clay_ghost
Member
the thing is, even if Sony pull support for tv or DVD players, I can still watch new content for them. If vita dies and third party and from what I see now , Sony does not support it. Vita will have no new content.
Gamasutra: PlayStation Vita's biggest challenge: Convincing developers
- Thread starter Vic
- Start date
you do realize that the above is what many think is the perfect development method? Let engineers develop devices and not bean counters in marketing department.
Otherwise you would get PSPx1.5 for $149.
The most important quote is "as we expand our install base...". This is where Sony is having the most trouble. They don't have 1st party software capable of driving the install base quickly enough to attract 3rd party developers in the here and now. At the rate the Vita is selling it will take years for the Vita to match how quickly the 3ds install base expands in a single 12 month period. Sony needs to shake up the Vita beyond a price cut. Maybe a new model, a price cut, a new advertising angle, and a price cut across the board for software or something like that.
I don't think this is how sales projections for publicly traded companies work. It's not like there's some gentleman's agreement that they would lie to the public to instill false hope. If a company misses its sales projections, stockholders lose faith and sell their stock.
Microsoft always hit its sales projections with Xbox 360, and Nintendo took drastic measures to ensure they'd hit theirs with 3DS.
Also, of course Sony can afford to keep the Vita afloat, but that's not necessarily the most sound financial decision.
If Sony knew that there was no chance for Vita to sell, they would have not made Vita.
Sony does not lie in their investor documents, not only it is illegal, it is also bad for the company. However Sony is constantly wrong with their projections and hence their stock is so undervalued, investors do not trust them. Compare this to Toyota, another Japanese company, that always outperforms expectations, and their stock as result is always very high, and their market cap outperforms competition by 2x.
So why is Sony so bad at predicting stuff? Bad management.
lowrider007
Licorice-flavoured booze?
Look, if you guys know so much about the in and outs of the business and and how Sony is run internally why don't you get in Touch with Sony and offer your services and make a ton of money in the process?
Seriously, armchair analysts make me lol.
Seriously, armchair analysts make me lol.
You're the one acting like the ways of business are an utter mystery and no one but Sony can possibly know whether the Vita is a total failure or a shining success. You're making up constant excuses for why the Vita might not be a turd. We're just here to tell you that it's not all that hard to figure out.
lowrider007
Licorice-flavoured booze?
Your the one acting as though you know more than what Sony does, like I said, offer up your services.
RurouniZel
Asks questions so Ezalc doesn't have to
It's sometimes much easier for people outside of "the system" to see flaws that should be obvious, but aren't because the people involved are so invested in their work they just can't see it. It's like how good artists seek critiques from non-artists to help them figure out what's wrong with a piece they're working on. They've been painting it for so long they can't figure out where the problem is, other artists might not immediately notice because they have similar methods, so non-artists might do a better job of pointing out flaws that, once spoken, suddenly become obvious to the artist.
tl;dr just because we're "armchair" analysts not only doesn't make our opinions/conclusions invalid, in some ways it may be more valuable than insider analysis.
What are you even referring to? That I think I know what's better for Sony than Sony does?
Dr. Feel Good
Banned
You do realize a company is more than just revenues? You could have revenue of 35 trillion but it wouldn't mean anything if your expenses are 80 trillion.
CosmicQueso
Member
Edit: These armchair analysts are offering some great insights.
lowrider007
Licorice-flavoured booze?
No, that you think you know more than what Sony's knows with regards to whether the PS Vita is a viable product or not, and I don't agree with your metrics when it comes to working out whether the PS Vita is a "turd" product as say, ie, just comparing sales figures, like I've said from the beginning I believe the Vita can exist in the market place without matching it's competitors and still be a viable product, the problem is with games systems and this type of discussion is that type of scenario is seen as a virtual impossibility, and the product at the bottom of the pile barely 6 months on western soil gets labelled an abject failure, but, and please quote me on this, it will happen with the PS Vita, it will continue to exist and be supported by Sony as a 'niche' product with even the possibility of a successor.
First off, wow, that's quite a run-on sentence.
Your argument seems to boil down to thinking that Sony will keep supporting the Vita so long as they are able to eek out even a minuscule profit on it. But I'd argue that Sony's finite assets would be better applied to some more profitable venture. Besides, Sony didn't put out this platform in order to create an additional avenue to sell their first-party games. They put it out to reap revenue from third-party sales. That's where the majority of the money comes from. They have no good reason to keep a platform around on which to sell first party titles when it only has a fraction of the userbase of their home consoles.
Mariah Carey
Member
Because it is? You realize we haven't had a new entrant in the console space in ten years? You know why that is? Because of the extreme difficulty of achieving success in the business. We've had exactly two companies in all of history who've managed any kind of sustained success at it, and only one in the handheld biz.
So why do you think this?
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Thing is, the way things are going Drake's best buds will be defcting to 3DS. It's going to have both the blockbusters and the solid support, which is usually how it works.Shocker. Mario sells. It's no Angry Birds but its up there
Point being, it needs a barage of quality titles. For every Mario, it'll need Drake and 10 of his best buds available. I get it. Give this system some time to get its ducks in a row.
You'll have to dig in the June 2012 NPD thread for the source.
PlayStation Vita Top 20:
01. Uncharted: Golden Abyss
200k
02. Ultimate Marvel vs Capcom 3
100k
03. Unit 13
04. MLB: The Show 12
05. Modnation Racers: Road Trip
06. FIFA Soccer 12
07. WipEout 2048
08. Mortal Kombat
09. Rayman Origins
10. Hot Shots Golf: World Invitational
50k
11. Resistance: Burning Skies
12. Ninja Gaiden Sigma Plus
40k
13. Gravity Rush
14. Little Deviants
15. Dungeon Hunter: Alliance
30k
16. Metal Gear Solid qHD Collection
17. Lumines: Electronic Symphony
18. Dynasty Warriors Next
19. Ridge Racer
20k
20. Touch My Katamari!
Nintendo 3DS Top 20:
01. Super Mario 3D Land
2m
02. Mario Kart 7
1.5m
03. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D
1m
400k
04. Pokemon Rumble Blast
05. Star Fox 64 3D
06. Super Street Fighter IV: 3D Edition
300k
07. Kid Icarus: Uprising
08. LEGO Star Wars III: The Clone Wars
09. Pilotwings Resort
250k
10. Sonic Generations
11. Skylanders: Spyro's Adventure
200k
12. Mario & Sonic at the London 2012 Olympic Games
13. Nintendogs + cats: French Bulldog & New Friends
14. Nintendogs + cats: Golden Retriever & New Friends
15. Nintendogs + cats: Toy Poodle & New Friends
16. LEGO Pirates of the Caribbean
150k
17. Resident Evil: Revelations
18. Asphalt 3D
19. Rayman 3D
20. Super Monkey Ball 3D
130k
lowrider007
Licorice-flavoured booze?
Yes I have poor literacy skills and it's not through lack of trying to improve them, there are various reasons as to why my English is poor but I'd rather not get into that as it looks like I'm making excuses, I try my best, it take me a long time to make posts and one of the reasons why I find longer more in depth discussions like this a little stressful as it's hard to properly convey what's in my mind and translate it to text.
That seems like a more reasonable suggestion but is having a product in the market place 'just' about profit though?, if Sony gives up on the Vita, or rather if they just chose not to create the device they are essentially handing the whole dedicated hand-held market over to Nintendo, is it not worth paying for the Vita to exist and be a kinda door stop in this scenario?, is it possible there are other long term fringe benefits?, the PSP Go really didn't sell that well but I remember Sony saying they gathered some very important analytics from that system in regards to digital sales which is an important part of Sony's ecosystem going forward.
Also I'm sure they are hoping that the PS Vita helps with PS Mobile platform which they also want to be popular on their new phones and other selected third party Playstation Certified devices, even with Vita's current low rate of sales I think it could be enough to help prop up PS Mobile and make it a more viable platform which will in turn help promote PS Mobile on other devices due to added content, I'm not sure PS Mobile would be that viable without the Vita, I personally have high hopes for PS Mobile, I think it's a chance for small indy devs to make some cash in a new space, we all criticised Playstation mini's until dev's started speaking out saying it was actually a profitable platform for them.
People like to call the vita dead or a zombie system, but I will wait until March next year before writing it off. There are a lot of big name games coming out in Japan over the next 5 months. If that doesn't help spur sales, it will essentially be a portable x360 in japan: lots of great games, not many people buying the console.
For the US and Europe, it probably won't do well in any case. Still a chance for success in Japan, though.
For the US and Europe, it probably won't do well in any case. Still a chance for success in Japan, though.
I see. It's not that the words are bad. You just need to use periods in place of commas to end your thoughts.
I'm not sure that you're considering the larger picture. Sony is in a miserable financial position, so they absolutely do need to worry about profit at every turn. Also, the future of dedicated handhelds is.....uncertain. Nintendo may be able to stick it out for another couple generations, since they cater to the younger crowd, but Sony is trying in vain to wring sales from an older crowd that's mostly moved on. To that end, it's not all that important for Sony to maintain fan confidence in their handhelds, as it's extremely unlikely that they'll release another traditional handheld console.
Also, I don't see PS Mobile succeeding without Vita first succeeding. I just don't see developers choosing to develop for the PS Mobile subset rather than the entire Android ecosystem.
I don't mean to pile on, but I don't think people realize that in addition to Vita hardware sales being terrible, Vita software sales are a huge fucking disaster. Sure there's digital, but digital sales would need to equal retail sales for it to look okay. For example, in the first 40 weeks since launching in Japan, Dreamcast and Vita sold the same amount of hardware, but Dreamcast sold roughly 2.5 times more software.
RukusProvider
Banned
Is this how you think real life works?
You do what? walk into a company and ask them to let you run it for a while?
Write an email no one will care to read, never mind follow through up?
Companies make products that bomb. It happens. Remember Kin? Look at all the smartphones that come out and die quickly. Where is the Sony Table P? What about HP's Touchpad? Shit happens. You don't always have a winner on your hands. That's the case with the Vita.
This concept of "my favorite gaming company could never release a product rejected by the mass market!" is absurd.
Dreams-Visions
Member
a lot of work to do...and no price cut in the foreseeable future, right? and no system-selling games coming soon?
hmmm. good luck with that one.
lowrider007
Licorice-flavoured booze?
I'm not sure your thinking of the bigger picture either tbh, I imagine running Sony atm is like running a government in a country going through a tough recession, you can't just keep making cuts, it's not economically healthy, you also have to continue to spend and invest your money to help get you through the slump and fulfil important long term goals which the company still want to achieve and feel is beneficial to their future, like their recent accusation of Gaikai for example, of course deciding which products to continue to support and which to ditch is an important part of that process, but they can't just cut loose everything that isn't doing as well as expected, like the Vita for example, I think it would do more harm than good for the Playstation brand leaving the dedicated handheld market entirely.
Developers chose to make games for minis over that of ios/android, some even said they had software on ios previously and there was very little interest in their game and found their software got better exposure on the mini's platform, plus there are other benefits,
http://www.psnstores.com/2012/07/laughing-jackal-talks-about-playstation-minis-says-nice-things/
Well that's part of the problem on here with these types of discussions, everything has to be 'winner' all the time, I'm actually saying the Vita doesn't have to be one to be a viable product, simple as that, nothing more nothing less.
I've never suggested such a thing, lets try to keep 'fanboy' accusations to a minimum please because I am not one of them.
And essentially nothing announced for after Christmas (except Soul Sacrifice, which was planned for Christmas but delayed).
You can't compare business with government. Government is about providing freedom, justice, and opportunity, none of which are profitable. Business is about making money.
Sony is like a boat with a broken motor that's taking on water. They need to address the 'taking on water' part before they can worry about the 'broken motor' issue. They need to start profiting now or else there won't be a company left to carry the Playstation brand. Besides, there most likely won't be another dedicated Sony handheld. There may not be a PS5. The strength of the Playstation brand isn't exactly the thing that will carry them into the far future.
lowrider007
Licorice-flavoured booze?
I wasn't being literal, I would of thought that was obvious, and governments have to try and keep the deficit low, you can draw similarities unless your just trying to be argumentative for the sake of it.
The thing is with regards to your analogy what may be taking on water now may help your company further down the road if given time to mature, MS had a MASSIVE hole in their proverbial boat with regards to the xbox division during the their first console generation, but in the end that ended laying down the foundations for a successful next generation system.
You think the Vita is a waste of Sony's time and is helping them sink, I don't, nothing much more to say really.
In my analogy, the company's overall losses were the hole in the boat, while the Playstation brand was the broken engine. My point was that keeping the entire company from sinking is more important than maintaining the integrity of the Playstation brand.
Microsoft was never in any danger with the original Xbox. It was a calculated loss which they predicted would reap benefits within three generations. Also, it was something they could easily 'swing', since the rest of the company was making monstrous profits. They also had tons of money in the bank. Sony, on the other hand, is one step away from being practically unable to attain credit.
lowrider007
Licorice-flavoured booze?
dude, I'm going to bed, this just getting us nowhere, we NEVER going to agree on anything, it's pointless, please have the last word and leave the thread happy.
Fair enough, I have homework to do!
electroplankton
Banned
Which games? Just asking.
Oh hey, welcome to the internets. This is a discussion forum. Crazy, I know, but technology, man.
Castor Krieg
Banned
This post hurts so fucking much I do not even know where to start. I do not know how much from reality you have to be removed to hold views like that.
No, perfect development is not engineers doing as they please with no regards to business model, timelines or budget. Same thing - perfect development is NOT suits pushing for product that is not ready for the market.
Perfect development involves managers and engineers working together to realize business goals of the company, something Sony is not doing by allowing engineers too much free reign in product development. The result is a PS Vita, a handheld that is just a better PSP because engineers did not realize (or did not want to realize) how the enviornment changed since 2006.
This is where managers should've stepped in, but they didn't, and as a result Vita struggles. That very fact makes all the engineering work irrelevant - if your product tanks it doesn't matter how good it was, it is now dead and all the effort and resources are wasted.
Apple did not grow to most valuable company on the face of this planet by offering superior technology, they got there because of perfect mix between need for innovative products and business sense behind these products.,
Please get basics right next time you make such an unreasonable comment.
grimshawish
Banned
There are two reasonably big games coming out in the west.
In Japan it is DONE. There are NO games coming out - none! Its over.
Also the 360 in Japan only has games because its a strong system in the west.
Vita won't get ANY 'great games'; its got one decent game (Gravity Rush) but really beyond that, not much.
The 360 is not a success in Japan. Its a failure.
This is precisly what Sony should have done! Nintendo have two screens to run and new 3D tech, Sony could have undercut the original price and even the price cut level!
Meanwhile both handhelds would get cross-platform titles, instead of constant war they'd be doing well beside each other. Everyone would be happy and we'd have more games overall.
Whats better - the Vita, with no games or a PSP at around the same level of the 3DS which is both affordable and supported?
The idea that Vita is better is utterly mental. Giving Sony engineers too much power is what caused Sony to lose its grip on the market.
electroplankton
Banned
Gran Turismo, Crash Bandicoot, Jak & Daxter, god of War, Singstar, EyeToy and Syphon Filter were all among the best selling games on their respective platforms; that doesn't mean Sony didn't heavily rely on third parties, but that Sony's effort have always been successful and quite big on its consoles, and the fact you states is a misconception; if we're looking at sales, the biggest names on PS3 are mainly from third parties: Call of Duty, Fifa, GTA, Battlefield, MGS, AC, RDR, FFXIII, RE5... With some Sony title here and there, such as Uncharted, GT, LBP and GoW (exactly as it was on PS1 and PS2).
I agree that they should have gone with the $150 PSP 1.5, as it would sell far better than the Vita. But I don't think Sony as a company could have possibly come to this conclusion. They're far too focused on pushing the envelope.
CoachKevin
Member
All this doom and gloom really sucks. The PS Vita hardware is awesome and I worry that all this negative talk is going to make it impossible for Sony to get 3rd parties on board.
I keep looking for an excuse to buy one besides being a great PSP game player.
I keep looking for an excuse to buy one besides being a great PSP game player.
It's been 7-9 months. Third parties aren't coming, and it's not our fault for speaking truthfully about the matter.
When opinions are two polar ends of the spectrum, how can you not go insane? Everyone is right because nothing has happened. No one year sales numbers let alone the ability to do YOY. No reaction to a price cut, No flagship titles released for the holidays yet outside of LBP. No PS+ for Vita yet (Nov). PSM hasn't released (Oct 3). Not even an analysis on hardware profitbility over time. Without even letting the business strategies work, folks have already put a gravestone next to it.
We've also offroaded from the OP. Just my opinion, I digress. Happy posting ...
It's quite easy to give evidence that conflicts with your hyperbolic doom'n gloom. I'm playing Ys IV Celceta right now and it's amazing, one of the best games I've played all year. Also, Atelier Totori Plus, Zero no Kiseki Evolution, Oboro Muramasa, Senran Kagura Shinovi, Soul Sacrifice, etc. Maybe they're not big games to you, but they're big games in Japan.
Yes, that was my whole point.
CoachKevin
Member
I am not saying you are wrong. I am saying it sucks that the Vita started off so poorly. Sony should have shelled out the cash/marketing deals to make sure this thing had support from the east and west.
It is great to see the weirder japanese games from Atlus coming (like Persona 4) but it would be great to see some stuff from Rockstar and other western devs.
I don't even know if a price drop to $199 with a pack in like Uncharted would do it.
Although, that Assassins Creed 3 bundle with the white Vita could do it for me. I just hope the side story AC3 game pans out.
They really are not. Well, I guess Soul Sacrifice could do ok.
Uhh they might be big games to you, but those definitely aren't big games in Japan from a sales perspective (outside of maybe Soul Sacrifice).
Yup
I'll probably finish P4 by mid January. After that... if support doesn't start picking up in 2013, I'm going to just trade it in toward a 720/PS4 if pre-orders open up next year. I've loved my Vita to death, but I really wish I'd waited on it like my gut instinct told me. Got burned by buying the 3DS earlier, now I'm getting burned by this 
At least the 3DS has panned out, though.You mean a handheld port of a three year old Wii game isn't something that sells like crazy in Japan?
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
None of those are big releases for Japan except possibly SoulSac, which could break out. The rest likely won't even break 100k though.
God Eater 2 is pretty much the biggest thing on the horizon for Vita and it's multiplatform.
RoninChaos
Member
Agreed. At this point the vita reminds me of the Dreamcast. Good games at launch, then everything falls apart because of piss poor management.
staticneuron
Member
It happens at the start of many consoles life. If it doesn't take off immediately then it is assumed it is dying so all the doom articles have to come fast and hard.
So a whole bunch of big releases are coming out next month and apparently many games are slated for 2013 so the time to act is now.
jimmythepage
Member
To me the lack of a PSP>PSV program was the first wrong step in the whole situation.
It seemed like Sony didn't take account of any of the risks they faced with this console, when they basically had them on the face
It seemed like Sony didn't take account of any of the risks they faced with this console, when they basically had them on the face
BoilersFan23
Member
I was talking about the big developers within SCE themselves, like SCEA Santa Monica, Naughty Dog, Sucker Punch, Guerilla, etc. They do not want to waste their time developing handheld games. They want to develop on the consoles because they are console games liking to game on the big screen.
CoachKevin
Member
Did they ever do the program in Japan?