Theonik
Member
Musk is just more bold than other people. That works too. And yes he's certainly being optimistic, but he's also the kind of person that will push this kind of optimism as a target.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Elon Musk believes Tesla's will be able to drive wholly autonomously within 2 years
- Thread starter gutshot
- Start date
- Status
LegendofDragoonLives
Member
A lot less deaths from people texting and driving now. Isn't this going to be tougher for cops to regulate?
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
Musk is a better PR man than anything else. He just says "I'll do X impossible thing in 2 years!" and gets fanboys hyped.
But the reason he has fanboys and the reason they get hyped when he says stuff like this is because he has generally backed up his words. He's not just spouting off promises and guarantees that never come to fruition.
Even he admitted 2 years may be a bit ambitious, but the tech will almost certainly be there, it's just a matter of how quickly Tesla will be allowed to utilize it.
I'm most familiar with Google's work in this field, but they're operating on a different level of expectations than Musk. They're working with federal governments to get the path to full autonomous legalization in place, working with major car manufacturers to license out their systems, they're constantly refining and iterating on their sensor net - for example their lidar system went through multiple iterations to reduce cost and improve accuracy. They are trying to create a 3d mapped environment (ie Google maps 2.0) for roads to get as clear a picture as possible, they are fine tuning their systems to even understand hand gestures made by cyclists or traffic cops.
The scope is different.
The scope is different.
Rebel Leader
THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
I hope is comes soon
This is going to shock the global economy when self driving vehicles destroy the transportation employment industry. The developed world should be preparing for this and they are completely ignoring what its going to do when tens of millions of jobs are lost to technological progress with no plan in place to help these people.
OrangeGrayBlue
Member
You really think everyone is going to have to manually drive their own car even 60 years from now?
Pai Pai Master
Banned
I think he's totally right. I just don't expect government regulations to be amended to allow this to happen within 2 years.
It's going to be a long fucking time until anyone can use their car to auto-drive on a major highway
It's going to be a long fucking time until anyone can use their car to auto-drive on a major highway
astroturfing
Member
self-driving cars, blah.. what a stupid fucking fad. don't tell me, it's also VR and has "organic" wearables?
I'm assuming you mean auto-drive as in unmanned, because manned auto-drive on major highways is already out there
hipbabboom
Huh? What did I say? Did I screw up again? :(
I would totally carry a magical staff instead of car keys if could summon my car :3
They are building a supercharge station in Little Rock this year I believe. There might be hope!
E-Cat
Member
And then he does it.
Sectorseven
Member
2-3 years puts it in line with Google's original estimate of 8 years, back in 2010.
adamsappel
Member
I think at some point either the manufacturers or the government will have some kind of sensor, even if it's just a redundant square of metal, embedded along the roads to either assist the car technology or squelch the public worry.
Oh sweet. Well guess I'll stick with my Altima till then. Man if I never have to pay for gas again....that would be so sweet.
ScepticMatt
Member
Martian years 
(Musk is notoriously wrong with the time frames of his promises and predictions)
(Musk is notoriously wrong with the time frames of his promises and predictions)
It is positive that if one nation handles it poorly, it WILL be the United States. You can fucking hold me on my words.
We will be one of the last developed nations on this earth to handle this problem.
Sectorseven
Member
Lol. Let it go, gramps. Shit is happening.
Yeah, lobbyists will fight this tooth and nail with money and every dirty tactic in the book.
Bubba_Sparks
Member
Maybe Elon was talking with regards to some sort of simplified system. I am only a laymen, but everything that has been communicated to us from the major drivers of this technology is that self driving on any road was at least a decade away. You not only have the technological hurdle to overcome, but also the legal frame work needs to be in place before such a system could be commercially available.
Not nearly a decade away. Maybe 10 years for some meaningful penetration, but Musk's previously predicted tech will be there in 2 years, regulation will be another 2-5 years behind that.
Teslas are electric vehicles and don't have to gas up. They would stop at Supercharging stations that have robotic arms which extend out to charge the vehicle autonomously. And Supercharging stations are free, so no credit card needed.
This gif deeply unsettles me. Its like the uncanny valley for something real. Something mechanical shouldn't move like that.
RIP
Me too. Way too smooth, looks way too much like a tentacle, way too obscene.
I'm sure it'll be big in Japan, though.
EDIT:
Ok, I'm done. This thread broke me. Now I can only think about robot sex.
Hasn't he generally been off the mark when it comes to timeframe predictions in the past?
Lewd
Lewd
Oh cum on, we're only seeing the tip. Things are starting to get exciting. Just need to find a way to deal with the white stuff!
andthebeatgoeson
Junior Member
Infrastructure. They use radar now, why not a magnet? Signs? Beacons?
Sounds like we need more tech and the government needs to be a job creator. All new roads have tech imbedded. Instead of paint, the paint has something in it. Can be seen thru water. Visible thru a foot of snow. Preloaded maps. Science the hell out of it.
But self driving cars has to be viable and present before we figure that out.
Timely Motherboard article for those fretting about snow:
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/autonomous-cars-can-now-drive-on-snow-covered-streets
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/autonomous-cars-can-now-drive-on-snow-covered-streets
- Status