Frankfurter
Member
How do you think this is gonna work in a capitalist economy? There is no such thing as an overlord saying "Factory A needs to move to location X".
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Greece votes OXI/No on more Austerity measures
- Thread starter Coriolanus
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How do you think this is gonna work in a capitalist economy? There is no such thing as an overlord saying "Factory A needs to move to location X".
China won't get too involved, they are at a really good place with the European Union and the European Union wants to strengthen that bond.
In hindsight, they should have first strengthened the EU around the six core countries and tried to get Scandinavia/Austria/Switzerland on board after that point
undu
Member
Yeah, all those people that don't work nor get any subsidies, they don't get a job because they're lazy fucks, they can't bring themselves to solve their poverty, can you imagine that?
/sarcasm
Poe's law is hitting me hard right now.
Some French fool interviewed in the streets today was saying we shouldn't pay any more for the Greeks because they couldn't even make some savings.
Man, people can be so stupid sometimes...
nature boy
Member
A farce referendum? Never!
Not saying that. But its time to roll up the sleeves and change the mindset. Thats the big difference between the south and north. Because the countries in the south ar in the most problems I have to work until i am 67 where in Greece more then 60% of the people retire before 61. And so are many things.
Maybe i shouldnt have said lazy. But that southern EU part is way more laid back and still alot of corruption.
I don't remember saying they do? Again you don't seem to grasp what I was trying to say:
China and Russia do have interest in this, but I don't see them acting on it. This discussion developed out of a hypothetical situation. You said China and Russland have no reason to be interested in Greece. I provided (some) evidence, in the form of an article, they actually do have geopolitical interest in greece.
We are talking geopolitics and long term strategies. You'd be naive to think some port and a pipeline is all world players like China and Russland are interested in.
Wiktor
Member
Well..for one thing, german workers are likely superior to greek ones. Second..good luck selling the idea to german unions. Third..most factories in germany are private. And even those that are owned by goverment, why would any sane goverment take work away from it's citizens to help some other country?
Greece has a huge problem with how their whole economy is structured. It's based around consuming goods and tourism. They produce little, they barely have any industry either. Good luck turning this around.
shinra-bansho
Member
I imagine that whatever proposal, while based on the last Juncker draft, will now include conditions of debt relief, as well as changes to how revenue is raised in terms of VAT and corporate tax rates.
I doubt the former will gain approval from the Bundestag or other European parliaments. But I guess we'll see.
In relation to this, the WSJ reports that Christian Noyer (ECB governing council/Bank of France) made comment today that debt to the ECB cannot be restructured, as he believes this would contravene the Eurozone's founding treaties.
So I can see why Grexit has become either much more likely, or the base case scenario now for analysts and ratings agencies.
I doubt the former will gain approval from the Bundestag or other European parliaments. But I guess we'll see.
In relation to this, the WSJ reports that Christian Noyer (ECB governing council/Bank of France) made comment today that debt to the ECB cannot be restructured, as he believes this would contravene the Eurozone's founding treaties.
So I can see why Grexit has become either much more likely, or the base case scenario now for analysts and ratings agencies.
Theonik
Member
Now let's see if debt relief is on the menu or it will be another stupid extension of the crisis for the European leaders to twiddle their thumbs on and then start talking about how the Greeks are lazy and need reforms.
That's where you're not understanding the situation: Varoufakis' (And Tsipras') job wasn't to negotiate a deal.
It was to get the best possible result for Greece - and if the EU keeps making absurd proposals, the best possible result is the default.
JoeyJungle
Banned
Damn it, I'm upset that Varoufakis resigned. He was really entertaining.
Theonik
Member
It just makes me think of this
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/pompous-arse-taking-tough-stance-on-greece-2015070299796
A sensible deal is worth the sacrifice of Varoufakis stepping down since it would be the best result. Grexit is the alternative. Let's see if Tsipras has the balls.
And I would argue that is an enormous miscalculation.
PdotMichael
Banned
You are repeating geopolitics and geopolitical interests like that are your buzzwords of the day. No, Greece doesn't provide anything that would have change anything in a geopolitical scale.
I provided links and something you could look up yourself. You provided nothing. I guess there is nothing more to discuss here?
PdotMichael
Banned
A default could he have months ago without all the theater and drama in the last week. But for all kinds of reason it was never an option.
Good Job Bob
Member
Paul Mason claims that Varoufakis resigned because he doesn't want his name attached to the inevitable austerity measures Syriza will agree to: https://youtu.be/IaHNy51MEoM
PdotMichael
Banned
I provided a link that neither Russia nor China did anything significantly in that direction and there is nothing to gain for them.
Osiris
I permanently banned my 6 year old daughter from using the PS4 for mistakenly sending grief reports as it's too hard to watch or talk to her
WSJ is reporting that Tsipras's last straw with Varoufakis was the comment he made suggesting that Greece would start to issue IOU's.
That is disgusting, hardline racism. Does the fault lie in the genes as well?
And that's because everything was destroyed in the past 6 years in the name of austerity, and the so called reforms Juncker and EU proposals are a scam to destroy and take over anything that's left.
Theonik
Member
He did say that he'd rather cut his arm off than to sign a deal with no debt restructuring. The creditors aren't willing to talk about the debt at the moment, and Tsipras doesn't seem to give a fuck either way so we might end up with dumb shit again.
1.21Gigawatts
Banned
To me the situation seems pretty simple.
Nobody wants the Grexit, because we can't quite know what the consequences would be.
But the EU also doesn't want to just pour money into Greece without them having reforms in place to bring them back on track, so EU proposed some reforms and now EU and Greece are fighting over them, because Greece thinks they are to harsh and won't help but the EU thinks they will help.
My position is clear up until when it comes to the reforms.
Of course Grexit would be bad, could have a domino effect, nobody can know how much that'll cost the EU and it could be devastating for Greece.
On the other hand Greece lived beyond its means for quite some time and they now have to lower their standards quite a bit.
It also obvious that the EU isn't willing to just pour money into Greece and let them continue.
I'm unsure about the austerity measures. Germany is actually a pretty good example for these things not working. After WW1 germany suffered extreme austerity and the population went straight to the political extreme and Hitler was the result.
On the other hand Greece obviously has to cut back on some things, they just have to be careful about what they cut. Its crucial not to hurt companies for example. They have to somehow build a robust economy and I'm pretty sure some agriculture and tourism won't be enough.
From what I've gathered it looks like Tsipras is very much about leaving the people with more money to consume and kickstart the economy that way, while the EU is more about supply side economics.
I'm not sure who is right, but I'm leaning more towards the EU.
Nobody wants the Grexit, because we can't quite know what the consequences would be.
But the EU also doesn't want to just pour money into Greece without them having reforms in place to bring them back on track, so EU proposed some reforms and now EU and Greece are fighting over them, because Greece thinks they are to harsh and won't help but the EU thinks they will help.
My position is clear up until when it comes to the reforms.
Of course Grexit would be bad, could have a domino effect, nobody can know how much that'll cost the EU and it could be devastating for Greece.
On the other hand Greece lived beyond its means for quite some time and they now have to lower their standards quite a bit.
It also obvious that the EU isn't willing to just pour money into Greece and let them continue.
I'm unsure about the austerity measures. Germany is actually a pretty good example for these things not working. After WW1 germany suffered extreme austerity and the population went straight to the political extreme and Hitler was the result.
On the other hand Greece obviously has to cut back on some things, they just have to be careful about what they cut. Its crucial not to hurt companies for example. They have to somehow build a robust economy and I'm pretty sure some agriculture and tourism won't be enough.
From what I've gathered it looks like Tsipras is very much about leaving the people with more money to consume and kickstart the economy that way, while the EU is more about supply side economics.
I'm not sure who is right, but I'm leaning more towards the EU.
Wiktor
Member
Except that it was the same before the crisis. Also very little export and barely any industry. Not to mention farming aimed more at getting the payout from EU than on actually producing food people would want to buy.
The reforms forced by troika went too far and damaged their economy, but that economy has been a house of cards for a lot longer.
Now, now, slow my friend. Let's not start comparing the eurozones austerity policies to the Treaty of Versailles.
Coriolanus
Banned
Fwiw, Mason is somewhat close to Yannis. Either way, seems to be one of those things where we'll find the truth tomorrow, if at all.
Greece already has lowered their standards quite a bit. Most of the money the EU sends to Greece does not actually go to greece, breakdown is in the OP.
EU also has the FMI study showing that their plan would still have Greece under massive debt up to 2030 and beyond.
Theonik
Member
Even the EU doesn't think they will help anymore and there are tons of reports from outside analysts including the IMF that say so. The EU however doesn't want to lose face and will never publicly admit to this. This is a European problem and they'd be damned before they let the outside world consider them as clowns. They'd sooner poor infinite wells of money into Greece with some slap austerity than to make any meaningful move to resolving the Greek crisis. Merkel probably deeply regrets not listening to the ECB director in 2010 and deciding to insist in brining the IMF against their will into the Greek bailout as an attempt to make it harder for Greece to restructure their debt and to force reforms. Now they need to make adjustments but can't.
This is how we reached this current impasse.
HarryHengst
Member
The Golden Dawn is a party that exists and has seats in Greece. They are literal nazi's. Its really not a stretch that driving Greece further unto the path of austerity will result in more support of them.
Apart from needed cuts for balancing finances, Greece has always needed deep reforms, TRUE reforms to its tax collection and pension systems. Any deal that does not include modernisation of these two will ultimately fail. And by modernisation, I don't mean just increasing taxes and cutting costs, as the creditors suggest. Greece needs modern, fully electronic systems that governments in the previous 40 years have refused to develop. This will be the only win condition of the current government imo. I will not consider avoiding pension cuts or tax hikes a win. They have to change the rotten establishment and clean up.
nature boy
Member
Old habits die hard:
The Treaty of Versailles was much, much more than just reparations though. It included territorial loss of 25,000 square miles and about 7 million people.
So what about the debt? They do know someone still has to pay right? Why are some Greeks behaving like they still live in their parents homes and do not have to pay for rent?
Coriolanus
Banned
For the love of fuck do not use household parallels in macroeconomic scenarios.
Theonik
Member
Because they do. By every meaning of the word still own their house. Unless you would like to allude that Greece is not a sovereign state.
Earthstrike
Member
Greeks live in their own homes. They own their own homes. And if you loan money to someone expecting more money in return, you are taking a risk. Defaulting is an option anyone with any level of debt has when they cannot pay loans back.
CyclopsRock
Member
Using household comparisons is far more appropriate in countries without control of a central bank, though, compared to countries like the US, UK or Norway that actually control their currency. As long as they can't print more money, are at the behest of the ECB to liquidate their banks and have enormous debts to foreign creditors, then their dependence on third parties exists.
They're bound to have mortgages on those houses though
I understand taking a risk part, but when you loan the money, you went in an agreement with what was written in the contract. Whether you default or not, you still need to pay what was agreed on the contract no?
It's the last possible option if a deal better than a default can't be had.
And if the train keeps on chugging like the last five years, that's the case.
Theonik
Member
That's a different story. Personal debt, corporate debt, and national debt are pretty much separate in how they work, mostly because of practical reasons and depending on who is loaning money to whom. Not that either of the three isn't supposed to be paid back, but the power dynamics are completely different. A state defaulting on debt to a private bank is a NIGHTMARE scenario for the bank. State debt can be huge investments and the bank has no way to collect against a state. They are banking on the fact that states very seldom default but in the case of the Eurozone that has proven to not actually be the case and it is significantly more likely to happen.
The point of defaulting is that you don't. Now, there are legal ways to shed debt. if a state straight out did that, no-one would lend them money again.
This is what was voted down, by the way.
Document, official. Pure theft.
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-15-5270_en.htm
Document, official. Pure theft.
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-15-5270_en.htm
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
Tsipras just formed a national unity government now, except GD and KKE. The referendum really helped his position so at least the Troika can put aside their attempts to make the government fall.
hydrophilic attack
Member
He helped get the European anti-austerity movement going
His leadership led to the Greeks taking their destiny in their own hands
He got debt reduction for Greece back on the table
He brought refreshing real talk to Europe
He brought much-needed hope to cowed socialists across Europe
Yanis did a damn fine job.
He will be missed.
His leadership led to the Greeks taking their destiny in their own hands
He got debt reduction for Greece back on the table
He brought refreshing real talk to Europe
He brought much-needed hope to cowed socialists across Europe
Yanis did a damn fine job.
He will be missed.
What is theft about it? Honest question.
I skimmed through it and what I could read didn't sound that bad? But I am most likley missing something.
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