VendettaRed07
Member
My initial reaction would be that there's no way Ryan and the GOP would have the balls to do it.
But in that scenario I can legitimately see them doing this and dealing with the fallout because of it.
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Endgame: McMullin now leads in Utah. McMullin 31, Trump 27, Clinton 24, Johnson 5
- Thread starter Tom_Cody
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My initial reaction would be that there's no way Ryan and the GOP would have the balls to do it.
But in that scenario I can legitimately see them doing this and dealing with the fallout because of it.
RPGCrazied
Member
Okay with me. Just means less votes for Trump there. Anything to suck his votes up is A-Ok with me.
Hillary is polling even in Arizona at this point with McMullin as a non-factor.
FelixOrion
Poet Centuriate
Correct. It would go to the House (voting as state delegations, not individual congress members) to bicker between the top three EC vote receivers (Trump, Clinton, and McMullin), while the Senate independently would be bickering over just Kaine and Pence for the VP (McMullin's running mate, Mindy Finn, would not be considered).
Yep, I would love to see this. In a similar vein... "if you run out a Trump-base pandering candidate next time don't expect Utah to fall in line"
SomeRandomWeirdGuy
Member
I think we all know how the electoral map is really gonna play out
In all seriousness though I hope Mcmuffin wins Utah if Hillary doesn't. Shows that Mormons have at least a little bit of self respect unlike most Evangelical Christians.
In all seriousness though I hope Mcmuffin wins Utah if Hillary doesn't. Shows that Mormons have at least a little bit of self respect unlike most Evangelical Christians.
SuperDowns
Banned
I looooove that article. My wife and I had a good laugh about the possibility.
Hellsing321
Member
Real talk: If his name was McGriddle he would win Utah 100%.
On point.
We must turn our ion cannons towards Utah and make sure they Vote Appropriately.
Made me bust out laughing like an asshole in my office.
ClayKavalier
Banned
Why does 538 still have Trump at a nearly 80% chance of winning Utah?
Trump and Clinton supporters would scream RIGGED
FelixOrion
Poet Centuriate
He's a pretty generic Republican candidate position-wise (pro-life, anti-Obamacare, pro-gun, pro-TPP, and wants to be tough on immigration). The small twists in his platform is that he's also calling for criminal justice reform (specifically denouncing Stop-and-Frisk and wants police held accountable), believes in man-made climate change, and that same-sex marriage is the law of the land and not a big deal for him.
As for if he's a doofus on stage, I have no idea but he seems much less bizarre than Johnson.
letmetrythisname
Member
I probably wouldn't be into his policies, but yeah, he can have Utah.
VendettaRed07
Member
Clinton supporters would scream rigged either way if the House picked the President. Most people don't even know they can do that.
But the fallout from Trump fans, I think whatever mutany they get there would be preferable than it to the Nazi Groper who would destroy nato and might drag us into nuclear war
Also considering how Trump said he'd kick Ryan out as speaker if he won
Sanders and Cruz won pretty handily here in the caucus (most LDS people I know voted Sanders). We've never liked Trump. Non-LDS conservatives are pretty split over him.
GiantEnemyGoomba
Member
I want him to win Utah just so Donald is 6 electoral votes more of a loser than he already would be.
FelixOrion
Poet Centuriate
New Utah state poll:
OCT. 12-18 (818 LV)
Dan Jones & Associates (538 Rating: C+)
25% Clinton
30% Trump
5% Johnson
29% McMullin
its happening
OCT. 12-18 (818 LV)
Dan Jones & Associates (538 Rating: C+)
25% Clinton
30% Trump
5% Johnson
29% McMullin
its happening
Honestly, honestly. I would probably never vote GOP but I really want republicans to move in a more reasonable direction after all this shit, so I wish McMullin all the luck in the world.
Hahahah
If it bleeds we can kill it.
FelixOrion
Poet Centuriate
Two new post-debate polls show Trump has only a 3-4% lead over McMullin:
Rasmussen/Pulse Opinion Research (538: C+)
750 LV (OCT. 23-24)
Clinton 28
Trump: 32
McMullin: 29
Johnson: 4
SurveyMonkey (538: C-)
969 LV (OCT. 17-25)
Clinton 28
Trump: 33
McMullin: 29
Johnson: 7
Rasmussen/Pulse Opinion Research (538: C+)
750 LV (OCT. 23-24)
Clinton 28
Trump: 32
McMullin: 29
Johnson: 4
SurveyMonkey (538: C-)
969 LV (OCT. 17-25)
Clinton 28
Trump: 33
McMullin: 29
Johnson: 7
Things are looking solid for McMullin in Utah. He will continue to get more press with numbers like these, and that will further solidify his standing. He might not win, but a showing in the mid-high 20s looks likely.
FelixOrion
Poet Centuriate
Yep. There have also been a lot of two horse and three horse (w/ Johnson) polls from Utah too, but 538 thinks that he has such a goof chance they're basically leaving any Utah polls that don't include him out of their forecasts.
ebullientprism
Member
GLOL.
Clinton consistently polls within 1-2% of McMullin. She could easily win Utah if the Dem machine outperforms the opposing get out the vote efforts, as a strong get out the vote push in a normal election can be worth 1-2% and Trump obviously isn't running anything remotely similar to a traditional get out the vote effort himself.
Clinton supporters should vote for her, knowing that conservatives are splitting their vote between McMullin and Trump, giving them the best chance in a long time to turn their state blue at least once.
But isn't ensuring it's not trump safer and easier ? That state is not turning blue for a while apart from this election . Won't a block be better and ensure she has reduced 6 more from trump . Obviously I'm just thinking of it from a risk rewards perspective a win is the best outcome but a mucllen win is better than trump and may be easier to achieve
A McMullin win in Utah does not help Clinton at all. The only thing a McMullin win could possibly do would be to cause no one to gain a majority of electoral votes, in which case the decision goes to the House of Representatives. The House will very likely not be voting for Clinton.
Your reasoning would be sound if the election was decided by whoever had more electoral votes, in which case Trump losing out on some would help Clinton, but that's not how the electoral college works. Clinton needs 270 to win, and Utah going to either Trump or McMullin won't affect that.
LucidMomentum
Member
From a theory perspective, Utah has basically always been a Red state so yeah, even if it doesn't turn Blue going to a Third Party would take some of the electoral votes away from Trump.
FelixOrion
Poet Centuriate
One of the theories on what's happening behind Trump's recent bump is that conservative Johnson supporters have been reluctantly walking back to Trump. In line with that, it makes some sense that McMullin would've also gotten some sort of a boost as Johnson fades. This seems to not have happened and his chances in Utah have probably tanked. He's basically down to a 10% chance for winning Utah.
Rasmussen/Pulse Opinion Research (OCT. 29-31) (538: C+)
750 LV
Clinton 31%
Trump 42%
Johnson 3%
McMullin 21%
SurveyMonkey (OCT. 27-NOV. 2) (538: C-)
1,247 LV
Clinton 30%
Trump 33%
Johnson 8%
McMullin 25%
Monmouth University (OCT. 30-NOV. 2) (538: A+)
402 LV
Clinton 31%
Trump 37%
Johnson 4%
McMullin 24%
Emerson College (OCT. 31-NOV. 2) (538: B)
1,000 LV
Clinton 20%
Trump 40%
Johnson 3%
McMullin 28%
Still no public polling data in states with sizable Mormon minority populations like Idaho.
Rasmussen/Pulse Opinion Research (OCT. 29-31) (538: C+)
750 LV
Clinton 31%
Trump 42%
Johnson 3%
McMullin 21%
SurveyMonkey (OCT. 27-NOV. 2) (538: C-)
1,247 LV
Clinton 30%
Trump 33%
Johnson 8%
McMullin 25%
Monmouth University (OCT. 30-NOV. 2) (538: A+)
402 LV
Clinton 31%
Trump 37%
Johnson 4%
McMullin 24%
Emerson College (OCT. 31-NOV. 2) (538: B)
1,000 LV
Clinton 20%
Trump 40%
Johnson 3%
McMullin 28%
Still no public polling data in states with sizable Mormon minority populations like Idaho.
I just read his wikipedia. He seems good about healthcare and says he thinks its tike to move on from complaining about gay marriage. The only thing that seems bad is his opposition to abortion and guatanamo bay, what makes him so awful compared to others?
It doesn't make a difference.
One way to think of it is that Clinton needs 270 electoral votes to win. Period. It doesn't matter to her how many EVs Trump gets.
Therefore, whether Trump or McMuffin gets Utah's votes makes no difference to the outcome at all. The outcome is the same whether Trump gets 269 electoral votes or 5.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
The proposed mechanism by which McMullin "benefits" Hillary is not by winning, it's by denying enough votes to Trump that Hillary wins Utah (when she ought not from an approval voting perspective). But polls don't suggest that will happen.
Vince_Russo
Banned
I remember when Mormons kids on the playground would tell me that their parents were concerned with them playing with me because non-mormons don't have good values.
Now they're voting for Pussy Grabbin' Donald Trump.
I Love Christianity.
Now they're voting for Pussy Grabbin' Donald Trump.
I Love Christianity.
FelixOrion
Poet Centuriate
One of co-workers is Mormon and sees McMullin's foreign policies, military proposals, and CIA background from the last decade to be essentially an extension of how Bush/Obama dealt with the Middle East and Russia, which he finds abhorrent and is kinda disappointed with his fellow Mormons for having the wool pulled over their eyes, so to speak.
I remember when Mormons kids on the playground would tell me that their parents were concerned with them playing with me because non-mormons don't have good values.
Now they're voting for Pussy Grabbin' Donald Trump.
I Love Christianity.
To be fair, I think the Mormons have far and way rejected Trump more than any other Christian denomination, other than Catholics who have had a decent Clinton lean this cycle.
I think in both cases, we are seeing Republicans who don't like Trump coalescing around him as election day approaches.
Three weeks ago it looked like he would get wiped out, so voting for a 3rd party as a protest vote probably made more sense. Now that it's getting closer, they are forced to decide if they actually want Hillary or Trump. Which ironically is making it closer. It's kind of a chicken-or-the-egg kind of thing.
Already Torn
Banned
No, voting for third party is only voting for Trump in bordlerline states or if you normally vote Democrat. Republicans voting third party should be encouraged everywhere for all races.
gutter_trash
Banned
Trump being the first Republican to lose Utah since 1964 would surely bruise his ego (he hates losing)
Sorry to have pumped this thread again. To be clear, it no longer looks like there is a chance he will lose Utah.
QuantumZebra
Member
that's actually a really good point
I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the young BYU mormons (and Republicans in general) flock to him
JHoNNy1OoO
Member
It would be tough as hell if I were a Hillary voter in Utah. Part of me would want to vote for McMullin just to fuck over Trump but the other part of me would want to still vote for the first Female President. I'd guess a vote for McMullin you're still doing that by making it harder for Trump in a worst case scenario and as a last minute fuck you.
GL McMullin!
GL McMullin!
I remember when Mormons kids on the playground would tell me that their parents were concerned with them playing with me because non-mormons don't have good values.
Now they're voting for Pussy Grabbin' Donald Trump.
I Love Christianity.
I am a Mormon that lives in Utah who voted for Hilary. I know lots of people who are voting for Trump for only one reason... the Supreme Court nominee. The funny thing is... I know a lot of women who are are voting for Hilary here and a lot of men who are voting for Trump. I do not know many Mormon women who like Trump at all. I know this is all anecdotal.
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