Bingo.
Gallup: R 52-O 45 Time to Worry?
- Thread starter KidOmega
- Start date
- Status
Bingo.
dave is ok
aztek is ok
The real deal is that Obama is guaranteed to win PA and WI, likely to win NH and MI and hasn't lost a lead in OH this entire election. That RCP map doesn't reflect that
Shadow Hog
Member
It'd actually been gathering traction for a while. Stumbled on it on Wil Wheaton's Tumblr earlier today.
538's chances of Obama winning some of those "tossups:"
Ohio 69%
Nevada 67%
New Hampshire 69%
Iowa 63%
Wisconsin 75%
Pennsylvania and Michigan aren't even listed as competitive states on 538.
Am I missing something? This morning I was reading posts on GAF about how the polls don't matter, Romney's got the EC in his pocket, etc.
Now, I see this...what's the deal?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
PA/MA are NOT fucking toss-ups for starters and OH/WI/IA lean Obama, if anything.
Take out toss-ups and lookee at what we got here.
Yeah, fuck off, RCP.
And PPP poll of CO has Bams up by 3 http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-by-3-points-in-colorado.html so even that map is wrong right now
Agreed.
If we could just fix the fucking Senate so that you could actually pass a law that does anything really important, we'd be way better off, regardless of who was in power. If politicians really thought they could pass substantial legislation that would bring sweeping change to the country, their rhetoric would change drastically. They wouldn't have any excuses for not delivering once they were in office.
As it is, everybody knows nothing significant is really going to happen. The politicians have the built in excuse of grid-lock when they fail to do anything, so they can say anything they want and nobody can fault them when they fail.
If we weakened the senate filibuster, our votes would matter a lot more. As it is, nobody can do anything anyway, and many people on both sides are actively working to maintain the status-quo, because real change is scary to the people in power.
As things stand, I just can't feel any passion about elections anymore. They're all fucking liars and cheats, and the differences between them seem less important as I get older.
gutter_trash
Banned
so many GOP tears on Nov 6... ooooo so awesome
Red Blaster
Member
PA/MA are NOT fucking toss-ups for starters and OH/WI/IA lean Obama, if anything.
Take out toss-ups and lookee at what we got here.
Yeah, fuck off, RCP.
You can put CO in blue too, very good chance Obama gets it
Omegasquash
Member
PA/MA are NOT fucking toss-ups for starters and OH/WI/IA lean Obama, if anything.
Take out toss-ups and lookee at what we got here.
Yeah, fuck off, RCP.
I like how Texas is "likely" Romney too. That got me giggling.
and Nebraska's 2nd cong district may give Obama one electoral vote. which means shit.
What does running a business have to do with fixing an economy?
Am I missing something? This morning I was reading posts on GAF about how the polls don't matter, Romney's got the EC in his pocket, etc.
Now, I see this...what's the deal?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html
Yes, that GAF is insanely biased. It's next to impossible for someone to win the electoral vote and lose the popular vote by more than 1.5 points, MAYBE 2. When the popular polls start to shift, it does mean something, but much of GAF ignores it or is willfully ignorant of it.
For the record, I still think the polls will tighten and Barry will win. But by a much tighter margin than I ever thought.
I actually think this is all true, except that I'd note that Gallup is the only national tracking poll showing this margin, and one of I think only two that show Romney leading. So I don't know that the polls will tighten, but I am confident Gallup will.
eBay Huckster
Member
Incidentally, no one but Gallup has Obama's margin at worse than -1.
Red Blaster
Member
I really do hope Mittens wins the popular vote just to see continued GOP cognitive dissonance about voter fraud
Only peoples opinions and thus polls change with the winds. Only one "poll" really matters.
How so? Do you really mean mathematically impossible? It would all depend on the margin of victory in states that are either SOLIDLY against you or SOLIDLY for you.
They'd promptly invade due to our social policies. Gay marriage? "Not on our borders!"
Yes, but according to RCP aren't there only three polls that are updated as of this week? So saying "only two" show Romney leading shouldn't be too comforting to you guys.
I check RCP every day these days, and yesterday it was .5 for Romney, and the day before .4. It certainly seems like you guys should be worrying a little, as the OP indicates. Not to mention the latest jobs numbers...
eBay Huckster
Member
i don't know why you're not using 538 as a standard here given that nate silver doesn't cherrypick polls to nearly the same extent as RCP (and certainly not national polls)
there are currently six national tracking polls in the field, with a seventh from PPP starting this week. RCP ignores three of them (and will ignore PPP if their past history is any indication).
Obviously it's mathematically possible, it's just wildly unlikely given the mutual dependence of the variables.
Misspellings turn this post from dark to kinda warm and fuzzy.
On a darker note, my grandma forwarded me an email today encouraging Texas to secede and restore the Bush presidency within its borders if Obama wins.
Delusibeta
Banned
Did you see the breakdown of the regions? The only region in the Gallup poll that's for Romney was the South, by +22. Everywhere else was +4-6 in favour of Obama. Gallup's model is fucked.
lol autocorrect
Thanks for pointing it out.
Good on your grandma, it'd be the first real progress in years!
Right? Let's all work together to help the South succeed!
StickSoldier
Member
Yeah, sometimes I'm embarrassed to be from Oklahoma. Well at least the part I'm from. Bunch of fuckin rednecks.
No poll outside of Gallup has shown it outside of the 1.5-2 point electoral-popular vote differential you were talking about.
Most of the swing state polls, especially in Ohio's case, are still strongly supporting an Obama victory.
Romney leading by 1 or 2 points in every national poll but Gallup, which he isn't even doing, doesn't suggest we should believe otherwise.
Except under Clinton there was a balanced budget, the lowest unemployment in 30 years, longest economic expansion in US history, lowest crime rate in 26 years, higher incomes at all levels etc. So really not much to blame.
eBay Huckster
Member
i'd just like to point out that excluding gallup from the RCP average (like how they seem to be excluding every daily tracker that isn't them, rasmussen or IBD) pushes it to a 47-47 tie.
evidently both candidates' bases are full of lazy people.
evidently both candidates' bases are full of lazy people.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
I don't think anyone would disagree here that the polls show the popular vote effectively tied now or a very slight Romney lead. But Gallup is an outlier by at least five points.
You tend to build crazy strawmen about what GAF thinks because you're endlessly annoyed by its liberal lean.
Eight Diagram Bat Fighter
Banned
Took more than investing to get the 2002 Olympics back on track.
SteveWinwood
Member
Yeah it took federal money!
You're right, it also took hundreds of millions in federal cash.
Father_Brain
Banned
This is fairly common from people who hold minority opinions here, I've noticed.
Deified Data
Banned
If anything, it'll be all the sweeter once they've been given a fighting chance and still fail.
gutter_trash
Banned
a fake fighting chance made up by cable news who want to make it appear to be a tight race
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Maybe Gallup is in on it.
Corporations love taking tax money, but man do they hate letting poor people take any.
No I don't, but you're using the worst-term-of-the-year by saying that I do. So nyeah.
Though I am annoyed—albeit infrequently rather than "endlessly," since I'm a Gaming-Side-Dude first—by GAF's "liberal lean." That is true. I think it leads to a lot of people barking at the same person, discourages discourse, lends itself to clouded judgement, encourages snarky comments (from myself included), and even, at times, results in unfair treatment.
Neither.... I'm a human.
eBay Huckster
Member
tell me more about how everyone but you is delusional
- Status