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[Chris1964]

This post really shouldn't go to waste at the end of this silly thread.

Analysis that focuses on percentage and not raw numbers doesn't lead anywhere. Just from a look on PSP and DS how many of PSP top sellers were around Monster Hunter and what difference does it make if PSP's top 10 represents less than 10% and DS's 20% when software sales of DS are multiple times over those of PSP.

Dreamcast must have been most succesfull console ever with that logic.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Not a problem. I don't have my older charts and material but I can whip some numbers up for you real quick.



And for the flip



That took longer than expected. Anyways this is not a full breakdown of the million sellers, I do not have the time nor patience for that right now, but the information I put up here simply gives an idea of trends.

Who relies on what and what is the base more interested and what rate do these numbers matter.

I have seen people talk about the top 10 lists or whatever not really giving a good picture. I disagree simply because of the numbers. When you look at Nintendo consoles the normally dominate the best sellers with first party, the amount of titles and ratios normally are between 20 to 30% of the ENTIRE INSTALL BASE the top 10 are indicative of anywhere between 20 to 30% of ALL SOFTWARE SOLD. For the PlayStation? We are normally looking at around 11%. The numbers get even more interesting when we use the entire list and so does a clearer picture of what genres the base gravitates towards.

The numbers confirm what should have been pretty obvious. Nintendo has a large following that normally purchases first party titles and concentrate around their offerings.

Sony on the other hand, doesn't. The idea that I have seen alot is that if Sony had first party studios working on Vita games that it would take off. It doesn't look that way when seeing sales numbers like this. Despite the praise Sony may get for their first party titles and the amount of titles they release, it seems that the groups that follow each franchise are smaller and doesn't give that overwhelming impression of support and following like Nintendo titles seem to have. For Sony it might be more profitable for them to court third parties and slowly build their library instead of charging in like they do with their home consoles. I would like to see more first party studios work on the Vita but that is just a personal wish.

The larger list will show a more varied selection of genre's and franchises that get attention on Sony consoles while on Nintendo the sales seem to be skewed towards particular genre and franchises.

I wish I could present all the information I collected but time will only allow me to throw this together and I just hope you seriously think about the numbers here. They only prove my point the more info is added.

Well, I have to say I have a few issues still with your analysis and methodology, some are small mistakes, some are fundamental flaws:

1) The conversation was centered on Japan sales, while instead you've used worldwide shipment data. I'm a bit unsure of the reasoning for this, given the inherent lack of insight it gives to so many 3rd party games versus the pretty well documented Japanese sales tracked since the mid 1990s. Not only would the latter be more relevant to the discussion at hand, but it's a far more accurate and even handed data set to work from.

2) You claim a wider software diversity on PlayStation, yet your own top 10 analysis shows an appreciably greater genre diversity with competitive Nintendo consoles. This just after you claim a top 10 analysis gives good insight into overall audience trends, then you claim a look at wider numbers will show the inverse result. Which is it?

3) You listed software such as Mario Kart Wii, Donkey Kong Country and Super Mario Bros. 3 as non-bundled, when all 3 have been. You've also listed other bundled software without specification (New Super Mario Bros., Gran Turismo 5, etc). And in the "top 10" analysis bundled software is clearly included and not set aside. There seems to be a waffling of setting the criteria here, and the results you're looking at (genre/franchise diversity based on top 10, based on ratios) is going to be inherently skewed when you consider bundling.

4) You're again falling into ratio arguments to arrive at your conclusions, which mean little versus absolutes. To draw an example, in Japan DQVII and DQVIII were the top selling games on PS1 and PS2 and had higher attach rates than any other games in their respective series (with DQIII on FC being the lone exception I believe). DQIX on DS had both a lower attach rate and didn't even make the platform's top 5, yet in the end it's still the best selling Dragon Quest. Using your methodology, there'd be an implied higher interest in Dragon Quest on PS1 or PS2 than DS, yet the absolute figures show the reverse. You're weighting ratio and position higher in your analysis, either of which again are less meaningful measures of performance or audience versus absolute figures.

5) Your overall argument supposses high sales of Nintendo software as indicative of a lack of audience diversity or interest at the lower end. Not only is this a notion completely unsupported by the data you did bring, but the data you used is immediately biased to that result due to a historical lack of insight into 3rd party shipment figures. This is particularly detrimental for NES/SNES, where it looks like you've used Wikipedia figures (?) and that would result in a mixture of cribbled together shipment and sellthrough data from various sources. I'm guessing this is also why you've arbitrairly excluded Game Boy and GBA?


In the end, it seems you're using a questionable data set (shipment figures from disparate sources), applying debatable standards to them (ex: top 10 giving good overall insight... btw, do you work for NPD?), claiming additional statistics for data you didn't bring (ex: wider data analysis shows more genre diversity with PlayStation audience) and ultimately again defaulting to ratios over absolutes to arrive at your predetermined conclusions. I've thought about the numbers, and keeping things polite I'll just say I don't think much about them or your resulting analysis.

 

[metalslimer]

4) You're again falling into ratio arguments to arrive at your conclusions, which mean little versus absolutes. To draw an example, in Japan DQVII and DQVIII were the top selling games on PS1 and PS2 and had higher attach rates than any other games in their respective series (with DQIII on FC being the lone exception I believe). DQIX on DS had both a lower attach rate and didn't even make the platform's top 5, yet in the end it's still the best selling Dragon Quest. Using your methodology, there'd be an implied higher interest in Dragon Quest on PS1 or PS2 than DS, yet the absolute figures show the reverse. You're weighting ratio and position higher in your analysis, either of which again are less meaningful measures of performance or audience versus absolute figures.

This and what Chris said pretty much makes that whole post invalid. The idea that Nintendo console owners are less diverse in their buying habits is pretty funny though. If he's willing to actually do a real breakdown with numbers that would be great

 

[Father_Brain]

On a related note, this bit from a new Eurogamer interview with SCE UK's Fergal Gara stood out to me:

The Vita has been out in the UK for seven months now. What's your honest assessment of its sales performance? Has it met expectations?

Fergal Gara: I'd say it's done reasonably well, but I'm a sales guy and motivated by selling, so I'm never going to say we've done well enough. What's important is we've got great software now as we face into peak. We've seen it time and time again on Sony platforms and others' platforms: when you've got great software you can give it a great push.
So what we're doing now as we face into peak is really backing it hard with marketing money and backing it hard round those software titles. There's a great proposition for consumers to absorb. We've seen people hovering around LittleBigPlanet and Assassin's Creed: Liberation here at the Expo. It's a great example it's got every potential to do very well for the peak.

He goes on to emphasize, once again, that there will not be a price cut this year.

One of the first steps in salvaging a struggling platform is acknowledging that it actually is struggling. That Sony's PR flacks are unwilling to do this with any consistency, even after the 25% downgrade in handheld sales projections and with frank statements like the OP quotes coming from Yoshida, does not bode enormously well for the future.

 

[Kazerei]

I agree that dealing with percentages is silly. In absolute numbers, third parties sold more software on DS than PSP. I don't buy that publishers are put off by the fact that Nintendo games represent a large percentage of software sales on Nintendo platforms.

Edit: I just looked back to where this all started. I don't see anything wrong with listing 100k+ sellers. Pointing out the install base or framing things in percentages isn't helpful.

 

[staticneuron]

Sorry, I just found it easier to do the numbers as a whole. Japan alone has their own unique biases and genre preference. Breaking things down into percentages help me point out what the base prefers. My point was more about what the publishers and devs see because again absolute numbers without context is meaningless. The entire nintendo lists shows an obvious skew or bent because when the numbers are all tailed they actually represent the majority of software sold and the majority of the what the base purchases. Also like I said the top 10 won't show clear genre preference or trends as much but the entire list for nintendo consoles do.

Sony's list do not. And because they don't, no pub or dev would find it reasonable to abandon it especially if it is a favorable genre that they can track (for PS systems it is normally action) and the OP is really talking about worldwide and not just japan alone. So I am not sure why people are deciding to focus on Japan as if it is the sole market which influences most pubs and devs choices on the matter.

I have been going back and forth, to tell you the truth, and lost track of what we were originally talking about so I am going to put this simply, in regards to the OP: All it will take are a few titles that set the general direction that the base will take to. It happens every generation and it may change from console to console. The Vita is isn't setting the charts on fire at all but I do not believe that it will die or get worse simply because Sony is backing it. There is no evidence that they will drop their attempts at wiggling into the hand held market.

No one noticed this post?

First and foremost, Monster Hunter was announced in 2005 on PSP, so just few months after the launch. Secondly, it was not relevant as it is now; previous PS2 entries sold around half a million units, and the IP was unproven on portable hardware. Now, instead, Monster Hunter is one of the biggest IP in the market, though mainly a Japanese phenomenon. It's a brand that sells millions: Portable 3rd is approaching the 5 million mark, while 3G might well be over 2 million units when 4 will be released.

Hence, being a mid–tier game in 2005 doesn't mean anything when the IP has grown so much in the last few years. And lastly, there's no way Soul Sacrifice is going to sell similarly to Monster Hunter, no way.

That is the point he is getting at. Monster hunter blew up on the PSP and at the start of the consoles life no one could have predicted that particular franchise would have ended up being a top seller and driving interest for the console.

It happens every gen. Sometimes there are titles that come out of nowhere (either new or already established) that releases an entry that makes the situation a game changer. No one will know what will happen exactly and harping on what is expected at first may be pointless.

 

[Kazerei]

We're mainly talking Japan, because it's the most important region for Vita (and any handheld). Plus we have numbers there.

My point was more about what the publishers and devs see because again absolute numbers without context is meaningless.

So the context you're adding is that Nintendo titles dominate on Nintendo platforms?

I'd say the absolute numbers speak more than the percentages. In Japan, third parties sold 79MM units of software on the DS, and 59MM on the PSP. Both were very healthy platforms for development, yep. But does the DS seem less appealing if I point out that Nintendo and Pokemon Co. sold 90MM on the DS? It's freakish, I know. But I doubt "the Nintendo skew" is such a concern to publishers; they mainly care how much their own games could sell, in absolute numbers.

As for 3DS and Vita, the difference in absolute hardware and software numbers (even minus Nintendo) is huge. I admire your attempt to make Vita seem more appealing to publishers, but I don't see it.

 

[staticneuron]

Analysis that focuses on percentage and not raw numbers doesn't lead anywhere. Just from a look on PSP and DS how many of PSP top sellers were around Monster Hunter and what difference does it make if PSP's top 10 represents less than 10% and DS's 20% when software sales of DS are multiple times over those of PSP.

Dreamcast must have been most succesfull console ever with that logic.

We're mainly talking Japan, because it's the most important region for Vita (and any handheld). Plus we have numbers there.



So the context you're adding is that Nintendo titles dominate on Nintendo platforms?

I'd say the absolute numbers speak more than the percentages. In Japan, third parties sold 79MM units of software on the DS, and 59MM on the PSP. Both were very healthy platforms for development, yep. But does the DS seem less appealing if I point out that Nintendo and Pokemon Co. sold 90MM on the DS? It's freakish, I know. But I doubt "the Nintendo skew" is such a concern to publishers; they mainly care how much their own games could sell, in absolute numbers.

As for 3DS and Vita, the difference in absolute hardware and software numbers (even minus Nintendo) is huge. I admire your attempt to make Vita seem more appealing to publishers, but I don't see it.

Well for starters, I didn't make the list to show distort the reality of hard numbers. I am not sure why what I posted somehow leads to discussions about how the Dreamcast could be successful.

The numbers that I posted were shipment numbers and they either came from the publisher themselves or fiscal reports.

As far as absolute numbers go, of course it makes a difference "who" is selling because pubs will plan accordingly what to release, especially if it is new IP. Titles like Game party, Active life, Big Beach sports, We ski, EA Sports, Deca Sports, are examples of titles only found on the Wii, that can be seen on the million seller list. It makes sense that they would be greenlit because of the success of party and sports games found on the Wii early on and that consumers seem to bite on despite them being third party. Normally only the biggest pubs and most recognizable titles seem to climb the charts and compete with Nintendo on their own platform so when the base seems like it will latch on to something they will pursue it.

It really doesn't need to be twisted into some sort of metric for success on market, I am just pointing out chances are, the numbers could help pubs find a niche.

I wouldn't like to think I am being over the top or hard to understand here. Which consoles have the largest amount of high selling Party Games? Shooters? Action games? Platformers? Simply put every gen you can see trends emerge early and it is obvious pubs and devs jump on what they see is garnering the most attention. The way I see it, in relation to the Vita, I see more Pubs and devs going safe route especially given the history of Sony. I am sure we will see more shooters and action games grace the console in an attempt to appeal to the base and grow the base in the west. For Japan, I seriously don't have any idea what would lead to a "Sustained" increase in sales outside of a multiplayer type of game, either Action or RPG.

 

[Ponn]

No one noticed this post?

First and foremost, Monster Hunter was announced in 2005 on PSP, so just few months after the launch. Secondly, it was not relevant as it is now; previous PS2 entries sold around half a million units, and the IP was unproven on portable hardware. Now, instead, Monster Hunter is one of the biggest IP in the market, though mainly a Japanese phenomenon. It's a brand that sells millions: Portable 3rd is approaching the 5 million mark, while 3G might well be over 2 million units when 4 will be released.

Hence, being a mid–tier game in 2005 doesn't mean anything when the IP has grown so much in the last few years. And lastly, there's no way Soul Sacrifice is going to sell similarly to Monster Hunter, no way.

So you highlight my point how a game can come out of nowhere and become a hit, and then proceed to claim the same thing could never happen....okay then.

Just to inform you, PSP and Vita Japanese launch line–up were pretty similar; they both had Ridge Racer, Dynasty Warriors, Hot Shot Golf, a fighting game from Capcom; then, Vita had actually more games, but still: the IP that helped PSP to sell at the beginning were not enough on Vita, because things change.

More importantly, PSP had high expectations, prior and during the launch, since it would have had the prequel of Final Fantasy VII, a Grand Theft Auto, and experiences that were not possible elsewhere. Vita has nothing like that.

Yes, they couldn't sell the vita, does that mean they were bad games or didn't show off the Vita's power or were non-existent? I was highlighting how a very similar lineup to the past hardware that covers most genres is suddenly consider "no games" is absurd. Things change but that lineup would be considered good on any system launch related to the consoles power. If PS4 launched with an uncharted, a capcom fighter, a new Hot Shots Golf, a couple new IP's from Square and Sony, Lumines 3 and a Ridge Racer people would be happy. People who live in sales threads really need to get out more and see beyond their myopic views. There are many other factors leading to Vita's poor sales, claiming it has no games is still patently false. And trying to pass off a subjective "well they aren't compelling because I'M not interested in them" doesn't fly either. THAT'S A FACT.

And yes, i've said several times now its missing the future support promises and reassurance from third parties, so why are you bringing it up with me? It's got AC:L and CoD this holiday which are arguably two of some of the larger frachises this gen, but yes very much so after the holidays is looking bleak.

 

[Kazerei]

snip

Sure, I agree that publishers look at platform audience as well as sales numbers. Wii was a real anomaly as far as third party support, but the DS reached a broad audience and had a wide variety of games. Except there was a major genre that publishers wouldn't put on the DS, because the audience was on the PSP: action. So now Monster Hunter is on the 3DS.

3DS sales numbers have been very significantly better than Vita. What context can be added to the sales numbers that would shift publisher opinion?

Yeah, there are still some action games coming to Vita, but sales would have to be huge to make a difference. I guess certain niches, visual novels, and "otaku" games still have an audience on Vita.

 

[Commanche Raisin Toast]

i don't think it's even a matter of having first parties do things themselves vs. having a third party be tasked with making the same game under the supervision of the aforementioned first party dev.

i think it's a matter of being a lot tighter and more strict with those third parties into making something that falls in line with the standards of the first party dev doing the supervising. look at R:BS. had a ton of potential and it was wasted because they were given too long of a leash.

 

[Father_Brain]

That is the point he is getting at. Monster hunter blew up on the PSP and at the start of the consoles life no one could have predicted that particular franchise would have ended up being a top seller and driving interest for the console.

It happens every gen. Sometimes there are titles that come out of nowhere (either new or already established) that releases an entry that makes the situation a game changer. No one will know what will happen exactly and harping on what is expected at first may be pointless.

At the risk of repeating myself, there are two problems with this assessment:

1. Yes, it's certainly true that in December 2005, when MHP was released, no one would have predicted that the franchise would overtake Dragon Quest as Japan's biggest non-Nintendo IP. But saying that MHP's success "came out of nowhere" is overstating things. The fact remains that the series didn't suddenly debut to multimillion-unit sales well into PSP's lifespan; it began on the platform early on, because Capcom, as with most other Japanese third parties, was initially bullish on PSP.

2. It simply doesn't "happen every gen." Neither PS2 nor (excluding first-party titles) DS had any new multimillion-selling franchises in Japan, despite their larger userbases.

Outside Japan, which franchises would you point to as out-of-nowhere successes? GTA? Call of Duty? Well, those are essentially the same story: they appeared, and exploded, on PS2 and PS3/360, respectively, because their publishers were bullish on those platforms before they even launched.

 

[staticneuron]

Sure, I agree that publishers look at platform audience as well as sales numbers. Wii was a real anomaly as far as third party support, but the DS reached a broad audience and had a wide variety of games. Except there was a major genre that publishers wouldn't put on the DS, because the audience was on the PSP: action. So now Monster Hunter is on the 3DS.

3DS sales numbers have been very significantly better than Vita. What context can be added to the sales numbers that would shift publisher opinion?

Yeah, there are still some action games coming to Vita, but sales would have to be huge to make a difference. I guess certain niches, visual novels, and "otaku" games still have an audience on Vita.

I think it is going to be about testing the waters for a while. For some pubs it may be a repeat of last gen. Decent choice versus best choice. The DS had more than twice as many units as the PSP worldwide. In Japan it was along the lines of 75% larger than the PSP base.

But the question comes around, as it has many times in the past, whether or not the larger install base translates into better sales for their games. So for the Vita, there are simply going to be devs/pubs that want to work on the device and/or with Sony and then there are others that are going to experiment if they can sell "more" on the Vita than they would on the 3DS.

Take for instance...

Page 9



Thanks to Chris and his record keeping we know that by the end of march that yer the PSP was at 14.4 million units LTD in Japan and the NDS was at 29.9 million. Both of them received Kingdom Heart titles but despite the NDS base being more than twice as large and the fact that KH:BBS was out for a few months, the franchise still sold more on the PSP than it did on the DS.

I think it is simply a matter of time before we will see examples like this happen again. But within the First year of release for the Vita I doubt we will see anything that we can point too as a firm example yet.

At the risk of repeating myself, there are two problems with this assessment:

1. Yes, it's certainly true that in December 2005, when MHP was released, no one would have predicted that the franchise would overtake Dragon Quest as Japan's biggest non-Nintendo IP. But saying that MHP's success "came out of nowhere" is overstating things. The fact remains that the series didn't suddenly debut to multimillion-unit sales well into PSP's lifespan; it began on the platform early on, because Capcom, as with most other Japanese third parties, was initially bullish on PSP.

2. It simply doesn't "happen every gen." Neither PS2 nor (excluding first-party titles) DS had any new multimillion-selling franchises in Japan, despite their larger userbases.

Outside Japan, which franchises would you point to as out-of-nowhere successes? GTA? Call of Duty? Well, those are essentially the same story: they appeared, and exploded, on PS2 and PS3/360, respectively, because their publishers were bullish on those platforms before they even launched.

Bullish meaning what exactly?

Advertising? Presence?

Simple Fact is that Capcom released Freedom and it did well enough for them to continue on. And it got bigger with each release. The other games you mentioned were also smash hits. They were released and the consumers responded well. Is there some sort of magic I am missing here? Are you saying something was done on the publishers part that instantly made these products a success? If so.... why aren't they doing this for every title they release?

 

[flawfuls]

Thanks to Chris and his record keeping we know that by the end of march that yer the PSP was at 14.4 million units LTD in Japan and the NDS was at 29.9 million. Both of them received Kingdom Heart titles but despite the NDS base being more than twice as large and the fact that KH:BBS was out for a few months, the franchise still sold more on the PSP than it did on the DS.

That isn't comparing apples to apples at all. The KH game on DS is a crappy side story while the one of the PSP was a "mainline" game. Also Days sold better worldwide.

 

[Father_Brain]

Bullish meaning what exactly?

Advertising? Presence?

Simple Fact is that Capcom released Freedom and it did well enough for them to continue on. And it got bigger with each release. The other games you mentioned were also smash hits. They were released and the consumers responded well. Is there some sort of magic I am missing here? Are you saying something was done on the publishers part that instantly made these products a success? If so.... why aren't they doing this for every title they release?

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/bullish

optimistic about something's or someone's prospects <bullish on the company's future>

Meaning that the publishers in question - Capcom, Rockstar, and Activision - expected the platform(s) in question to be extremely successful and allocated development resources accordingly before the hardware launched. To be sure, it was the consumers who turned those franchises from moderately popular ones into sales juggernauts, but it was the publishers' pre-launch hardware projections that ultimately decided what platforms they appeared on.

Which publishers, if any, do you think were bullish on Vita before it launched, and how has that translated (or will that translate) into support? Because I don't think I need to tell you that no one has gotten more bullish on the platform since launch.

 

[staticneuron]

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/bullish



Meaning that the publishers in question - Capcom, Rockstar, and Activision - expected the platform(s) in question to be extremely successful and allocated development resources accordingly before the hardware launched. To be sure, it was the consumers who turned those franchises from moderately popular ones into sales juggernauts, but it was the publishers' pre-launch hardware projections that ultimately decided what platforms they appeared on.

Which publishers, if any, do you think were bullish on Vita before it launched, and how has that translated (or will that translate) into support? Because I don't think I need to tell you that no one has gotten more bullish on the platform since launch.

With the exception of Rockstar, the big pubs/devs that Sold the most on the PSP and even on the PS2 have entries already released/announced for the Vita. Even then I don't think rockstar will pass up the chance to release on the Vita either. What was being talked about in the Op is most likely the smaller pubs/devs who may consider the Vita a huge risk until it picks up.

There are games coming and again it will depend on consumer reaction to any given title.

That isn't comparing apples to apples at all. The KH game on DS is a crappy side story while the one of the PSP was a "mainline" game. Also Days sold better worldwide.

You mean like Chain of memories, which also sold more?

As far as selling more worldwide, I haven't checked the later inv reports but I take it, that it was by a large amount right given the size of each installed base worldwide? Somehow I am a bit doubtful of that, but I will take your word on it.

 

[Kazerei]

snip

Two things, (1) why KH BBS was brought to the PSP, and (2) why KH BBS outsold KH 358/2 Days.

1. Third parties did well on the PSP, hence the continued support. Really, PSP's performance was never nearly as bad as Vita.

2. As install base increases it becomes less of a concern, and eventually it becomes irrelevant. On hardware platforms of let's say over 10 million (probably less than that but whatever), software sales are not going to be limited or affected by the install base. BBS and 358/2 Days are an example of that. It came down to game quality instead.

Vita's install base is still a concern. 3DS install base is 7.6 times the size.

(edit: all of this is considering Japan alone, if it wasn't clear)

 

[Father_Brain]

With the exception of Rockstar, the big pubs/devs that Sold the most on the PSP and even on the PS2 have entries already released/announced for the Vita. Even then I don't think rockstar will pass up the chance to release on the Vita either. What was being talked about in the Op is most likely the smaller pubs/devs who may consider the Vita a huge risk until it picks up.

There are games coming and again it will depend on consumer reaction to any given title.

Well, I suppose your optimism might prove correct if Liberation and Declassified actually sell. We'll find out when we get the November NPD figures in a couple months, won't we?

 

[staticneuron]

Two things, (1) why KH BBS was brought to the PSP, and (2) why KH BBS outsold KH 358/2 Days.

1. Third parties did well on the PSP, hence the continued support. Really, PSP's performance was never nearly as bad as Vita.

2. As install base increases it becomes less of a concern, and eventually it becomes irrelevant. On hardware platforms of let's say over 10 million (probably less than that but whatever), software sales are not going to be limited or affected by the install base. BBS and 358/2 Days are an example of that. It came down to game quality instead.

Vita's install base is still a concern. 3DS install base is 7.6 times the size.

Yes. Yes.

What I am saying simply was already covered in the OP though now I glance back at it.

Yoshida said Vita will become an attractive platform "when we are able to define what PS Vita is." He said Sony needs to show third parties what Vita players buy, and what kind of games work best on the platform. At that point, Sony will be able to entice more developers to support the handheld.

"As we can expand our install base and articulate what works really well on the platform as compared to others, it will get easier for us to be able get support from third parties," he added.

I basically have gone about this in a long way but it is all dependent on consumer reaction to the titles scheduled for release and I seriously doubt the install base will stall.

Well, I suppose your optimism might prove correct if Liberation and Declassified actually sell. We'll find out when we get the November NPD figures in a couple months, won't we?

I guess, but to tell you the truth I am unsure of Declassified being a success. I wouldn't be surprised if titles like persona 4, Ragnarok Odyssey , JSR and even Need for Speed to do better. Declassified doesn't look great and it was made by the same people who did resistance. It could be a coin toss though on if it gets eaten up in the west.

 

[Kazerei]

Yes. Yes.

What I am saying simply was already covered in the OP though now I glance back at it.



I basically have gone about this in a long way but it is all dependent on consumer reaction to the titles scheduled for release and I seriously doubt the install base will stall.

Well you're free to be optimistic I guess. Good luck Sony...

 

[metalslimer]

I basically have gone about this in a long way but it is all dependent on consumer reaction to the titles scheduled for release and I seriously doubt the install base will stall.

In Japan Vita has one of the worst holiday schedules I've ever seen for a platform. The holiday sales will basically stall in comparison to the 3DS.

 

[electroplankton]

As far as selling more worldwide, I haven't checked the later inv reports but I take it, that it was by a large amount right given the size of each installed base worldwide? Somehow I am a bit doubtful of that, but I will take your word on it.

In US alone, 358/2 Days is close to 1 million units sold, while Birth by Sleep sold less than half that amount.

 

[Father_Brain]

Doesn't really need a new thread, IMO, but Gamasutra has a new piece up on the overall state of the Vita platform.

Jim Buck, an SCEA veteran and the founder of Twitchy Thumbs Entertainment (which is working on porting Retro Affect's Snapshot to the Vita) doesn't think those sales have instilled enough confidence in many companies to want to work with the system. Having already seen publishers reluctant to release games on the PSP in the past, he believes Sony started with an uphill battle.

"When [those] PS Vita sales numbers were released, I heard publishers were pulling PS Vita projects as a result," he says. "When developers I know hear that I am working on a PS Vita project, because of those sales numbers, their typical response to me is 'Oh, I'm sorry to hear that.'"

Even though he says PSP's worldwide sales were respectable, Buck thinks "there is some weird knee-jerk superstition when it comes to Sony handheld devices compared to other companies' hardware. I've no idea why, but I do fear that the perception might turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy that could have otherwise been avoided."

"We've known for a while that this back half of the year, the holiday season, is really where Vita will make its mark," says Koller. SCEA expects PS Vita to come out of the holiday in a good position with a considerably larger install base, and it's reassuring publishers with that notion when they mention their concerns to the company about the portable's prospects.

And while Sony's strategy to sell the idea of big-screen experiences on a portable wasn't enough to establish PSP as the leader in the last handheld generation -- something the company blames on the flood of ports that tainted the system's image -- it's doubling down on that plan for PS Vita. If anything, Sony believes it hasn't done enough to emphasize that as the portable's primary strength.

"I think one of the ways that we could have improved the launch is we probably should have had a stronger message around console gaming in your hands, being very overt about that," says Koller, who feels the platform holder wasn't able to focus on that so much because it also needed to highlight PS Vita's unique features. "It does take quite a bit of messaging and marketing to wrap that around consumer's heads."

Even though the console hasn't taken off with consumers yet, most of the developers Gamasutra talked to continue to praise the hardware. "I still have high hopes for the future of PS Vita," says Twitchy Thumbs' Buck. "I think it's far too early to make a bad call on the platform. The platform has been very nice to work with, and my future plans include doing more projects for the PS Vita."

Not everyone is upbeat, however. "Honestly, I am seriously scared about the future," says Icon Games' Hill-Whittall. He's worried that it's taking much longer than his studio expected to develop its PS Vita titles, that pricing for smaller or indie titles on the PSN Store is too low, and that the portable's sales might not pick up anytime soon.

 

[AgentChris]

SCE should convince publishers to allow them to develop games using their IP's. SCE pays for development, uses 1st/2nd party studios and PSV gets big titles. Large chunk of revenue goes to the 3rd party publisher and PSV gets sales.
Examples;
Batman: Arkham Vita by United Front Games
MGS Vita by Naughty Dog
GTA Vita by SCE London
Bully Vita by Sucker Punch
Resident Evil by SCE Bend

 

[sajj316]

Doesn't really need a new thread, IMO, but Gamasutra has a new piece up on the overall state of the Vita platform.

Regarding Icon games .. is this the same concern as this December 2011 article by Venture Beat?

http://venturebeat.com/2011/12/29/ps-vita-development-difficult-and-a-little-scary/

 

[Shaheed79]

Doesn't really need a new thread, IMO, but Gamasutra has a new piece up on the overall state of the Vita platform.

This article reminds of the time when a japanese article about Vita developers canceling and moving projects over to the 3DS was posted on gaf and DCharlie went ballistic. The first topic was closed because he and others claimed that it was a just a speculative rumor. Then, in a new topic, it was proven that it wasn't speculation, but rather actual developer reactions as told by an analyst. A tense debate then began as to whether the word used in the article was meant to reflect singular or plural developers.

I remember that incident well because it was first time I had ever seen DCharlie react so dramatically. I mean he was super pissed off. I don't have a detailed memory of his posting habits, but I know that I felt he was pretty level headed and detached from system loyalty before that incident.

I think the difference between why the PSP was able to receive a lot of games that the DS did not, and the situation between the Vita and 3DS, is simply that the DS wasn't powerful enough to run proper 3D games. Now that the 3DS has alleviated that power limitation, most developers have no reason to avoid putting games on it that just weren't possible with the DS.

Portable games are suppose to be cheap to develop for publishers who make console games, now more than ever. Console games are so expensive that developers need to meet a certain margin of profit from portable games in order to subsidize their console business model. So when portable game development cost begins to approach console game development, in even the slightest, it stops being an attractive proposal for publishers and developers.

So when you have a portable, like the Vita, that is proposing console level games in the palm of your hands, then those games sales had better be comparable to their 360/PS3 cousins in order to even justify the investment. I'm sure that Vita games are cheaper to make than the HD twins but also much more expensive than portable games have ever been.

 

[Takao]

SCE should convince publishers to allow them to develop games using their IP's. SCE pays for development, uses 1st/2nd party studios and PSV gets big titles. Large chunk of revenue goes to the 3rd party publisher and PSV gets sales.
Examples;
Batman: Arkham Vita by United Front Games
MGS Vita by Naughty Dog
GTA Vita by SCE London
Bully Vita by Sucker Punch
Resident Evil by SCE Bend

Sounds like a repeat of the Crash Bandicoot days and SCE would never do that again. Especially not now when it's clear their goal is to try to build successful IPs they own.

 

[staticneuron]

Even though he says PSP's worldwide sales were respectable, Buck thinks "there is some weird knee-jerk superstition when it comes to Sony handheld devices compared to other companies' hardware. I've no idea why, but I do fear that the perception might turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy that could have otherwise been avoided."

I was talking about this earlier.

The PSP was criticized from the end of its first year to the rest of its life at least in my region. The idea that it had no exclusive titles and all games were PS2 port were the largest complaints I have seen but in my experience I didn't see that and anyone who played a PSP regularly didn't seem to have that opinion either. But if that type of stuff grows large and is repeated often, it is hard to combat.

I think this happened because of gamers attitudes in some regions. There were people who criticized the library who obviously weren't aware and convinced others who didn't even bother looking ath the device. The some pubs see the result of this in sales and basically backed off and made the PSP a handheld for a quick cash in.

Vita could go the same route but it is to early to make any real claims of that.