Already Torn
Banned
I doubt it. I mean it sucks but it's honestly impressive he got that many votes in what was clearly a rigged contest in the first place. It really shows how big league his message is that he had such tremendous success.
Endgame: McMullin now leads in Utah. McMullin 31, Trump 27, Clinton 24, Johnson 5
- Thread starter Tom_Cody
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FUBAR McDangles
Member
Not to completely derail on a post from several weeks ago but:
I'm seeing yellow and orange and white not any shade of blue or grey.
Am I going insane or...?
Dark blue: on ballot
Light blue: Write-in only
Grey: No access to votes
I'm seeing yellow and orange and white not any shade of blue or grey.
Am I going insane or...?
Hickbilly Deluxe
Banned
No lie, I would laugh my ass off if this guy beat all the odds and somehow became president.
It's grey. You're probably on dark theme, so it looks white, but it's really just a light shade of grey.
This is all part of an elaborate game we've been playing with you for years. As is this comment. Your next move will, with great certainty, be to ignore this crackpot comment. Things will now proceed as planned.
Squirrel Killer
Member
I'm seeing two shades of orange and very light grey. Definitely no blue.
The graphic just probably got updated and re-uploaded to the same URL.
FO-totality
Poet Centuriate
They changed the colors on the linked image after I posted. When I posted that, they were using blue, since then the map makers at Wikipedia changed the colors for Mullins's ballot access to orange/yellow but the link remains the same.
Laevateinn
Member
All day breakfast was a mistake.
Also, it looks like I'm losing my office election prediction contest. Fuck.
Also, it looks like I'm losing my office election prediction contest. Fuck.
FUBAR McDangles
Member
Alright then. Good to know. Thanks.
Man Called Aerodynamics
Member
Anything to make Trump's path to 270 a little bit steeper is a win in my book.
FO-totality
Poet Centuriate
Y2 Analytics (NOV. 1-3) (538: C+)
500 LV
Clinton 24%
Trump 33%
Johnson 5%
McMullin 28%
500 LV
Clinton 24%
Trump 33%
Johnson 5%
McMullin 28%
FO-totality
Poet Centuriate
Probably my last check-in on Egg McMuffin before the election:
Trafalgar Group (Nov. 3-5) (538: C)
1,350 LV
Clinton 30%
Trump 40%
Johnson 4%
McMullin 25%
538 Now-cast: 13.5% chance to win Utah
538 Polls-only: 12.4% chance
538 Polls-plus: 11.7% chance
Trafalgar Group (Nov. 3-5) (538: C)
1,350 LV
Clinton 30%
Trump 40%
Johnson 4%
McMullin 25%
538 Now-cast: 13.5% chance to win Utah
538 Polls-only: 12.4% chance
538 Polls-plus: 11.7% chance
Pretty good change he'll be the repub nominee in 2020?
FO-totality
Poet Centuriate
I doubt it. He's a pretty neutral, cookie-cutter GOP candidate, but the main reason he's doing well at all in Utah is because he's a non-controversial Mormon conservative. I don't think that translates that well to the national stage. But he could certainly tout a Utah win as reason to vote for him in the 2019/2020 primary season.
gutter_trash
Banned
yes RPG, I read it wrong.
I said nothing
I said nothing
RPGCrazied
Member
Did I read the last poll wrong? It said Trump was leading by 40% of the vote.
Evening Musuko
Black Korea
Mushroomer25
Member
Bumping this with the same headline is really only going to misinform people.
It's looking like Trump has Utah, unless turnout works against him. Which is a shame. Almost wish Clinton would encouraged her Utah supporters to vote for McMullin as a means to close the gap, but she's too close to taking it for herself for that to be viable.
It's looking like Trump has Utah, unless turnout works against him. Which is a shame. Almost wish Clinton would encouraged her Utah supporters to vote for McMullin as a means to close the gap, but she's too close to taking it for herself for that to be viable.
A Link to the Past
Banned
I kind of don't want McMullin to win. Trump winning Utah won't win him the election, and it won't make him a viable contender. McMullin winning though? He could be the GOP's Obama. I'd sooner see him nipped in the bud.
Your pronoun usage is extremely confusing. Please edit to clarify.
Some Utahns.
Not all.
Trump will probably win Utah, proving that at the end of the day, Utahns can, will and do support a deplorable asshole.
McMullin has no chance nationally. At best he could be Utah's governor or senator one day.
Mushroomer25
Member
Somehow managed to type 'McMullin' instead of Clinton.
timetokill
Banned
FO-totality
Poet Centuriate
Sorry, but I wasn't gonna make a new thread for each batch of polls. This was kinda the de facto McMullin Polls Thread in my eyes.
No, but it will give anyone thinking about using Trump's strategy in the future pause. If they can't even count on a solidly red state to stay in their column they might not do it in the future.
TAJ
Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.
She has no chance. If that's her reason for not throwing her votes to McMuffin then lol.
I think a bald middle of the road Mormon is pretty much the opposite of anyone's Obama.
LudicrousSpeed
Member
Trump losing Utah to McMullin doesn't really hurt him especially bad. It will hurt his ego, but that's about all.
Imagine McMullin wins Utah.
If Trump has < 264 electoral votes, Trump losing Utah didn't cost him the election.
If Trump has >= 270 electoral votes, Trump wins anyway
If Trump ends up in the middle, where he has somewhere between 264 and 269 electoral votes, then McMullin's win will throw the election into the House. Seeing as how it's the House that the Republicans have on lockdown and their choices will be Trump and Clinton only, Trump will be elected President anyway.
Hillary's only interest in Utah was when she was seeing if she might be able to win the electoral votes by getting the rest of the state to split evenly between Trump and McMullin. If that's not possible, she doesn't really care if it's McMullin or Trump that wins.
That is fucking stupid. Because then it goes to the House and the House will vote Trump in. So they are just voting for Trump via proxy.
A Link to the Past
Banned
While Romney is not the best choice for my argument given that he's never one an election, it's not like Mormonism is an inherent failing. McMullin is relatively new, untainted by scandal, has not been shown to do extremist shit (unless I missed something), and opposed Trump. Jeb, Rubio, and Cruz, none of them nail all four; Kasich hits three of these, but I think he suffers some of the same problems as McMullin does.
ClayKavalier
Banned
I know 538 have been getting a lot of criticism over their model recently, but they still have Trump at an over 80% probability of winning Utah, and this isn't the first time I've read a story that says McMullin is polling very well. What gives?
He's polling very well, but consistently below Trump. He has a good chance of a solid showing in Utah, but not enough to overtake him. He might beat Hillary in Utah though, which would be somewhat of an accomplishment.
Catchpenny
Member
It's really a shame McMullin isn't on the ballot in Arizona, Nevada or Alaska. He could have helped Hillary that way. I'll have to settle for laughing at a Republican candidate losing, or at least getting under 50%, in Utah.
I just still can't believe that an Independent candidate didn't sweep in earlier to take advantage of this mess. Ron Paul would have done so well in 2016 haha (not that I dig Ron Paul or actually believe he would have done well).
Wafflecakes
Member
Figures that the first election after I move out of Utah would be the first competitive (and probably last) competitive election in decades.
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