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Gafia 2: The Bride of Gafia |Mafia OT| One Wedding, Many Funerals
- Thread starter RetroMG
- Start date
either way , we have to kill him
Even over the Arsonist?
No, I don't trust Camjo at all, let alone with my life. I think we should lynch camjo and based on the flip look at Launch tomorrow. I am starting to seriously doubt he really has that shuffle power.
The fun thing of a jailor is that they have to choose how to play the role: they can either try and protect people they think are town, or try and block people that they think are scum. Bronx-man was confirmed town, yeah, however he also had a reasonable useful power, and maybe the jailor was afraid that blocking Bronx during the night would also remove the gossip chat. So they could have chosen to go and try to block scum instead of protecting a towny.
What would that accomplish? We would be wasting our jailor on blocking/protecting a suspicious someone with a weird claim for the chance of getting scum. That doesn't sound like a great deal to me.
I remember him saying something in the line of "there are parts of my role I haven't told yet". Did he went back on that yet or not?
Also, another point I want to talk about: Ourobolus. I was ok with ourobolus since he was doused and thus was 100 % invested in hunting for the arsonist. However, if we manage to kill the arsonist, he could become a problem. He needs to give anyone a drink, and currently out of 15 living players (not counting himself), he only gave drinks to 4 of them. And he apparently can't give any tonight. So, if we assume he will manage to give two drinks to people during the next nights, and NONE of the people who already got drinks will die (both very unlikely imo), that gives him:
day 5: 4/13
day 6: 6/11
day 7: 8/9
day 8: he wins.
That is looking at the best case scenario for him, which is quite unlikely. So it will probably take him longer then day 8 to win. Which means that if we keep doing well an hitting scum, eventually he will have to try and prolong the game. After hitting 3 scum, it could be that we would be one scum lynch away from winning the game, and thus ourob losing. When that happens, I doubt Ourob will continue to help us scum hunt, especially if he gave drinks to the main scum suspects at that point. He could become a problem at that point. Of course, the reverse is also true and if we start to suck and a lot of townies suddenly die, Ourob will have to hunt scum to prevent them from winning too soon. However, I would like to think the first scenario is more likely, and when that happens we would either have to lynch him, or ignore the things he will say. I would like to hear peoples thoughts about this potential problem.
I'm lazy so I just check for simple patterns. I've looked up the interactions between Wee and Launch and this is what I've found.
It's subtle and came at the end of a long post with a vote on someone else, but Wee was active and didn't reply to this.
------------------------------------
I looked at Kalor, but there were very few interactions with Launch. He quoted him just three times. One thing of note is that he trusted Launch's D1 claim.
This is some back and forth which is good. The main issue I have is how shallow it feels and Wee does this weird thing where she says she kind of town reads Launch ("I want to move you [...] to my slightly town list").
This one is also hard to make anything out of. Scum throwing some at their scum mates is normal, but at the same time Launch replies. Not sure how common it is, but I've found that scum often ignore reads by scum mates which makes sense given they know those won't suddenly turn on them.
It's subtle and came at the end of a long post with a vote on someone else, but Wee was active and didn't reply to this.
I also can't help but notice Launch used the wrong pronoun...
------------------------------------
I looked at Kalor, but there were very few interactions with Launch. He quoted him just three times. One thing of note is that he trusted Launch's D1 claim.
I need to go through Weemad's and Kalor's posts during D2 in greater detail, but this is what bothers me now in relation to Salva:
Firstly, I'm going to make the assumption that Kalor only get to know the names of the Scum members, not their possible Power Roles. It's possible that he knew their roles too, but I sort of doubt this at the moment.
So then. What happened in relation to votes during D2 with weemad and Kalor?
Weemad: Had their vote on Scrafty for a long time. Only unvotes at post 1175, and votes for Kalor at the same post. Since Kalor flipped Hidden Partner, we know that Weemad must have thought Kalor to be town. The justification for the town is pretty flimsy, at best, mostly questioning why Kalor had voted for RNH. At the time Weemad put this vote on Kalor, they had just received a second vote from CzarTim again, putting them in danger. So voting for Kalor made sense, trying to push for "town" to be lynch candidate instead.
At that point of time, Salva had two votes as well (Terra and me), so voting for Salva would be in theory just as beneficial for Weemad, as it was to vote for Kalor. Later on Ouro and Fire vote for Salva, and I unvote from him to weemad, which puts Salva at 3. Then votes from Launch and Xam suddenly push Salva to 5, versus weemad's 3 votes.
So far so good for weemad, who has a vote on Kalor. However, then the surge of votes to Weemad happen during the end of day. Even when the situation looks bad, weemad keeps his vote on Kalor until there is two minutes remaining, while it was pretty apparent that Kalor won't be lynched (Role-claim and all) for a while at that point. Why shift his vote to Salva only at the last moment, why not earlier?
It's possible that Weemad was holding to the hope that Kalor would be lynched instead of them or Salva. But this is little shaky argument, but...
--
Kalor: Kalor is an interesting case, now that we know he was the hidden partner and all. He had a vote on Nin, and later on RNH. Weemad called out Kalor from the RNH vote, but we know that weemad didn't know they were on the same side at the time. Kalor then unvotes at post 1177, multiple hours before day ends. He claims the commuter, and loses some of the heat on him.
However, what happened in the end? At the time of this post, there is 4 minutes remaining of the day, and Nin is desperately asking for people not to vote on Salva:
So then... why didn't Kalor vote for Salva? There was lot of suspicion on him at the time, so voting for Salva wouldn't have been exactly a scum-tell, even though right at those minutes there was lot of push to vote for weemad instead. Kalor was not going to vote for Weemad, he wouldnt have wanted to vote out a scum. But why not Salva?
I propose a possibility: If Kalor didnt know what the PR roles of the Scum were, he woulnt have known that weemad was actually the Scum Godfather. If Salva was scum in this situation, Kalor would only see a situation of scum vs scum. He wouldnt know which one to save, but more importantly, he woulnt want to give his scum partners mixed messages by helping lynch one of them. So instead he decided to stay out of the conflict, and wait it out, possibly hoping that the scum would notice him being the hidden partner. He did put out the oh Id want to vote for weemad but I cant, pls give me town credit when he flips scum anyway post, so that he would look less suspicious.
But even still, why wouldnt Kalor vote for Salva, if Salva were town?
Firstly, I'm going to make the assumption that Kalor only get to know the names of the Scum members, not their possible Power Roles. It's possible that he knew their roles too, but I sort of doubt this at the moment.
So then. What happened in relation to votes during D2 with weemad and Kalor?
Weemad: Had their vote on Scrafty for a long time. Only unvotes at post 1175, and votes for Kalor at the same post. Since Kalor flipped Hidden Partner, we know that Weemad must have thought Kalor to be town. The justification for the town is pretty flimsy, at best, mostly questioning why Kalor had voted for RNH. At the time Weemad put this vote on Kalor, they had just received a second vote from CzarTim again, putting them in danger. So voting for Kalor made sense, trying to push for "town" to be lynch candidate instead.
At that point of time, Salva had two votes as well (Terra and me), so voting for Salva would be in theory just as beneficial for Weemad, as it was to vote for Kalor. Later on Ouro and Fire vote for Salva, and I unvote from him to weemad, which puts Salva at 3. Then votes from Launch and Xam suddenly push Salva to 5, versus weemad's 3 votes.
So far so good for weemad, who has a vote on Kalor. However, then the surge of votes to Weemad happen during the end of day. Even when the situation looks bad, weemad keeps his vote on Kalor until there is two minutes remaining, while it was pretty apparent that Kalor won't be lynched (Role-claim and all) for a while at that point. Why shift his vote to Salva only at the last moment, why not earlier?
It's possible that Weemad was holding to the hope that Kalor would be lynched instead of them or Salva. But this is little shaky argument, but...
--
Kalor: Kalor is an interesting case, now that we know he was the hidden partner and all. He had a vote on Nin, and later on RNH. Weemad called out Kalor from the RNH vote, but we know that weemad didn't know they were on the same side at the time. Kalor then unvotes at post 1177, multiple hours before day ends. He claims the commuter, and loses some of the heat on him.
However, what happened in the end? At the time of this post, there is 4 minutes remaining of the day, and Nin is desperately asking for people not to vote on Salva:
So then... why didn't Kalor vote for Salva? There was lot of suspicion on him at the time, so voting for Salva wouldn't have been exactly a scum-tell, even though right at those minutes there was lot of push to vote for weemad instead. Kalor was not going to vote for Weemad, he wouldnt have wanted to vote out a scum. But why not Salva?
I propose a possibility: If Kalor didnt know what the PR roles of the Scum were, he woulnt have known that weemad was actually the Scum Godfather. If Salva was scum in this situation, Kalor would only see a situation of scum vs scum. He wouldnt know which one to save, but more importantly, he woulnt want to give his scum partners mixed messages by helping lynch one of them. So instead he decided to stay out of the conflict, and wait it out, possibly hoping that the scum would notice him being the hidden partner. He did put out the oh Id want to vote for weemad but I cant, pls give me town credit when he flips scum anyway post, so that he would look less suspicious.
But even still, why wouldnt Kalor vote for Salva, if Salva were town?
I think that Camjo's flip is going to give us a better idea of Launch. Also, if my guess on Launch's power is correct, it could point out to either town or scum.
Why should I trust the person who claimed arsonist? Also, I'm waiting for your response on my question, nin.
Xamtheking
Member
Why not push him, see what he tells us, and then make a judgement call on the information he gives?
He hasn't seemed to care too much about the push on him so far, though. That is little bothersome.
Xamtheking
Member
Almost like he's coming up with a fake claim
Should I just say what I think his role is before he has time to do that, then? I kinda want to hear what tyson thinks about it, though.
I already responded mate
Xamtheking
Member
He's not town or maf, neither would want to turbo themselves
He's arsy-parsey
You sure, nyou answered to this, nin?
Xamtheking
Member
Go fucking nuts, fam.
Scribbling something down because I will be a bit busy the next few hours.
His interactions D2 with Wee seemed somewhat more involved than had he been scum, but at the same time Launch is an active player and way too little for me to make a good town read. The one thing I noticed though was how Wee always looked like the scummy one with flimsy logic an not following up on accusations.
I think one thing to take note of with Wee's behaviour on D2 is whether or not they knew how close they were to being lynched. The lack of a fake claim really bothers me (as in I can't figure out their rationale). On one hand I can maybe understand it if they were trying to get Scrafty to check them (she also seemed scared of one of her targets being night killed) and a confirmed townie with a role could look especially scummy in the late game.
I'm just not very sure. My gut isn't giving him a great read because I had a fairly strong town read of him in Batman and the same isn't the case here. He's too certain. I don't have much else though. I haven't pushed him much after D1 because he didn't seem afraid of sticking out, but I don't like putting stock in that because the read is so flimsy and I town read Wee for the same reasons D2.
His interactions D2 with Wee seemed somewhat more involved than had he been scum, but at the same time Launch is an active player and way too little for me to make a good town read. The one thing I noticed though was how Wee always looked like the scummy one with flimsy logic an not following up on accusations.
I think one thing to take note of with Wee's behaviour on D2 is whether or not they knew how close they were to being lynched. The lack of a fake claim really bothers me (as in I can't figure out their rationale). On one hand I can maybe understand it if they were trying to get Scrafty to check them (she also seemed scared of one of her targets being night killed) and a confirmed townie with a role could look especially scummy in the late game.
I'm probably making mountains out of molehills, but I came across this while trying to read Launch and found it interesting because they're aware they're a lynch target. I'm just wondering how dire they thought the threat was.[...]
If I've got to be voted out, so be it. But it gets to be a lot of mislynches. Anyway, I can't add anything to my play record in this game. Either you think I've been sincere, or you don't. But I promise, I've been more sincere than in batman.I'm offering real reads and not pretending to make mistakes. I may be making actual mistakes though.
Just checked and I can confirm I am not a dumbass, so I'm not town. Also, me being mafia makes no sense and is unsurprisingly a theory being pushed most heavily by... Launch. I'm arsonist that wants to townside. BELIEVE IT!
Really the TLDR is that I don't feel confident in any read on Launch. I think your judgement would be better than mine.
FWIW if Launch went against any of these I would vote Launch unless we get some new info.
Fire for his behavior and calm post next to Wee.
Burb for pushing a vote on Wee.
Terra and Nin for sealing Wee's fate.
CzarTim for general tone (weak read) and interactions with Wee.
Ourobolus for his shade of Wee, don't remember it in detail though.
Xam for his behavior, he's been quite active and aggressively pushing people.
And with Time, Seath, Roy and BSP I'm missing a proper read so I could still vote Launch.
So in comparison with the rest I guess I scum read him.
FWIW if Launch went against any of these I would vote Launch unless we get some new info.
Fire for his behavior and calm post next to Wee.
Burb for pushing a vote on Wee.
Terra and Nin for sealing Wee's fate.
CzarTim for general tone (weak read) and interactions with Wee.
Ourobolus for his shade of Wee, don't remember it in detail though.
Xam for his behavior, he's been quite active and aggressively pushing people.
And with Time, Seath, Roy and BSP I'm missing a proper read so I could still vote Launch.
So in comparison with the rest I guess I scum read him.
I doubt you are scum either. It would be completely bonkers for Scum to claim arsonist at a point where there is 2/5 (assumedly) scum dead in just three days.
But I also feel like you are hiding something from us. Why would arsonist come forward like this? Nobody was suspicious of your being arsonist.
Xamtheking
Member
Biggest lie so far this thread
Pop being a nice guy (godfather) and Xam being a disruptor (don't remember the role name) seemed a bit less obvious. Pop I can kinda get because he was town read as scum in FF.
Palmer as cop and you as a gossip makes a lot more sense.
Of the claimed roles yours makes sense, the ultron one also makes sense and I don't quite remember the other motion detector. Salva pot pulling the fire alarm makes sense as does the two neutrals.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
"Narrative." Stating reasons he could be scum instead of arsonist. Right.
You're wrong, nin. So damn wrong. lol
Here's the thing. I think weemad and scum, at one point, thought I was the lost partner. That would explain this interaction.
Ask me whatever you want.
2 votes is a push?
That's what I love about gafia. You get a few votes on you and you freak out, "you're overreacting and you're scum." You get a few votes on you and you don't react, "why aren't you reacting? scum." Come on now, Burb.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Also, weemad is a female? I've never seen a pronoun attached to her name. Sorry.
Even putting my good intentions aside, purely from a logistical standpoint it makes a lot more sense for me to try and townside for a cheesy tie win than actually attempt to douse everybody while there's motion detectors and shit running around. That's about the long and short of it.
tru
Xamtheking
Member
K Launch
So let's recap:
You didn't receive any notification that you were blocked in any way, right?
You also used your power on D1, but it didn't take affect until N1.
You're one-shot
Did you say you had a second part of your role at one point?
So let's recap:
You didn't receive any notification that you were blocked in any way, right?
You also used your power on D1, but it didn't take affect until N1.
You're one-shot
Did you say you had a second part of your role at one point?
He forgot to mention that he was mafia
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
I'm not sure what the protocol for gender neutral is. It?
Also, I missed the two other votes. What would you have me do? You seem to have your own ideas about what's going on.
Correct.
Correct.
Correct.
I did, but it seems like it's going to be irrelevant regardless of the outcome.
I have an idea what your role really is. I just don't know if it's scum or town role.
Xamtheking
Member
Why ask a question I know the answer to
Um
Launch
You said to ask you anything
So I'm asking you now
What's the second part of your role
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
I was never in control of which table was chosen. It was chosen for me and I was told the result.
For Scrafty role playing is high up there, but I'm not sure how that would work in a role.
She has made some of the most accurate scum reads of any town in the games I've seen, but the cop is dead.
Role playing is the key. Scrafty plays different roles in every game.
What's not to say Launch does not have different 'roles' aka. 1-shot powers?
1-shot night time table scramble that is most likely to mess up with town roles seems really powerless thing on its own.
They or maybe the more clunky he or she. It is inanimate and cannot refer to a person.
Xamtheking
Member
Dude are you trying to kill me
I need to get out of this thread
I already said I was allergic to bullshit
And this is as bullshit as it comes
That completely and utterly negates any potential utility your role would otherwise have because you're not even able to choose the table you perform your power on
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Xamtheking
Member
If your power really worked like that, the best thing to do would have been to lie about the table you selected, because you would know you didn't actually know if the table you said was being selected for the power, therefore causing much scum confusion
i must admit after the kalor flip i trust xam's bs-sensing nostrils more than before
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
I never said beforehand which one I chose. People pressed me for an answer at D2 start, so I gave it to them.
Xamtheking
Member
Yes, I know you didn't; prior to your most recent revelation, you could make the case that it was to prevent scum from circumventing the power.
However, with this new piece of information from you, which states that you had no effect on which table got chosen, you would have had no reason to not provide a fake table claim, as scum wouldn't have actually gained anything from it since the end result would be a 50/50 chance between tables
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Ok. That's not going to change how it went down.