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[Coriolanus]

Deutsche Post was a heavily subsidized, horribly bloated mess when it was privatized and is now the global leader in logistics. They pay around a billion bucks in dividends a year and therefore contribute a couple hundred million to the yearly budget, as Germany still owns 20% of the company. So yeah, it took a few years to sort things out but they're doing very well now. Like all things, privatizations have to be done right, but if they're done right, they make a ton of sense.

At which point one must point out that it is quite bloody unlikely that a country in a situation as desperate as Greece would be able to acquire favorable terms, especially with creditors breathing down their neck to push them to accept whatever terms they get.

With stunning results.

You do know that the creditors have been having a hand in greek economic policy for quite a while longer than syriza has? With stunning results. Come on, mate, be fair.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Deutsche Post was a heavily subsidized, horribly bloated mess when it was privatized and is now the global leader in logistics. They pay around a billion bucks in dividends a year and therefore contribute a couple hundred million to the yearly budget, as Germany still owns 20% of the company. So yeah, it took a few years to sort things out but they're doing very well now. Like all things, privatizations have to be done right, but if they're done right, they make a ton of sense.

Deutsche Post is also a single company in a very different industry. If we're going to quote examples of individual anecdotes, I invite you to look no further than the United Kingdom's National Rail, which is much more directly comparable to airports, and has seen profit fall and customer value fall since privatization, and requires increasingly heavy subsidies from government (more than the government put in when they ran it) just to do basic tasks.

Great, we've both quoted one-off examples at each other. What have we achieved? Fuck all. You've yet to provide a) any evidence specific to this set of privatizations that anything good will occur, and, *much* more importantly and ideally I'd like you to focus on this in any reply you make, b) any evidence that privatizing these actually helps the Greek government meet it's short- and medium-term budget commitments over the next decade to fifteen years.

 

[Condom]

Optimizing your budget income is like the most important job of a government. If Syriza isn't capable of even doing that why would you want to invest even more money into that country?

The budget isn't a mathematical calculation.

EDIT: To clarify: It's a sum of priorities. You choose to fit in what fits your vision as a government (body), you can't have a perfect budget because of that.

 

[Theonik]

Frapport isn't some low-tier company but operates airports in all parts of the world successful.

And the most important point of the deal was that they are just leasing the airports, so the ownership of the airports will not change.

Fraport is only interested in leasing the resources that are profitable. The whole benefit from privatising infrastructure in this way is when you make it a case of cost cutting as well. In this arrangement the Greek government still needs to pay to run the less profitable regional airports but loses revenue from the profitable ones which it uses to subsidise the former.

Also they might as well sell them, because in 40 years they will have to effectively rebuild them anyway, which is why Fraport is saving money here knowing this. Airports are REALLY expensive, especially since they are only going for the very vital tourist trap international airports.

Edit: The Athens airport alone cost 2.1bn Euro to construct in fact.

 

[Rafy]

Yes, they fall under the second part of my statement - "unless you are trying to". Regional airports aren't kept open to make money. They're kept open to act as a public service - i.e., to allow communities like those on Rhodos to actually continue living there instead of having to move to mainland Greece and abandon all of your roots and background. Because they're not kept open to make money, private companies won't take them over unless they're offered subsidies. At the point, you end up with a *massive* agent-principal problem, where private companies have a massive incentive to exaggerate costs in order to get greater degrees of subsidies.

As someone who is from Rhodes I can tell you that without the airport my dad would be out of business and I would not be able to visit my family. We are a Greek-Italian family so we need to travel from one country to another. It's more than just a public service, it endorses local businesses as it's the only way the economy there can work since it's 99% based on tourism.

As for the big picture, my whole family would have to move here in Italy if shit goes down. With my sister just a year away from graduating high school in Greece (which means she would be behind in school here), my dad would have to set-up his business here again, not to mention we'd be stuck with a house in Greece that would be impossible to sell and paying taxes on it. Shit show all around...

 

[Deleted member 231381]

As someone who is from Rhodes I can tell you that without the airport my dad would be out of business and I would not be able to visit my family. We are a Greek-Italian family so we need to travel from one country to another. It's more than just a public service, it endorses local businesses as it's the only way the economy there can work since it's 99% based on tourism.

As for the big picture, my whole family would have to move here in Italy if shit goes down. With my sister just a year away from graduating high school in Greece (which means she would be behind in school here), my dad would have to set-up his business here again, not to mention we'd be stuck with a house in Greece that would be impossible to sell and paying taxes on it. Shit show all around...

Yup, exactly. Handing that over to a private company would be absolutely disastrous. I'm really sorry for your situation.

 

[Randomizer123454444]

Let me start by saying that I think we (EU) haven't handled this crisis very well.

However, the milk was spilled a long time ago, when Greece took so much debt that it couldn't pay back. NOBODY forced Greece to take the debt that started this crisis initially. As I said, EU hasn't exactly been constructive. From my point of view it seems that all of the measures have been to delay the massive crash, not to prevent it. But EU is not the core issue here. Core issue is that Greece is fundamentally broken. It was broken when this crisis started, and it hasn't been fixed since. The first sign of being broken was taking increasing amounts of debt. Instead of attempting to fix things, the debt issues were hidden away until situation blew in the face. Everyone was taken by surprise.

Good solutions might have been possible BEFORE debt mountain started to collapse. Now I don't see good solutions, only painful ones. I don't think EU can provide a solution. This leaves the default. What I'm worried about is that instead of uniting, rolling up their sleeves and starting the hard work, people of Greece will be too busy stewing in the hatred and blame game of EU to do anything about their own situation.

Best of luck Greece, and I hope your situation will turn for the better during this decade.

 

[Rafy]

Yup, exactly. Handing that over to a private company would be absolutely disastrous. I'm really sorry for your situation.

I just hope that Greece can last one more year, so my sister can graduate high school. The plan was for them to move here in a year anyway but if it goes down now it really throws in a wrench in our plan and the one that is hurt the most is my sister. As if leaving everything behind at 17 is not already painful, having to endure upwards of two or more extra years of high school when university was just a year away...

It's either that or the family splits in two for a year with my dad joining me here while my mom and sister stay behind for her to finish school.

If there is one thing I blame my dad for is not allowing my mom to work when they got married, we'd be better off now as a family...

Sorry for the rant, I am just so anxious because I am not there...

 

[PdotMichael]

Fraport is only interested in leasing the resources that are profitable. The whole benefit from privatising infrastructure in this way is when you make it a case of cost cutting as well. In this arrangement the Greek government still needs to pay to run the less profitable regional airports but loses revenue from the profitable ones which it uses to subsidise the former.

Also they might as well sell them, because in 40 years they will have to effectively rebuild them anyway, which is why Fraport is saving money here knowing this. Airports are REALLY expensive, especially since they are only going for the very vital tourist trap international airports.

Edit: The Athens airport alone cost 2.1bn Euro to construct in fact.

And you know what Fraport-Copelouzos is doing first after getting the deal? Investing quite a lot of money to improve the capacity and efficiency of the airports, something the state isn't capable of doing right now.

Also the Athens airport is one of the largest airport in Europe, while the 14 regional airports are way smaller. The largest one is the airport in Thessaloniki with two runways and <5mil passengers.

In fact the deal would help Greece to increase the income from tourism.

 

[Quixzlizx]

I mean, this is true in certain industries, yes. It's almost certainly *not* true in the case of airports, harbours, and the like; which are natural monopolies and very difficult to lose money on unless you are purposefully doing so. As an example of this in developed country, look at the catastrophic management of National Rail in the United Kingdom after privatization - it is now both less profitable and offers less customer value than it was under government management. This is particularly true in Greece and of airports at the moment given the argument you've provided (political expediency) is close to irrelevant in this specific case - given the current situation of the Greek economy, essentially nobody is voting with their key motivating issue being how airports are run, so there are no politically expedient moves to be made regarding airport management under the status quo anyway.

Graft, cronyism, and/or strong public-sector unions can certainly make issues of airport management politically expedient.

 

[Coriolanus]

Also the Athens airport is one of the largest airport in Europe, while the 14 regional airports are way smaller. The largest one is the airport in Thessaloniki with two runways and <5mil passengers.

In fact the deal would help Greece to increase the income from tourism.

Ironically, apparently that particular airport is experiencing quite the boom.

But really, if tourism is a concern, doubt that anything would promote it more than a devaluation of the currency.

There's...quite a lot of data in that wikipedia page. Hrm. Yeah, can't say that it'd be particularly smart to sell that thing now.

wut. 28% of flights to russia? bwhahaha my god

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Ironically, apparently that particular airport is experiencing quite the boom.

But really, if tourism is a concern, doubt that anything would promote it more than a devaluation of the currency.

Indeed. Ultimately, monetary union will not work without fiscal union, and the Eurozone is not moving towards fiscal union fast enough for the economies of the Eurozone periphery not to be damaged. At this point, if I were Greek, I'd be wanting out of the Eurozone.

 

[PdotMichael]

Ironically, apparently that particular airport is experiencing quite the boom.

And the Athens airport is a good example what a private owned company can do.

 

[Coriolanus]

And the Athens airport is a good example what a private owned company can do.

Explain.

 

[PdotMichael]

Explain.

The airport is operated by AIA a privately managed company and 45% of the airport are even owned by private shareholders (unlike what would happen with the Fraport deal where the state would still own 100% of all airports)

 

[Rafy]

But really, if tourism is a concern, doubt that anything would promote it more than a devaluation of the currency.

you are forgetting that it would also mean that prices of goods would be higher to make up for it and quality of service will dramatically decline.

Speaking with my family they told me there is already a huge decline in both quantity and quality of tourists and I have a feeling that defaulting ain't gonna make it better.

 

[Coriolanus]

The airport is operated by AIA a privately managed company and 45% of the airport are even owned by private shareholders (unlike what would happen with the Fraport deal where the state would still own 100% of all airports)

If the government owns 55% of the company, it is a public-private partnership, not a private company.

Guess who appoints the directors in that scenario.

you are forgetting that it would also mean that prices of goods would be higher to make up for it and quality of service will dramatically decline.

Speaking with my family they told me there is already a huge decline in both quantity and quality of tourists and I have a feeling that defaulting ain't gonna make it better.

So i am forgetting that what could happen has already happened?

 

[PdotMichael]

If the government owns 55% of the company, it is a public-private partnership, not a private company.

Guess who appoints the directors in that scenario.

You should read your link again and read something about the concept of PPP.

The airport operates as private company for the first 30 years.

 

[Rafy]

So i am forgetting that what could happen has already happened?

Well, if it already happened with a negative result towards tourism, why would be any different after a default ?

My point is, a default wouldn't make it any more attractive to visit as a tourist.

My dad who bought his product in Euros, will have to sell it at the same amount as before or he is losing money. The difference is that he'd have to convert the prices to Drachmas. So no drop in prices either. That same principle applies to every business that has stock they bought in Euros or imported. Not to mention having to account for exchange fees and even higher transaction fees with credit cards.

 

[Coriolanus]

You should read your link again and read something about the concept of PPP.

The airport operates as private company for the first 30 years.

PPP.

It's in the name.

But if you wanna pretend that a company where the government owns a majority stake is a Private Company, by all means, go right ahead.

 

[Ether_Snake]

Well, if it already happened with a negative result towards tourism, why would be any different after a default ?

My point is, a default wouldn't make it any more attractive to visit as a tourist.

My dad who bought his product in Euros, will have to sell it at the same amount as before or he is losing money. The difference is that he'd have to convert the prices to Drachmas. So no drop in prices either. That same principle applies to every business that has stock they bought in Euros or imported. Not to mention having to account for exchange fees and even higher transaction fees with credit cards.

The Drachma would not be worth the same as the Euro. You do know currencies fluctuate VS one another right?

 

[PdotMichael]

PPP.

It's in the name.

But if you wanna pretend that a company where the government owns a majority stake is a Private Company, by all means, go right ahead.

Claiming anything else would be plain wrong.

In 1995, the Government of the Hellenic Republic and the private consortium led by HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft entered the Airport Development Agreement (ADA) with the joint aim to develop the new international airport at Spata by means of a Public-Private Partnership (PPP). The ADA establishes a 30-year concession ratified by Greek Law granting the Airport Company the exclusive right to occupy and use the site for the purpose of the "design, financing, construction, completion, commissioning, maintenance, operation, management and development of the airport".

The concession period was initiated in 1996 upon the establishment of "Diethnis Aerolimenas Athinon A.E", a private legal entity formed under Greek company law as a societe anonyme that trades as "Athens International Airport S.A." (AIA) and "is managed and operated as a private sector company".

That is how PPP works - public and private companies invest in one project together and the private part either operates the project for the first years or they share the work, for example, the private part operates all business fields of a hospital except the pure medical services which are done by the public.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Being run by a private company and being privatized are not the same and you are moving the goalposts furiously.

 

[PdotMichael]

Being run by a private company and being privatized are not the same and you are moving the goalposts furiously.

Not all the time but talking about the Fraport deal it is.

The deal about the 14 airports was about to sell a concession agreement for 40 years to a private company. It was never about selling the airports to a foreign company.

 

[Reuenthal]

I don't really buy that devaluation of the currency will help Greece much due to huge increase of tourism. What matters is avoiding the very negative deflation problem that has been happening in Greece. Though I don't see high inflation being good for Greece either. Still maybe things could stabilize after some months, or not. Even most economists are unsure about this issue of how things will exactly happen. Anyway, a small inflation target is probably the best for the Greek economy since imports are pretty important for its economy as well. The problem and fear is that there will be high inflation after an exit and constant uncontrollable devaluatons. Maybe that would stop eventually and better policy would follow...

Either way, the situation with the very high austerity measures, deflation, constant negotiation,unbearable debt it is unsustainable and very bad certainly. But I see most scenarios discussed being between lose-lose alternatives, without seeing something and making me feel this ensures a positive future. Much uncertainty instead at best. Certainly for the next few years,I don't see a scenario that I can believe that in 2017 the livelihood of the Greek people would be better.

 

[Rafy]

The Drachma would not be worth the same as the Euro. You do know currencies fluctuate VS one another right?

Yes, I do. I am also aware that tourist shops will set prices accordingly and even though it might be wildly fluctuating at first, it will later stabilize as a currency. What I know is mostly with imported products, I remember my dad buying from markets with stronger currencies and later having to adjust the in drachmas according to foreign markets back in the day.

 

[Coriolanus]

I don't really buy that devaluation of the currency will help Greece much due to huge increase of tourism. What matters is avoiding the very negative deflation problem that has been happening in Greece. Though I don't see high inflation being good for Greece either. Still maybe things could stabilize after some months, or not. Even most economists are unsure about this issue of how things will exactly happen. Anyway, a small inflation target is probably the best for the Greek economy since imports are pretty important for its economy as well. The problem and fear is that there will be high inflation after an exit and constant uncontrollable devaluatons.

It's not just tourism. It's a whole host of issues, such as consequently making imports much more expensive and exports cheaper, forcing/facilitating a transition to a trade superavit. Add to that that, to someone that is loaded on debt, deflation is a bolt to the eye, and the inflation that would result from such a move isn't all that undesirable.

Yes, it will be hard, but this course is favoured by some on Gaf because, unlike the measures currently favoured by the EU, it isn't guaranteed to fail.

 

[Reuenthal]

It's not just tourism. It's a whole host of issues, such as consequently making imports much more expensive and exports cheaper, forcing/facilitating a transition to a trade superavit. Add to that that, to someone that is loaded on debt, deflation is a bolt to the eye, and the inflation that would result from such a move isn't all that undesirable.

Yes, it will be hard, but this course is favoured by some on Gaf because, unlike the measures currently favoured by the EU, it isn't guaranteed to fail.

Imports are pretty important to the running of the economy. It will also affect the costs of export producing business. But yeah some inflation is probably better than the current situation. It depends on the size of the inflation that will happen.

 

[Coriolanus]

Imports are pretty important to the running of the economy. It will also affect the costs of export producing business. But yeah some inflation is probably better than the current situation. It depends on the size of the inflation that will happen.

Short term? Most likely monstrous. It'll be brutal.

Everybody would be better off if the debt got pardoned, tbh.

 

[Reuenthal]

Short term? Most likely monstrous. It'll be brutal.

Everybody would be better off if the debt got pardoned, tbh.

Not sure about it having to be all of the debt, but a big haircut would greatly help. The problems caused by horrible pollicy, uncertainty, and constant negotiations is much bigger for everyone involved.

The problem is there are those who are much more motivated by punishing Greeks for perceived moral failings and offenses, and this of course perceived list of slights includes a lot of lying and bullshit or focus on pointless things over substance. In part because they are looking for a scapegoat and want to avoid responsibility for their own failings. And mostly because it makes it easier to push through policy that is a failure if you make people focus on hating this group or another. Finding the best possible pollicy or even a good one, isn't even a priority.

At the end of the day, the current system is an utter disaster causing recessions and failure of reaching its potential for all of eurozone. Neither a fiscal union, a political union, but worse than if each country followed its own road as well without having to follow the directions of the ECB and the other members of the troika. But too afraid of the consequences of breaking this system, or being the ones to do it. In part due to all of the lending that happened during this bad system.


The issue isn't Greece but the broken eurozone system and how to properly reform it so it isn't such abysmal failure.

 

[ElTorro]

The Greek parliament is currently voting on the referendum. Here is the live stream of the vote: https://parltv.live.grnet.gr/webtv/

 

[uuaschbaer]

The Greek parliament is currently voting on the referendum. Here is the live stream of the vote: https://parltv.live.grnet.gr/webtv/

I hear a lot of "ne", is that in favour of having a referendum?

 

[Coriolanus]

Nai is yes. They got it.

Yerp. Referendum will happen.

 

[Erebus]

I hear a lot of "ne", is that in favour of having a referendum?

Yep.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Hey guys, from a housekeeping POV whatever ends up happening next week, please make a new thread. Makes it easier for people who have a passing interest to know something big happened, allows new voices to join the thread, helps avoid confusion about the current state of affairs, etc.

 

[Coriolanus]

178 yes to 120 no.
Syriza and Anel have 161 members.

Pasok got fucked.

Also, from Guardian coverage:

MPs from the communist KKE party are voting against holding the referendum.

The KKE truly baffles me.

 

[ElTorro]

178 yes to 120 no.
Syriza and Anel have 161 members.

Pasok got fucked.

The Golden Dawn Nazis also voted in favor of the referendum.

 

[Souldestroyer Reborn]

Nai is yes. They got it.

Yerp. Referendum will happen.

Awesome.

Someone making the new thread?

 

[Coriolanus]

The Golden Dawn Nazis also voted in favor of the referendum.

And the communists voted against it.

#greece

Someone making the new thread?

Eh, ICKE's created almost all the latest greek threads. I'm sure he'll get around to it.

Also
#Greece [KappaResearch/@tovimagr poll]:
· 47.2% vote Yes (for agreement)
· 33% No
· 18.4% undecided
/via @AntennaNews /ht @ManosGiakoumis

Which, as others in the thread have pointed out, is particularly bizarre, since we don't quite know exactly what the Yes and the No vote means.

 

[Ether_Snake]

And the communists voted against it.

#greece


Eh, ICKE's created almost all the latest greek threads. I'm sure he'll get around to it.

Also
#Greece [KappaResearch/@tovimagr poll]:
· 47.2% vote Yes (for agreement)
· 33% No
· 18.4% undecided
/via @AntennaNews /ht @ManosGiakoumis

Which, as others in the thread have pointed out, is particularly bizarre, since we don't quite know exactly what the Yes and the No vote means.

We do know. Yes, they bring the proposal they were handed back on the table, signed. No, they don't agree to the terms found in it. It's as simple as that. Doesn't matter what the Troika considers valid or not, that is the outcome, they can react to the outcome of the referendum as they choose.

The only thing that would be really bizarre is if the Troika keeps hammering how the proposal isn't a real proposal after they actually made it, or put their fingers in their ears when the Greek government comes back with said proposal signed.

 

[Reuenthal]

And the communists voted against it.

#greece


Eh, ICKE's created almost all the latest greek threads. I'm sure he'll get around to it.

Also
#Greece [KappaResearch/@tovimagr poll]:
· 47.2% vote Yes (for agreement)
· 33% No
· 18.4% undecided
/via @AntennaNews /ht @ManosGiakoumis

Which, as others in the thread have pointed out, is particularly bizarre, since we don't quite know exactly what the Yes and the No vote means.

The yes is to the last proposal from the troika. The no is rejecting it. As for the implications, it depends on what each side does later.

 

[Coriolanus]

We do know. Yes, they bring the proposal they were handed back on the table, signed. No, they don't agree to the terms found in it. It's as simple as that. Doesn't matter what the Troika considers valid or not, that is the outcome, they can react to the outcome of the referendum as they choose.

What do you think will happen after wednesday? Legit asking.

The yes is to the referendum happening.

That opinion poll is for what would the greek vote in the referendum be.

 

[Reuenthal]

What do you think will happen after wednesday? Legit asking.


That opinion poll is for what would the greek vote in the referendum be.

You are right. I was too quick to answer.


Now, I could be wrong but If Greeks vote yes to the referendum which might or might not be the right thing to do, then the referendum idea was a stupid one. That is, Tsipras only should have done it, if he thought that no would be the result, and it would be the right thing to do.

But if it comes yes, then the EU side might come with a harsher program, either now, or in the future and what does Tsipras then do? The anti-goverment parties would claim that syriza doesn't have credibility from the voters to reject it. It weakens the power of the greek goverment to threat. On the other hand, it might had been necessary to pass the agreement from the parliament. Additionally giving voice to the people does matter.

 

[Ether_Snake]

What do you think will happen after wednesday? Legit asking.

Ask Merkel and Co.? It's in their hands. Greece meanwhile has a referendum planned for July 5th.

You are right. I was too quick to answer.


Now, I could be wrong but If Greeks vote yes to the referendum which might or might not be the right thing to do, then the referendum idea was a stupid one. That is, Tsipras only should have done it, if he thought that no would be the result, and it would be the right thing to do.

But if it comes yes, then the EU side might come with a harsher program, either now, or in the future and what does Tsipras then do? The anti-goverment parties would claim that syriza doesn't have credibility from the voters to reject it. It weakens the power of the greek goverment to threat. On the other hand, it might had been necessary to pass the agreement from the parliament.

Wrong. Tsipras knows people will vote yes. That's the whole point. You will see the Troika distance themselves more than ever the closer they are to a deal, which is why he is going with the referendum. Otherwise what would be the point? You'd get a know and then back to the table? He knows he'll get a yes, but what he also knows is that when finally Greece accepts this proposal, the Troika will be more obtuse than ever, which they were always going to be unless Greece outright capitulated to the most ridiculous of demands.

Again I repeat, the Troika's goal has only been to undermine Syriza and any other party like theirs in the rest of Europe. They want people to consider anti-austerity parties a non-viable choice. They want anti-austerity sentiment to become hopeless, where any party that is against austerity becomes synonymous with economic catastrophe, or where such parties in the end will always end up turning back on their promise, making their electorate give up on voting for them to begin with. It will blow up in their faces, it will just embolden those parties and anti-austerity sentiment.

 

[Negotiator]

The KKE truly baffles me.

KKE is notorious for saying "NO!" to everything.

 

[Yamauchi]

Impressive parliamentary vote, especially in light of Dijsselbloem's attempt to usurp upon Greece's political process by recommending that Greeks 'come up with a different political situation.'

 

[Reuenthal]

Ask Merkel and Co.? It's in their hands. Greece meanwhile has a referendum planned for July 5th.



Wrong. Tsipras knows people will vote yes. That's the whole point. You will see the Troika distance themselves more than ever the closer they are to a deal, which is why he is going with the referendum. Otherwise what would be the point? You'd get a know and then back to the table? He knows he'll get a yes, but what he also knows is that when finally Greece accepts this proposal, the Troika will be more obtuse than ever, which they were always going to be unless Greece outright capitulated to the most ridiculous of demands.

Again I repeat, the Troika's goal has only been to undermine Syriza and any other party like theirs in the rest of Europe. They want people to consider anti-austerity parties a non-viable choice. They want anti-austerity sentiment to become hopeless, where any party that is against austerity becomes synonymous with economic catastrophe, or where such parties in the end will always end up turning back on their promise, making their electorate give up on voting for them to begin with. It will blow up in their faces, it will just embolden those parties and anti-austerity sentiment.

The rejected troika proposal wasn't light at all, and pretty much moved over several of syriza's red lines. I don't really see that the Troika would have rejected their own deal if Greece said yes then because it was offered as last offer, and time run out and it was harsh. If Tsipras plan was for a yes in the referendum, then that actually helps the troika's goal even if they bring back the same deal that the greek goverment rejected. It shows that fighting for anti austerity isn't successful. Now, if they bring up harsher deal, then who knows what happens.

What Tsipras wants is a debt cut and one program instead of an extension of the next program for some months and after that negotiation for a new program and even more increase in austerity. That, and to limit austerity somewhat and also focus more on certain areas over others the lenders support.

Where the referendum can be helpful is in legitimizing what the Greek goverment will do next. However I am afraid of a yes result weakening Greece bargaining position. Not only now, but in the future. That and there is the issue that the austerity program isn't working.

 

[Durante]

But if it comes yes, then the EU side might come with a harsher program

What could possibly be the justification for that? If they thought their program worked a week ago it will still work a week later.

The only thing it would prove is that the goal isn't, and has never been, improving the Greek situation, but rather political maneuvering against an undesirable election result. I think too many people would realize this at that point.

Again I repeat, the Troika's goal has only been to undermine Syriza and any other party like theirs in the rest of Europe. They want people to consider anti-austerity parties a non-viable choice. They want anti-austerity sentiment to become hopeless, where any party that is against austerity becomes synonymous with economic catastrophe, or where such parties in the end will always end up turning back on their promise, making their electorate give up on voting for them to begin with. It will blow up in their faces, it will just embolden those parties and anti-austerity sentiment.

Exactly.

 

[Reuenthal]

What could possibly be the justification for that? If they thought their program worked a week ago it will still work a week later.

The only thing it would prove is that the goal isn't, and has never been, improving the Greek situation, but rather political maneuvering against an undesirable election result.

Exactly.

Their goal isn't improving the Greek situation, but rather political maneuvering against an undesirable election result. They already proved that. However they might provide the program of a week ago and not a harsher one, if they are afraid of a no deal since the last offer does nothing to actually really help Greece solve its problems. Of importance is what happens when the current program finishes or is about to finish and there is new negotiation.

 

[Durante]

Their goal isn't improving the Greek situation, but rather political maneuvering against an undesirable election result. They already proved that.

I agree. But I don't think they want to make it this obvious (see my edit).