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[thepotatoman]

Eh, the GOP will be fine, unfortunately. Geography, gerrymandering, and outright voter suppression guarantees that they will be able to hold at least the House. Those same forces also will help them hold their own if not dominate at the State level.

I wouldn't sleep on the GOP during Presidential elections, either. You would have thought after 1968 that the Republicans were guaranteed the Presidency for forever. People back then were making arguments for the Republicans similar to those people are making now regarding demographic changes. Still, Watergate brought Carter, at least for 4 years. With the Republican strength and extremism in congress, a Republican president for four years could do a lot of damage.

Don't get me wrong. I am not predicting the Democratic equivalent of Watergate. Shit happens that is outside of anyone's control though - like a foreign policy disaster, a foreign policy event that is spun like a disaster by a hostile media, or more likely an economic downturn. Combine that with huge money backing the GOP and the tendency of voters to want to make a change to the party controlling the White House when something bad happens, and I could see a Republican getting lucky.

The big challenge Democrats are going to need to battle is going forward voter apathy. Political participation has trended downward in the postwar period with a slight uptick in the 2006-2010 timeframe. Democrats generally lose when people who can don't come out to vote.

We'll see. Gerrymandering decays over time and they have to do pretty well in 2018 and 2020 to be able to recreate 2010's gerrymandering.

 

[Eric C]

Buy it.


https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2015/10/16/clinton-sanders-tied/5uI3lKwEfib4uifxrOlkPI/story.html

and this:



and finally this:

add another one

http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Dem-National-10.14.15.pdf

Voting preference:
Clinton: 47.8%
Sanders: 25.2%
Biden: 12.0%

African-American breakdown for the above:
Clinton: 69.0%
Sanders: 3.9%
Biden: 15.3%



Winner of the debate:
Clinton: 55.2%
Sanders: 31.7%

African-American breakdown for the above:
Clinton: 76.2%
Sanders: 11.9%

Age 18-29 breakdown for the above:
Clinton: 13.8%
Sanders: 81.9%

Well it appears the polls all seem to agree. A Majority of people thought Hillary won.

Voting preference:

African-American breakdown for the above:
Clinton: 69.0%
Sanders: 3.9%
Biden: 15.3%

But my God. I knew Sanders always struggled with the African American vote, but I didn't realize he struggled this bad.

His campaign has no hope with only 3.9% African American support. That's bad. Real bad. His campaign needs to figure out why he's not connecting with African Americans and change it ASAP if he wants any shot at winning the Democratic Primary.

 

[B-Dubs]

But my God. I knew Sanders always struggled with the African American vote, but I didn't realize he struggled this bad.

His campaign has no hope with only 3.9% African American support. That's bad. Real bad. His campaign needs to figure out why he's not connecting with African Americans and change it ASAP if he wants any shot at winning the Democratic Primary.

His major problem is he has to convince them to support him instead of Hillary and he can't do that unless he shows that he's more electable than she is. The problem there is he can't do that without real support from African-Americans.

Even if he could manage it, Hillary dropping would just lead to Joe Biden jumping in who will swoop in and grab their support instead of Bernie.

Bernie's basically stuck in a Catch-22 with no way out, unless he can really change the race's dynamic. Unfortunately the debate was his big chance and it didn't go his way.

 

[Third Strike]

We'll see. Gerrymandering decays over time and they have to do pretty well in 2018 and 2020 to be able to recreate 2010's gerrymandering.

The Supreme Court has also been forcing some states to redraw their maps, because they packed all of their minorities into one district. I also think one part of the VRA that was tossed out was that minority-majority districts will no longer be allowed. If there was one thing Republicans loved about the VRA, was that they could legally gerrymander on the basis of race (see NC District 12). That shit's not going to fly anymore.

 

[FStubbs]

His major problem is he has to convince them to support him instead of Hillary and he can't do that unless he shows that he's more electable than she is. The problem there is he can't do that without real support from African-Americans.

Bottom line.

A "Democratic socialist" is unelectable in 2016. African Americans have way more skin in the game and can't gamble on Sanders like many of his supporters can, given the hatred the other party has for them. They may like what he stands for but have to take a pragmatic approach to the election and can't afford to be too idealistic.

 

[B-Dubs]

Bottom line.

A "Democratic socialist" is unelectable in 2016. African Americans have way more skin in the game and can't gamble on Sanders like many of his supporters can, given the hatred the other party has for them. They may like what he stands for but have to take a pragmatic approach to the election and can't afford to be too idealistic.

It's also why they didn't go for Obama in big numbers until he starting winning states and Ted Kennedy endorsed him.

 

[Marauder Shields]

It's a bit unfortunate that Hilary has no real competition this time around for the democratic nomination. Would be nice to see her tested before the general.

 

[Butts-a-plenty]

It's a bit unfortunate that Hilary has no real competition this time around for the democratic nomination. Would be nice to see her tested before the general.

She has been tested. She went through the entire 2008 process...What else would you like to see?

 

[B-Dubs]

She has been tested. She went through the entire 2008 process...What else would you like to see?

Pretty much. Bernie's competitive enough with certain segments of the party to cover the time since then as well.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Tested for what? Hasn't she been a politician for, like, 50 years? Including a major presidential bid, a tenure as the secretary of state and a senator from New York.

 

[YoungHav]

The Clintons racism is what handed the black vote and Ted Kennedy's endorsement over to Obama.

 

[teiresias]

We'll see. Gerrymandering decays over time and they have to do pretty well in 2018 and 2020 to be able to recreate 2010's gerrymandering.

Not to mention that the current gerrymander that is handing them the House is also what is causing all of their internal problems and contributing to their inability to govern. They wanted people that couldn't be voted out, that's what they got, and now that those people have no chance to get voted out they're not listening to anything the establishment has to say and are making the Republicans look unable to govern. This will (perhaps) hurt them as the gerrymander loses its potency.

 

[Marauder Shields]

She has been tested. She went through the entire 2008 process...What else would you like to see?

I didn't mean it as a slight against her, maybe I should have worded it better.

I was just trying to say that it would be nice if the rest of the democratic nominees were a bit more formidable. I find Bernie to be a bit of a joke tbh. All the stuff he proposes has zero chance of ever coming to fruition.

 

[B-Dubs]

I didn't mean it as a slight against her, maybe I should have worded it better.

I was just trying to say that it would be nice if the rest of the democratic nominees were a bit more formidable. I find Bernie to be a bit of a joke tbh. All the stuff he proposes has zero chance of ever coming to fruition.

That's basically because of Hillary's strength as a candidate. There's like four or five more people who would be running if she wasn't as strong as she is.

 

[blackw0lf]

Realistically, no Democratic candidate is going to be able to get any bills they support passed as President because the Republicans will control congress.

True, but they can use executive power to push for policy changes. One of the weaknesses Sanders has, and I hope he addresses, is he hasn't talked about how he would use executive power to implement reforms. Clinton actually has. Her financial reform package, her campaign finance package, and gun control package all outline executive actions she says she'll take.

That Sanders hasn't come out with these yet makes me a bit weary, in that it's making me question how knowledgeable he is in ways to circumvent congress to get stuff done.

Then again I'm also wondering why Obama himself hasn't used the executive actions Clinton is saying.

 

[DOWN]

I finally remembered to finish watching the Democratic presidential debate and I think Hillary sounded the most electable from that group honestly. Sanders has a great attitude but he sounds really unrealistic. The "you're promising a golden goose" line from the SNL debate parody was pretty accurate. He gets into the high school class president rhetoric saying nice revolutionary things that don't sound like he actually knows management hurdles. I want to hear more specifics from Hillary and Sanders and forget the rest on that stage lol.


Two moments I enjoyed were Bernie chiming in on the emails and also Hilary's anti-response on the emails:

 

[CDX]

CNN's poll results

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/10/19/politics/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-poll/

More than 6-in-10 Democrats who watched say Clinton did the best job, almost doubling the 35% who thought Sanders had the best performance. On the other side of the coin, 43% of those who watched said Chafee had the worst night, 31% thought Webb did, 12% O'Malley.

...
Following the debate, Clinton continues to dominate as the more trusted candidate across several top issues, with double-digit advantages over Sanders and Biden as the candidate who would best handle the economy, health care, foreign policy, race relations, climate change and gun policy. Clinton also now holds a small edge over Sanders as most trusted on income inequality (43% Clinton, 38% Sanders).

Debate-watchers are more likely than others to say they trust Sanders on top issues, though even among this more-friendly audience, he continues to trail Clinton on most issues. Exceptions are income inequality (50% of debate-watchers trust Sanders vs. 36% for Clinton) and climate change (40% each say Clinton and Sanders would be best able to handle that).

Sanders gained no ground, however, on foreign policy. On that question, Clinton's strength grows among those who watched: 77% in that group say they trust her most to handle foreign policy, up from 66% among Democratic voters overall.

...

Income inequality appears to be the most divisive issue, with women, older voters, those without college degrees, moderates and those with lower incomes more apt to trust Clinton on the issue, while those with college degrees, liberals, and urbanites are more likely to favor Sanders.

And on gun policy, there's a sharp gender divide. Women are far more likely to say they trust Clinton to handle it than men, 50% to 37%. Democratic gun owners are more evenly split on the question, with 35% saying they trust Clinton most on gun policy, 27% Sanders and 21% Biden. Among those Democrats who do not own guns, it's 48% Clinton, 21% Biden and 16% Sanders.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/19/polit...n-bernie-sanders-democratic-debate/index.html

 

[Veritigo_X]

Chafee tied with no opinion at *%... ouch.

 

[phanphare]

Chafee tied with no opinion at *%... ouch.

he's a self-described "block of granite"

yeah

 

[giga]

Chafee tied with no opinion at *%... ouch.

Give him a break it was his first time man.

 

[phanphare]

CNN's poll results



http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/19/polit...n-bernie-sanders-democratic-debate/index.html

Bernie up 5 points after the debate, still trailing Hillary

Hillary's unfavorable rating among all americans and registered voters is interesting. 50% and 52%, respectively. also a lot of people still haven't heard of Bernie Sanders, although that number has shrunk significantly since July.

 

[Zach]

Chafee tied with no opinion at *%... ouch.

he's a self-described "block of granite"

yeah

Give him a break it was his first time man.

Hahaha...

 

[jmdajr]

Larry David on SNL. Pretty good!

 

[phanphare]

Larry David on SNL. Pretty good!

"I have an ample supply of underwear" - Bernie Sanders

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DugmB_CIVKU

 

[Maxim726X]

I was actually thinking about making a separate thread about this, as I'm genuinely curious about a possible plan, but how exactly would Bernie be able to pay for everything he wants to do?

I know that there was a NYTimes article that covered some of this to a certain extent, but would increasing the tax rate on top earners be able to pay for what he wishes to institute? And what of the ever-increasing debt? Even though the deficit has been cut considerably since Obama took office, it has not stopped the debt growth... How/when/if is this country going to address the debt?

 

[ErasureAcer]

That CNN debate poll from what I heard was if you watched some or all of the debate. That's like saying the Mets are up 4-0 after the first inning and you assume they won when in fact they lost 12-5. They probably included people who just watched the "Hillary won the debate" segment as well on the national news the next day. How many other candidates did they see? None. NBC for instance said Hillary won and showed a clip or two(watched some of the debate) and then they went into an interview with Donald Trump(other candidates weren't even talked about). Of course Hillary won. She was the only candidate there.

 

[Veritigo_X]

Bernie up 5 points after the debate, still trailing Hillary

Hillary's unfavorable rating among all americans and registered voters is interesting. 50% and 52%, respectively. also a lot of people still haven't heard of Bernie Sanders, although that number has shrunk significantly since July.

Both Sanders and Clinton are eating up Biden's numbers, which should be expected as the primary goes on without him entering the race.

There are still persistent rumors that he will enter the race this week (I feel like I hear this all the time...) so it'll be interesting to see if anything happens there and how it'll affect everyone's poll numbers if does.

That CNN debate poll from what I heard was if you watched some or all of the debate. That's like saying the Mets are up 4-0 after the first inning and you assume they won when in fact they lost 12-5. They probably included people who just watched the "Hillary won the debate" segment as well on the national news the next day. How many other candidates did they see? None. NBC for instance said Hillary won and showed a clip or two(watched some of the debate) and then they went into an interview with Donald Trump(other candidates weren't even talked about). Of course Hillary won. She was the only candidate there.

smh. It's always something, isn't it?

 

[teiresias]

That CNN debate poll from what I heard was if you watched some or all of the debate. That's like saying the Mets are up 4-0 after the first inning and you assume they won when in fact they lost 12-5. They probably included people who just watched the "Hillary won the debate" segment as well on the national news the next day. How many other candidates did they see? None. NBC for instance said Hillary won and showed a clip or two(watched some of the debate) and then they went into an interview with Donald Trump(other candidates weren't even talked about). Of course Hillary won. She was the only candidate there.

Their pre-question category was "Watched all or most of the debate" and my presumption for the other questions that were for people that "watched the debate" is pulling from people who answered for that "all or most category".

Of course, you're making a presumption that people would watch the start and not the end rather than vice versa.

I know it's tough facing the reality of what real polls are saying in relation to your favored messiah, but come the hell on.

Monmouth post-debate poll:
http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32...1087/4f03d197-5cae-42a6-b47a-0c1a4aeb7b6f.pdf

Clinton: 48%
Sanders: 21%
Biden: 17%
Webb/Lessig: 1%
O'Malley/Chafee: *

Hillary Clinton currently has the support of 48% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters
nationwide, which is up from 42% last month. Bernie Sanders gets 21%, which is basically unchanged
from his 20% support in September. Undeclared candidate Joe Biden has 17% support, down from 22%
last month. Jim Webb and Larry Lessig each get 1%, while Martin O’Malley and Lincoln Chafee each
earn less than 1%.

Hillary rising, Sanders stagnant.

And if you take Biden out of the equation:

Clinton: 57%
Sanders: 24%

 

[pigeon]

That CNN debate poll from what I heard was if you watched some or all of the debate. That's like saying the Mets are up 4-0 after the first inning and you assume they won when in fact they lost 12-5. They probably included people who just watched the "Hillary won the debate" segment as well on the national news the next day. How many other candidates did they see? None. NBC for instance said Hillary won and showed a clip or two(watched some of the debate) and then they went into an interview with Donald Trump(other candidates weren't even talked about). Of course Hillary won. She was the only candidate there.

It explicitly doesn't include people who only watched news stories about the debate. That's in the image that was posted in this thread. Come on, man.

 

[phanphare]

I was actually thinking about making a separate thread about this, as I'm genuinely curious about a possible plan, but how exactly would Bernie be able to pay for everything he wants to do?

I know that there was a NYTimes article that covered some of this to a certain extent, but would increasing the tax rate on top earners be able to pay for what he wishes to institute? And what of the ever-increasing debt? Even though the deficit has been cut considerably since Obama took office, it has not stopped the debt growth... How/when/if is this country going to address the debt?

I think most of the money comes from moving to single-payer healthcare

 

[ErasureAcer]

I know it's tough facing the reality of what real polls are saying in relation to your favored messiah, but come the hell on.

Not tough at all. Bernie is picking up support. Up 5 points from the last CNN poll. Another poll shows him back in command in NH where Clinton had pulled even. Hillary "Cut it out" Clinton quite simply didn't win the debate, GAF agrees. Don't go against GAF.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

I didn't mean it as a slight against her, maybe I should have worded it better.

I was just trying to say that it would be nice if the rest of the democratic nominees were a bit more formidable. I find Bernie to be a bit of a joke tbh. All the stuff he proposes has zero chance of ever coming to fruition.

I struggle with these types of posts. It's like people don't want to see that a lot of DNC's candidate policies are not in line with, and would have a hard time passing, our current congress. A lot of Clinton's or O'Malley's more "pragmatic" approach have just a good a chance as Sanders' in passing through this congress. One of my friends said she thought Clinton would have a better chance of passing her policies because "she has friends on the republican side" and I literally loled. I'm not taking sides here but, as someone who is following politics for the first time, I find your reasoning for saying Sanders is a joke compared to other DNC candidates poor IMO.

Because if that's the reason, then one could say that all DNC candidates are a bit of a joke and the GOP ones aren't, because they have the best chance of enacting and getting their policies through congress.

 

[andthebeatgoeson]

Hillary rising, Sanders stagnant.

And if you take Biden out of the equation:

Clinton: 57%
Sanders: 24%

Maybe Bernie should endorse some establishment candidates so he can have a better chance.

 

[Spider from Mars]

That CNN debate poll from what I heard was if you watched some or all of the debate. That's like saying the Mets are up 4-0 after the first inning and you assume they won when in fact they lost 12-5. They probably included people who just watched the "Hillary won the debate" segment as well on the national news the next day. How many other candidates did they see? None. NBC for instance said Hillary won and showed a clip or two(watched some of the debate) and then they went into an interview with Donald Trump(other candidates weren't even talked about). Of course Hillary won. She was the only candidate there.

Pure, unadulterated, delusion.

 

[Monocle]

I wanted to participate in the poll, but I didn't see an option for my husbando Anderson Cooper.

Spoiler

The true answer is Hillary, but that's boring.

Whip smart and looked sharp af in his suit and glasses. Mmmh.

Would've loved to see the GOP candidates try to cope with the spankings he was dishing out as soon as the debate started.

 

[giga]

Not tough at all. Bernie is picking up support. Up 5 points from the last CNN poll. Another poll shows him back in command in NH where Clinton had pulled even. Hillary "Cut it out" Clinton quite simply didn't win the debate, GAF agrees. Don't go against GAF.

Keep fucking that chicken.

 

[Neuromancer]

Bernie Sanders playing the bongos

 

[Veritigo_X]

Bernie Sanders playing the bongos

Haha, this is great.

 

[Indicate]

Bernie Sanders playing the bongos

lol