What about the general election?I'm still voting for Bernie, but those poll numbers don't surprise me. This was always gonna be an uphill climb. I was never expecting an 08 Obama situation.
I would assume CNN removed the dumb Facebook poll/stopped reporting on it so as not to look dumb by highlighting the dumb Facebook poll as if it meant anything substantial given it doesn't. Particularly given they and their real polling partner ORC have a pretty good reputation.
That their various pundits opined that Clinton won or not is really neither here nor there. It's just pundit opinions.
I just finished watching the debate and it was pretty clear by the end that Sanders won, but O'malley did much better than expected and Clinton did good too.
This is what I assumed as well, but apparently it just makes too much sense.
If it's so clear why do Democratic voters disagree? Are you calling them ignorant?
I saw a meme on Facebook that said Hillary Clinton personally called her crony-servants at CNN and requested that they remove the post-debate poll while cackling and stroking a cat for good measure. Anyone else heard about this?
Then why the hell did they ever put up a poll? I don't care about what the poll "means" but I don't get the logic behind this or why this rationale doesn't sort of prove the point opposite the one you're trying to make.
Are you calling Frog-fu ignorant?
If it's so clear why do Democratic voters disagree? Are you calling them ignorant?
I'm not calling anyone ignorant.
That the frontfronner is still the frontrunner doesn't mean she won, and going by the reaction online I don't think she did.
In respect of winning the debate, Bernie fumbled a bit in the first 30-45 minutes, particularly on the topic of guns, but he was otherwise earnest, honest and made strong points. He is the only politician - the way I see it anyway - that is speaking to and aiming to tackle the real problem, i.e. "Congress does not regulate Wall Street. Wall Street regulates Congress." His electability may be in question, but he is making bigger gains as time goes by and I'm hoping that pulls Clinton more to his side on the left.
Hillary had her moments but otherwise stayed the course and gave a politician's answer too often to my liking. She didn't nearly come across as genuine and had worse stumbles.
O'Malley really surprised me and was the most consistent of the bunch. He didn't give a single bad answer and a had strong moments. His closing was especially strong and probably resonated with a lot of people.
There's polls out that specifically ask who do you think won and Clinton is the runaway favorite. Even in NH where she actually gets less voters but more people saying she won.
I don't buy that for a second.
Buy it.I don't buy that for a second.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2015/10/16/clinton-sanders-tied/5uI3lKwEfib4uifxrOlkPI/story.htmlFifty-four percent of poll respondents said they thought Clinton won the debate to 24 percent for Sanders. Another 16 percent were undecided.
Fifty-two percent of poll respondents said Clinton has the best chance of winning the general election. Just 16 percent said Sanders’ had the best chance.
Buy it.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2015/10/16/clinton-sanders-tied/5uI3lKwEfib4uifxrOlkPI/story.html
and this:
and finally this:
I think its really unfortunate how easily people can be deceived. As long as the pundits repeat a narrative, people can be swayed any way the media wants them to be swayed. That's a real issue in a supposed democracy.
And its even worse when its people who don't pay attention.
I think you have to be really naive to think that Time Warner who already has donated over half a million to Hillary's campaign has no dog in the fight they want to see installed.
Just promise not to go with "I guess the public fell for the media narrative" if it doesn't go bernies way ok
The debate actually lowered my opinion of Hillary pretty substantially I think. Honestly to win over someone like me even more she had one job: don't sound like a ducking weather vane. What did she do? Sounded like a weather vane.
Don't get me wrong, I'm fully prepared to vote for her versus any of the clown republicans, but I'm still disappointed.
Buy it.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2015/10/16/clinton-sanders-tied/5uI3lKwEfib4uifxrOlkPI/story.html
and this:
and finally this:
Incidentally she also didn't beat Chafe and Webb. Pretty sure those two beat themselves up.
^^ Lessig didn't have enough support in the polls to qualify for the debate.
IDK that seems off to me. Or am I reading this wrong?15. Did you happen to watch the debate among the Democratic candidates for president that was held on Tuesday night, or not? 10.13-15.15
I watched the debate live 24
I did not watch the debate live, but followed coverage of it in the news 36
I did not watch the debate and havent really followed news coverage about it 38
No answer 2
(from their survey methodology page)
Interesting thing about the NBC Poll... apparently only 24 percent of the people in it actually watch the debate.
IDK that seems off to me. Or am I reading this wrong?
No, I think that's probably accurate. But why does it seem off to you? The primary impact of the debate isn't necessarily directly on people who watch it -- it's also on people who discuss it with others who did watch it, or people who read about it in the newspapers, or watch cable news talking about it.
I think it would be better for people to come to that conclusion for themselves then based on what other people are telling them. If they think Hilary won because that what was posted on their website they saw the next morning, that doesn't really tell us who won the debate, just that people can parrot the answer of others. There are probably plenty of people who have talked about it in length with friends who did watch it, but the poll doesn't ask anything like that. And that's not even getting into the number of people who pick someone despite apparently knowing almost nothing about the debate at all.
This also explains the focus groups in favor of Sanders. While i don't believe major media has as a bias in favor of Clinton the pundits might have a different set of priorities compared to the average american. Their opinions color the perception of people that didn't watch the debate who then go on to talk about who won what.Interesting. We have our second debate poll, from GCS / IJreview. They have it as a Sanders victory, by 43.7% to Clinton's 28.7% (4% MoE) [tabs]. But this poll doesn't contradict the YouGOV one - they actually had an important difference. The YouGOV poll asked people who won the Democratic debate if they a) watched the debate in full, b) watched clips or highlights of the debate, or c) read or watched analysis of the debate. People who watched the debate in full were only just over a quarter of the sample. Meanwhile, GCS only polled those who reported watching the debate in full, and discounted those who only saw highlight clips or analysis. In other words, people who only saw clips or read analysis of the debate were *much* more likely to think Clinton won, whereas those who watched the debate in full thought Sanders won - this also explains at least some of the racial disparity, as black Americans reported themselves much more as being in groups b) or c) than they did a) [which as an aside is pretty sad, because it hints at how poorly America engages with its black community].
It also shows you just how much influence pundits have! You write the headlines, you write people's perceptions.
Interesting. We have our second debate poll, from GCS / IJreview. They have it as a Sanders victory, by 43.7% to Clinton's 28.7% (4% MoE) [tabs]. But this poll doesn't contradict the YouGOV one - they actually had an important difference. The YouGOV poll asked people who won the Democratic debate if they a) watched the debate in full, b) watched clips or highlights of the debate, or c) read or watched analysis of the debate. People who watched the debate in full were only just over a quarter of the sample. Meanwhile, GCS only polled those who reported watching the debate in full, and discounted those who only saw highlight clips or analysis. In other words, people who only saw clips or read analysis of the debate were *much* more likely to think Clinton won, whereas those who watched the debate in full thought Sanders won - this also explains at least some of the racial disparity, as black Americans reported themselves much more as being in groups b) or c) than they did a) [which as an aside is pretty sad, because it hints at how poorly America engages with its black community].
It also shows you just how much influence pundits have! You write the headlines, you write people's perceptions.
It's technically the fourth or fifth post-debate poll, although the Suffolk poll was just for NH.
The sample seems disproportionately male? Although I suppose a disproportionate number of men may have been watching the debate.
Lol @ thinking voters are not ignorant. That's the reason why democracy doesn't work.If it's so clear why do Democratic voters disagree? Are you calling them ignorant?
Where did she sound like a weather vane? Please give examples
Here's the transcript if you need help remembering something specific http://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-first-democratic-debate-full-rush-transcript/
You know, I -- I respect the passion an intensity. I represented Wall Street, as a senator from New York, and I went to Wall Street in December of 2007 -- before the big crash that we had -- and I basically said, "cut it out! Quit foreclosing on homes! Quit engaging in these kinds of speculative behaviors."
COOPER: Secretary Clinton, how would you not be a third term of President Obama?
CLINTON: Well, I think thats pretty obvious. I think being the first woman president would be quite a change from the presidents weve had up until this point, including President Obama.
COOPER: Is there a policy difference?
I know the big issue at hand is who won the debates according to polls, etc, but I have another question to ask:
Can anyone elaborate for me the response to this debate and how(or if) the public is reacting to it differently? Because in my circles(and I typically have rather liberal friends, being one myself), the Republican debates came off as a bit of a circus, memes, and all, whereas the Democrat debate seems to be regarded as more substantial and somehow reaffirming.
So I guess my other question is: did any of the debates thus far help their respective sides on the presidential(not primary) elections next year?
Clinton's answer on Wall Street
.
CLINTON: Well, my plan is more comprehensive. And frankly, it's tougher because of course we have to deal with the problem that the banks are still too big to fail. We can never let the American taxpayer and middle class families ever have to bail out the kind of speculative behavior that we saw.
But we also have to worry about some of the other players -- AIG, a big insurance company; Lehman Brothers, an investment bank. There's this whole area called "shadow banking." That's where the experts tell me the next potential problem could come from.
CLINTON: So I'm with both Senator Sanders and Governor O'Malley in putting a lot of attention onto the banks. And the plan that I have put forward would actually empower regulators to break up big banks if we thought they posed a risk. But I want to make sure we're going to cover everybody, not what caused the problem last time, but what could cause it next time.,..
You know, I -- I respect the passion an intensity. I represented Wall Street, as a senator from New York, and I went to Wall Street in December of 2007 -- before the big crash that we had -- and I basically said, "cut it out! Quit foreclosing on homes! Quit engaging in these kinds of speculative behaviors."
I took on the Bush administration for the same thing. So I have thought deeply and long about what we're going to do to do exactly what I think both the senator and the governor want, which is to rein in and stop this risk.
And my plan would have the potential of actually sending the executives to jail. Nobody went to jail after $100 billion in fines were paid...
So I guess my other question is: did any of the debates thus far help their respective sides on the presidential(not primary) elections next year?
Statisticians have studied whether debates really affect voters - i.e. whether they ultimately sway people - but results show that debates rarely matter in the end. They are not the "game changers" political pundits like to believe. They're fun to watch and argue about though.
Statisticians have studied whether debates really affect voters - i.e. whether they ultimately sway people - but results show that debates rarely matter in the end. They are not the "game changers" political pundits like to believe. They're fun to watch and argue about though.
Rick Perry wishes that were true
General debates don't. Primary debates certainly do though
Lol @ thinking voters are not ignorant. That's the reason why democracy doesn't work.
Buy it.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2015/10/16/clinton-sanders-tied/5uI3lKwEfib4uifxrOlkPI/story.html
and this:
and finally this:
Democracy is more than only voting, it has also to do with research, activism and participation in society. The reason Clinton is more 'electable' than Sanders is precisely because people are ignorant and don't know what democracy really means.That's right, democracy never works. It's a futile exercise where the dummies control everything./s Do you even hear yourself? Democracy doesn't always work, but it does sometimes. And if it doesn't, we can vote a bad candidate out. That's the point.
Democracy is more than only voting, it has also to do with research, activism and participation in society. The reason Clinton is more 'electable' than Sanders is precisely because people are ignorant and don't know what democracy really means.
add another one
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Dem-National-10.14.15.pdf
Voting preference:
Clinton: 47.8%
Sanders: 25.2%
Biden: 12.0%
African-American breakdown for the above:
Clinton: 69.0%
Sanders: 3.9%
Biden: 15.3%
Winner of the debate:
Clinton: 55.2%
Sanders: 31.7%
African-American breakdown for the above:
Clinton: 76.2%
Sanders: 11.9%
Age 18-29 breakdown for the above:
Clinton: 13.8%%
Sanders: 81.9%
The age breakdown is interesting. People in the 18-29 demographic face dramatically different economic circumstances than those in older cohorts. They also came of age in a drastically different media and cultural environment than those older than them. Whether Sanders wins or loses the primary, I will continue to maintain that those numbers are important for the future direction of this country and the Democratic party.
add another one
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Dem-National-10.14.15.pdf
Voting preference:
Clinton: 47.8%
Sanders: 25.2%
Biden: 12.0%
African-American breakdown for the above:
Clinton: 69.0%
Sanders: 3.9%
Biden: 15.3%
Winner of the debate:
Clinton: 55.2%
Sanders: 31.7%
African-American breakdown for the above:
Clinton: 76.2%
Sanders: 11.9%
Age 18-29 breakdown for the above:
Clinton: 13.8%
Sanders: 81.9%