1n
D6: 5p 3t 1m 1n

No, I was wrong. Town loses this game in two mislynches barring complete ineptitude from the scum. It would look something like this:

D7: 4p 2t 1m 1n

This means the mafia attacked the neutral twice. Absolute stupidity, but town would theoretically be able to pull a win.

So no, we have one ml available if that. Worst case scenario, we can lose the game tonight

D5: 7p 4t 2m 1n
D6: 4p 1t 2m 1n

We ml, maf hits town, neutral ignites town. Town loses, either scum team can win.

D7 (town lynched, maf hits n): 3p 0t 2m 1n
Maf wins
D7 (maf lynched, maf hits town): 2p 0t 1m 1n
Tie vote, maf can't kill neutral, neutral eventual burrows and ignites.
Neutral wins
D7 (maf lynched, hits neutral): 3p 1t 1m 1n
Town lynch neutral wins.
Mafia lynch neutral wins
Neutral lynch mafia wins

What this means is we need to get our scummiest player dead today. Going to run the numbers in a second, but i think we should go for mafia. Mafia also fears the neutral and can blend in perfectly today putting forth actual effort (muffins scumhunting is going to be a scum tell today in scumception). But let's pretend we get mafia today.

D5: 7p 4t 2m 1n
D6: 4p 2t 1m 1n

Still pretty grim actually. This is a bad case in which maf hits town and neutral ignites town. However, if town can hit the next maf

D7: 3p 2t 0m 1n

And then hit the neutral D7 for a win. Not great odds but this is doable and again assumes a bad night.

Variations include

D6 (nk hits n, town ignite): 5p 3t 1m 1n
D6 (nk hits town, maf ignite): 4p 2t 0m 1n
D6 (nk hits n, maf ignite): 5p 4t 0m 1n

Actually there's a bunch but again even or worst case is still winnable if we get maf.

Now, if we get neutral

D5: 7p 4t 2m 1n
D6: 5p 3t 2m 0n

This is d6 lylo. Standard. Town still needs two maf lynches in a row to win.

I would prefer to lynch mafia today actually. Even our worst case scenario is doable and the neutral adds in a lot of potential favorable opportunities such as a mafia ignite or wasting a nk. Now here's an interesting thing. I want to revisit hell scenario where we ml today, eat a nk, and eat an ignite.

Because you are gambling A LOT on the chance that not only is Monkey Scum but that the Neutral hits Mafia for us as well when they have a WAY higher chance of scoring Town. Stop saying 'lynching Mafia is our best shot here', more aptly you should say 'lynch Mafia and hope the Neutral is a damn good shot and hates Scum or else we're still fucked'. Does the NK introduce the element of a wasted NK? Yes, and that helps us as the game dwindles but also is dependent on Scum hitting them which they still haven't done. But you're forgetting the key fact that the Neutral is WAY more likely to hit Town due to how many more players we have than them hitting Scum, something you seem to just be eagerly handwaving away.

So, uh, I'm a bit sick and just woke up at 5pm. Not sure if I'll contribute much today.

Feel better!

Where the hell is everyone? No one cares who dies between me and money?

Not at 1 AM. :U
 

Sawneeks

Banned
Okay, real talk, how likely is it that FEP is Scum and went all-out because his buddy Kits died?

Similarly, I said this as a joke earlier, but what's the chance he's the Neutral?

Because I have my own guesses on both but want to know what others think first.
 
Okay, real talk, how likely is it that FEP is Scum and went all-out because his buddy Kits died?

Similarly, I said this as a joke earlier, but what's the chance he's the Neutral?

Because I have my own guesses on both but want to know what others think first.

I think today he acted really scummy imo which prompted me to look at his vote of me last day which I gave him a bit of a pass for, and that was a really badly justified one. So, FEP is my strongest scum read rn.

I would say that there's no chance in hell FEP is the neutral, though.
 

Sawneeks

Banned
I think today he acted really scummy imo which prompted me to look at his vote of me last day which I gave him a bit of a pass for, and that was a really badly justified one. So, FEP is my strongest scum read rn.

I would say that there's no chance in hell FEP is the neutral, though
.

So do you think Kits was Scum?

Also, why not the Neutral?
 
So do you think Kits was Scum?

Also, why not the Neutral?

My scum read is not necessarily tied to kits being scum, but I find it probable, yes.

For a neutral FEP has been acting way too much in the spotlight, pushing for a lynch of a town read player, discussing with me this long, etc. imo.
 

Sawneeks

Banned
My scum read is not necessarily tied to kits being scum, but I find it probable, yes.

For a neutral FEP has been acting way too much in the spotlight, pushing for a lynch of a town read player, discussing with me this long, etc. imo.

Then what do you think pushed a Scum!FEP, who was universally Town Read, to act this way and cast himself in such a negative light? He could've just continued on as normal and likely would have never been caught.

Have you considered a Neutral FEP putting himself in the spotlight on purpose?
 

Sawneeks

Banned
My scum read is not necessarily tied to kits being scum, but I find it probable, yes.

For a neutral FEP has been acting way too much in the spotlight, pushing for a lynch of a town read player, discussing with me this long, etc. imo.

Also what does that have to do with FEP being Neutral?
 
Okay, real talk, how likely is it that FEP is Scum and went all-out because his buddy Kits died?

Similarly, I said this as a joke earlier, but what's the chance he's the Neutral?

Because I have my own guesses on both but want to know what others think first.

You know, until today, I would not have thought this was even really possible. But honestly, who's left?

Muffin: Just seems to be trying, maybe not always right, maybe not always the best tone, but delivering reads and ideas (despite narratives on the contrary)

nin1000: anything is possible here and his lack of presence/thought today isn't helping

Sawneeks: excellent at being anti-town but seems to be contributing as well as pushing this game and ScumNeeks usually does more of the latter

oreo: back and forth throughout the game, some OMGus, some sideways analysis, but better performance in the past phases - fear of the callout/vote or just a townie surfacing after some of the noise faded? Uncertain here.

isaac: I find his anti-neutral, pro-town narrative contradictory to his performance in the game and I do wonder if he could be disinterested scum, on an outside chance.

And then we have FEP, who for some reason has taken a major turn. Contradictions, creating things out of thin air for full-on narrative construction, maybe not an uptick in emotional responses (pretty consistent there) but they feel more obvious. The question I can't quite answer is why any of this. He says I'm bold; maybe that's projection and he's feeling untouchable after catching no heat? That's simplistic, but. Maybe something happened that we don't know about. But he's gone from not suspicious to quite. Why would he do this?

Garbage.
Rac is already dead and confirmed town, why in the literal fuck would he be on your scum list? You specifically called out nin as well.
You're being reductive here, talking around the discussion rather than engaging. Of course rac's not on my scum list. I'm saying that's someone I had town read. I might have called nin out, but that doesn't mean I'm voting him today. But what of the rest?

I'm not going to address some of the visceral, insulting remarks. Unproductive.

Getting our timelines mixed up here. I accused you at the end of the day, after kits and muffins. I started off calling you scum today and immediately voted so I'm not sure where this "you keep me alive" business is coming except just clumsy attempts at low-key shade.
You started building that up the day of the Stan lynch. You said I had a red flag, was dead weight, was anti-town. Then you dropped it in favor of kits, then Muffin.

I was putting you on any town lists
This is a lie. You called me scum at least twice that I can remember off the top of my head last day phase and said I was 99% scum while Muffin was 70%ish. That's not a town list.

My now who is flip flopping? What am I, monkey? Maf or neutral?
Uncertainty over your zigzagging behavior is not flip-flopping.

With no explanation for why I would want to lynch monkey as mafia instead of the neutral or why I would stick my neck out for kits yesterday as a neutral your vote is so much nothing and maybe your scum will finally start showing for others.

The things I have done have no reasonable explanation as scum unless I am purposefully trying to throw the game. Think about it. With your brains. What team am I on? Make a case.
You've made your own. You are lying, blatantly, boldly. You have been pointing fingers at one person while voting another, even though you said one (me) was more likely scum than the other (Muffin).

She is lying, misleading scum with no actual case. Sorry try to argue that I'm mafia because I tried to save kits yesterday.
Not even the foundation for my case here.

If kits was town maf wouldn't defend her.
You mean like if I was mafia, I wouldn't defend Stan? Which you keep saying I did.

So, uh, I'm a bit sick and just woke up at 5pm. Not sure if I'll contribute much today.

sorry, Muffinster! this game is killing us alllllll
 
My scum read is not necessarily tied to kits being scum, but I find it probable, yes.

For a neutral FEP has been acting way too much in the spotlight, pushing for a lynch of a town read player, discussing with me this long, etc. imo.

Whatever FEP is - town on a tear, neutral, mafia - he's changed his tactic. Part of me wonders if continual discussion of how the neutral would not do x, y, z may have emboldened him. Would a neutral grow more bold now, or keep on the same track? What if that person (of any alignment) had no suspicion and was top town read? Will speculation unlock anything?
 

Sawneeks

Banned
You know, until today, I would not have thought this was even really possible. But honestly, who's left?

Muffin: Just seems to be trying, maybe not always right, maybe not always the best tone, but delivering reads and ideas (despite narratives on the contrary)

nin1000: anything is possible here and his lack of presence/thought today isn't helping

Sawneeks: excellent at being anti-town but seems to be contributing as well as pushing this game and ScumNeeks usually does more of the latter

oreo: back and forth throughout the game, some OMGus, some sideways analysis, but better performance in the past phases - fear of the callout/vote or just a townie surfacing after some of the noise faded? Uncertain here.

isaac: I find his anti-neutral, pro-town narrative contradictory to his performance in the game and I do wonder if he could be disinterested scum, on an outside chance.

And then we have FEP, who for some reason has taken a major turn. Contradictions, creating things out of thin air for full-on narrative construction, maybe not an uptick in emotional responses (pretty consistent there) but they feel more obvious. The question I can't quite answer is why any of this. He says I'm bold; maybe that's projection and he's feeling untouchable after catching no heat? That's simplistic, but. Maybe something happened that we don't know about. But he's gone from not suspicious to quite. Why would he do this?

You typed all of this and yet somehow still didn't end up answering my question as to whether you think FEP is more likely to be Scum or Neutral.

i'm impressed tbh
 
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