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That's pretty much where I'm at ever since they announced the Scorpio. Anything lower then that and it's going to be a surprise.
I was actually expecting $449 to more closely compete with the Pro at launch. $499 isn't a bad price either, but Sony still comes out ahead with a cheaper console by $100, if not more if Sony swings for a price drop this fall.
Sony could announce a price drop tomorrow if they wanted to, even a slight one. That would control the narrative.
I'd expect a price drop in September if Sony were to do one this year.