December 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes January 13th

D

donny2112

Member
What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Tuesday, January 13th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: November 30, 2014-January 3, 2015 (5 weeks, November was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: Thursday, January 15th @ 4 p.m. EST (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Format:
Note: PS3 and WIU will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. They are not included for point results.

[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[PS4] 1000K       [PS4] 1m
[PS4] 1,000,000   [PS4] 1.000.000
[PS4] 1000000     [PS4] - 1000000


Potential hardware impacting events in November:
Summary
XB1 Holiday $50 price drop Nov. 2-Jan. 3 (35 days)
It's December (e.g. gift buying, retail sales)! (35 days)



COMPREHENSIVE LIST OF USA RETAIL CONSOLE HARDWARE + SOFTWARE RELEASES IN THE DECEMBER 2014 NPD REPORTING PERIOD (35 DAYS OF TRACKING, 2014-11-30 THROUGH 2015-01-03)

List compiled by Aquamarine for NeoGAF




N.B. #1: A "FULL RELEASE" means that the game was available for sale at ALL of the Top 5 USA retailer networks for video games that are tracked by NPD:

1) GAMESTOP - 4,183 TOTAL RETAIL STORES IN THE USA AS OF 2014-11-01
- 185TH MOST POPULAR WEBSITE IN THE USA ACCORDING TO ALEXA ANALYTICS

2) WALMART - 5,009 TOTAL RETAIL STORES IN THE USA AS OF 2014-11-30
- 3,400 TRADITIONAL WALMART RETAIL STORES
- 964 OTHER WALMART RETAIL STORES
- 645 SAM'S CLUB RETAIL STORES
- 24TH MOST POPULAR WEBSITE IN THE USA ACCORDING TO ALEXA ANALYTICS

3) TARGET - 1,801 TOTAL RETAIL STORES IN THE USA AS OF 2014-11-01
- 34TH MOST POPULAR WEBSITE IN THE USA ACCORDING TO ALEXA ANALYTICS

4) BEST BUY - 1,473 TOTAL RETAIL STORES IN THE USA AS OF 2014-11-01
- 1,052 TRADITIONAL BEST BUY STORES
- 421 OTHER STORES
- 30TH MOST POPULAR WEBSITE IN THE USA ACCORDING TO ALEXA ANALYTICS

5) AMAZON - 3RD MOST POPULAR WEBSITE IN THE USA ACCORDING TO ALEXA ANALYTICS




SONY PLAYSTATION 4:

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uhTCCZx.jpg
LRwVp9N.jpg
pL2f5E7.jpg
UkCFMK3.jpg
87YgdNQ.jpg
saa4MTg.jpg


1) THE CREW (2014-12-02, UBISOFT, $59.99 MSRP, 33 DAYS OF NPD TRACKING) (FULL RELEASE)

2) THE CREW LIMITED EDITION (2014-12-02, UBISOFT, $59.99 MSRP, 33 DAYS OF NPD TRACKING) (FULL RELEASE)

3) TERRARIA SPECIAL EDITION (2014-12-02, 505 GAMES, $29.99 MSRP, 33 DAYS OF NPD TRACKING) (LIMITED RELEASE - NOT AVAILABLE AT TARGET)

4) PURE CHESS (2014-12-05, PLAY IT, $19.99 MSRP, 30 DAYS OF NPD TRACKING) (LIMITED RELEASE - NOT AVAILABLE AT GAMESTOP, WALMART, OR TARGET)

5) PURE POOL (2014-12-05, PLAY IT, $19.99 MSRP, 30 DAYS OF NPD TRACKING) (LIMITED RELEASE - NOT AVAILABLE AT GAMESTOP, WALMART, OR TARGET)

6) STICK IT TO THE MAN (2014-12-05, PLAY IT, $19.99 MSRP, 30 DAYS OF NPD TRACKING) (LIMITED RELEASE - NOT AVAILABLE AT GAMESTOP, WALMART, OR TARGET)

7) LARA CROFT AND THE TEMPLE OF OSIRIS DIGIPACK (2014-12-09, SQUARE ENIX, $29.99 MSRP, 26 DAYS OF NPD TRACKING) (FULL RELEASE)

8) GUILTY GEAR XRD -SIGN- (2014-12-16, AKSYS GAMES, $59.99 MSRP, 19 DAYS OF NPD TRACKING) (LIMITED RELEASE - NOT AVAILABLE AT WALMART OR TARGET)

9) GUILTY GEAR XRD -SIGN- LIMITED EDITION (2014-12-16, AKSYS GAMES, $79.99 MSRP, 19 DAYS OF NPD TRACKING) (LIMITED RELEASE - NOT AVAILABLE AT WALMART OR TARGET)




MICROSOFT XBOX ONE:

Xuq866c.jpg
gKT3JPe.jpg


1) THE CREW (2014-12-02, UBISOFT, $59.99 MSRP, 33 DAYS OF NPD TRACKING) (FULL RELEASE)

2) THE CREW LIMITED EDITION (2014-12-02, UBISOFT, $59.99 MSRP, 33 DAYS OF NPD TRACKING) (FULL RELEASE)

3) TERRARIA SPECIAL EDITION (2014-12-02, 505 GAMES, $29.99 MSRP, 33 DAYS OF NPD TRACKING) (LIMITED RELEASE - NOT AVAILABLE AT TARGET)




NINTENDO WII U:

gW4R865.jpg
CYr93Na.jpg


1) CAPTAIN TOAD TREASURE TRACKER (2014-12-05, NINTENDO, $39.99 MSRP, 30 DAYS OF NPD TRACKING) (FULL RELEASE)

2) NES REMIX PACK (2014-12-05, NINTENDO, $29.99 MSRP, 30 DAYS OF NPD TRACKING) (FULL RELEASE)




MICROSOFT XBOX 360:

UG81PdY.jpg


1) THE CREW (2014-12-02, UBISOFT, $59.99 MSRP, 33 DAYS OF NPD TRACKING) (FULL RELEASE)

1) THE CREW LIMITED EDITION (2014-12-02, UBISOFT, $59.99 MSRP, 33 DAYS OF NPD TRACKING) (FULL RELEASE)




SONY PLAYSTATION 3:

PPitnv2.jpg
e8iX7cs.jpg
TTycGE4.jpg


1) KINGDOM HEARTS HD 2.5 REMIX (2014-12-02, SQUARE ENIX, $39.99 MSRP, 33 DAYS OF NPD TRACKING) (FULL RELEASE)

2) KINGDOM HEARTS HD 2.5 REMIX LIMITED EDITION (2014-12-02, SQUARE ENIX, $39.99 MSRP, 33 DAYS OF NPD TRACKING) (FULL RELEASE)

3) GUILTY GEAR XRD -SIGN- (2014-12-16, AKSYS GAMES, $49.99 MSRP, 19 DAYS OF NPD TRACKING) (LIMITED RELEASE - NOT AVAILABLE AT WALMART OR TARGET)

4) GUILTY GEAR XRD -SIGN- LIMITED EDITION (2014-12-16, AKSYS GAMES, $69.99 MSRP, 19 DAYS OF NPD TRACKING) (LIMITED RELEASE - NOT AVAILABLE AT WALMART OR TARGET)




NINTENDO 3DS:

ezSQpMc.jpg


1) ULTIMATE NES REMIX (2014-12-05, NINTENDO, $29.99 MSRP, 30 DAYS OF NPD TRACKING) (FULL RELEASE)




SONY PLAYSTATION VITA:

NO RETAIL RELEASES IN THE DECEMBER 2014 NPD REPORTING PERIOD (35 DAYS OF TRACKING, 2014-11-30 THROUGH 2015-01-03)




N.B. #2: KINGDOM HEARTS HD 2.5 REMIX COLLECTOR'S EDITION (2014-12-02, SQUARE ENIX, $99.99) isn't included as it probably won't be counted in the December 2014 NPD Report. This is because it was only available through a single, minor, online retailer (Square Enix's website).

N.B. #3: The accompanying pictures do not comprehensively represent every limited edition release.


Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

November's Results (estimates)
1. XB1 ~ 1.23m
2. PS4 ~ 826K
3. 3DS ~ 515K
4. 360 ~ 310K
5. WIU ~ 240K
6. PS3 ~ 89K

November 2013 NPD thread
December 2013 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive


Company Holiday PR:
Nintendo:
Nintendo said:
Fils-Aime said the Wii U business “is up and up strongly throughout this entire calendar year.” Software sales have almost doubled and hardware sales are up about 40 percent over last year.
Click to expand...
(Could be talking about through November as Wii U is up 35% in that period.)
 
last month was insane.

please guys...not so much craziness this time around...


[xb1] 1358k

[ps4] 1146k

[3ds] 675k

[wiu] 501k

[360] 371k

[ps3] 129k
 
[360] 445k
[3DS] 725k
[PS3] 125k
[PS4] 1005K
[WIU] 400k
[XB1] 1350K

I'm fairly certain that the Xbox ran away with it again in December. Ungrateful children, hen-pecked parents, and cheap Call of Duty boxes make for easy sales. I have a slight increase for Xbox in December as most consoles normally sell better in the 2nd holiday month based on past 360 trends. I'm also hesitant to put the PS4 above 1 Million because of the lack of the Black Friday bundle (I'd bet parents wouldn't care anyway). Nominal increases for everything else based on past trends.
 
[360] 100k
[3DS] 250k
[PS3] 70k
[PS4] 850k
[WIU] 220k
[XB1] 920k

Keeping that AC bundle around throughout the holiday was a smart move I think on MS's part. Seemed to sell well into December too. So I'll give the edge to the X1 again.
 
[XB1] 980k
[PS4] 950k
[WIU] 250k
 
That Nintendo PR is probably talking about NPD sales until November, so it probably shouldn't be in this prediction thread.
 
Welfare said:
That Nintendo PR is probably talking about NPD sales until November, so it probably shouldn't be in this prediction thread.
Click to expand...

It has a note about that possibility there, but left it in with the note to let individuals decide what it's talking about. Hopefully we'll get clearer PRs from all three before prediction cutoff, in any case.
 
XB1 looks like it's got this month also... at least on amazon.

PS4 has been steady gaining pace week on week. The gap doesn't seem like it will be as large as it was for november.

[XB1] 1159K
[PS4] 960K
[3DS] 640K
[WIU] 420K
[360] 348K
[PS3] 180K
 
The Shogun said:
All your getting from me this month. At least in terms of NPD / sales stuff.

Also my usual disclaimer. This statement was based on my own personal observations. Results may vary.

;-)
Click to expand...

after last month's craziness, i don't blame you.

it's really stressful, i agree.
 
Aquamarine said:
after last month's craziness, i don't blame you.

it's really stressful, i agree.
Click to expand...

CBOAT won't be here, so there shoudn't be something like that this time. Still, much better be cautious after the madness in NPD November thread. I will never forget it.
 
[360] 380k
[3DS] 800k
[PS3] 120k
[PS4] 1130k
[WIU] 550k
[XB1] 1650k

one of these months, an insane guess for the wii u has gotta pay off.

also it's five weeks and december. i think everyone's going to do a lot better than november.
 
Well, I've gotten enough information, so here are my predictions:
[PS4] 1250K
[XB1] 1350K
[WiiU] 450K
[3DS] 680K
[PS3] 120K
[360] 300K

After some careful consideration, I give a win to the XB1 but I'm confident the gap will be much smaller than in November
 
Front page fabulous reservato.

Edit:
[360] 327k
[3DS] 636k
[PS3] 89k
[PS4] 1031k
[WIU] 527k
[XB1] 1101k
 
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