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[jellies_two]

well - if a bomb didn't destroy the plane in-flight, a fire only has to destroy control. If it knocked out the autopilot at that altitude control of the plane becomes very difficult.
If there was smoke in the cockpit (cockpit window slid open was the first alert) it would be easy for the pilots to enter a spin.

That said, the video and description by someone on a ship, of a plane trailing or in flames, obviously makes it not just smoking and shorting electrical, but something worse.

 

[Daft Punk]

Terrible. A person in a Destiny group on FB I'm in said his grandmother was on the flight. My condolences.

 

[Marky Mark]

well - if a bomb didn't destroy the plane in-flight, a fire only has to destroy control. If it knocked out the autopilot at that altitude control of the plane becomes very difficult.
If there was smoke in the cockpit (cockpit window slid open was the first alert) it would be easy for the pilots to enter a spin.

That said, the video and description by someone on a ship, of a plane trailing or in flames, obviously makes it not just smoking and shorting electrical, but something worse.

What video and what's the source?

 

[toxicgonzo]

That just makes lack of communications all the more baffling. Pilots are taught to fly the plane first, but no mayday call just seems odd.

Are there communications dead zones over the Mediterranean?

Pilots are to aviate, navigate, and communicate. In that order.

Communicate is last so maybe they were too overwhelmed to get off a mayday call

 

[Souldestroyer Reborn]

A fire on its own doesn't make sense though.

There are back up systems for each system, all stored separately from each other in their own fire retardant areas. Even if there was a fire in one of the areas, it would take more than 3mins for the fire to spread, plus the other systems would come into play.

That then leads to the conclusion that there could have been fires in multiple areas? Which, is highly unlikely without any outside interference given that the fires would both need to be in the areas where avionics equipment is placed.

 

[DiscoJer]

This has depressed me since news broke on it. I cannot fathom being there in the moment knowing you have no control over what is happening and that you and people sitting around you are about to die . Hopefully the victims did not suffer. This is all I can hope for.

The second to last time I flew one of the engines blew up and shredded a good portion of the wing. While we made a successful landing, I still get nightmares about that.

I was pretty much the only one overlooking the wing, so I think I was the only passenger (and I guess the people in front and behind) knew how bad the wing was damaged.

 

[jellies_two]

What video and what's the source?

There was a video supposedly from a ship of a high up burning light moving horizontally, sorry I have no idea if it was discredited it was early on.

I saw it in a news story embedded.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_oI7vj4hPZg

 

[Alx]

There was a video supposedly from a ship of a high up burning light moving horizontally, sorry I have no idea if it was discredited it was early on.

I saw it in a news story embedded.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=_oI7vj4hPZg

It was fake. https://translate.google.fr/transla...0.html?xtmc=canular&xtcr=1&edit-text=&act=url
Always assume that anything on the internet is fake unless it's from official source, it's become common that in such tragedies, some people think they're clever and try to spread false information.

 

[jellies_two]

Not surprised.
But from the icon it was displayed on 7 national news, unless that was faked too?
if it was joes YouTube clip, not a news report, I wouldn't have mentioned it of course.

 

[Henkka]

Regarding why no group has taken credit for this yet... It could still be an ISIS-inspired attack without being actually coordinated by ISIS. If it was done by a lone wolf cell, why would they announce themselves to the world? If they've got the methods and opportunity to pull off more attacks like this, it would be smarter to lay low. Say, if they have someone employed at the airport.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Regarding why no group has taken credit for this yet... It could still be an ISIS-inspired attack without being actually coordinated by ISIS. If it was done by a lone wolf cell, why would they announce themselves to the world? If they've got the methods and opportunity to pull off more attacks like this, it would be smarter to lay low. Say, if they have someone employed at the airport.

What the hell is the point of terrorism if no one knows you did it?

 

[Blizzard]

What the hell is the point of terrorism if no one knows you did it?

This is the thing that makes me wonder if it WASN'T terrorism. Unless more attacks happen in the near future, people will largely forget about this. Unless someone claims responsibility, governments could say it was a freak accident etc.

 

[valeo]

What the hell is the point of terrorism if no one knows you did it?

Yeah, terrorists frequently claim responsibility for attacks they have nothing to do with. Terrorism is all about marketing.

 

[Henkka]

What the hell is the point of terrorism if no one knows you did it?

To do more attacks until the jig is up, and then announce it, I guess? Just an idea, a little farfetched, sure

 

[hydragonwarrior]

This is the thing that makes me wonder if it WASN'T terrorism. Unless more attacks happen in the near future, people will largely forget about this. Unless someone claims responsibility, governments could say it was a freak accident etc.

I believe the missing Malaysian flight from a few years ago is a good example of how it's not always terrorism.

 

[DiipuSurotu]

Trump going to look real dumb if it's eventually confirmed it wasn't an attack.

He already does and he doesn't care. In fact that's pretty much how he gets other dumbasses to support him.

 

[s_mirage]

A fire on its own doesn't make sense though.

There are back up systems for each system, all stored separately from each other in their own fire retardant areas. Even if there was a fire in one of the areas, it would take more than 3mins for the fire to spread, plus the other systems would come into play.

That then leads to the conclusion that there could have been fires in multiple areas? Which, is highly unlikely without any outside interference given that the fires would both need to be in the areas where avionics equipment is placed.

The systems may be separate but how about the cables that lead to/from them? Do they pass through any common areas? Could the initial ACARS messages have been caused by the wiring being compromised over time, which also led to eventual loss of control?

 

[Marky Mark]

Not surprised.
But from the icon it was displayed on 7 national news, unless that was faked too?
if it was joes YouTube clip, not a news report, I wouldn't have mentioned it of course.

7 National News in Australia? If so then it basically is Joe's YouTube channel.

 

[SolidusDave]

What the hell is the point of terrorism if no one knows you did it?

Yeah, that STILL no one has announced responsibility makes no sense if it was terrorism. At the start of thread it was pretty clear to me, but now I changed my mind.
Freak-accident or pilot-suicide (but maybe he started a fire to avoid getting denounced as such), maybe?

There's also the possibility a mentally deranged person did it all alone while he/she was on the plane, thus no one left to announce anything. You might find a suicide note if you check each passenger's home?
Still, wouldn't e.g. ISIS PR take the "glory" by now even if they didn't do it? Or would they actually have the sense to wait for the confirmation that it wasn't an accident?

 

[spekkeh]

As said there are a number of ISIS ascribed bombings that were never officially claimed by the group. Either because it isn't really necessary (the turmoil is there and there's no need to draw attention to your location), or, more often, because ISIS is the new Al-Qaeda in that it operates as a banner of international islamic terrorism for separate cells. So the main command may not even know it was them for certain. It could be that this cell started the fire on board when they were as far away from land as possible and went down with the plane.

That said, most of these unclaimed bombings were visible bombings and I don't think it makes sense to make a plane disappear without telling people about it. Where I was certain it was a terrorist strike based on the earlier evidence, the ostensible six minutes between the smoke alarm and the breaking up of the airplane without any communication does have me puzzled.

 

[jellies_two]

What earlier evidence?
That it was Egypt air and the only info was it vanished at cruise flight level in good weather?
That isn't any evidence at all really, that's just guessing based on probabilities. Now there are little bits of evidence: no explosion seen by satellite, automated system failures, no responsibility claims, etc.

Planes do still fall out of the sky unexpectedly and without the pilot issuing a distress call and if anything the last 10 years has seen this happen more than one might previously have guessed. In particular, when at cruise there is a very small envelope of control, things can escalate quickly and training has been deficient perhaps too trusting of the computers.

 

[NateDog]

This has depressed me since news broke on it. I cannot fathom being there in the moment knowing you have no control over what is happening and that you and people sitting around you are about to die . Hopefully the victims did not suffer. This is all I can hope for.

Then switch to the news and Trump runs his mouth. That bit makes me angry.

No-one should care about Trump. This has nothing to do with him or his desire for more attention. Tons of people have lost their lives from this and tons of others have been affected by losing loved ones.

 

[darkinstinct]

At this point an explosion is highly unlikely. A fire and invisible toxic fumes taking the cockpit crew out is most likely.

 

[jufonuk]

At this point an explosion is highly unlikely. A fire and invisible toxic fumes taking the cockpit crew out is most likely.

If that is the case. A fault with aircraft maintainence like in AirAsia or and actual manufacturing fault with the aircraft ? The last one is scary as that model plane is the most common right?

 

[KingSnake]

Ugh, it seems that a fire at board in the front part of the plane (the lavatory can also be the front one) is what generated the whole final succession of events. Which would explain also the trajectory of the plane and also the lack of communication and losing suddenly the tracking.

A fire on board is for me the most damning thing that can happen for a flight.

 

[spekkeh]

What earlier evidence?
That it was Egypt air and the only info was it vanished at cruise flight level in good weather?
That isn't any evidence at all really, that's just guessing based on probabilities.

That last one is a pretty big telltale though. In contrast to what you said planes don't fall vertically out of the sky in clear weather. They glide. There's a possibility of an irrecoverable stall due to system failure, but that doesn't make the transponder stop working. Then there was the eye witness seeing a flame in the sky at the right location and the US corroborating (and later retracting).

 

[KingSnake]

That last one is a pretty big telltale though. In contrast to what you said planes don't fall vertically out of the sky in clear weather. They glide. There's a possibility of an irrecoverable stall due to system failure, but that doesn't make the transponder stop working. Then there was the eye witness seeing a flame in the sky at the right location and the US corroborating (and later retracting).

Fire in the avionics bay and cockpit could disable the transponder. The fall from the sky could be a desperate attempt from the pilot to get the plane down fast to try an emergency landing or something. Fire would explain the flame.

 

[fierrotlepou]

This is so sad. Looking more and more like a mechanical failure though. I hope they get answers and are able to prevent more events like this one in the future.

 

[spekkeh]

Fire in the avionics bay and cockpit could disable the transponder. The fall from the sky could be a desperate attempt from the pilot to get the plane down fast to try an emergency landing or something. Fire would explain the flame.

This seems to me the most likely candidate too now. If there was a fire burning through some wiring they might even have turned off all the circuits manually to see if they could isolate a faulty one.
But it's a bit of a freak coincidence that it happened right over the middle of the sea. And I'd still figure you'd communicate to flight control before doing such a thing, but who knows.

 

[spekkeh]

Was the fire alarm in the front or back lavatory?

 

[danowat]

It's not a new plane, neither is it particularly old, the airframe is 12 years old, with (i think I read correctly) 48k hours on it.

I wouldn't say this is an unusually old or tired plane I would imagine many carriers have airframes of similar age.

No idea of the maintainance schedule of EgyptAir.

I would be suprised if it was pure mechanical failure with no other mitigating circumstances though.

Edit, news is the CVR/FDR has been recovered

 

[KingSnake]

It's not a new plane, neither is it particularly old, the airframe is 12 years old, with (i think I read correctly) 48k hours on it.

I wouldn't say this is an unusually old or tired plane I would imagine many carriers have airframes of similar age.

No idea of the maintainance schedule of EgyptAir.

I would be suprised if it was pure mechanical failure with no other mitigating circumstances though.

Edit, news is the CVR/FDR has been recovered

Yeah, I think in most cases of a catastrophic fire at board there was some external factors involved. At least in recent times.

 

[CTLance]

The black boxes have been found? That's good news, considering.

The only thing about a fire/backdraft/smouldering cargo releasing noxious fumes/etc theory that bothers me is the sheer amount of measures taken against that very scenario in any even halfway modern plane. Normally, the measures should alert the crew early enough and slow down whatever threat for long enough to complete a hasty, but comparatively safe landing and evacuation.

 

[spekkeh]

It's not a new plane, neither is it particularly old, the airframe is 12 years old, with (i think I read correctly) 48k hours on it.

I wouldn't say this is an unusually old or tired plane I would imagine many carriers have airframes of similar age.

No idea of the maintainance schedule of EgyptAir.

I would be suprised if it was pure mechanical failure with no other mitigating circumstances though.

Edit, news is the CVR/FDR has been recovered

Oh that's quick, good news. Here's hoping they can shed light.

Was the fire alarm in the front or back lavatory?

I was asking because, maybe it actually was an IED, mixed together on board and the smoke alarm went off as the perp tried to ignite the fuse. Just a lighter wouldn't cause any alarm. A small explosion would, but if it was in the back the pilots may not be able to see what caused the sound and bank to the left. A small explosion wouldn't bring down the plane (or show up on a satellite I don't think), but if shrapnel hit the stabilizer, it would, and also explain the apparent spin.

Edit: was in the front. So the crew would have noticed it. On the other hand a firebomb may reach the avionics quicker.

 

[Chittagong]

Great news about the black box, although I struggle to grasp how they could have found and recovered them this quickly, I thought the sea is like 2km deep there and they don't float.

 

[Marky Mark]

From a Google search of Egypt air:

EgyptAir crash: Flight data seems to 'point towards a bomb' as first images of debris are released
Telegraph.co.uk - 36 mins ago

Then clicking on that link the first snippet is:

Egyptian government denies black box located

A source at the Civil Aviation ministry is now denying reports that the black boxes have been found. They tell the Egyptian newspaper Al-Masry Al-Youm that if the black boxes had been found they would notify the public "immediately".

The chaotic and contradicting claims out of Egypt continue.

I feel like just checking up on the latest news about this once a week to let the dust settle.

 

[DrROBschiz]

Great news about the black box, although I struggle to grasp how they could have found and recovered them this quickly, I thought the sea is like 2km deep there and they don't float.

They must have found the crash site very quickly.. then its just a matter of location the tail of the aircraft.

Considering the speed of when they found it... the plane might have crashed into the water intact... meaning flight control malfunction and not an inflight breakup from a bomb

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

From a Google search of Egypt air:



Then clicking on that link the first snippet is:



I feel like just checking up on the latest news about this once a week to let the dust settle.

That isn't really a surprise if the black boxes are 2.5-3.0km down. There is no way salvage could be organised/arrive so quick never mind perform the recovery.

 

[pinsomniac]

A NYT correspondent on ISIS just put out a concerning series of tweets about a possible announcement: https://twitter.com/rcallimachi/status/734001991567966208

 

[Javaman]

At this point an explosion is highly unlikely. A fire and invisible toxic fumes taking the cockpit crew out is most likely.

The pilots do have a separate air system they can use to breathe but doesn't help much if the cockpit fills up with so much smoke that they can't see their consoles which is what I suspect happened.

 

[CTLance]

So apparently the black boxes have only been located, not retrieved yet. Meaning they probably received the pings and have a good idea on where to send the retrieval team.

Also, tag this as rumour, but these are allegedly pictures of what the remaining debris looks like.

There was definitely a great impact. Cripes.

In the same vein, I'll give you this: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QRZlfCIb8qE

(I'm on mobile, can't really meaningfully check for integrity, sorry)

 

[DrROBschiz]

until they get a look at the wreckage its hard to say whether it hit the water intact or if it was blown to pieces midair

 

[jellies_two]

In contrast to what you said planes don't fall vertically out of the sky in clear weather. They glide..

*if* they enter a stall at high altitude - for whatever reason - they don't glide and don't recover themselves either. Its a corkscrew straight down to the ground.

 

[danowat]

My error, I meant discovered, not recovered.

 

[DrROBschiz]

*if* they enter a stall at high altitude - for whatever reason - they don't glide and don't recover themselves either. Its a corkscrew straight down to the ground.

They ACARS seems to indicate loss of flight controls for the aircraft at high altitude and some very steep drops

Plane was out of control

 

[DXB-KNIGHT]

Man I just read a sad story of two of the passengers. I husband who sold everything to save his wife from cancer and treat her in France. She was treated and their neighborhood were waiting for them to celebrate their return. My heart is broken.
Source : Al Arabiya

 

[jufonuk]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNAUd4x5tX0

I have had a look on live ATC but not sure of the time.

it is confirmed LSZH Radar at 2130 utc mark on the 18th 2130-2200 segment of audio. And the relevant comment is at timecode 21.01

 

[Undead]

I know the FAA in the US made airlines take oxygen generators out of the lavatories but what about the Egyptian ones? would they be up to date with current rules?
Just thinking for why a fire could spread so quickly

 

[Ether_Snake]

EgyptAir flight MS804 did not swerve before crash, Cairo says

The head of Egypt’s state-run provider of air navigation services, Ehab Azmy, told the Associated Press on Monday that the plane did not swerve or lose altitude before it disappeared off radar.

Azmy said that a radar reading had shown the plane was flying at its normal altitude of 37,000 feet (11,270 metres) in the minutes before it disappeared.

“That fact degrades what the Greeks are saying about the aircraft suddenly losing altitude before it vanished from radar,” he added, challenging an account given days ago by the Greek defence minister.

“There was no turning to the right or left, and it was fine when it entered Egypt’s [flight information region], which took nearly a minute or two before it disappeared,” Azmy added.

[...]

Another senior Egyptian navigation services official, Ehab Mohieeldin, meanwhile told a broadcaster in his country on Monday that Egyptian officials had been able to track the plane on radar for one minute before it crashed but were unable to communicate with the crew.

 

[FStop7]

That last one is a pretty big telltale though. In contrast to what you said planes don't fall vertically out of the sky in clear weather. They glide.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ValuJet_Flight_592