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[Vagswarm]

It might look bad compared to PS5, but Xbox is doing extremely well in Japan compared to last gen. Literally 5x better. Phil Spencer was not lying when he said Japan was the fastest growing Xbox market.

Xbox One S+X's last reported total was 114,802 units over 6 years. Xbox Series S+X in comparison has sold 92,366 units as of this week, and has only been on sale for 10 months. To put in perspective it has sold faster in 50 weeks than the Xbox One did in 50 months.

I wonder why that is. Are there any particular games on the Xbox that the Japanese favor compared to their previous systems?

 

[Killer8]

I wonder why that is. Are there any particular games on the Xbox that the Japanese favor compared to their previous systems?

Probably a lot of small factors adding up.

The Japanese dev support is getting better. Xbox now has all of the Yakuza games, Dragon Quest XI S, and even Octopath Traveler on Game Pass (that one isn't even out on PS4 yet). It's actually getting stuff Japanese people care about.

Game Pass is supposedly popular in Japan, which is understandable because it includes xCloud streaming for mobile phones. In Japan, mobile gaming is king and internet is extremely good, so it makes sense for them to be interested in that.

So I imagine to take full advantage of that Game Pass sub, some Japanese may decide to also pick up an Xbox console for home use. I think the evidence for Xbox consoles mostly being used as Game Pass boxes can be seen in the non-existent software sales.

I don't know what the Series X to S sales ratio is globally, but in Japan it is 2:1, which seems healthy for the Series S. It got a $30 price cut in Japan, has nice aesthetics, and is a small size which fits neatly into small apartments. It's no longer just a big ugly box like all previous Xbox consoles, which appeals to the style conscious Japanese. I can see a lot of people picking one up for the novelty of it.

Japan is also generally becoming more Westernized. They are not against buying American, as evidenced by Apple dominating the phone market. Microsoft just need to have the right strategy and find a niche in the market, and I think the cheap Series S + Game Pass + mobile streaming combo offers that.

 

[Roger Rabbit]

Also scalpers.

And the fact that some people who can't find a PS5 but have been lucky enough to come across a Series have snapped it up.

Plus being sold out tends to make any console more desirable.

I don't actually believe that there are a load more Japanese Xbox gamers now than there were last gen. I'm sure the Series is more popular among westerners here than its predecessor, but I don't buy that there's been a surge of interest from Japanese people.

 

[Woopah]

The point is the same games on the wii u sold gang busters on the switch and drove way more sales. If the switch wasn't portable it wouldn't be a mega success.

It definitely helps, just like PS4 is helped by being a powerful stationary console. But in neither case is the form factor the main reason for the platform being successful.

Edit: Or to put it another way, lack of portability was the least of Wii U's problems. A portable system that had the same marketing and game release schedule would have done equally as bad.

 

[smbu2000]

Probably a lot of small factors adding up.

The Japanese dev support is getting better. Xbox now has all of the Yakuza games, Dragon Quest XI S, and even Octopath Traveler on Game Pass (that one isn't even out on PS4 yet). It's actually getting stuff Japanese people care about.

Game Pass is supposedly popular in Japan, which is understandable because it includes xCloud streaming for mobile phones. In Japan, mobile gaming is king and internet is extremely good, so it makes sense for them to be interested in that.

So I imagine to take full advantage of that Game Pass sub, some Japanese may decide to also pick up an Xbox console for home use. I think the evidence for Xbox consoles mostly being used as Game Pass boxes can be seen in the non-existent software sales.

I don't know what the Series X to S sales ratio is globally, but in Japan it is 2:1, which seems healthy for the Series S. It got a $30 price cut in Japan, has nice aesthetics, and is a small size which fits neatly into small apartments. It's no longer just a big ugly box like all previous Xbox consoles, which appeals to the style conscious Japanese. I can see a lot of people picking one up for the novelty of it.

Japan is also generally becoming more Westernized. They are not against buying American, as evidenced by Apple dominating the phone market. Microsoft just need to have the right strategy and find a niche in the market, and I think the cheap Series S + Game Pass + mobile streaming combo offers that.

MS is still needs to improve Game Pass in Japan. Some games are still missing, although it is getting better. When I checked last year a lot of games were missing compared to the USA. Now it isn’t so bad.

Xcloud is also not available in JP yet. I’m guessing they will enable it in the future. That should also help JP Xbox/Game Pass Ultimate numbers.

 

[Fake]

Being portable doesn't necessarily guarantee success.

Software matters.

 

[Kerotan]

It definitely helps, just like PS4 is helped by being a powerful stationary console. But in neither case is the form factor the main reason for the platform being successful.

Edit: Or to put it another way, lack of portability was the least of Wii U's problems. A portable system that had the same marketing and game release schedule would have done equally as bad.

No chance. If the wii u was portable it sells a hell of a lot more. And it would get all the portable games it missed out on too.

 

[Woopah]

No chance. If the wii u was portable it sells a hell of a lot more. And it would get all the portable games it missed out on too.

If it had a different line up then yes. But if the Wii U had was a portable device with the same line up? No.

I don't think a portable platform with New Super Mario Bros. U, Nintendo Land, Sing Party and Lego City as it's only major releases in the first 6 months would have done much better than what Wii U did.

 

[Azelover]

No chance. If the wii u was portable it sells a hell of a lot more. And it would get all the portable games it missed out on too.

Marketing.. you guys keep forgetting this magical word.

Nintendo ditched their long-time marketing firm towards the end of the Wii era. They signed with another firm, and it didn't work out so well.

Just before they announced the Switch though. They switched(no pun) back to the firm they used to introduce the DS and Wii. That changed everything..You can see in the commercials, the style of this firm is very peculiar. They like using real world effects and such. And they really display the hardware. That made a difference.

 

[noshten]

PlayStation Ecosystem 2014-2020 Media Create Top 1000:

1. 2014 - 16.067.673
2. 2016 - 15.125.473
3. 2015 - 14.810.407
4. 2017 - 12.214.294
5. 2018 - 11.764.786
6. 2019 - 9.537.039
7. 2020 - 8.018.518

Last year PlayStation was still doing alright in terms of software it had it's lowest result since 1994 but it's only 2021 where we are starting to see how low things can go.

PlayStation Ecosystem Top 50 Famitsu

1. [PS4] Resident Evil Village (Capcom) - 191.983
2. [PS4] Tales of Arise (Bandai Namco) - 184.444
3. [PS4] NieR Replicant (Square Enix) - 158.265
4. [PS4] Tsukihime (Aniplex) - 80.042
5. [PS4] Samurai Warriors 5 (Koei Tecmo) - 72.727
6. [PS5] Resident Evil Village (Capcom) - 67.000
7. [PS5] Tales of Arise (Bandai Namco) - 56.913
8. [PS4] Scarlet Nexus(Bandai Namco) - 31.665
9. [PS4] Biomutant (THQ Nordic) - 30.292
10. [PS4] Little Nightmares II (Bandai Namco) - 24.968
11. [PS4] Judgment [New Price Edition] (Sega) - 24.271
12. [PS5] Final Fantasy VII Remake Intergrade (Square Enix) - 23.491
13. [PS4] Neptunia x Senran Kagura: Ninja Wars (Compile Heart) – 18.789
14. [PS4] Disgaea 6 (Nippon Ichi) - 18.289
15. [PS5] Ratchet & Clank: Rift Apart (Sony) - 17.850
16. [PS5] Ghost of Tsushima - Director's Cut (Sony) - 17.271
17. [PS4] Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War (Sony) - 16.454
18. [PS4] Dragon Quest XI S (Square Enix) - 16.352
19. [PS4] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (Marvelous) - 16.235
20. [PS5] Judgement: Remastered [New Price Edition] (Sega) - 14.749
21. [PS4] Ninja Gaiden: Master Collection (Koei Tecmo) - 14.483
22. [PS4] NieR: Automata - GotY Edition (Square Enix) - 13.712
23. [PS4] Guilty Gear - Strive (Arc System) - 13.574
24. [PS4] Winning Post 9 2021 (Koei Tecmo) - 13.221
25. [PS5] Scarlet Nexus (Bandai Namco) - 12.785
26. [PS4] The Legend of Nayuta: Boundless Trails (Falcom) - 11.230
27. [PS4] The Quintessential Quintuplets (5pb.) - 10.378
28. [PS4] Utawarerumono: ZAN 2 (Aqua Plus) - 10.241
29. [PS4] Nioh 2 - Complete Edition (Koei Tecmo) - 9.969
30. [PS4] NEO: The World Ends With You (Square Enix) - 9.248
31. [PS5] Returnal (Sony) - 9.148
32. [PS4] R-Type Final 2 (Granzella) - 8.693
33. [PS4] The Caligula Effect 2 (FuRyu) - 8.454
34. [PS4] Outriders (Square Enix) - 7.966
35. [PS4] NBA 2K22 (Take-Two) - 6.291
36. [PS4] Hitman 3 (H2 Interactive) - 5.132
37. [PS4] Akiba's Trip: First Memory (Acquire) - 4.888
38. [PS4] Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts 2 (H2 Interactive) - 4.551
39. [PS5] Utawarerumono: ZAN 2 (Aqua Plus) - 4.081
40. [PS5] Hitman 3 (H2 Interactive) - 3.890
41. [PS4] Rust (Koch Media) - 3.671
42. [PS5] Guilty Gear - Strive (Arc System) - 3.547
43. [PS4] Darius Cozmic Revelation (Taito) - 3.540
44. [PS4] Fate/Extella - Celebration Box (Marvelous) - 3.498
45. [PS4] The Great Ace Attorney Chronicles (Square Enix) - 3.470
46. [PS4] Umineko no Naku Koro ni Saku (Entergram) - 3.361
47. [PS5] Deathloop (Sony) – 3.158
48. [PS4] Atelier Mysterious Trilogy (Koei Tecmo) - 3.074
49. [PS4] Re:ZERO - Starting Life in Another World (Spike Chunsoft) - 2.868
50. [PS5] Yakuza 7: Like a Dragon (Sega) - 2.861

TOTAL: 1.297.033
TOTAL PS4: 1.060.289 (81.7%)
TOTAL PS5: 236.744 (18.3%)

PS Ecosystem Top 10 Publishers

1. Bandai Namco - 310.775
2. Capcom - 258.983
3. Square Enix - 232.504
4. Sony/Aniplex - 143.923
5. Koei Tecmo - 113.474
6. Other - 108.390
7. Sega - 41.881
8. THQ Nordic - 30.292
9. Marvelous - 19.733
10. Compile Heart – 18.789
11. Nippon Ichi - 18.289

Even if we give the PS Ecosystem a 20% additional physical sales via legs & generous digital share of 40% across all titles that's still be about 2.17 million across the Top 50 titles of 2021. Personally there is enough reasons to actually think digital is at most 30% but that's another matter that I would not like to discuss right now.

For the rest of the year there are a few games but nothing really is set to outsell Resident Evil: Village, Tales of Arise or Nier Replicant. The biggest titles remaining are Lost Judgement & Demon Slayer, nothing else is going to surpass 100K meaning that across the Top 50 PS4/PS5 titles we are likely going to end up with fewer than 3 million physical sales in 2021, if PS5 achieves 20% of the sales that's 600K physical sales in 2021 and PS4 at 2.4 million. So across the Media Create Top 1000 I think we are likely to witness a YoY drop of 50% and sales below 4 million.

With 2022 unlikely to fair any better due to rapid decline of the PS4, we are already seeing the system struggle to get titles that surpass 200K sales with Tales of Arise being one of the last titles to achieve this milestone escaping niche status. PS6 unable to support big software sales due to the hardware being resold overseas the drop is likely to continue next year.

How low can the PS Ecosystem go in Japan is anyone's guess but the trend painted by prior years and known numbers in 2021 is pretty clear.

Nintendo & Pokemon focused on a single device while Sony abandoned the portable space has handed Nintendo the entire market. Rather than form-factor to me that is the key thing. Software for all audiences and no droughts with a bunch of smash hits. Switch being a hybrid has definitely helped as it was seen as the natural successor of the Vita by many Japanese Third Party AA games and indies across the World.

Simply put the line-up of the PS5 in terms of both first and third party efforts isn't enough for us to expect anything near the level of success PS4 achieved in Japan, especially as the PS4 had much greater number of exclusives from both small and large publishers. But that's the main thing, PS4 released at time where Wii U was bombing in all markets, while 3DS was only a market leader in Japan and that system was already past it's peak in the country. Switch is likely to be in its software peak for a while - Splatoon 3, Pokemon Remakes, 3D Kirby, Arceus, Mario Party Superstars, Rise Expansion, New Horizon update & Breath of the Wild sequel combined with the strongest evergreen library Japan has ever seen will ensure this stays the case until the end of 2022.

Maybe in 2023 when chip shortages are solved and we get something like an exclusive Monster Hunter World 2 we will see sales growth but nothing close to what they were managing before the Switch launch.

The solution is a major investment into Japan - at the very least two of the major publishers there like Square & Bandai and a few smaller studios pumping out PS exclusives focused on the home market and all audiences. Nintendo makes very few "mature" games across their first party studios. Without a major investment I can see PS5 fading into irrelevance in Japan within a few years, ensuring that what ever Nintendo decides to release in terms of hardware will gain the majority of Japanese third party support right out of the gate.

 

[Kerotan]

Marketing.. you guys keep forgetting this magical word.

Nintendo ditched their long-time marketing firm towards the end of the Wii era. They signed with another firm, and it didn't work out so well.

Just before they announced the Switch though. They switched(no pun) back to the firm they used to introduce the DS and Wii. That changed everything..You can see in the commercials, the style of this firm is very peculiar. They like using real world effects and such. And they really display the hardware. That made a difference.

I didn't know that but I'd say they're glad they did. The switch ticked all the boxes. Portable, non portable, same old good Nintendo SW they always had, all support focused on one console, better online functionality and an affordable price. And a better marketing firm which I didn't know.

 

[Kerotan]

B

If it had a different line up then yes. But if the Wii U had was a portable device with the same line up? No.

I don't think a portable platform with New Super Mario Bros. U, Nintendo Land, Sing Party and Lego City as it's only major releases in the first 6 months would have done much better than what Wii U did.

But it had zelda, splatooon, Mario kart 8, super smash bros, 3d Mario and some other games that would sell on switch. Don't forget they cut it's life very short and it didn't get the big portable games like a mainline monster hunter, yokai watch or pokemon.

 

[Woopah]

B

But it had zelda, splatooon, Mario kart 8, super smash bros, 3d Mario and some other games that would sell on switch. Don't forget they cut it's life very short and it didn't get the big portable games like a mainline monster hunter, yokai watch or pokemon.

Yes but those games were spread out across its lifetime and a new Zelda didn't come until the very end. And as you yourself said, the Wii U did not get several franchises that really would have helped it.

What I'm saying is that, regardless of whether it was a portable, a home console or a hybrid, a platform with the Wii U's line up wouldn't sell well.

A home console with the Switch's line up would have done far far better than a portable with the Wii U's line up. It's the games that matter more than the format.

 

[Kerotan]

Yes but those games were spread out across its lifetime and a new Zelda didn't come until the very end. And as you yourself said, the Wii U did not get several franchises that really would have helped it.

What I'm saying is that, regardless of whether it was a portable, a home console or a hybrid, a platform with the Wii U's line up wouldn't sell well.

A home console with the Switch's line up would have done far far better than a portable with the Wii U's line up. It's the games that matter more than the format.

The switch had sold gang busters before it had a line up on par with the wii u and don't forget many of the top sellers were ports of the wii u games or a sequel like splatooon 2.

 

[Woopah]

The switch had sold gang busters before it had a line up on par with the wii u and don't forget many of the top sellers were ports of the wii u games or a sequel like splatooon 2.

BOTW, Splatoon 2, Arms, Mario vs. Rabbids and Mario Odyssey were a far far stronger launch window than what the Wii U got. The Wii U ports are about 15% of the Switch's line up but for the Wii U they were basically the whole line up.

The two platforms had very different release schedules that, along with marketing, explain most of the difference between the Wii U and Switch hardware sales.

 

[Roger Rabbit]

The Wii U ports are about 15% of the Switch's line up.

Do you mean first party line-up? If not, the Wii U ports are a miniscule percentage of the Switch's total software line up. There are about 4,000 games on the Switch now.

 

[EDMIX]

It just surprises me that Sony isn’t looking to target that handheld market too.

It shouldn't.

Thats like saying it should surprise you that Nintendo is not making a dedicated home console or something. Switch doing well doesn't mean those same games would do great on a home console.....those same fucking games also didn't do shit for Wii U.

Why would that be any different for Sony?

The community of PS fans doesn't care for handheld to the same degree no different then the community for Nintendo fans don't care for home console to the same degree, EVEN WITH THE SAME EXACT GAMES.

So I think even if they put out a PSP 3 with GT, Killzone, Uncharted, God Of War, HZD etc doesn't matter, those are concepts that PS fans enjoy.....AT HOME, thus would simply find the community wanting that content on a home console, so even if we split the baby on this one, it means those games even coming day and date on PSP3 and PS5 or something, would have no reason for many hardcore PS fans to even buy a PSP3.

I think its over for that concept for Sony and I think they are wise to let it go and focus on home console, just like Nintendo is doing with portable.

It makes sense for both companies.

 

[Kerotan]

BOTW, Splatoon 2, Arms, Mario vs. Rabbids and Mario Odyssey were a far far stronger launch window than what the Wii U got. The Wii U ports are about 15% of the Switch's line up but for the Wii U they were basically the whole line up.

The two platforms had very different release schedules that, along with marketing, explain most of the difference between the Wii U and Switch hardware sales.

Look at the top 10 for switch and wii u. Very similar lineups. The main difference is the lack of pokemon and animal crossing but like I said they only come to portables at least their mainline editions. The reality is if the switch was portable only it would still be doing massive numbers and far higher then if it was not portable at all.

Video Game Charts, Game Sales, Top Sellers, Game Data - VGChartz

VGChartz - extensive game chart coverage, including sales data, news, reviews, forums, & game database for PS5, Xbox Series, Nintendo Switch & PC

www.vgchartz.com

Video Game Charts, Game Sales, Top Sellers, Game Data - VGChartz

VGChartz - extensive game chart coverage, including sales data, news, reviews, forums, & game database for PS5, Xbox Series, Nintendo Switch & PC

www.vgchartz.com

 

[CuteFaceJay]

no software sales on the PS5 is understandable given how much the thing was scalped. not like scalpers are buying games for their stock

 

[Shaqazooloo]

Look at the top 10 for switch and wii u. Very similar lineups. The main difference is the lack of pokemon and animal crossing but like I said they only come to portables at least their mainline editions. The reality is if the switch was portable only it would still be doing massive numbers and far higher then if it was not portable at all.

Video Game Charts, Game Sales, Top Sellers, Game Data - VGChartz

VGChartz - extensive game chart coverage, including sales data, news, reviews, forums, & game database for PS5, Xbox Series, Nintendo Switch & PC

www.vgchartz.com

Video Game Charts, Game Sales, Top Sellers, Game Data - VGChartz

VGChartz - extensive game chart coverage, including sales data, news, reviews, forums, & game database for PS5, Xbox Series, Nintendo Switch & PC

www.vgchartz.com

That's true for Pokémon but not Animal Crossing since the Gamecube and Wii had their own games.

The top 10 software for both are not that similar, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is the only former Wii U title their, everything else is a sequel that were exactly what Nintendo fans wanted. If you're saying that Smash, 3D Mario or Zelda on Wii U have the same impact as the Switch equivalents then you need to rethink and also look at the context.

Take 3D World for example, it was a 2D Mario made 3D and was basically multi-player sequel to 3D Land which had released on the 3DS a year prior. Everybody had been wanting a more sandbox Mario like 64 or Sunshine but instead got a more linear 2D like game in an Era when Nintendo was going 2D crazy and putting it into everything. It is not comparable to Odysseys release whatsoever. Odyssey had hype, 3D World didn't (for the most part).

The Wii U was a trash concept. Nobody wants to split their attention between two separated screens for gameplay, that's why the market rejected Starfox Zero en mass. Making Wii U portable wouldn't have saved it if the concept was the same.

And the reason the Switch is selling is because it's a hybrid. Look at the tanking Switch Lite sales. If Nintendo had made Switch portable only their wouldn't really be that much of an appeal.

 

[Roger Rabbit]

And the reason the Switch is selling is because it's a hybrid. Look at the tanking Switch Lite sales. If Nintendo had made Switch portable only their wouldn't really be that much of an appeal.

Nobody knows how much appeal the Switch would have if it were portable only (and presumably called something else).

I don't think the paucity of Lite sales compared to the hybrid is a fair indication. The elephant in the room is that for not much more money than the Lite, you can get a product with a load more functionality. That is clearly weighing down the Lite sales very much.

 

[Woopah]

Look at the top 10 for switch and wii u. Very similar lineups. The main difference is the lack of pokemon and animal crossing but like I said they only come to portables at least their mainline editions. The reality is if the switch was portable only it would still be doing massive numbers and far higher then if it was not portable at all.

Video Game Charts, Game Sales, Top Sellers, Game Data - VGChartz

VGChartz - extensive game chart coverage, including sales data, news, reviews, forums, & game database for PS5, Xbox Series, Nintendo Switch & PC

www.vgchartz.com

Video Game Charts, Game Sales, Top Sellers, Game Data - VGChartz

VGChartz - extensive game chart coverage, including sales data, news, reviews, forums, & game database for PS5, Xbox Series, Nintendo Switch & PC

www.vgchartz.com

That's not a good way of judging line ups. By that logic the SNES and N64 have similar lineups too. If I compare the best selling games on PS4 to PSV I see Uncharted, FIFA, COD and Assassin's Creed on both lists. Does that mean that PS4 and the Vita have similar line ups? Does it mean PS4 is selling because it is a console? Of course not.

Being a portable is not enough for a system to do massive numbers. The 3DS didn't do massive numbers at launch, not until a drastic prices cut and the release of big software. A portable only Switch that did not have BOTW, Mario Kart 8, Splatoon 2 and Mario Odyssey in its launch period would have done very badly.

 

[noshten]

IMO main appeal of the Switch is that all Nintendo & Pokemon Co games are on a single device; followed by the amount of support it has received by indies & AA Japanese games since it's launch. Hybrid as a form factor is the cherry on top, but if it just had a Wii U level of support by Nintendo, Pokemon Co & third parties it wouldn't be in the place it currently is.

 

[Kerotan]

That's true for Pokémon but not Animal Crossing since the Gamecube and Wii had their own games.

The top 10 software for both are not that similar, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe is the only former Wii U title their, everything else is a sequel that were exactly what Nintendo fans wanted. If you're saying that Smash, 3D Mario or Zelda on Wii U have the same impact as the Switch equivalents then you need to rethink and also look at the context.

Take 3D World for example, it was a 2D Mario made 3D and was basically multi-player sequel to 3D Land which had released on the 3DS a year prior. Everybody had been wanting a more sandbox Mario like 64 or Sunshine but instead got a more linear 2D like game in an Era when Nintendo was going 2D crazy and putting it into everything. It is not comparable to Odysseys release whatsoever. Odyssey had hype, 3D World didn't (for the most part).

The Wii U was a trash concept. Nobody wants to split their attention between two separated screens for gameplay, that's why the market rejected Starfox Zero en mass. Making Wii U portable wouldn't have saved it if the concept was the same.

And the reason the Switch is selling is because it's a hybrid. Look at the tanking Switch Lite sales. If Nintendo had made Switch portable only their wouldn't really be that much of an appeal.

There's no doubt the hybrid is big for more then one reason. The first being the portability but the second being it gets every game Nintendo makes.

It also makes so sense for Sony or MS to do a hybrid

That's not a good way of judging line ups. By that logic the SNES and N64 have similar lineups too. If I compare the best selling games on PS4 to PSV I see Uncharted, FIFA, COD and Assassin's Creed on both lists. Does that mean that PS4 and the Vita have similar line ups? Does it mean PS4 is selling because it is a console? Of course not.

Being a portable is not enough for a system to do massive numbers. The 3DS didn't do massive numbers at launch, not until a drastic prices cut and the release of big software. A portable only Switch that did not have BOTW, Mario Kart 8, Splatoon 2 and Mario Odyssey in its launch period would have done very badly.

The main selling point the ps4 had was it wasn't portable. It was a powerful home console for a good price. Obviously good games too but it's early sales were based off power, sales and good will from late gen PS3 titles.

 

[Woopah]

There's no doubt the hybrid is big for more then one reason. The first being the portability but the second being it gets every game Nintendo makes.

It also makes so sense for Sony or MS to do a hybrid

The main selling point the ps4 had was it wasn't portable. It was a powerful home console for a good price. Obviously good games too but it's early sales were based off power, sales and good will from late gen PS3 titles.

The GameCube was a powerful home console for a good price and that didn't help it. PS4 had some of the industry's largest franchises (Call of Duty, FIFA, NBA, Battlefield, Assasins Creed) available at launch.

Yes things like price, marketing and hardware capabilities/functionality are important to a platform's success, but software is the most important.

 

[Kerotan]

The GameCube was a powerful home console for a good price and that didn't help it. PS4 had some of the industry's largest franchises (Call of Duty, FIFA, NBA, Battlefield, Assasins Creed) available at launch.

Yes things like price, marketing and hardware capabilities/functionality are important to a platform's success, but software is the most important.

Yes game cube on paper was good but Nintendo has proved it can't compete with PlayStation anymore when they launch a traditional home console. PlayStation stole the market.

N64 sold 33M
Game cube 22M
Wii U 14M

All consoles with reasonable power behind them at launch. The only success was when they launched the wii for a very cheap price and with the motion control idea. They just can't compete head on. If switch wasn't portable it would mean it would mean Nintendo would have to make a separate portable console, split game development and that console would sell most of the sales.

 

[Marty-McFly]

Yes game cube on paper was good but Nintendo has proved it can't compete with PlayStation anymore when they launch a traditional home console. PlayStation stole the market.

N64 sold 33M
Game cube 22M
Wii U 14M

All consoles with reasonable power behind them at launch. The only success was when they launched the wii for a very cheap price and with the motion control idea. They just can't compete head on. If switch wasn't portable it would mean it would mean Nintendo would have to make a separate portable console, split game development and that console would sell most of the sales.

This is kind of irrelevant. Switch is now leading the industry with the hybrid concept, which has taken the lead over stationary consoles, and it would likely be difficult for anyone to enter that space and have the same success, just like Nintendo beat all of their competitors out of the handheld sector. TLDR, the delivery in which you sell your games is not really that important, every console manufacturer seeks the largest user base to sell their software and accumulate greatest profit. In this regard Nintendo is king.

 

[Kerotan]

This is kind of irrelevant. Switch is now leading the industry with the hybrid concept, which has taken the lead over stationary consoles, and it would likely be difficult for anyone to enter that space and have the same success, just like Nintendo beat all of their competitors out of the handheld sector. TLDR, the delivery in which you sell your games is not really that important, every console manufacturer seeks the largest user base to sell their software and accumulate greatest profit. In this regard Nintendo is king.

No doubt Nintendo have found their greatest success by consolidating. However so have Sony by focusing on just 1 approach also. Nintendo don't threaten PlayStation anymore and Nintendo are doing their own thing. Strong future for ahead for both.

 

[Woopah]

Yes game cube on paper was good but Nintendo has proved it can't compete with PlayStation anymore when they launch a traditional home console. PlayStation stole the market.

N64 sold 33M
Game cube 22M
Wii U 14M

All consoles with reasonable power behind them at launch. The only success was when they launched the wii for a very cheap price and with the motion control idea. They just can't compete head on. If switch wasn't portable it would mean it would mean Nintendo would have to make a separate portable console, split game development and that console would sell most of the sales.

That just proves my point though. No matter the strong hardware and price that Nintendo had with N64 and GameCube, they weren't able to compete with PlayStation platforms which took all the third party support. Software was the most important factor in the platforms' success.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

David Gibson just confirmed that the PS5 has sold only 500K software on a 1 million user base, as discussed in previous threads such a low tie ratio leads to the logical conclusion that below 500K of the actual PS5 sold in Japan are actually used by Japanese consumers. My guess is that the actual active Japanese audience on the PS5 is closer to 300K which would mean every owner has bought a game and a half physically.

How is that even remotely a logical conclusion?

They sold 1 million consoles therefore there are 1 million Japanese console consumers.

If you look at the make-up of launch games at the moment for the PS5, PS5 software is not only slim but overwhelmingly appeals to non-Asian markets.

So it would make sense that most PS5 console buyers in Japan are buying PS5s currently and playing PS4 games in higher fidelity.... because... you know... BC is a thing.

 

[Roger Rabbit]

They sold 1 million consoles therefore there are 1 million Japanese console consumers

That's assuming none of them have been scalped for overseas markets.

 

[noshten]

How is that even remotely a logical conclusion?

They sold 1 million consoles therefore there are 1 million Japanese console consumers.

If you look at the make-up of launch games at the moment for the PS5, PS5 software is not only slim but overwhelmingly appeals to non-Asian markets.

So it would make sense that most PS5 console buyers in Japan are buying PS5s currently and playing PS4 games in higher fidelity.... because... you know... BC is a thing.

There have been multiple reports of Japanese PS5s being resold at a higher price not only in China but in many other countries where PS5 supply is low.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

That's assuming none of them have been scalped for overseas markets.

There have been multiple reports of Japanese PS5s being resold at a higher price not only in China but in many other countries where PS5 supply is low.

Assuming the consoles are being re-sold in China and other Asian regions (which you have to assume is going to be true for every console ever), why would that be the reason for a lower physical software attached ratio?

On the other hand, if gamers in China are importing consoles from Japan, why does it somehow make those sales illegitimate? They were sold in Japan. It doesn't really matter where they ended up afterwards.

 

[reksveks]

This week's results are very good for sony, unsurprisingly bad for Nintendo as everyone is waiting for the old version.

 

[Lethal01]

to be honest, based on the charts I have seen, it seems Japanese market only prefer weebo games on console >_>

The rest of the world should follow this trend. Less Uncharteds and more Tales of Arise.

 

[noshten]

Assuming the consoles are being re-sold in China and other Asian regions (which you have to assume is going to be true for every console ever), why would that be the reason for a lower physical software attached ratio?

On the other hand, if gamers in China are importing consoles from Japan, why does it somehow make those sales illegitimate? They were sold in Japan. It doesn't really matter where they ended up afterwards.

The active Japanese user-base is lower than what Famitsu is reporting - thus fewer actual software gets sold, leading to the low tie ratio which if the figures were correct will mean PS5 owners bough 1/2 a game since launch which is an absurdly low tie ratio of 0.5. Even the worst performing consoles have a tie ratio of well above 1 in their first year, PSV had a tie ratio of 2 in a similar period meaning that each PSV owner bought 2 games; while the Wii U had a tie ratio of 3.

Its not the sales are illegitimate, no one is arguing that! The reason why it's important to estimate the active user would allow us to actually know what to expect of future releases. We cannot predict future launches and lifetime sales, if we base our expectations on a console that has sold 1 million units in Japan, when they actual number of active Japanese users in Japan are far lower based on all the evidence in terms of Tie Ratio, regional analysts like Daniel & anecdotes of Japanese PS5 systems being resold in other countries for profit. If the PS5 had any where close to 1 million users in Japan it would allow games like Resident Evil: Village, Lost Judgement & Tales of Arise to easily surpass 100K on the system. With a far lower active user-base we cannot expect upcoming PS5 exclusives like Final Fantasy XVI to really do the numbers of past entries, so the release might get pushed back for the audience to build-up once demand is met in other regions and scalper problem is more limited.

Since we are discussing Japanese sales in these threads this is an important thing to establish, rather than act like the 1 million units sold in Japan all stayed in Japan, when there is plenty of evidence of the opposite.
Until demand is met World Wide we won't know the exact baseline or demand for the system in Japan. The longer this WW demand persists the slower it will take for Software on the PS5 to reach a tie ratio of 1 in terms of physical game sales, which would still be low compared to the PSV & Wii U.

 

[DeuceGamer]

Assuming the consoles are being re-sold in China and other Asian regions (which you have to assume is going to be true for every console ever), why would that be the reason for a lower physical software attached ratio?

On the other hand, if gamers in China are importing consoles from Japan, why does it somehow make those sales illegitimate? They were sold in Japan. It doesn't really matter where they ended up afterwards.

In terms of overall sales it doesn’t really matter, but when you are drilling into the data to know how a product is doing in specific regions it becomes more important.

The sales can occur in Japan, but it may not be indicative of the overall strength of the product in that region, but also may point to increased strength in another region.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

The active Japanese user-base is lower than what Famitsu is reporting - thus fewer actual software gets sold, leading to the low tie ratio which if the figures were correct will mean PS5 owners bough 1/2 a game since launch which is an absurdly low tie ratio of 0.5. Even the worst performing consoles have a tie ratio of well above 1 in their first year, PSV had a tie ratio of 2 in a similar period meaning that each PSV owner bought 2 games; while the Wii U had a tie ratio of 3.

Physical software is all that's being reported here. And so without the digital software sales from the Japanese region, you have an incomplete picture that renders any tie-in ratio based on purely physical sales less meaningful.

And if software sales in the region are poor because there isn't any PS5 software available that appeals to said region, the software tie-in ratio becomes even less meaningful.

Given PS5 is BC, some Japanese users may very well be picking up PS4 games with their PS5 to start with. Making the PS4 software sales figure disproportionately larger.

The wider context is just as important as the numbers themselves and we shouldn't be jumping to knee-jerk conclusions like that other poster was when the picture painted by the number, taken in context, is so opaque.

Its not the sales are illegitimate, no one is arguing that! The reason why it's important to estimate the active user would allow us to actually know what to expect of future releases. We cannot predict future launches and lifetime sales, if we base our expectations on a console that has sold 1 million units in Japan, when they actual number of active Japanese users in Japan are far lower based on all the evidence in terms of Tie Ratio, regional analysts like Daniel & anecdotes of Japanese PS5 systems being resold in other countries for profit. If the PS5 had any where close to 1 million users in Japan it would allow games like Resident Evil: Village, Lost Judgement & Tales of Arise to easily surpass 100K on the system. With a far lower active user-base we cannot expect upcoming PS5 exclusives like Final Fantasy XVI to really do the numbers of past entries, so the release might get pushed back for the audience to build-up once demand is met in other regions and scalper problem is more limited.

Since we are discussing Japanese sales in these threads this is an important thing to establish, rather than act like the 1 million units sold in Japan all stayed in Japan, when there is plenty of evidence of the opposite.
Until demand is met World Wide we won't know the exact baseline or demand for the system in Japan. The longer this WW demand persists the slower it will take for Software on the PS5 to reach a tie ratio of 1 in terms of physical game sales, which would still be low compared to the PSV & Wii U.

In terms of overall sales it doesn’t really matter, but when you are drilling into the data to know how a product is doing in specific regions it becomes more important.

The sales can occur in Japan, but it may not be indicative of the overall strength of the product in that region, but also may point to increased strength in another region.

We have a qualitative report with some anecdotal evidence that some PS5 consoles are making it out to China and other Asian regions.

Can either of you point to any evidence that quantifies the numbers of resold and exported consoles?

My main point is that if consoles are being bought in Japan and exported, then the games should be too at the same rate. That's a fairly logical conclusion. But as the data shows, if the physical software purchased isn't being purchased at the same rate within Japan as the consoles are, then that doesn't automatically mean that the software numbers represent only the number of consoles remaining within the region.... that's the false conclusion made by the other poster that I'm arguing against.

 

[ethomaz]

David Gibson just confirmed that the PS5 has sold only 500K software on a 1 million user base, as discussed in previous threads such a low tie ratio leads to the logical conclusion that below 500K of the actual PS5 sold in Japan are actually used by Japanese consumers. My guess is that the actual active Japanese audience on the PS5 is closer to 300K which would mean every owner has bought a game and a half physically.

Based on the known figures we know that Tales of Arise, Resident Evil: Village, Demon Souls, and Miles Morales are making up around 50% of those sales. Meaning that all other titles on the PS5 combined are around 250K.

For comparison in the same timeframe, PS4 had sold over 2 million software with 5 titles surpassing 100K sales(something no PS5 game has achieved yet in Japan)

How dare a console with 20m+ userbase sells more software than other with 1m+ userbase.

His comparison should be valid if he removed all the software sold to old, brought before PS5/Xbox launch, Switchs… so many software only the new switch users brought the same period?

 

[Woopah]

Physical software is all that's being reported here. And so without the digital software sales from the Japanese region, you have an incomplete picture that renders any tie-in ratio based on purely physical sales less meaningful.

And if software sales in the region are poor because there isn't any PS5 software available that appeals to said region, the software tie-in ratio becomes even less meaningful.

Given PS5 is BC, some Japanese users may very well be picking up PS4 games with their PS5 to start with. Making the PS4 software sales figure disproportionately larger.

The wider context is just as important as the numbers themselves and we shouldn't be jumping to knee-jerk conclusions like that other poster was when the picture painted by the number, taken in context, is so opaque.





We have a qualitative report with some anecdotal evidence that some PS5 consoles are making it out to China and other Asian regions.

Can either of you point to any evidence that quantifies the numbers of resold and exported consoles?

My main point is that if consoles are being bought in Japan and exported, then the games should be too at the same rate. That's a fairly logical conclusion. But as the data shows, if the physical software purchased isn't being purchased at the same rate within Japan as the consoles are, then that doesn't automatically mean that the software numbers represent only the number of consoles remaining within the region.... that's the false conclusion made by the other poster that I'm arguing against.

I don't think its logical to expect software to be exported at the same rate as hardware. Its way way easier to buy a PS5 game than a PS5 console. There much less incentive for people outside Japan to import a game than a console.

For example, if I live in South Korea and I buy a
PS5 from Japan because I can't find one in my country, that doesn't mean I'm going to buy all my games from Japan.

 

[noshten]

His dare a console with 20m+ userbase sells more software than other with 1m+ userbase.

His comparison should be valid if he removed all the software sold to old, brought before PS5/Xbox launch, Switchs… so many software only the new switch users brought the same period?

Comparing the launch of the new consoles to the Switch's launch year isn't going to be painting a much better picture for the health of software sales on the PS5 & XSX

Media Create Top 1000 CY 2017:

01. 3DS - 12.008.236 <37,24%>​

02. PS4 - 10.021.801 <31,08%>​

03. NSW - 7.328.882 <22,73%>​

Gibson Tweet (Software sold since PS5 launched):

1. NSW - 20.000.000
2. PS4 - ?
3. PS5 - 500.000
4. 3DS - ?
5. XSX - 000.001

Both system have been out for a similar amount of time and PS5 has sold about 7% of what Switch managed in the same period.

 

[michaelius]

What software was exactly supposed to sell on PS5 in Japan? Sony own exclusives from western studios aren't big in Japan and the only bigger games it got was RE and Tales pretty much for whole year.

A lot of stuff that was aiming 2021 release got delayed for next year due to covid resulting in a rather dredfull year.

This is partially Sony fault since they didn't prepare any first party titles that would carry it in Japan of course but external factors also had an impact. We will see next year if it picks up or not.

 

[Kerotan]

Fantastic to hear there's big demand in South East Asia. Ps5 will likely sell more in this region and Asia as a whole then any previous PlayStation. Unless the psp beats it.

 

[Roger Rabbit]

Can either of you point to any evidence that quantifies the numbers of resold and exported consoles?

My main point is that if consoles are being bought in Japan and exported, then the games should be too at the same rate. That's a fairly logical conclusion.

No, I don't have any such evidence but you said there weren't any scalpers when you said that 1million consoles sold in Japan meant 1million Japanese consumers. Nobody is saying the sales aren't valid, but I took consumers to mean userbase, who will buy games and peripherals, seeing as that is how Sony will make money put of the PS5. I am sure there are some, seeing as how so many electronics retailers have signs saying that they will refuse to sell to resellers.

I don't see your second paragraph as a logical conclusion. Once someone has a console, they can buy games from anywhere, and even buy digital - they don't have to import them at all. The games are not in short supply.

 

[TheThreadsThatBindUs]

I don't think its logical to expect software to be exported at the same rate as hardware. Its way way easier to buy a PS5 game than a PS5 console. There much less incentive for people outside Japan to import a game than a console.

For example, if I live in South Korea and I buy a
PS5 from Japan because I can't find one in my country, that doesn't mean I'm going to buy all my games from Japan.

Fair point. I didn't consider that. I concede the point then.

 

[ethomaz]

Comparing the launch of the new consoles to the Switch's launch year isn't going to be painting a much better picture for the health of software sales on the PS5 & XSX

Media Create Top 1000 CY 2017:

01. 3DS - 12.008.236 <37,24%>​

02. PS4 - 10.021.801 <31,08%>​

03. NSW - 7.328.882 <22,73%>​

Gibson Tweet (Software sold since PS5 launched):

1. NSW - 20.000.000
2. PS4 - ?
3. PS5 - 500.000
4. 3DS - ?
5. XSX - 000.001

Both system have been out for a similar amount of time and PS5 has sold about 7% of what Switch managed in the same period.

Again you are comparing software sold in a 20m+ userbase with 1m+ userbase… you are not comparing the same period.

To compare the same period you should count only software for consoles that where sold in that period.

 

[Kerotan]

Lads we've a new weekly thread and the ps5 is in beast mode. Get over there and celebrate!

Famitsu Sales: 9/20/21 - 9/26/21

Famitsu has published its estimated physical game software and hardware sales data for Japan for the week of September 20, 2021 to September 2,6 2021. Lost Judgment was the highest selling new release of the week, opening at 111,852 copies on PlayStation 4 and 33,151 copies on PlayStation 5 for...

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