I really can't comment on my reasoning too much, but generally speaking, it's a sucky and desperate tactic, IMO.
The problem with gauging anything by player post counts is that you are going to have people who post way more than others, and it skews the entire perception of what "a normal range of posting" should be. The rules we've been using call for people to obligatorily post once per day phase. That's once every four days or so.
Of course, it's good if people participate more than that, but we're seeing the overall post counts in these games creep up each gen. I'd say we're easily going to reach 3x the posts in these games as the first game, and yet I don't feel like that first game was lacking in posts or discussion.
Post frequency doesn't mean much. There might be more substance to the posts of someone with 1/4 the posts of the top posters. Aside from people being busy, there might be different motivations for why someone would want to deliberately stay quiet - it's not always good or bad. People can reason it either way, so it's a not a clear indicator.
It's just clumsy, meta-game reasoning.
I completely understand and I don't think that a post count by itself is necessarily a meaningful statistic, but I do think that (depending on the context) it can be indicative of behavior that should be examined.
It's clumsy, but I think much less harmful than actual meta-game analysis, which could easily ruin the game. Again, just because it is not (by itself) indicative of suspicious behavior doesn't mean the statistic cannot be used successfully in combination with other metrics or in context.