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Glixel Interviews with Tim Sweeny (Epic) on the Future of VR and the Metaverse

Zalusithix

Member
Warms my heart to see the Vive outselling the Rift despite the higher price point. Better product, better company behind the product.

With an apples to apples comparison though, it isn't. Rift + Touch >= Vive cost. The Rift is only lower in price when you ignore Touch, and VR without tracked controllers is far less interesting.
 

bluexy

Member
I saw this as well and chose to ignore it because it's the least interesting part of the article. Platform warz are stupid, especially for a technology still in it's early stages.

It's less platform wars so much as information that goes completely against everything that's been said or shown officially up to this point.By all accounts, Oculus should have market control by a staggering degree. If there's any truth to the HTV outselling the Rift, it'd be insane.

With all indications that the HTC Vive is selling at expected rates, if not a bit lower than expected, a 2:1 sale rate over Oculus would imply a complete crash for the Rift. The Rift is supposed to be selling anywhere from 2-5x the rate the HTC Vive is.

Frankly, I don't believe it for a second. More than that, I'm kind of flabbergasted that a guy like Sweeney would say something like that. Which is why I'm pretty confused.
 

Tagyhag

Member
To be fair without Oculus this generation of VR wouldn't have made it so far so quickly.

Yep, we obviously can't deny the impact that Oculus has had on VR.

But their view of what VR should be is not what a consumer should want. You'd be acting against your own interests.
 

Durante

Member
It's less platform wars so much as information that goes completely against everything that's been said or shown officially up to this point.By all accounts, Oculus should have market control by a staggering degree.
Why? Based on which information?

The Rift is supposed to be selling anywhere from 2-5x the rate the HTC Vive is.
Supposed by whom and for which reason?
 

Data West

coaches in the WNBA
I like the Vive deal more but if I ever wanted to invest in VR I only really have the space for a headset and I don't think Vive offers that.
 

n0razi

Member
Also, Oculus needs to get on board with Valve's open source Lighthouse tracking solution.

Their current optical tracking is more limited, CPU intensive and cumbersome by a large margin.
You need three sensors for "experimental" roomscale, and they each need a USB port.

Inside out tracking will make both obsolete soon anyways
 

Huggy

Member
I like the Vive deal more but if I ever wanted to invest in VR I only really have the space for a headset and I don't think Vive offers that.

When I was about to trace the chaperone barrier, I believe SteamVR presented me a stationary-only option.
 
I like the Vive deal more but if I ever wanted to invest in VR I only really have the space for a headset and I don't think Vive offers that.

It absolutely does, there is a built-in mode for using a single tracker for seated play. Many of Vive's best games utilize roomspace, but the option exists, and there are a number of games that function just fine that way. Here is a thread with some recommendations.

Plus, with ReVive, many Oculus games can be played on the Vive as well, which before recent updates were all designed as a seated experience.
 

Data West

coaches in the WNBA
It absolutely does, there is a built-in mode for using a single tracker for seated play. Many of Vive's best games utilize roomspace, but the option exists, and there are a number of games that function just fine that way. Here is a thread with some recommendations.

Plus, with ReVive, many Oculus games can be played on the Vive as well, which before recent updates were all designed as a seated experience.

But they don't sell it solo. I don't want to buy a bunch of pieces I'm not going to be able to use.
 
But they don't sell it solo. I don't want to buy a bunch of pieces I'm not going to be able to use.

Ultimately it would be one piece you don't use, comes with 2 trackers and you'd only use 1. Plus you'd be future proof in case you decided to try roomscale at any point in the future.
 
I'm glad Occulus got the VR ball rolling; because it's honestly very cool. BUT; they can go and fuck a tree for all I care. Vive is technologically better, and is also an open platform as well. Buying exclusivity and closing off your store front is not something I agree with.
 
Sweeney nails my deepest fears about most software/hardware in general. The sheer efforts of many companies to create closed platforms certainly hints that without extreme consumer backlash it's a very real reality already. People want what they want though, and if you implement anti-consumer policies slowly over time you can seemingly get away with almost anything. I've had too many conversations and discussions with people lately where they simply don't care as long as they can get the items they want and aren't overly inconvenienced. In fact it often goes the opposite direction where they are adamantly defending companies they owe absolutely no loyalty to whatsoever.

His overview about the direction of games is also seemingly very accurate. I hope there will always be people who are still addressing the market to which I belong that create standalone, fun experiences and intricate narratives etc. I think if we ever reach the point where Moba's, MMO's, hero shooters, always online/interactable etc. are the vast majority of what's being produced, then that's when I'd probably transition from games and focus more on reading, TV and film as my primary hobbies.

One thing about the 12 year prediction and the compute power necessary for it:
If we assume that we have sufficiently fast and accurate eye tracking by then to only ever need to render the exact part of the scene we are looking at in detail, and rendering pipelines built around making full use of that, then it becomes quite a bit more viable IMHO.

Just thought I'd include a few examples to help illustrate what you're talking about. As inevitably there are people who are curious about this stuff but haven't kept up.

https://youtu.be/lNX0wCdD2LA

https://youtu.be/NZaQEQrk15A

https://youtu.be/GKR8tM28NnQ

I sincerely cannot wait for this, but I know a huge issue currently is trying to compensate for the endless variations of eye shape, size, movements from person to person. This is the feature of VR that excites me most.
 
as more competition is coming from pc marker like dell, hp, lenovo, asus, and other companies, this does not bode very well for oculus. in general the pioneer of a new tech is always very strong

what went wrong with oculus? must be some kind of missmanagement
at least they have the partnership with samsung on gear vr
 

Arulan

Member
It's less platform wars so much as information that goes completely against everything that's been said or shown officially up to this point.By all accounts, Oculus should have market control by a staggering degree. If there's any truth to the HTV outselling the Rift, it'd be insane.

With all indications that the HTC Vive is selling at expected rates, if not a bit lower than expected, a 2:1 sale rate over Oculus would imply a complete crash for the Rift. The Rift is supposed to be selling anywhere from 2-5x the rate the HTC Vive is.

Frankly, I don't believe it for a second. More than that, I'm kind of flabbergasted that a guy like Sweeney would say something like that. Which is why I'm pretty confused.

I'd also like to know your official sources for this information.

The last sales analysis I came across was this one from SuperData Research, from November, and has their end of year forecast at:

Previous estimates for HTC Vive, Oculus Rift and Gear VR remain unchanged at 450k, 355k and 2.3 million, respectively.
 
"what went wrong with oculus? must be some kind of missmanagement"


They lost a ton of momentum between their massive shipping bungle and Touch being delayed to the end of the year. While Oculus was still backordered into June/July, Vive was at the point where they were shipping the same day they were ordered.
 
Having to catch up to roomscale AND motion controllers you can see in VR with you was a massive stumbling block for them. It's the full package that makes VR compelling - simply seeing another world is cool, but not enough.
 

FlyinJ

Douchebag. Yes, me.
"what went wrong with oculus? must be some kind of missmanagement"


They lost a ton of momentum between their massive shipping bungle and Touch being delayed to the end of the year. While Oculus was still backordered into June/July, Vive was at the point where they were shipping the same day they were ordered.

Also the closed-garden approach turned a lot of people off initially.

Later, Palmer Luckey sneaking around founding/funding an alt-right organization.
 
I remember an old professor talking about how Pixar originally intended to have a real time version of Renderman. It would be developed side by side. And maybe one day it would catch up to where OpenGL is today. Shame it never panned out.

Super interesting to hear Sweeney talk so openly. Was thinking recently that I miss Rein's hot takes on things. Even if he came off as arrogant some times, he was bang on about stereoscopic. That shit is old news now.
 
"Also the closed-garden approach turned a lot of people off initially.

Later, Palmer Luckey sneaking around founding/funding an alt-right organization."


I honestly don't think the closed-garden thing really makes a difference to most people. And the discovery of Palmer's alt-right fuckery happened at such a late point in the year that I don't think it altered the overall sales trajectory of the headsets by much. And ultimately most people don't care about it.
 

Compsiox

Banned
"Also the closed-garden approach turned a lot of people off initially.

Later, Palmer Luckey sneaking around founding/funding an alt-right organization."


I honestly don't think the closed-garden thing really makes a difference to most people. And the discovery of Palmer's alt-right fuckery happened at such a late point in the year that I don't think it altered the overall sales trajectory of the headsets by much. And ultimately most people don't care about it.

I'm curious. Why don't you use the quote formatting?
 

Durante

Member
I honestly don't think the closed-garden thing really makes a difference to most people.
As much as it pains me to say it, that is probably true in the grand scheme of things.

However, VR is not yet in the grand scheme of things, and won't be for a while yet.

When your primary target audience is a few million high-end PC gamers and enthusiasts (at best), I believe that things that would probably fly with minor issues in the "mass market" can certainly make a difference.
 
Anyword on 3D tv's sold in their first year.

For comparison

What would be the point of that comparison? People buy TVs for reasons other than 3D, and 3D was included in all but the lowest budget models of TVs. Even someone buying a 3D TV, it's primary use was never going to be just 3D viewing.

At these prices, people are buying VR headsets primarily or exclusively for VR software.
 

Maiden Voyage

Gold™ Member
It's less platform wars so much as information that goes completely against everything that's been said or shown officially up to this point.By all accounts, Oculus should have market control by a staggering degree. If there's any truth to the HTV outselling the Rift, it'd be insane.

With all indications that the HTC Vive is selling at expected rates, if not a bit lower than expected, a 2:1 sale rate over Oculus would imply a complete crash for the Rift. The Rift is supposed to be selling anywhere from 2-5x the rate the HTC Vive is.

Frankly, I don't believe it for a second. More than that, I'm kind of flabbergasted that a guy like Sweeney would say something like that. Which is why I'm pretty confused.

VR is in it's infancy so I don't think either system is a crash. I am also confused, as others said, as to why you expected the Rift to outpace the Vive by so much.

Truthfully, I find the following quote a much more interesting bit:
It was a budget that could never be funded just on the basis of sales.

It seems the smaller titles at home on Early Access on Steam might be the only titles earning a profit at this time.
 
Not from what tech heads have been saying. Even 12 years in console terms is alot and that's more established. in 2005 the Xbox 360 was released and people were questioning if it was really different from the PS2 in the graphics department.

Now 12 years later we literally have a console strong enough to run VR games well. Big jump!

I hope so. I thought wireless VR would be at least another year off so maybe things are moving faster than I thought. The sooner the better :)
 
I agree with a lot of what Tim is saying, but then Epic has by a large margin been supporting Oculus/Facebook with exclusive software and demos so... y'know? Money where your mouth is?

I think he kind of did by posting this and making rather blunt comments about opening the platform up. What else can he do? Stop growing epic?
 

Maiden Voyage

Gold™ Member
"Also the closed-garden approach turned a lot of people off initially.

Later, Palmer Luckey sneaking around founding/funding an alt-right organization."


I honestly don't think the closed-garden thing really makes a difference to most people. And the discovery of Palmer's alt-right fuckery happened at such a late point in the year that I don't think it altered the overall sales trajectory of the headsets by much. And ultimately most people don't care about it.

With a higher userbase having Steam accounts, it might make a difference. I'll use myself as an example. I own both Vive and Rift + Touch. I bought Space Pirate Trainer on Oculus because it came bundled with 4 other games. My buddy that has a Vive and has Space Pirate Trainer and I cannot see each other's scores. I have 17 friends on Steam and 1 on Oculus. I am not going to be buying any multiplayer games on Oculus anymore. The pack of games was the only thing I have bought on the Oculus store since getting the Rift. I don't even want to look at how much I spent on VR games on the Steam store.
 
It's less platform wars so much as information that goes completely against everything that's been said or shown officially up to this point.By all accounts, Oculus should have market control by a staggering degree. If there's any truth to the HTV outselling the Rift, it'd be insane.

With all indications that the HTC Vive is selling at expected rates, if not a bit lower than expected, a 2:1 sale rate over Oculus would imply a complete crash for the Rift. The Rift is supposed to be selling anywhere from 2-5x the rate the HTC Vive is.

Frankly, I don't believe it for a second. More than that, I'm kind of flabbergasted that a guy like Sweeney would say something like that. Which is why I'm pretty confused.

Why wouldn't you believe that dedicated high end PC gamers are buying the HMD which is an all in one package. Was easy to get comparitively and has the best tracking system that allows for experiences the others cannot offer? That's not even including the push by oculus to go closed ecosystem and Palmer Luckey's crap.

The Vive I think is pretty easy to look at and say this is the best hardware of the three available.
 
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