If they were destined to fail and it played out that way the series would be over in two more episodes.
I don't know how the power arc of EW goes, but in original XCOM2012, after a big event probably coming in five or six episodes, the rest of the game would be a cakewalk. Hopefully it's balances better here.
It's a bit more balanced but the endgame is still easier than early game for sure.
However, that's only if you had a good early game. With how things went, they'll be challenged right to the end:
- They will most likely loose at least 2 countries by the end of the month, and the rest of asia is most likely screwed as well. This will limit their income ceiling (and asia has one of the best continent bonuses, only africa is better). It's also were their only satelite is so far.
-They've been slow to put up satelites, again, this will impact their already low funds. They also need to build alien containment and planes to protect their new satelites. Planes that will soon be inadequate to face the stronger UFO's.
-They are behind on research, not too much, but still.
-It will take a long time to get a 6th squad member because getting a unit to captain will take much longer now.
One point in their favor is that they've been really lucky on terror missions. They can happen starting the second month and they are nearing the end of the third. If they can make it to the next month without one, they'll be in a good place to face crystallids.
If they wipe again in the next 2 episodes they are done.
Even with Vinny helping a bit, the point where they could cruise is far, far off if it ever comes. And it's not like Vinny is offering expert advice either.
