Elon Musk believes Tesla's will be able to drive wholly autonomously within 2 years

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Calabi said:
Well I figured everyone else was way behind I heard projections of 5 and 10 years. Things like they hadn't been tested in all weathers and road surfaces etc. Or maybe this is just Musk being optimistic?
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Musk is just more bold than other people. That works too. And yes he's certainly being optimistic, but he's also the kind of person that will push this kind of optimism as a target.
 
Musk is a better PR man than anything else. He just says "I'll do X impossible thing in 2 years!" and gets fanboys hyped.
 
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The dream will be real...
 
Crab said:
Musk is a better PR man than anything else. He just says "I'll do X impossible thing in 2 years!" and gets fanboys hyped.
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But the reason he has fanboys and the reason they get hyped when he says stuff like this is because he has generally backed up his words. He's not just spouting off promises and guarantees that never come to fruition.

Even he admitted 2 years may be a bit ambitious, but the tech will almost certainly be there, it's just a matter of how quickly Tesla will be allowed to utilize it.
 
I'm most familiar with Google's work in this field, but they're operating on a different level of expectations than Musk. They're working with federal governments to get the path to full autonomous legalization in place, working with major car manufacturers to license out their systems, they're constantly refining and iterating on their sensor net - for example their lidar system went through multiple iterations to reduce cost and improve accuracy. They are trying to create a 3d mapped environment (ie Google maps 2.0) for roads to get as clear a picture as possible, they are fine tuning their systems to even understand hand gestures made by cyclists or traffic cops.

The scope is different.
 
This is going to shock the global economy when self driving vehicles destroy the transportation employment industry. The developed world should be preparing for this and they are completely ignoring what its going to do when tens of millions of jobs are lost to technological progress with no plan in place to help these people.
 
Hollywood Duo said:
He forget to mention in a parking lot only because no way that will get through all the appropriate legal channels that quickly and that's assuming the tech progresses at his anticipated level.



You realize that will not happen in our lifetime right? A lot of people like driving their cars.
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You really think everyone is going to have to manually drive their own car even 60 years from now?
 
I think he's totally right. I just don't expect government regulations to be amended to allow this to happen within 2 years.

It's going to be a long fucking time until anyone can use their car to auto-drive on a major highway
 
Pai Pai Master said:
I think he's totally right. I just don't expect government regulations to be amended to allow this to happen within 2 years.

It's going to be a long fucking time until anyone can use their car to auto-drive on a major highway
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I'm assuming you mean auto-drive as in unmanned, because manned auto-drive on major highways is already out there
 
Barzul said:
Model III might be my next car. Just need to read up on the recharging process and etc. I currently live in AR but I doubt I'll still be here in 2017 when that model roles around. Hopefully will live closer to supercharger stations by that time
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They are building a supercharge station in Little Rock this year I believe. There might be hope!
 
Sounds way too optimistic. Maybe the tech will be in place but I think ~5 years until it's actually approved and able to be used by the public. There also needs to be way more charging stations across the U.S.
 
I think at some point either the manufacturers or the government will have some kind of sensor, even if it's just a redundant square of metal, embedded along the roads to either assist the car technology or squelch the public worry.
 
reggieandTFE said:
The effect this will have on the economy will be intense. There are millions of drivers who will be out of work and there will also be millions of healthcare professionals not needed due to lower levels of accidents.

I'm not positive that the US will handle this transition well.
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It is positive that if one nation handles it poorly, it WILL be the United States. You can fucking hold me on my words.

We will be one of the last developed nations on this earth to handle this problem.
 
“I think within two years you’ll be able to summon your car from across the country,” Musk said, allowing that he might be a little optimistic about the time frame.
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How would it refill it's juice?
 
What happens if you summon a vehicle and it runs out of gas? Gonna have to get a robotic hand and credit card to fill it up automatically at the closest gas station too.
 
Good! I hope this becomes mainstream much sooner than later(within my lifetime). Cause most human drivers are idiots with toddler attention spans.
 
Foffy said:
It is positive that if one nation handles it poorly, it WILL be the United States. You can fucking hold me on my words.

We will be one of the last developed nations on this earth to handle this problem.
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Yeah, lobbyists will fight this tooth and nail with money and every dirty tactic in the book.
 
Maybe Elon was talking with regards to some sort of simplified system. I am only a laymen, but everything that has been communicated to us from the major drivers of this technology is that self driving on any road was at least a decade away. You not only have the technological hurdle to overcome, but also the legal frame work needs to be in place before such a system could be commercially available.
 
Bubba_Sparks said:
Maybe Elon was talking with regards to some sort of simplified system. I am only a laymen, but everything that has been communicated to us from the major drivers of this technology is that self driving on any road was at least a decade away. You not only have the technological hurdle to overcome, but also the legal frame work needs to be in place before such a system could be commercially available.
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Not nearly a decade away. Maybe 10 years for some meaningful penetration, but Musk's previously predicted tech will be there in 2 years, regulation will be another 2-5 years behind that.
 
Kibbles said:
What happens if you summon a vehicle and it runs out of gas? Gonna have to get a robotic hand and credit card to fill it up automatically at the closest gas station too.
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Teslas are electric vehicles and don't have to gas up. They would stop at Supercharging stations that have robotic arms which extend out to charge the vehicle autonomously. And Supercharging stations are free, so no credit card needed.
 
Sulik2 said:
This gif deeply unsettles me. Its like the uncanny valley for something real. Something mechanical shouldn't move like that.
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Me too. Way too smooth, looks way too much like a tentacle, way too obscene.

I'm sure it'll be big in Japan, though.

EDIT:

subrock said:
Not nearly a decade away. Maybe 10 years for some meaningful penetration, but Musk's previously predicted tech will be there in 2 years, regulation will be another 2-5 years behind that.
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Ok, I'm done. This thread broke me. Now I can only think about robot sex.
 
SpaceX just landed a rocket that went into space back down on the ground and is doing it again this month on a barge. I believe the man, even if he's overly optimistic about time frames.

Regardless, the tech will be there by the time regulations permit it.
 
Hasn't he generally been off the mark when it comes to timeframe predictions in the past?

Nivash said:
Me too. Way too smooth, looks way too much like a tentacle, way too obscene.

I'm sure it'll be big in Japan, though.

EDIT:



Ok, I'm done. This thread broke me. Now I can only think about robot sex.
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Lewd
 
Max Armstrong said:
What about winter?
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Infrastructure. They use radar now, why not a magnet? Signs? Beacons?

Sounds like we need more tech and the government needs to be a job creator. All new roads have tech imbedded. Instead of paint, the paint has something in it. Can be seen thru water. Visible thru a foot of snow. Preloaded maps. Science the hell out of it.

But self driving cars has to be viable and present before we figure that out.
 
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