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[Ether_Snake]

The rejected troika proposal wasn't light at all, and pretty much moved over several of syriza's red lines. I don't really see that the Troika would have rejected their own deal if Greece said yes then because it was offered as last offer, and time run out and it was harsh. If Tsipras plan was for a yes in the referendum, then that actually helps the troika's goal even if they bring back the same deal that the greek goverment rejected. It shows that fighting for anti austerity isn't successful. Now, if they bring up harsher deal, then who knows what happens.

What Tsipras wants is a debt cut and one program instead of an extension of the next program for some months and after that negotiation for a new program and even more increase in austerity. That, and to limit austerity somewhat and also focus more on certain areas over others the lenders support.

Where the referendum can be helpful is in legitimizing what the Greek goverment will do next. However I am afraid of a yes result weakening Greece bargaining position. Not only now, but in the future. That and there is the issue that the austerity program isn't working.

What you will see is the Troika hoping for a crisis in Greece, with chaos and all that. When it doesn't materialize, they will panic because they know Greece will come back with a signed piece. They don't want a deal, unless it is unpopular enough to dissuade people from voting for such parties. There is no reason for the Troika to make the demands it has made, other than to placate anti-austerity parties against the wall and make them admit they are losers in this. To say that for Greece to recover they have to do what's in the proposal is bull, and the Troika knows it, but that's not the goal of the proposals, it's only to make people believe or accept that austerity is needed. They don't want an anti-austerity precedent to be set, at all cost.

 

[Coriolanus]

New thread.

 

[Yamauchi]

LOL, right, that's why the Eurozone has poured so much money into Greece, knowing that they would never get it back in full, and continued to offer to do so. The ECB stretching their own rules to limit to keep the Greek bank system alive with ELAs that begin to border on the illegal, that's all part of a propaganda campaign to 'punish' Greece.

Man, these conspiracy theories some people have... It's always nice to have a simple David-vs-Goliath narrative to explain the world.

You don't really know anything about economics, do you? I will point you to a piece by Paul Krugman, the Nobel-winning economist, who states nearly exactly what I stated in a slightly more benign fashion: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/06/25/breaking-greece/

Talk to IMF people and they will go on about the impossibility of dealing with Syriza, their annoyance at the grandstanding, and so on. But we’re not in high school here. And right now it’s the creditors, much more than the Greeks, who keep moving the goalposts. So what is happening? Is the goal to break Syriza? Is it to force Greece into a presumably disastrous default, to encourage the others?

Yes, indeed, all of us 'people', including a Nobel winning economist, are just conspiracy theorists.

 

[Reuenthal]

What you will see is the Troika hoping for a crisis in Greece, with chaos and all that. When it doesn't materialize, they will panic because they know Greece will come back with a signed piece. They don't want a deal, unless it is unpopular enough to dissuade people from voting for such parties. There is no reason for the Troika to make the demands it has made, other than to placate anti-austerity parties against the wall and make them admit they are losers in this. To say that for Greece to recover they have to do what's in the proposal is bull, and the Troika knows it, but that's not the goal of the proposals, it's only to make people believe or accept that austerity is needed. They don't want an anti-austerity precedent to be set, at all cost.

A Yes result doesn't leave an anti-austerity precedent. They will be saying that a negotiation of several months didn't leave any positive results in limiting austerity. So you are right, they want a deal that is unpopular enough to dissuade people of voting for such parties, I believe the rejected troika proposal fits their criteria.

Anyway, pretty much everyone from Syriza is saying to vote No. They want the No result. And the pro EU and troika proposals parties are saying to vote Yes.

 

[Ether_Snake]

A Yes result doesn't leave an anti-austerity precedent. They will be saying that a negotiation of several months didn't leave any positive results in limiting austerity. So you are right, they want a deal that is unpopular enough to vote for such parties, I believe the rejected troika proposal fits their criteria.

Anyway, pretty much everyone from Syriza is saying to vote No. They want the No result. And the pro EU and troika proposals parties are saying to vote Yes.

A Yes result means that in the end, Syriza was still the best placed party to defend the Greek people, and this is how it's a precedent. You think people in Spain will vote for pro-austerity parties after this? They'll say "look, it's better to vote for Podemos, worst comes to worst we'll still go in line with the Troika when our turn comes, but at least it will be with a party that is against austerity and does what it can to stand up to them", not "let's vote for pro-austerity to save ourselves a few months of negotiations and take the whole punch to the face right now, we surrender!".

The biggest losers in this will have been the Troika, the IMF. Their reputations are screwed, any party's association in their favor will be political suicide.

Also, if they do vote yes and things work out with the Troika, you better hope to God that Greece will now recover, otherwise it's even clearer to everyone that they'll need to keep their anti-austerity grounds. If Greece accepts and it's still a catastrophe, as austerity always is, everyone will see it.

 

[ModBot]

New thread.

Moving discussion here.