-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Gafia 2: The Bride of Gafia |Mafia OT| One Wedding, Many Funerals
- Thread starter RetroMG
- Start date
Technically Retro could have won, I think. He just had to kill one town and one scum with his three shots.
So you think a camjo lynch is better?
I think it could be, but if he's neutral, then I agree with the Bear we should focus on hunting scum.
Sorry, I meant the first Mafia game on GAF, not the first "GAFia" game... >.>
He was already close to the cutting board and could have been a scum making a gambit. Either way an arsonist is one of the most dangerous neutral roles and if he flips what he said he is that could give us a reason to doubt Launch's claim. And end up benefiting our scum hunt.
I agree with Burb that I don't think Camjo is scum (D2 behavior was too weird), but I don't want to ignore that possibility.
That makes sense, I see the argument.
I do think lynching a potentially dangerous player to town is better than potentially lynching another player who could be town.
However, I am getting a null read from launchpad truth be told. I've played with him before and his style seems similar?
I dunno. I need to gather my thoughts some more.
Oh, gotcha. Well Camjo hasn't claimed doctor yet, so...
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
full disclosure: I also want to play stellaris in peace tomorrow
My man.
To the votes on me, you guys are wasting time
Xamtheking
Member
That's not something a townie would say
Ouro, Roy, if I can convince Camjo to not ignite tonight, would you vote out Launch?
sigh
As weird as Launch has been playing, I just can't trust an arsonist running around. Launch is on my list for the next phase though.
Ok I read back and I am surprised Czar wants to turbo so hard, the day has not been boring at all, if anything activity was stupid high and there is very little fluff in there, I'll like to see more days like this.
Second, burb called me out saying I am coasting, eh, I hate making excuses for myself, but might as well.. Yesterday I was travelling by airplane and car and we are now on Saltillo, Coahuila, celebrating Mother's Day, its been fun so far, saw a real bear (Not that burb bullshit =P)
Anyway, as to my theory.
So why did both Ouro's drinks didn't went through on the first and second day? They did today, exactly how Ouro claimed they will. No one blocked them, no one intercepted them.
Also, on day 1 and day 2 the dousing happened without trouble, but on day 3 it got blocked.
So, if we believe both claims to be true:
On day 1, One Drink went through, One douse went through, and one drink was blocked
On day 2 One Drink went through, One douse went through, and one drink was blocked
On day 3, Two Drinks went through, one douse was blocked
But, if there is a blocker of some type, then this makes no sense. If the blocker targeted Ouro, then both drinks should have been blocked, not one.
I think the answer is obvious, the blocker is protecting its targets from other actions.
roy was doused n1, ouro n2
n1 Ouro targeted Xam and RobotNinjaHornets and Xam got its drink, robot didn't.
n2 Ouro targeted CzarTim and Fireblend, Czar got his drink, but Fireblend didn't
My theory is that this protector of sorts targeted Robot in n1, Fireblend in n2.
And that camjo is lying about trying to ignite, if he is the arsonist, then he tried to douse someone else and that guy went blocked.
This will also explain why no drinks where blocked today, since Ouro clearly stated who would get them and no one got out of their way to block either. This makes me think this blocker is either town or neutral.
BUT.
This is where the drinking worries me.
Ouro mentions that he has to rest so he can get people to drink again. Now... this makes no sense to me balance-wise. He gets to get two people to drink, but then rest? What is the point of that? If his role was to just get everyone else get drunk and survive, then his role is hard enough as it is, without even counting the fact that they have to be sitting right next to each other and in his table.
I think he is covering something. There has to be more to his role, and I don't like it. If Retro got out of his way to give the role a downside, then I think the role might not be actually good for town.
I think we should lynch Ouro. I fear that letting him fulfill his win condition is also going to make town lose.
Second, burb called me out saying I am coasting, eh, I hate making excuses for myself, but might as well.. Yesterday I was travelling by airplane and car and we are now on Saltillo, Coahuila, celebrating Mother's Day, its been fun so far, saw a real bear (Not that burb bullshit =P)
Anyway, as to my theory.
So why did both Ouro's drinks didn't went through on the first and second day? They did today, exactly how Ouro claimed they will. No one blocked them, no one intercepted them.
Also, on day 1 and day 2 the dousing happened without trouble, but on day 3 it got blocked.
So, if we believe both claims to be true:
On day 1, One Drink went through, One douse went through, and one drink was blocked
On day 2 One Drink went through, One douse went through, and one drink was blocked
On day 3, Two Drinks went through, one douse was blocked
But, if there is a blocker of some type, then this makes no sense. If the blocker targeted Ouro, then both drinks should have been blocked, not one.
I think the answer is obvious, the blocker is protecting its targets from other actions.
roy was doused n1, ouro n2
n1 Ouro targeted Xam and RobotNinjaHornets and Xam got its drink, robot didn't.
n2 Ouro targeted CzarTim and Fireblend, Czar got his drink, but Fireblend didn't
My theory is that this protector of sorts targeted Robot in n1, Fireblend in n2.
And that camjo is lying about trying to ignite, if he is the arsonist, then he tried to douse someone else and that guy went blocked.
This will also explain why no drinks where blocked today, since Ouro clearly stated who would get them and no one got out of their way to block either. This makes me think this blocker is either town or neutral.
BUT.
This is where the drinking worries me.
Ouro mentions that he has to rest so he can get people to drink again. Now... this makes no sense to me balance-wise. He gets to get two people to drink, but then rest? What is the point of that? If his role was to just get everyone else get drunk and survive, then his role is hard enough as it is, without even counting the fact that they have to be sitting right next to each other and in his table.
I think he is covering something. There has to be more to his role, and I don't like it. If Retro got out of his way to give the role a downside, then I think the role might not be actually good for town.
I think we should lynch Ouro. I fear that letting him fulfill his win condition is also going to make town lose.
Ok. I didn't claim until D3.
You're telling me that the blocker had the foresight to pick, out of 22 people (or 11, if the blocker is table-specific) the exact target I would give a drink to? And if we're believing Launch, that is on top of the switching shenanigans on D1?
And then they did it AGAIN on D2, when there were 20 people (or 10 per table)?
There's a theory I have, but I really don't want to say what it is, because I really think that would be bad for town. It does involve a little bit of the luck I mentioned above, but I think I have an idea of what is going on.
You're telling me that the blocker had the foresight to pick, out of 22 people (or 11, if the blocker is table-specific) the exact target I would give a drink to? And if we're believing Launch, that is on top of the switching shenanigans on D1?
And then they did it AGAIN on D2, when there were 20 people (or 10 per table)?
There's a theory I have, but I really don't want to say what it is, because I really think that would be bad for town. It does involve a little bit of the luck I mentioned above, but I think I have an idea of what is going on.
or just let me ignite him ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
ooh mysterious
but if u didn't want to tell us u wouldn't have brought it up
spill it fam
omg
WE HAVE A JAILOR
HOW ELSE COULD A SPECIFIC TARGET OF MINE BE PROTECTED, BUT NOT THE OTHER ONE (MEANING I WASN'T BLOCKED), AND THEN ON D3, CAMJO TRIED TO IGNITE BUT COULDN'T (MEANING HE WAS BLOCKED)
What are the odds, right? Also Robot and Fire are not that great targets for a protective role to target them.
Also, Ouro, why didn't you tried to target RNH again?
If this was the case then the other ignited player would have died, also doesn't jailed people get a notification?
No, if Camjo himself was jailed, he couldn't have ignited, which was what I said.
As for jailing, AFAIK they would basically get a message as if they were roleblocked, if they have a PR that returns information. If my target was jailed, I wouldn't get a notification, since I don't get notifications anyway.
Yet your theory seems to revolve around that same "leap" in logic.
But then, again, RNH and Fire would have said something, and I doubt both would lie about getting blocked.
If they don't have PRs they most likely wouldn't know.
That kind of makes sense, but at the same time I'm not sure why they would protect me last night instead of Bronx-Man, the only 100% clear townie.
Well, I am trying to figure out how exactly two of your drinks got lost, do you have a better idea?
Can RNH and Fireblend confirm or deny they got any kind of notification on d1 and d2?
No idea what their reasoning was, for what it's worth. Bronx and Scrafty both would have been good targets to protect (although Scrafty would have been roleblocked as well, so I can understand that logic at least).
I seriously don't have a better idea. A jailor is the only thing that makes sense to me given what happened to Camjo and I.
Xamtheking
Member
Then why not just let the jailor jail camjo again tonight
I'm sure we can get by with the jailor maybe losing a tiny bit of value in exchange for lynching scum again today
I'm sure we can get by with the jailor maybe losing a tiny bit of value in exchange for lynching scum again today
Well, even taking that into account... I still think your role can be dangerous to town, the limits on it tells me that its designed so you have to win by yourself.
Xamtheking
Member
Dude can I have whatever you're smoking
I don't know how to say it any more clearly - either I...
- Achieve my win condition before the end of the game and leave
- The game ends without me drinking with everyone, and I lose
The way my role is designed leads me to believe that at some point we'll all be sitting at the same table once we get down to a certain amount of players.
Then why not just have you give 2 drinks at a time everyday? Having you rest every few days seems like such an unfair rule for this kind of game.
Are you obligated to give out both drinks? What happens when all players on your current table already have drinks?
Yes, I have to give out drinks.
No, I can't only give out one.
I waste a turn giving drinks to people who already have them.
I don't know what you want me to tell you. I didn't put this table-restriction on myself.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Oh, yeah. I mean, I've only said those exact words in almost every game I've been in and I've never been scum, but sure, that's not something a townie would say.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
You guys really seem to be jumping all over the place. I'm going to have to read this more thoroughly tomorrow
Xamtheking
Member
I've personally never seen you in a game where you had a lot of votes on you at any given time, so I might not have run into that.
Regardless, in this context, I feel it's anti-town, trying to push a Camjo-lynch narrative.
The odds depend a bit on the whether or not the protective role can target people on different tables. It should be (2 * 2) / (n1 * n2) with n being the number of players that can be hit each respective night and 2 because the protective role could hit either of Ouro's targets.
The "OR" is if this protector cannot self target.
So can target all tables -> (2 * 2) / (21 * 19) = 4/399 = ~1% OR 4/360 = ~1.1%
Or only the same table -> (2 * 2) / (10 * 9) = 4/90 = ~4.4% OR 4/72 = ~5.5%
I agree it is a little weird they hit Camjo and not Bronx yesterday. Maybe they felt confident Camjo was scum and thought they'd stop the kill.
I'm a little doubtful about the Jailor theory. It would explain the drinks, but it still would mean that the jailor was somehow able to target drink receiver twice in a row, which while possible, seems a bit too implausible.
Also, it would mean that our possibly only healing power targeted RNH/Seath and Fireblend. I feel it's little doubtful, although I could see the Jailor thinking Fire is scum after d2, and trying to block scum PR/Kill that way. Still, the theory is bit too leap of luck and faith.
Also, it would mean that our possibly only healing power targeted RNH/Seath and Fireblend. I feel it's little doubtful, although I could see the Jailor thinking Fire is scum after d2, and trying to block scum PR/Kill that way. Still, the theory is bit too leap of luck and faith.
I should add that the latter two numbers assume the protector was on the same table. Remove that assumption by dividing both percentages by 4 so ~1.1% and ~1.4%.
Do you believe Ouro? If we do something should have happened with those drinks.
Trust me he is scum. Much higher than you on my list aswell.
I think RNH is the easiest to explain. It was N1 so it's hard to know who would be targeted or where suspicious. They could also be RNH and able to self target.
I'm assuming you're afraid of outing him as a town PR? I'll go back and take a look at Launch because my read of him is mostly gut.
One experience though that has stuck with me is Kalor (better know as redacted) in Danganronpa. That was also a lucky coincidence, but we tried to not out Kalor (and spoke of *redacted*) thinking we might be protecting a PR, but when Kalor was outed and flipped ordinary town it left us with next to zero doubt that Splinter disguised as Kalor and performed the NK and gave us the second scum kill. The takeaway from that is in fear of outing another town PR we ended up protecting a scum.
That game was a little inbalanced though with scum only having that disguise as a way of hiding and town effectively having two commuters.