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Final Fantasy: Record Keeper |OT3| When having no onions makes you cry

R

Random Painted HIghway

Member
Lights and Waves said:
3/25, I'm gonna pull!

Here's a thought: how would you all feel if the game added a new difficulty for the story dungeons where you could only use characters from that realm?

I feel like so much of this game is dictated by who you have relics for. I pretty much just stick to my kick-ass A team because of all their relics.
Click to expand...


I also have 3/25, clouds osb bsb and a red hairpin. I do have useful sbs in realm.

I like your idea. I would add that I'm surprised they haven't done a challenge that requires multiple teams that can't trade characters or equips.
 
R

RocketDarkness

Member
Man Called Aerodynamics said:
Pulled Edge's Red Jacket on the FFIV banner 2, that's considered pretty good right? How is Edge as a character compared to other ninjas?
Click to expand...

If you can equip him with suitable magic-boosting gear AND record dive him to get his ninja damage boosts, he's one of the best ninjutsu users(along with Tyro, who can equip rods/staves). Other than that, he's terrible because he has an extremely limited equipment and ability set.

But the Red Jacket is an excellent SB, at least!
 
R

Random Painted HIghway

Member
Man Called Aerodynamics said:
Pulled Edge's Red Jacket on the FFIV banner 2, that's considered pretty good right? How is Edge as a character compared to other ninjas?
Click to expand...

Yuffie, shadow, and thancred have better skill sets. Edge is pretty limited in what he can do. His mag is quite a bit lower than other ninjas when ch may or may not be important depending on buffs. He can't use life siphon like shadow can, but you don't need to reapply haste and last stand all that often. I have this ssb and am looking forward to a steal power/dismissal build for him when the next boss that is susceptible to interrupts is here.

I don't have him triple broken, so I'm not sure what his stats are at 99 compared to the other ninjas. That is a great ssb, he can be worked into either a physical or a magic party if you have a magic thrower or dagger. I pulled two osb throwers in the summoner pull, rinoa and hope, and edge will proabsbly get more use out of those weapons than those two. Just need to decide which one I want to augment.
 
S

Starwolf_UK

Member
Star Falcon said:
Whats the actual event for an FF7 lucky draw? We didn't have it for previous Torments?
Click to expand...
I remember some people on reddit thinking this draw is because we've got the FFVII torment way too early in comparison to when we should have. That also means the featured relics are not all the intended ones to help people doing Cid mission torment.

There are also some that feel the relic pool has a fair number of duds (Cloud's dated Burst and Super for example) and the timing isn't great (near FFVIII, a month from anniversary).
 
M

Man Called Aerodynamics

Member
Random Painted HIghway said:
I don't have him triple broken, so I'm not sure what his stats are at 99 compared to the other ninjas. That is a great ssb, he can be worked into either a physical or a magic party if you have a magic thrower or dagger. I pulled two osb throwers in the summoner pull, rinoa and hope, and edge will proabsbly get more use out of those weapons than those two. Just need to decide which one I want to augment.
Click to expand...

Hmm, interesting. I have Rinoa's OSB also.
 
M

MrDaravon

Member
5/25 but I'm still going to pull since my FF7 RS is one of my weakest with no medicas or BSB's and what I do have is pretty meh (Organics etc). Wouldn't touch it at full price, but at half-off I hate myself enough to go 1/11 for another Organics.
 
C

cpp_is_king

Member
I did some math to see how the Lucky Banner works out based on how many existing relics you have. I was a bit surprised, even when you have a lot of existing relics the odds are pretty good of getting something new. Note this is only checking that at least 1 item is something you don't already have. It's not checking that you get no dupes.

Code: 
Existing Relics   P(>=1 New)
      0            100.00%
      1             99.06%
      2             97.99%
      3             96.78%
      4             95.42%
      5             93.90%
      6             92.21%
      7             90.32%
      8             88.23%
      9             85.92%
     10             83.37%
     11             80.55%
     12             77.46%
     13             74.06%
     14             70.35%
     15             66.28%
     16             61.84%
     17             57.00%
     18             51.73%
     19             46.00%
     20             39.78%
     21             33.03%
     22             25.71%
     23             17.80%
     24              9.24%
     25              0.00%

This is pretty surprising to me, but if anyone wants to see the math let me know.
 
T

thedan001

Member
cpp_is_king said:
I did some math to see how the Lucky Banner works out based on how many existing relics you have. I was a bit surprised, even when you have a lot of existing relics the odds are pretty good of getting something new. Note this is only checking that at least 1 item is something you don't already have. It's not checking that you get no dupes.

Code: 
Existing Relics   P(>=1 New)

     13             74.06%

This is pretty surprising to me, but if anyone wants to see the math let me know.
Click to expand...

Hmm, I like the odds!

Ok, I changed my mind, I'm pulling!

Relics I have:
Code: 
Barret Bracers
Wizer Rod
Wizard Staff
Crystal Comb
Magic Shuriken
Crystal Cross
Green Megaphone
Shortbarrel
Rune Blade
Apocalypse
Masamune-Shinuchi
Cid's Goggles
Hewley Buster

No OSB's even though I did 1-2 pulls in every FFVII banner that has OSB's in the past, maybe tonight will be my night? Cloud is my favorite and the game refuse to give me any.
 
C

cpp_is_king

Member
Praying my math is correct! LOL, watch you get 11/11 all dupes. It still seems high to me, but I guess probability is weird and unintuitive like that.
 
A

Ahnez

Member
cpp_is_king said:
Praying my math is correct! LOL, watch you get 11/11 all dupes. It still seems high to me, but I guess probability is weird and unintuitive like that.
Click to expand...

Gah. I tried to do the calculations by myself to verify, but nope.

The draw itself is a binomial distribution with p = (prob of each 5*/6* orb), and relics/25 is the odds of getting a dupe from each orb.. And this is as far as I could get :p
 
A

Ahnez

Member
friz898 said:
Aren't there little relic simulators or calculators out there for that kind of thing?
Click to expand...

Simulating the draw is super simple, but it will only show isolated instances and thats all.

Calculating the overall probabilities for dupes are not that simple, though
 
C

cpp_is_king

Member
Ahnez said:
Gah. I tried to do the calculations by myself to verify, but nope.

The draw itself is a binomial distribution with p = (prob of each 5*/6* orb), and relics/25 is the odds of getting a dupe from each orb.. And this is as far as I could get :p
Click to expand...

Yea you can't really put it in an easy formula, you have to calculate every single term of the sum by hand. I used an excel spreadsheet.

7zHuPFN.png


Column E is how many relics you have, Row 2 is how many relics you pull. 1 relic is guaranteed.

Column F is simple, it's just the chance of a single relic being a dupe. This varies only based on how many relics you already have. F7 = 1 - (25-E7)/25, and the rest follow a similar pattern.

Row 4 is the probability of the given number of relics being drawn. This is where binomial distribution comes into play, and G4=BINOMDIST(G2-1,10,$C$2,FALSE), while the rest follow a similar pattern.

The large grid in the middle computes the probability that, assuming you draw exactly N relics while having M existing relics, that all of them will be dupes. This is simple, just raise the value in column F to the power in row 2. Fill out the entire grid this way.

Now, to compute the final probability that every item is a dupe (column R), you multiply the values from row 4 to the corresponding value in the row for a given number of existing relics and sum them. R7 = SUMPRODUCT(G$4:Q$4,G7:Q7) and the other values are similar.

Finally, to compute the probability that you have at least 1 new relic, you just subtract the values in column R from 1.
 
B

Balphon

Member
3/11, Cloud OSB and SSBs for Yuffie and Zack.

About as good as I could've expected. Finally got something for Cloud and Yuffie.
 
W

WarAdept

Member
1 dupe (Green Megaphone).

My first sword for the VII realm that isn't the Golden Sword. And Red's great buff SSB. Pull could've gone worse.

7fZXbp3.jpg
 
M

MrDaravon

Member
2/11 both dupes FML

Still no medicas or BSBs for VII, god damn it. One of the two was Organics too, I called it lol.

Seriously though the, odds of getting 2/11 both being dupes when I only had 5 things on the banner is disgustingly low.
 
C

cpp_is_king

Member
Haven't really looked at the analysis to see what the top relics are on this banner, but at first glance this looks pretty goddamned good.

RD6x4S6l.png
 
A

Ahnez

Member
cpp_is_king said:
Yea you can't really put it in an easy formula, you have to calculate every single term of the sum by hand. I used an excel spreadsheet.

Column E is how many relics you have, Row 2 is how many relics you pull. 1 relic is guaranteed.

Column F is simple, it's just the chance of a single relic being a dupe. This varies only based on how many relics you already have. F7 = 1 - (25-E7)/25, and the rest follow a similar pattern.

Row 4 is the probability of the given number of relics being drawn. This is where binomial distribution comes into play, and G4=BINOMDIST(G2-1,10,$C$2,FALSE), while the rest follow a similar pattern.

The large grid in the middle computes the probability that, assuming you draw exactly N relics while having M existing relics, that all of them will be dupes. This is simple, just raise the value in column F to the power in row 2. Fill out the entire grid this way.

Now, to compute the final probability that every item is a dupe (column R), you multiply the values from row 4 to the corresponding value in the row for a given number of existing relics and sum them. R7 = SUMPRODUCT(G$4:Q$4,G7:Q7) and the other values are similar.

Finally, to compute the probability that you have at least 1 new relic, you just subtract the values in column R from 1.
Click to expand...

Ah, I think I understand..

I was trying to write a formula for it, and I got this, the numbers are different from yours though

Probabilities are hard

edit:

cpp_is_king said:
Haven't really looked at the analysis to see what the top relics are on this banner, but at first glance this looks pretty goddamned good.

RD6x4S6l.png
Click to expand...

My draw was a nerfed version of yours' >_>

I got the megaphone and Aerith Burst
 
B

Balphon

Member
cpp_is_king said:
Haven't really looked at the analysis to see what the top relics are on this banner, but at first glance this looks pretty goddamned good.
Click to expand...

Aerith's BSB is an okay healer burst.

Cait's SSB is AoE full breakdown with bonus regen which is pretty meh but saves you the slot on Multi Break (he has a regular SB that's better, stupidly enough).

Tifa's BSB is a pretty standard physical elemental burst that is ironically almost totally useless in this Torment.

Pretty good overall.
 
C

cpp_is_king

Member
Ahnez said:
Ah, I think I understand..

I was trying to write a formula for it, and I got this, the numbers are different from yours though

Probabilities are hard

edit:
Click to expand...

Turns out you can write a formula for it! But there's a few problems in yours.

1) Where does .05625 come from? It should be .14 (the probability of drawing a relic)
2) The sum should run from 1 to 11, not from 0 to 10.You can obviously translate between either, but your current sum I believe is not treating the 1 free pull as guaranteed. Getting the exponents and indices right is really tricky because of the free relic.

If I use this one it matches up with my results. But you need to replace the numerator in 1/25 to be the number of relics you have.
 
A

Ahnez

Member
cpp_is_king said:
Turns out you can write a formula for it! But there's a few problems in yours.

1) Where does .05625 come from? It should be .14 (the probability of drawing a relic)
2) The sum should run from 1 to 11, not from 0 to 10.You can obviously translate between either, but your current sum I believe is not treating the 1 free pull as guaranteed. Getting the exponents and indices right is really tricky because of the free relic.

If I use this one it matches up with my results. But you need to replace the numerator in 1/25 to be the number of relics you have.
Click to expand...

Yeah, the 0.05625 is likely wrong, I just googled and took the first one lol

But I believe the 14% is not correct for 11-pulls. I remember something about it being lower (about 13% iirc), probably due to the 1 guaranteed

But my logic is, the sum of the probs for each possible amount of random relics (hence 0~10) times the prob for all dupes (hence relics/25 ^ i+1 )
 
K

Kenai

Member
I was at 7/25 so decided to give it a go.

Got Sephiroth BSB (I'm not trying to spell that sh*t), Organics and Light Rod (dupe)

I'll take any new BSB, especially since this is a Piercing one (future proof, huzzah), and Organics is free stats on Cloud even if the actual SSB is pretty dated.
 
C

cpp_is_king

Member
Ahnez said:
Yeah, the 0.05625 is likely wrong, I just googled and took the first one lol

But I believe the 14% is not correct for 11-pulls. I remember something about it being lower (about 13% iirc), probably due to the 1 guaranteed

But my logic is, the sum of the probs for each possible amount of random relics (hence 0~10) times the prob for all dupes (hence relics/25 ^ i+1 )
Click to expand...

The 14% number only applies to the 10 not guaranteed relics. Even though the sum runs from 1 to 11 the binomial coefficient is still choosing from 10.

Think about it like this. The probability of drawing 5 relics from an 11 pull is the same as drawing 4 relics at 14% out of 10

In any case, just change .14 to whatever you think it is, like.13, and it should still work
 
A

Ahnez

Member
Kenai said:
I was at 7/25 so decided to give it a go.

Got Sephiroth BSB (I'm not trying to spell that sh*t), Organics and Light Rod (dupe)

I'll take any new BSB, especially since this is a Piercing one (future proof, huzzah), and Organics is free stats on Cloud even if the actual SSB is pretty dated.
Click to expand...

I was secretly hoping for Sephy burst. That 2 hit 12.25x def ignoring command

On a side note, I have 7 bursts now, and not a single one for a male character :lol

cpp_is_king said:
The 14% number only applies to the 10 not guaranteed relics. Even though the sum runs from 1 to 11 the binomial coefficient is still choosing from 10. And the second term of the product is 0.

In any case, just change .14 to whatever you think it is, like.13, and it should still work
Click to expand...

Ah well, the results are very close to yours, so I guess its okay now
 
K

Kenai

Member
firehawk12 said:
Is there anything worth getting in the FF7 lucky banner? Not sure if I should bother drawing for it.
Click to expand...

There's good stuff on it yea. There's some very dated stuff too for sure. Unless you have tons of dupes I'd roll, not gonna get better bang for your buck on a half-off banner for such a common realm with so many potential BSBs.
 
B

BassForever

Member
Got sephie's old ssb black materia and aerith's bsb, both new for me but on characters I already have relics for. Sephies I guess is utility for things vulnerable to sap, aerith's is a huge upgrade over her of medica.
 
E

evangd007

Member
Lucky Draw go!

1/11 - Magic Shuriken

Well, now I have 2 BSBs for FFVII I guess (other being Wizer Rod). Maybe with this I can avoid pulling on the next FFVII banners since everyone says they stink.
 
F

firehawk12

Subete no aware
Kenai said:
There's good stuff on it yea. There's some very dated stuff too for sure. Unless you have tons of dupes I'd roll, not gonna get better bang for your buck on a half-off banner for such a common realm with so many potential BSBs.
Click to expand...
Welp, did it and got 4 SBs I don't think I'll ever use. C'est la vie. lol
 
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