I'd be surprised. I see it doing 10 million at least between PS5 and PC (it is unlikely to do as well as the original in Japan, given the software situation there).
I have various reasons for my prediction, incidentally. It's not just about the change of protagonist.
- The first one was already fairly bloated and tiring and by the end of it and personally I was absolutely done with the game and started skipping stuff.
- The sequel doesn't seem to promote any significant upgrade or change to the formula (or the tech) so far. Maybe too soon to say, but if they had something notable they'd probably highlight it immediately.
- Admittedly the bossgirl protagonist is a turn-off in itself too, in a market still predominantly male-populated where the concept is being so overly-saturated recently, this may backfire.
- She's not just "a woman" in general, but one that seem almost purposefully designed to minimize any of her feminine traits (I watched through the trailer the first time constantly second-guessing if she was one or not until the camera made finally clear) so she won't even be able to rely on that type of "Nier Automata-like" appeal for the hot main character to hook in a predominantly male audience.
- Rabid Sony fanboys will defend it aggressively, of course, but we'll have to see if this will be enough.