Do effects get affected that much by VRAM? A fair number of console games have had effects toned down or removed where as I have been able to push them on my 2GB card.
All the fuss over Shadows of Mordor have not really transpired for me. I am running a mix of high/ultra (including DOF and tessellation) with high textures at 60fps for the most part.
I am aware that going further into the future will incur more issues.
Well higher quality assets and effects will lead to a bigger framebuffer. It remains to be seen exactly how much memory is needed to match consoles, but I would be very surprised if 2GB is enough.