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[cory64]

Waffles knows ha charts and I agree with him.

 

[Koodo]

hihihihi the receipt clocking if that shitty song doesn't go #1 will be merciless.

 

[Styles]

Applause is still a legitimate bop if I blast it on my speakers.

 

[Wafflecakes]

I like 1D tho ;_;

As you should

Tbh Taylor is probably my #3 after 1D and Kellegend.



Oh and Frozen > Tangled.

 

[Professor Beef]

Applause is still a legitimate bop if I blast it on my speakers.

I love Applause

 

[Qazaq]

I already explained this before, but seeing as you have the memory of a goldfish I will do it again.

1. It is selling too well now while its streaming and airplay are lagging behind.

It's not though.

After tomorrow when we get new weekly sales numbers, it'll probably have sold about 650k - 700k, with 40-42 million radio impressions. That's indicative of a song that people are really responding to, but there's nothing out of sync with that.

Number 1 songs sell well without requiring that many more people to have heard them, because more people who hear it like the song. Duh.

Believe it or not the group of people who buy pop music is relatively small (I would guess 8-10 million)

No way. The #1 song on pop radio right now gets about 120 million audience impressions, and while I don't know how many downloads the top X pop songs sell a week, it's certainly in the millions. Per week.

And it's Christmas season, sis.

2. Ballads never tend to do great stream wise generally to begin with. The video is a snooze and isn't going going to be contributing much.

Pressed.

If people like the song, they'll stream it, and SS did fine on streaming last week. The video is nice and simple and already has 8.5 million views.

3. It will probably peak as far as sales go during the holidays. During this time AC stations (which should be a bastion for this track) are playing Xmas music. This will hinder its airplay for the rest of the month and ensure no #1.

No, because AC stations only add about 20 million audience impressions max for their #1 song, which Say Something would've taken awhile to get to anyway because songs climb slower on that forum.

4. Its Airplay is doing well, but not THAT well. You guys act like it is shooting up the chart.... when really it is behaving like an average top 5 hit. 1-2 million updates are solid and make it a hit, but other massive songs that went #1 (Roar, Royals, and maybe The Monster/Timber) all were receiving 3-4 million updates.

I love how you downplay it's latest string of 2 million updates on radio -- updates that keep getting higher -- by comparing them to the lead single by Katy Perry, Eminem & Rihanna, and Pitbull & Kesha.

Your take on it taking "far too long" to peak on radio just isn't true, lol.

5. Honestly. The Monster is a huge Multi Format smash that could achieve 220 million AI for radio and is slaying streams despite the fact that the video has not dropped yet. It could easily be a 5-10 week #1.

I love how you talk about Say Something not peaking at the right time with sales and radio, and then bring up a song that is peaking on pop radio yet is currently being outsold by Timber

Spoiler

after reaching its sales peak

That said. There is a SMALL outside shot of SS hitting #1.

I see the backpeddling has begun.

This would occur the week after Xmas during the year end countdowns. All the top songs will have their airplay diminished. This means sales will be even more important and if SS is THE breakout song of the week after Xmas it has a small shot.

The only other option would be to outlast The Monster and Timber and go #1 in late January or February before the new releases start hitting. I don't see it happening though for various reasons. It is hard to imagine the song lasting that long.

LOL

Everything in this quote is a big fat "Why?"

Give me a break. I highly, HIGHLY doubt you know more about the charts than I do.

Unless you work in the radio industry or are privy to information that isn't publicly disseminated, I guarantee you I do.

 

[Qazaq]

hihihihi the receipt clocking if that shitty song doesn't go #1 will be merciless.

Dearest Koodo, no one is saying SS will guarantee go number 1.

We're simply saying it is certainly behaving like a song that could go number 1 in the future, and calling out the Pressedness of someone acting like it's not a number 1 contender.

 

[Koodo]

hihihihihi the back-pedalling was swift.

 

[WhereAreMahDragonz]

As you should

Tbh Taylor is probably my #3 after 1D and Kellegend.



Oh and Frozen > Tangled.

That is a great top 3 to have. 1D would probably be in my top 5 but Kellegend is probably tied with Taylord for my #1.

Tangled had more of an impact with me tho. Frozen has the better animations and songs but I liked the story in Tangled more. The ending with

Spoiler

Rapunzel getting her hair cut and finally meeting her parents

brings tears to my eyes every time ;_;

Idina Menzel > Mandy Moore for sure tho

 

[cory64]

The Top 10 songs probably move between 1-2 million depending on the time of year and whether there's a heavily promoted debut. It's not a significant amount.

 

[Qazaq]

hihihihihi the back-pedalling was swift.

Don't even try it sis. SS is behaving like a future #1, but I would never assume a song is guaranteed to go number 1. We're talking about someone thinking the song has no shot at the top spot, let's not spin things and act like the discussion about the reverse.

]The Top 10 songs probably move between 1-2 million depending on the time of year and whether there's a heavily promoted debut. It's not a significant amount.

You misunderstood him.

He's saying the reason SS's sales are bad now is because the pool of eligible people to buy the song is only about 8-10 million people.

That just isn't true. It's not about a song moving X amount per week during December.

A song has an iTunes sales ceiling of about 6-7 million units, and may move 1-2 million units in December as a ceiling, but the pool of potential buyers is not only 8-10 million people.

 

[OtachiSlattern]

Does anyone have any songs to recommend from Jessie Ware?


Also, isn't Waffles like this thread's sort of HDD/BB? Seems like he's usually right.

 

[7echnicolor]

Dungeonesse - Dungeonesse (CLICK IMAGE TO LISTEN ON SPOTIFY)

Currently listening to it on and its giving me life. CHECK HA

Wait.. this is good
'Show You' is currently playing.

 

[You Know Nothing]

Speaking of Mandy Moore, y'all need to let her folk-pop album into your lives.

I don't hear the other girls doing it.

 

[Wafflecakes]

The shameless double posting.

Most of it is just opinion, so I will leave it. THIS is wrong though:

No way. The #1 song on pop radio right now gets about 120 million audience impressions, and while I don't know how many downloads the top X pop songs sell a week, it's certainly in the millions. Per week.

And it's Christmas season, sis.

1. Audience impressions is not how many people heard a song. It is the number of times it is heard. If the average radio listener listens for 3 hours a day (some kids listen way more than that). That is 21 hours a week. That means they would mean that EASILY they heard the song 21 times since the #1 song is almost always on hourly power rotation. I will be generous as just say they heard it 10 times. Something a supposed insider such as yourself would surely know.

That means only about 12 million unique listeners at most.

2. Then you have to take out people who are radio only (they are out there), illegal downloaders, spotify users, etc.

A more rational look at that number would lead to a 5-6 million purchasing listener pool for pop-radio.

 

[WhereAreMahDragonz]

Don't even try it sis. SS is behaving like a future #1, but I would never assume a song is guaranteed to go number 1. We're talking about someone thinking the song has no shot at the top spot, let's not spin things and act like the discussion about the reverse.

Koo is right tho. You went from saying "It's definitely going to be a #1 hit" to "It might be a #1 hit".

 

[Qazaq]

Does anyone have any songs to recommend from Jessie Ware?


Also, isn't Waffles like this thread's sort of HDD/BB? Seems like he's usually right.

Perhaps, but he's letting his bias get in the way of what's right in front of him.


The argument against SS going number 1 is that ballads don't typically set the streaming charts on fire, and that there's a lot of competition.


Well, every song always has a lot of competition. So aside from that, he's trying to peddle a faulty reading by saying that a song with 42 million audience impressions and 750k in sales is out of sync and too tilted towards sales.

It's not. It's just not. *shrug*

He would have a point if radio didn't immediately jump on the song after The Voice performance, but it did.

You want an example of a song that has sold too much compared to its airplay and is thus hindering its potential peak performance?

Look at Dark Horse. Hence the label is nervous about releasing it.

But Say Something selling about the same amount as Dark Horse with a video and 40 million impressions and rocketing up radio is totally fine.

Koo is right tho. You went from saying "It's definitely going to be a #1 hit" to "It might be a #1 hit".

Receipts?

I said Say Something is acting like a future #1 song -- but that's in the context of a discussion about it having no shot.

If people misunderstood me as saying it would "guaranteed" go number 1, well then let me correct the record: Of course it's not a guarantee.

But it absolutely behaving like a song that is going to be a strong contender for the top slot.

Spoiler

Unlike Do What U Want

 

[WhereAreMahDragonz]

Perhaps, but he's letting his bias get in the way of what's right in front of him.

Isn't that...exactly what you're doing?

 

[7echnicolor]

Does anyone have any songs to recommend from Jessie Ware?

Check out: Devotion, Running, Sweet Talk, Taking In Water, Something Inside, Imagine It Was Us.

If you're into remixes, the Disclosure remix of 'Running' is life giving.

 

[Dr. Malik]

Seems like he's usually right.

kiii

but speaking of that, Waffles who had the closest Britney Jean prediction?

 

[Wafflecakes]

Missed this:

and while I don't know how many downloads the top X pop songs sell a week, it's certainly in the millions. Per week.

Completely untrue. The average #1 selling pop song in any given week is around 250k.

kiii

but speaking of that, Waffles who had the closest Britney Jean prediction?

I will be trotting out the results later this week.

 

[Go319]

can i ask what this service/software is?

 

[WhereAreMahDragonz]

can i ask what this service/software is?

Spotify. It's a free music streaming service.

 

[Qazaq]

Isn't that...exactly what you're doing?

I dunno, you tell me:

a) A song rocketing up radio and number 1 on iTunes has a good shot at the top slot

b) A song rocketing up radio and number 1 on iTunes has no shot at the top slot

Spoiler

Now amended to say it has a small one

That is 21 hours a week. That means they would mean that EASILY they heard the song 21 times since the #1 song is almost always on hourly power rotation. I will be generous as just say they heard it 10 times. Something a supposed insider such as yourself would surely know.

That means only about 12 million unique listeners at most.

I didn't claim that 120 million people heard the song via radio, but "12 million unique listeners" number is pulled out of your butt and is way too low.

It's common sense: The number 1 song in the country has more than 12 million unique listeners on the radio.

2. Then you have to take out people who are radio only (they are out there), illegal downloaders, spotify users, etc.

A more rational look at that number would lead to a 5-6 million purchasing listener pool for pop-radio.

You're confusing the ceiling we've seen for songs to sell on iTunes with the listener pool you speak of.

It's not the same 5-6 million people buying all the pop songs on iTunes, which are not the same 5-6 million people who go to iTunes because they are the only ones listening to Pop radio.

Completely untrue. The average #1 selling pop song in any given week is around 250k.

You missed the plural sis. I'm aware of how much the #1 song on iTunes tends to sell.

The only reason pointing this out is important is because you keep insisting that out of a potential 3-4 million in sales, 750k of those have already been sold, and thus you've construed this into meaning that Say Something can't possibly sell enough in the coming weeks to make #1.

I mean, jeez, maybe it won't get there, but it just seems so ridiculous to claim it won't. Look at the charts with your own eyes sis.

 

[Go319]

Spotify. It's a free music streaming service.

thanks ive never used it, im using apple radio...so safe to say spotify is superior?

 

[WhereAreMahDragonz]

I dunno, you tell me:

a) A song rocketing up radio and number 1 on iTunes has a good shot at the top slot

b) A song rocketing up radio and number 1 on iTunes has no shot at the top slot

Spoiler

Now amended to say it has a small one

That tells me nothing about the question I asked you. And, in addition, in what way is Waffles biased? We've already established that he's not pressed about the song at all.

thanks ive never used it, im using apple radio...so safe to say spotify is superior?

I'd say so. I haven't really played around with iTunes radio all that much but with Spotify you can listen to whatever albums / songs and make your own playlists based on your preferences. There aren't radio channels or anything.

 

[Wafflecakes]

I dunno, you tell me:

a) A song rocketing up radio and number 1 on iTunes has a good shot at the top slot

b) A song rocketing up radio and number 1 on iTunes has no shot at the top slot

Spoiler

Now amended to say it has a small one

I didn't claim that 120 million people heard the song via radio, but "12 million unique listeners" number is pulled out of your butt and is way too low.

It's common sense: The number 1 song in the country has more than 12 million unique listeners on the radio.



You're confusing the ceiling we've seen for songs to sell on iTunes with the listener pool you speak of.

It's not the same 5-6 million people buying all the pop songs on iTunes, which are not the same 5-6 million people who go to iTunes because they are the only ones listening to Pop radio.

Oh please. I explained exactly how I got the 12 million number.

1. Power rotation songs are usually played about once an hour: Fact
2. The #1 song on pop radio is usually almost universally on power rotation: Fact
3. The people who listen to pop radio tend not to only listen for 1 hour a week: Fact




If you look at the best selling singles of all time in the US the BEST selling ballad of this type in the digital era is Someone Like You. Which has not sold 6 million units yet. I don't think anyone is expecting that..... plus digital sales are trending down.

This year we had 3 ballads sell big numbers. All sold between 3-4.5 million. The best scenario for SS has it charting in that range. When you are looking at that 1-2 million sales before the song has a legit shot at #1 (which it won't have for about a month at best as it waits for radio to catch yup) that is a significant chunk. gone.



You need to look no further for examples of this than Roar. The song just passed the 4 million mark. Yet it only went #1 for two weeks while Royals went #1 for almost 10 with slightly less sales.

The difference? Roar peaked early sales wise and declined before it peaked on radio.

 

[cory64]

Yup. Say Something is approaching the saturation half-life for sales and is past saturation on streaming.

 

[Qazaq]

That tells me nothing about the question I asked you.

Oh sorry, the answer to your question to me was no.

When you are looking at that 1-2 million sales before the song has a legit shot at #1 (which it won't have for about a month at best as it waits for radio to catch yup) that is a significant chunk. gone.

I have news for you: Very few songs have everything timed just as you think they should on paper.

The Monster has no video out yet literally can't go that much farther on radio and is past its sales peak.

You brought up Roar.

Songs can go number 1 even if they don't always have everything lined up.

Remember, we're talking about you acting as if there's no shot at SS something going number 1

Spoiler

whilst sort of implying it wouldn't even be contending for it, because let's be real, who goes around saying "This song will DEFINITELY be top 3-4 but NO WAY number 1" -- you certainly weren't.

The song can go number 1. It might get to #2 and miss by a few %s. It might get blocked if The Monster's video surfaces and it never lets up.

But stop being so pressed, the song can go number 1.

You need to look no further for examples of this than Roar. The song just passed the 4 million mark. Yet it only went #1 for two weeks while Royals went #1 for almost 10 with slightly less sales.

The difference? Roar peaked early sales wise and declined before it peaked on radio.

So you're saying a song that peaked earlier in sales compared to its radio performance went #1.

Yup. Say Something is approaching the saturation half-life for sales and is past saturation on streaming.

LOL the song is about to have sold around 750k. That's not a half life sis. If Say Something is as massive as it could be, let's say around 4 million, that's approaching a quarter of its sales.

40 million audience on radio is a quarter of the biggest smash radio hits (which I sort of don't see Say Something reaching tbh).

Again, there's nothing particularly out of sync.

Spoiler

I have no idea how to measure "saturation on streaming" or any information about that.

 

[WhereAreMahDragonz]

Oh sorry, the answer to your question to me was no.

Oh? In what way?

I'm absolutely perched to hear you try to backpedal out of this.

 

[Qazaq]

Oh? In what way?

I'm absolutely perched to hear you try to backpedal out of this.

Hew needs to backpedal?

I know all about wishful thinking as a Christina fan. You don't need any wishful anything here.

My analysis isn't driven by optimism. I'm saying it can go number 1 because, quite literally, of how the song is performing. It's common sense. The song is a proven smash. It's connecting. It's rocketing up radio and selling extremely well.

Saying a song performing like this doesn't have a shot at #1 is driven by a deliberate rose-colored glasses in not wanting to see it go number 1.

There's no such thing as a "standard" or an "objective".

But since we all only have context at our disposal, you need to stretch way further to say Say Something has no shot at number 1 in the context of its performance than to say it does have a shot at number 1.

Simple as that. This isn't rocket science. The figures and numbers are a way of measuring how much people like the song. The charts and figures are a means to an end, they're not THE end. If the public likes a song as much as they like Say Something, it will have a shot at number 1.

You don't count out obvious smash songs from reaching number 1. When you do, you look like you have an agenda at play.

Hence, Wafflecakes is pressed.

 

[Leona Lewis]

In its first week, Christmas With Love has sold 11,000 more copies in the US than Glassheart did.

Not answering any follow-up questions.

 

[You Know Nothing]

This page...

Let me go back to getting my life from I'm On Top.

Sky, her female empowerment anthem.

You're always in control you said
You're operatin' at a higher level
Than all your lovers did that's what you said
You never thought you'd ever loved
You only felt you were playin' a part
And so you loved her less
And got yourself in debt

 

[Dr. Malik]

Boys, they're dime a dozen
Boys they doin' nothing
For me any longer
Not be getting stronger

Boys a lot of women love you
But boys they just make me mad
All the little things that you do
Ain't gonna make me sad

Then I saw one lookin'
At me from afar

 

[Wafflecakes]

Yup. Say Something is approaching the saturation half-life for sales and is past saturation on streaming.

Pretty much.

Qaz will never believe, though that doesn't bother me at all.

What annoys me is that he cannot accept that other people have opinions. They much be pressed/biased/etc for disagreeing with him.

 

[Qazaq]

Shhhhh it's okay Waffle.

Say something, I'm giving up on you
I'll be the one, if you want me to
Anywhere, I would've followed you
Say something, I'm giving up on you

And I am feeling so small
It was over my head
I know nothing at all

And I will stumble and fall
I'm still learning to love
Just starting to crawl

Say something, I'm giving up on you
I'm sorry that I couldn't get to you
Anywhere, I would've followed you
Say something, I'm giving up on you

And I will swallow my pride
You're the one that I love
And I'm saying goodbye

Say something, I'm giving up on you
And I'm sorry that I couldn't get to you
And anywhere, I would have followed you
Oh-oh-oh-oh say something, I'm giving up on you

Say something, I'm giving up on you
Say something

 

[WhereAreMahDragonz]

Hew needs to backpedal?

I know all about wishful thinking as a Christina fan. You don't need any wishful anything here.

My analysis isn't driven by optimism. I'm saying it can go number 1 because, quite literally, of how the song is performing. It's common sense. The song is a proven smash. It's connecting. It's rocketing up radio and selling extremely well.

Saying a song performing like this doesn't have a shot at #1 is driven by a deliberate rose-colored glasses in not wanting to see it go number 1.

There's no such thing as a "standard" or an "objective".

But since we all only have context at our disposal, you need to stretch way further to say Say Something has no shot at number 1 in the context of its performance than to say it does have a shot at number 1.

Simple as that. This isn't rocket science. The figures and numbers are a way of measuring how much people like the song. The charts and figures are a means to an end, they're not THE end.

You don't count out obvious smash songs from reaching number 1. When you do, you look like you have an agenda at play.

Hence, Wafflecakes is pressed.

Waffle isn't pressed, we've already proven that he likes the song and wants it to succeed.

Your entire argument is you stanning Xtina to high heavens and refusing to acknowledge the patterns that have followed countless songs as they progress through the charts. And before you even say anything, yes, I dislike Xtina immensely but I love Say Something, have given it my coins, and enjoy it often. And I'm not even talking about the non-Xtina version. I bought the one with her in it.

What you need to do is make yourself something relaxing, like tea or hot chocolate, snuggle into bed, and chill out. It's what I'm going to be doing, because your blatant biases and "arguments" are giving me a headache.

 

[Styles]

In its first week, Christmas With Love has sold 11,000 more copies in the US than Glassheart did.

Not answering any follow-up questions.

Um.. was Glasshorse even...


Nevermind.

 

[Qazaq]

Waffle isn't pressed, we've already proven that he likes the song and wants it to succeed.

Which is why he spent pages arguing with me about the song's success.

Your entire argument is you stanning Xtina to high heavens and refusing to acknowledge the patterns that have followed countless songs as they progress through the charts.

*shrug* I'm the one who is. You two are the ones who are not.

Spoiler

I like the version of Say Something without Xtina more

 

[You Know Nothing]

Um.. was Glasshorse even...


Nevermind.

I was going to mention that.

But I'm happy for the good niece Leonard. So I didn't think it would be appropriate.

 

[Wafflecakes]

Which is why he spent pages arguing with me about the song's success.



*shrug* I'm the one who is. You two are the ones who are not.

1. That is because I am sales/chart obsessed. I have spent many more pages arguing over songs I care far less about.

2. No. You aren't, and in a month or two the proof will be in the pudding as its sales will not be high enough to sustain it by the time The Monster fizzles out at #1.

 

[WhereAreMahDragonz]

Which is why he spent pages arguing with me about the song's success.

What does that have anything to do with the arguments? He's saying it isn't going to, not that he doesn't want it to.

I don't even know why I bother anymore. This will be my last post to you regarding this. Later gator.

 

[royalan]

I love when Qazaq visits the thread. *.*

 

[Qazaq]

1. That is because I am sales/chart obsessed. I have spent many more pages arguing over songs I care far less about.

2. No. You aren't, and in a month or two the proof will be in the pudding as its sales will not be high enough to sustain it by the time The Monster fizzles out at #1.

I'm sales/charts obsessed too sweetheart, for over 10 years. Do not think I cannot go toe to toe with you.


And your argument has not been that Say Something can't reach #1 because it'll be stuck at #2 due to The Monster.

Your argument has been Say Something would never be a contender for the top.

You have been proven wrong, and we've all taken note of the little backpeddlings you've taken to get here.

And for the record, no one knows how The Monster will hold up a month from now vs. Say Something. Acting as if this stuff is linear is wrong. But Say Something has more than a month left in it. On any front you can think of.

 

[Wafflecakes]

TBH I would be thrilled if SS went #1.

SS>>>>>Timber>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>The Monster

I feel like it is fallowing a similar chart path as Stay did. 3 million in sales and a #3 peak.

 

[You Know Nothing]

I love when Qazaq visits the thread. *.*

He certainly makes it more of a mess.

Spoiler

I use.

 

[Qazaq]

I love when Qazaq visits the thread. *.*

I will take no prisoners.


But srsly if you gurls really wanna clock me, take a look at that Bangerz prediction of mine. Oof...

I feel like it is fallowing a similar chart path as Stay did. 3 million in sales and a #3 peak.

'Stay' is the rare song that, at first I wasn't sure how I felt about it, and it turned mildly pleasant, but instead of growing on me, I grew to HATE it.

Like, sorry but that is one boring ass trite mess. I am here for many Rihanna songs, but not that one.

 

[Wafflecakes]

Qazaq. Just stop.

You are a liar and just keep lying.



I NEVER said it would not be in contention. I said I do not see a path to #1. A #2 peak would not surprise me at all. I just think it will be at its peak around the same time as The Monster.

I NEVER said there was NO chance at #1. I said that I don't see a path.

I AM NOT pressed over Say Something. I have had nothing but nice things to say about the song itself from day one.



Get the fuck over yourself.

(My last post on the subject since all you seem to care about are the voices in your head.)

 

[DMeisterJ]

5. Honestly. The Monster is a huge Multi Format smash that could achieve 220 million AI for radio and is slaying streams despite the fact that the video has not dropped yet. It could easily be a 5-10 week #1.

You better clock that tea.

 

[Qazaq]