Lol, won't deny reality? Their ignorant hot takes ignore every bit of data and every reasoned argument about what's really happening in favor of useless, misdirected emotional outburst.
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Georgia's 6th Congressional District Special Election |OT| Round 2: Fight!
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
- Start date
Lol, won't deny reality? Their ignorant hot takes ignore every bit of data and every reasoned argument about what's really happening in favor of useless, misdirected emotional outburst.
Blackage
Member
Yep, and Democrats don't vote when they "cant see any difference between the candidates." or vote for a 3rd party to take a stand, so we end up with GOP wins.
Jorok Goldblade
Member
The end result may not feel like a win to some, but turning an R +20 district into a 4 point race should be striking fear into the hearts of Republicans from more competitive districts.
jakonovski
Member
You posted this exact thing before Trump won. Just saying.
Laieon
Member
Houston and most major cities in Texas are just as good. Austin just has better marketing.
If I remember correctly I spent much of pre-Election Day defending 538. I never argued his win was impossible. Unlikely, yes. And it was.
These are two entirely different things though.
balladofwindfishes
Member
It should be, but it won't
I don't even think Republicans losing would have done anything to change their course.
encephalon
Member
I don't really understand the shock that a Republican won in Georgia. I thought the whole reason there has been so much attention on this campaign was because it wasn't supposed to be possible for a Democrat to be competitive?
jakonovski
Member
We're not at the point of imminent elections yet. We're at the point where we wonder who would be good to run for Democrats.
Right now, the Republicans will take this win and go into a frenzy of enacting their agenda of rigging the game and fucking up America.
It should be noted that the only reason there was a special election in the first place was that the Republicans saw GA6 as a safe R district. Ossof sure as hell proved them wrong.
Second, the Democrats won a ton of Specials in 2009 prior to getting absolutely routed in 2010. Same with the Republicans in 2006. A Democratic GA6 would have been apocalyptic for the GOP, since there are enough districts less solidly Republican than GA6 to flip the House many times over. A Republican GA6 might be groundbreaking to a punditocracy and news environment that has an attention span measured in 24 hour increments, but it's really just business as usual.
Second, the Democrats won a ton of Specials in 2009 prior to getting absolutely routed in 2010. Same with the Republicans in 2006. A Democratic GA6 would have been apocalyptic for the GOP, since there are enough districts less solidly Republican than GA6 to flip the House many times over. A Republican GA6 might be groundbreaking to a punditocracy and news environment that has an attention span measured in 24 hour increments, but it's really just business as usual.
plagiarize
Banned
GA-6 was a "can't afford to lose" seat for the GOP. It has never been a "must win" seat for the democrats. But some people are going to seize any chance they can to push the idea that democrats have to turn into the Sanders party.
I thought for sure she had shot herself in the foot after the debates, but a good ol' smear campaign against Ossof still does the trick.
Trump's base is highly motivated and emboldened, and not discouraged by the shitstorm swirling around him - its a witch hunt after all - driven by the liberal fake news media. Vote R down the ticket is the only way we can save America.
Overall, its disappointing, but a good show for Ossof, I don't think its the last we see of him.
And Karen Handel's ideology and actions are repulsive on so many levels.
CitizenCope
Member
I'd love to see a good post or link about this wave I keep hearing about in 2018 to make me feel better about things.
ShironRedshift
Member
Nah. It ain't that simple for them. I mean, they will continue doing that, but they were going to do so anyway. The real difference here is that unlike Democrats, as much as it pains me to say this, Republicans are the ones who don't see things purely in shades of black and white and are actually capable of understanding the concept of nuance. They know this still doesn't bode well for them in 2018, and the only way things could possibly wind up alright for them is if Democrats depress the hell out of themselves and just refuse to show up in midterms. They can get all that, and don't simply freak out or celebrate their hearts out based on whether a race is a loss or a win and are capable of taking the time to analyze the data in context and realize what it does and does not tell them about the future.
Democrats/progressives/leftists could learn a lot from them. I have a disgusting taste in my mouth saying it, but it's truth. The tendency on the left to see things only in terms of victory or defeat and be incapable of applying any more nuance and just viewing all these races exactly the same way is quite frustrating. There are indeed lessons to be learned, but they can't if we don't or refuse to consider the context and just see everything in a binary win/loss light.
Bingo! We've already witnessed the lack of any outrage whatsoever by Repubs and Trump supporters in general. Nobody should be expecting any movement by this Congress on holding the WH to account.
So would I, because all I remember about 2018 is that the electoral map is very friendly to Republicans all things considered (more vulnerable Democrats defending seats). It's not inconceivable that a few close "noble defeats" will end up giving the Rs more power when all is said and done.
I'm not surprised. But I am disappointed. Dems have to prove that we can turn Trump opposition into WINS. So far that's not coming to pass.
We lost the special elections in Kansas, Montana, SC and now GA. Just one win would have been huge for the party.
As we move into the 2018 elections, is getting "close" a lot of those seats going to get us anywhere? We have to win. Some demonstration of that would have been very empowering.
Thanks for trying though GA. Hang in there and let's see if we can do better.
ShironRedshift
Member
Bringing up the subject of voter apathy actually brings up an interesting point that seems to be lost precisely because we're entirely focused on the GA-6 race and not enough eyes were on the SC one since it was expected to be even more of a bloodbath. Quoting myself from elsewhere:
Based on these results, it's quite possible to use Republican apathy to our advantage if we were to be more careful. Money seems to have diminishing returns quite quickly and turning each of these races into huge national affairs just fires up Trump's base to show up. Seems it's much more important to keep things local and let the candidates speak for themselves and if they're getting help from the DNC/DCCC, it has to be done more subtly or else it will backfire.
That of course isn't directly to do with what you're talking about, but it's an interesting thing to keep in mind that is just getting kind of lost in everything else here.
jakonovski
Member
Nuance can change quite rapidly. Your whole thing just rests on the unsupported assumption that repubs have no chance in 2018, based on what, a tighter than usual race in a couple of locations?
The way I see it, Republicans won by doubling down on the crazy. The more Democrats accept that as normal politics, the more I see them losing.
sturgboski
Member
I hate to be defeatist too but Republicans are terrible. However, the one thing they are better than the left at is realizing this is an us vs them thing. The most important thing for them is that their team win as it keeps the party that closely matches their ideals in power and protects them from the left. It is what turns them out in droves as they fall in line. On the left however, we still don't get it. We still thing "eh the Democrats don't match every line item for me, therefore I won't vote or voted third party" without realizing that Dems are the only party that hues closest to their ideals that could win. It is why people in the last election didn't show up, because they didn't fall in love with Clinton.
I hope last fall changed that, where the left realized we need to vote Dem or lose everything we have fought for (and maybe Republicans wake up and realize that on a whole that their party truly hates them) and we flip seats in 2018.
Grizzle_Dat
Banned
Exactly, when you take step back and look at Trump, he has been in office 6 months . What has he done or said in that time which would have caused people who voted for him to change their course and vote democrat ? If anything he is likely to pick up some never Trumpers then to loose existing support.
The party is so desperate to show that Trumps unpopularity is causing the GOP
to loose seats that they they have made every single election as a referendum on
Trump and after they loose they spin that it was a long shot and ignore the hype they just created.
The Dems need to pick their fights more carefully and stop emboldening the other side. This last fumble all but assured that the ACHA is going through.
jakonovski
Member
Democrats should just straight up start ad campaigns that assert Republicanism is the most dangerous ideology on earth. Or whatever the appropriate propagandistic way of conveying that is.
There is no winning trying to act reasonable.
There is no winning trying to act reasonable.
TheCochese
Banned
2017 made races in Kansas, Montana, South Carolina, and Georgia competitive. Step back and consider that for a minute.
Also, Trump's policies havent impacted anyone yet. When the negative effects hit, you'll see even more shift. It's hard to hear be patient, but you need to be.
Also, Trump's policies havent impacted anyone yet. When the negative effects hit, you'll see even more shift. It's hard to hear be patient, but you need to be.
ShironRedshift
Member
Nah. Not just based on that. I expect Mitch McConnell will continue on the path it looks like he's on already, find some way of greasing the wheels of more moderate Republicans in the Senate and get the AHCA passed, one way or the other. Then, given the unpopularity of the bill even among Republicans, that will backfire huge in midterms, just like passing the ACA did for Dems. Nobody likes the AHCA. Absolutely nobody. Not one state views it more favorable than not.
So, if they pass it their gooses are cooked as organizations like the AARP hound the Republicans with ads about how they fucked over senior citizens, a large part of the base for those guys. And if Mitch somehow fails to pass it, that's just as terrible for them since it leaves them with no real accomplishments to talk of going into 2018 and instead makes them look like absolute failures to their base, who couldn't do the simple bare-minimum task of repealing Obamcare despite campaigning HUGE on it in 2016, having majorities in both houses, and having absolutely nothing to show for their efforts despite all their showboating. Nothing to brag about or argue to their base about why they should be re-elected. They'll be completely ineffective.
That's why I'm so confident. Not just the results of the races, but the AHCA is a poisoned chalice for them. Whether they pass it or not, either way will completely destroy them. Either their base will be hit with relentless ads from not only Democrats but also the AARP if they pass it, or they don't and their seen as failures, and not even their base is stupid enough to accept that that can be blamed on Democrats since even they know that doesn't pass the smell test, and why elect those guys again if they can't do the bare minimum? There's no winning play for them. One way or another, Obamacare will be their graves.
Getting power over every single branch in 2016 was the worst thing that could have happened to them and they were in no way prepared for it, which shows not only in terms of how Trump's government is still an absolute skeleton government with not so much as nominations for a ton of positions even now, but Republicans were caught with their pants down when they actually ended up winning and didn't have an actual coherent strategy for how they were going to repeal the ACA ready at first, and hemmed and hawed about what they were going to do at first instead of letting Trump have it as some fist 100 days victory.
And this is all without even considering other possibilities on top of the ACA/ACHA and the current polling situations/races. I mean, Trump has yet to face any type of true national disaster yet. Hurricane season just started. If any of the Gulf states get hit by a big one, who knows how Trump will react to that and with so many government agencies being understaffed, how well that will go over for him. Of course, that's something I hope doesn't happen for obvious reasons, but point being there's a lot of time left for Trump to do stuff like that and really hurt himself with even his base, just like Bush did with Katrina, on top of the poisoned chalice of the ACHA.
All that together is why I'm still optimistic about Democrats chances in 2018 despite Ossoff's loss, not just the tightening of a few races.
You'd think that'd work, but that just makes people think the republicans are being unfairly attacked. Hell, the entire shtick of the republican party is playing the victim. Mean liberals are assaulting our free speech, mean liberals are assaulting freedom of religion, mean liberals are stopping us from getting government out of the way, mean liberals are attacking white people, etc.
Basically, they don't believe the news media, they sure as hell won't believe a party.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
Too many here don't understand Republican support. Illuminati conspiracy, flat Earthers, Alex Jones fans, Sean Hannity fans, creationists, science bashers, racists, etc., they are spending all their free time convincing themselves that globalists are working against them.
Imagine if the US had BI, look at the ones who want coal to magically come back, they would spend even more of their time fueling their cultish behaviour, cultivating fear and hatred of an imaginary enemy.
The US has a serious problem for decades to come. Right wing media has made people irreversibly crazy.
Imagine if the US had BI, look at the ones who want coal to magically come back, they would spend even more of their time fueling their cultish behaviour, cultivating fear and hatred of an imaginary enemy.
The US has a serious problem for decades to come. Right wing media has made people irreversibly crazy.
The debate wasn't exactly a slam-dunk for Ossof, either. Throughout the whole thing he kept robotically dipping back to the same canned sales pitch with precious little variance in phrasing; Very Rubio-esque.
Handel did badly as well, no doubt, but in a battle of which base is going to best gloss over a bad performance by their candidates, it most definitely ain't gonna be Dems. Trump's living proof of that.
We need Democratic candidates that can definitively win debates and win battles of personality, not ones who can simply tread water in the blandest way possible.
jakonovski
Member
Welp, that's a well thought out argument I'll say. I truly hope you end up being right.
Great post, I agree. It reminded me of this Krugman column from early May.
A result can be both disappointing and encouraging, and Ossoff's loss is.
water_wendi
Water is not wet!
Laieon
Member
You could still be good and loving while being naive and ignorant, they're not exactly opposites. I've met a lot of really good people in my lifetime who just aren't the brightest bulb in the box.
water_wendi
Water is not wet!
Half (50%) of the electorate in America doesnt even bother to vote because they have nothing to vote for.
ryutaro's mama
Member
You pushed a series you had no business winning to a Game 7 and lost. You takeaway is that Democrats will be dispirited and the other side will gloat. And fuck you Ossoff for still failing in the end?
This is a horrible position to have and further proof that politics have been effectively turned into sports for most people.
And for some that means, when they lose (rather than taking that as motivation to dig in and fight harder going forward) it means pouting and taking their proverbial ball and going home.
It's an emotional response, but there's an important bit to it where all the trying in the world doesn't matter if you don't actually get anything done. You just wasted everyone's time and money in the process.
Brawly Likes to Brawl
Member
It feels like GAF has been taken over by Nihilism since November.
jakonovski
Member
Is there anything smaller coming where the Dems might win? Or is it all just a big double or nothing come midterms?
Flip the governor's mansion in NJ this fall. Possibly flip the VA state house, but that's a longer shot. Retain the VA governor's mansion (which is an absolute must).
FreedomFighter
Member
I'll assume you missed the "I don't know who the blame for this" and you're just acting out due to disappointment of this lose.
Yup the SC election was 3 points and Trump won that by 18 points
ryutaro's mama
Member
So the alternative is to stop "wasting everyone's time and money" and throw up your hands and quit?
Anything worth having is worth fighting for. Jerry West, one of the greatest basketball players ever, lost multiple championships before finally winning one. If he had your mindset, he would have given up a lot sooner.
andthebeatgoeson
Junior Member
So Bernie and his supporters figured out another way to lose an election?
God, it's the same inane BS we heard before Nov 8.
Bu, bu, bu the data, the reality, the demographics.
Watch ACHA pass, watch Trump not getting impeached, watch Trump maybe even doing a second term.
Cow Mengde
Banned
Democrats won't win because people find way to blast Sanders for something he has no part in.
Sanders party. Christ.
kiunchbb
www.dictionary.com
Democrats "Biggest concern" isn't winning, but having to *GASP* move left.
Democratic party is in a death spiral.
If Democrats move any further left, I'll vote Republican or just stop voting to be honest.
BrutishMrFish
Member
Considering that every single candidate that's furthest to the left has done worse than those who aren't, it's a rational fear. It's reasonable to be afraid of a strategy that has demonstrably failed every single time.
Hillary was to the left of Obama and did worse than he did, and Bernie was to the left of Hillary and did worse than she did. And as far as non-presidential races go, Feingold, Teachout, Kim, and Minter all lost by higher margins than Hillary. Feingold is important because he was fairly liked, campaigned hard in Wisconsin on Bernie's platform, and still lost by a margin of 3.4%. Hillary had high unfavorables, didn't campaign in Wisconsin at all, and still did better than he did with a loss of only 0.8%. And this was in a state with mostly white people, the kind of place where Bernie's platform does best.
I would love for this country to go further to the left, but you guys acting like it's the one thing that's going to motivate Democrats to get out to vote in large enough numbers to win have yet to be proven right. Whatever excitement there is for far left candidates clearly doesn't translate into votes.
jakonovski
Member
If not going further left, what do the Democrats have to offer? In real terms. They're not Trump, I'll give you that.
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