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Greece votes OXI/No on more Austerity measures

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No we do not know that yet. Furthermore those countries are in ruins economically. People in Spain are suffering.

Data shows clear upwards trends, even though I get that people might not neccessarily notice that yet.
The question is, were would they be without the help?
 

Rektash

Member
I think my conjecture is far more reasonable than the alternative. He had no reason to go in there to piss people off. I also think it's a generally misguided notion and uninteresting to think that this is all the result of peoples' personal temperaments. What probably happened is Greece went in there as nice as possible to try to get a good deal, they got hard NOs over and over because, well, why SHOULD Germany pay the bills exactly? And the two sides got progressively frustrated and broke talks.

If European creditors wanted to allow for movement they would have given some sign, but repeatedly saying hard NOs and putting out what is essentially a MORAL argument against Greece, and then trying to interfere in Greece's referendum, indicates that my conjecture is probably correct.

I don't think we will get anywhere with this discussion sadly. You argue that your assumption is likely to be true and I think that is a perfectly reasonable thing to belive in. However my argument is, that Varoufakis shouldn't have based his strategy on assumptions but rather try to deal with the reality he was put in. It comes down to how we personally belive in how he should have handled this. Furthermore I don't think Varoufakis temperament played a big role in this at all. If anything, I think he wasn't experienced enough to play his part in this. He is an academic. Dancing on the stage of international politics is something people have to learn first.

Malicious gossip has it that he can be happy how things turned out for him. He can now go tour international universities earning 5 digits for every lecture he gives.

I don't consider it playing. I consider it fighting for its future, and often times you have to risk to secure a better future. I'm not sure what you think will happen to Greece, but the answer is basically, nothing in the long-term. Short term both choices were bad, except one choice was bad only for Greece. Greece opted to take the choice that was bad for both them AND Europe in hopes that Europe would offer them a better one.

Again I think this is perfectly reasonable thing to belive in, but I can't sign to these type of games. There are too many variables, too many unknowns that factor into the outcome - to the point where I think calling it a big gamble is a fair a assessment. I think the greek population deserves something better than this high stake gamble and I belive the right way to deal with this would have been for Varoufakis doing everything in his might to keep the negotiations alive at a healthy non polemic level. I don't think his way of handling things achieved anything of value, it did the opposite as far as I am concerend.

It is absolutely imperative that Greece stays stable and Western powers will make sure of that, to the chagrin of their taxpayers, whether Greece stays with the Euro or not.

While I hope you are right on this, at this point I wouldn't be too sure that Greeces stability is that imperative to the eurozone. It was in 2010 but things have changed since then.

Btw. just so people don't get confused: I am mostly in favor of a debt cut and a better offer from greeces creditors. I do however think that greeces current goverment did an absolutly terrible job at handling the current crisis and did everything to make the situation worse.
 
But isn't it the most popular newspaper in Germany with the most sales?

Yes but just like The Sun is in the UK. They share many similarities both in material and readers. Bild is big though, not just in Germany, it's one of the most circulated papers in the world.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Yes but just like The Sun is in the UK. They share many similarities both in material and readers. Bild is big though, not just in Germany, it's one of the most circulated papers in the world.

Until the Sun on Sunday replaced News of the World under the Sun umbrella, Bild was the highest circulation tabloid in the world.
 
So, it seems Yanis Varoufakis resigned.

The hat plan failed!

But yeah, I think it's a damn good idea he got the hell out of there. I just hope thing aren't too tumultous in the weeks ahead.
 

burnjanso

Member
So Greece has voted no. How acceptable of a deal does Greece have to receive now for them to sign? Will Greece hold another referendum after they work out new terms?

Also, I can understand Eurozone nations taking a haircut on their debt, but I fail to see why IMF has to take a haircut or restructure their bailout. Even before IMF gave the bailout to Greece, emerging markets were vocal about lending to a richer European country. Also, considering that experts say that the IMF terms were favorable compared to the terms Asian countries received during the financial crisis in 1997 I don't really see why 188 nations should reconsider their loan to Greece.
 

Rektash

Member
So, it seems Yanis Varoufakis resigned.

The hat plan failed!

But yeah, I think it's a damn good idea he got the hell out of there.
I just hope thing aren't too tumultous in the weeks ahead.

It is very doubtful this was a decision made solely by Varoufakis. Tsipras probably asked him to step down and he said yes. Tsipras needs a basis on which to restart negotiations and I am pretty sure greeces creditors would just laugh in their face if they sent Varoufakis at this point.
 

oti

Banned
BREAKING: Austrian FinMin Schelling says he thinks there's not much room for movement on Greece at Eurogroup meeting on Tuesday.
 

Joni

Member
So Greece has voted no. How acceptable of a deal does Greece have to receive now for them to sign? Will Greece hold another referendum after they work out new terms?
Probably not. If Tsipiras gets a deal he can sell, he won't be crazy enough to do it again. Time is still of essence, the banks won't have any money left by the end of the week.

Also, I can understand Eurozone nations taking a haircut on their debt, but I fail to see why IMF has to take a haircut or restructure their bailout. Even before IMF gave the bailout to Greece, emerging markets were vocal about lending to a richer European country. Also, considering that experts say that the IMF terms were favorable compared to the terms Asian countries received during the financial crisis in 1997 I don't really see why 188 nations should reconsider their loan to Greece.
Well, because the IMF is the one that released a report suggesting it. If the IMF doesn't do it, the EU shouldn't do it either.
 

ICKE

Banned
John Quiggin and his analysis (game theory related) :

Even if least-bad case is regarded as slightly better than a backdown, any reasonable calculation of expected payoffs for the institutions concerned would indicate that backing down is the rational choice. That doesn’t mean that such a choice will be made. People aren’t generally rational after all. Moreover, individual rationality may not be the same as institutional rationality. Quite possibly, failure will be seen as career-ending for key individuals, notably Lagarde, Merkel and perhaps Juncker. So, they may prefer institutional disaster to personal failure.

The thing is that I would share his sentiments, should one replace Greece with any other Member State.

Most people around Europe understand the situation. We all know that A) Greece is not able to pay back its debts, B) our politicians made false promises during the bank capitalization and C) the best solution would be a haircut with an ironclad agreement related to administrative reforms.

That being said, other partners do not have any reason to trust that Syriza will be able to implement substantive reforms. This crisis reflects the rampant nepotism in that country and who's to say that we won't be having this same discussion after next election again?
 

Theonik

Member
There's resigning and be told to resign. Guess which one it would've fallen under.
Soon after the announcement of the referendum results, I was made aware of a certain preference by some Eurogroup participants, and assorted ‘partners’, for my… ‘absence’ from its meetings; an idea that the Prime Minister judged to be potentially helpful to him in reaching an agreement. For this reason I am leaving the Ministry of Finance today.
Not much room for guessing.
http://yanisvaroufakis.eu/2015/07/06/minister-no-more/
 
All Varoufakis did was burn bridges. It is completly beyond me how you guys can call this guy a hero. His job was to negotiate a deal with Greeces creditors. He failed that. Greece is closer to a default than ever.

Funnily enough here in the Netherlands the first calls for Dijselbloem, the head of the Eurogroup, to resign due to his failure to reach an agreement with Greece have started.
 

Hrothgar

Member
So Greece has voted no. How acceptable of a deal does Greece have to receive now for them to sign? Will Greece hold another referendum after they work out new terms?

Also, I can understand Eurozone nations taking a haircut on their debt, but I fail to see why IMF has to take a haircut or restructure their bailout. Even before IMF gave the bailout to Greece, emerging markets were vocal about lending to a richer European country. Also, considering that experts say that the IMF terms were favorable compared to the terms Asian countries received during the financial crisis in 1997 I don't really see why 188 nations should reconsider their loan to Greece.

A haircut on the IMF (and ECB) bailout is actually far more pressing than a debt reduction from the EFSF and Eurozone governments. They only have to start paying back the latter in 2020 stretched out over 35 years.
 
So Greece has voted no. How acceptable of a deal does Greece have to receive now for them to sign? Will Greece hold another referendum after they work out new terms?

Why do we consider this to be an obligation of Eurozone to make any new proposal to Greece which Greece might graciously accept if it meets their expectations ?

Greece said no so they have to make a new proposition that will be acceptable to other eurozone members.

It's not Eurozone who will run out of money next week in ATMs.
 
Wait. Varoufakis stepped down?

Not surprising at all, lol. Everyone trying to leave the ship before real shit starts to happen. Tsipras is next.
 

Theonik

Member
There is actually still a lot of room for guessing, mainly about the timing and the reason why Tsipiras has pressured him. Europe had no problem that Varoufakis was replaced by Tsakalotos and others during the last couple of months. Just keeping Varoufakis out of the meetings was enough. Unless he was also running out of credit in his own party.
I meant room for guessing that he was pushed. I suppose there is a debate on whether Varoufakis was offended by the notion of again being pulled from the negotiations but that hasn't been a problem before.

Troika was probably hoping to drive both him and Tsipras out, but realised they had failed to do so, and offered this as a token of goodwill. Varoufakis's aloof handling of diplomatic matters probably put him on edge with his party as well.
 

ICKE

Banned
There is actually still a lot of room for guessing, mainly about the timing and the reason why Tsipiras has pressured him. Europe had no problem that Varoufakis was replaced by Tsakalotos and others during the last couple of months. Just keeping Varoufakis out of the meetings was enough. Unless he was also running out of credit in his own party.

Varoufakis was too divisive. He would give positive statements to various web publications and then completely backtrack on RT or some such.

It just felt like he was playing a game instead of trying to find serious solutions to the situation.
 

Rafy

Member
Troika was probably hoping to drive both him and Tsipras out, but realised they had failed to do so, and offered this as a token of goodwill. Varoufakis's aloof handling of diplomatic matters probably put him on edge with his party as well.

Yep, I believe so too. Especially in the past few weeks. I like the man but as he said himself, he is not a politician, which could have been a refreshing change had his latest comments towards creditors not been so aggressive, for lack of a better word. Not a very good public speaker IMO, unless he had a speech prepared or rehearsed in advance.
 

petran79

Banned
German EP president Martin Schulz said on German TV ARD the EU may have to look into preparing humanitarian aid to Greece in the next few days. Grim.

He and Draghi should know that they preside over independent authorities, not to be influenced by political decisions. They have to abstain from such ridiculous comments and focus in applying the rules they were chosen to follow. Martin Schulz is another example of how degenerated Social Democracy has become.

One former president of a Greek bank stated that the trustworthiness of the Euro is on the line. If Eurozone cant solve a problem related to their 2 %, what will happen in an even bigger crisis? ECB has to pour money to stabilize the currency, that is what the rules dictate and what M. Draghi has to follow, as a president of an independent authority.

But this is what happens when politics try to influence independent authorities.
 

le-seb

Member
There is actually still a lot of room for guessing, mainly about the timing and the reason why Tsipiras has pressured him. Europe had no problem that Varoufakis was replaced by Tsakalotos and others during the last couple of months. Just keeping Varoufakis out of the meetings was enough. Unless he was also running out of credit in his own party.
Not sure if related, but I've read that Tsípras called Hollande yesterday not long after the poll results, and the French president would have asked him to bring France the hand required to help Greece.

Why do we consider this to be an obligation of Eurozone to make any new proposal to Greece which Greece might graciously accept if it meets their expectations ?

Greece said no so they have to make a new proposition that will be acceptable to other eurozone members.

It's not Eurozone who will run out of money next week in ATMs.
Yep. French FiMi said this morning that the Greeks have to bring a new proposition that will be discussed by the EU members, and not the other way around.
 

Theonik

Member
Yep, I believe so too. Especially in the past few weeks. I like the man but as he said himself, he is not a politician, which could have been a refreshing change had his latest comments towards creditors not been so aggressive, for lack of a better word.
He was certainly... Refreshing. But alas that shit just doesn't fly where he stands.
A senior advisory position would have suited him more I think but certainly agitating the hive is going to give some result either way.
 

Rafy

Member
He was certainly... Refreshing. But alas that shit just doesn't fly where he stands.
A senior advisory position would have suited him more I think but certainly agitating the hive is going to give some result either way.

Agreed on the senior advisor position but I have a feeling they (Syriza) are probably not going to allow him to speak publicly again (which could be a good thing). When it comes to agitating the hive, if you mean his "terrorists" and other extremely negative comments, I can't help but wonder if Greece could have gotten a better deal (if it gets one at all), had he not said those things.
 
Greece just shot themselves in the foot.

I don't know how much the rest of you know about German culture (I'm an expert), but work ethics and punctuality are huge parts of it. It's not like it is in Southern Europe where you can get by while being a lazy bum. If you screw Germany over, you bring German rage onto yourself, and the only way to get rid of that rage is servitude.

What this means is the German public, after hearing about this, is not going to want to bail out Greece again, nor will they allow them to default on their debt. This is HUGE. You can laugh all you want, but Greece has brought the entire German military on themselves with this move.

Greece, publicly apologize and ignore the referendum results or you can kiss your Mediterranean islands goodbye.

God damn it I love this meme
 

MrFatCat

Banned
First please excuse me for being ignorant. I'm not a very academic person, nor live in EU but even i know that when you owe a debt to someone, you have an obligation to repay that debt right? That's just common sense right? Especially when the debt is due to your mismanaging with the money that you borrowed? I would like an explanation please.

I just want to understand, not starting an fight, so don't throw brick guys.
 
First please excuse me for being ignorant. I'm not a very academic person, nor live in EU but even i know that when you owe a debt to someone, you have an obligation to repay that debt right? That's just common sense right? Especially when the debt is due to your mismanaging with the money that you borrowed? I would like an explanation please.

I just want to understand, not starting an fight, so don't throw brick guys.

Read the op. There's a primer linked there.
 

Chariot

Member
First please excuse me for being ignorant. I'm not a very academic person, nor live in EU but even i know that when you owe a debt to someone, you have an obligation to repay that debt right? That's just common sense right? Especially when the debt is due to your mismanaging with the money that you borrowed? I would like an explanation please.

I just want to understand, not starting an fight, so don't throw brick guys.
In theory yes. In reality we are currently poking a starving old man in the ribs with a stick and ask him to sell his left arm, because he owes us and he already sold his food to repay his first debts.
 

oti

Banned
In theory yes. In reality we are currently poking a starving old man in the ribs with a stick and ask him to sell his left arm, because he owes us and he already sold his food to repay his first debts.

And because he's already lost his foot he can't partake in the dancing competition to make money with his Sirtaki skills and repay at least some of his debt.
 

MrFatCat

Banned
In theory yes. In reality we are currently poking a starving old man in the ribs with a stick and ask him to sell his left arm, because he owes us and he already sold his food to repay his first debts.

When you put it that way, i can see the problems now. A good strategy to appropriately repay the loan is needed to keep enough minimum living expense for the people.
 

oti

Banned
"Das Bundesfinanzministerium lehnt einen Schuldenschnitt für Griechenland ab. Dies sei kein Thema, erklärt ein Sprecher."

Debtcut? Germany's like nu-uh.
 
Welp. We just got paid one month in advance. Guess they are expecting a haircut anytime soon.

Now to decide what to do with some of the extra money so I can offload some money from my account (I'm buying a Vita - but it's a symbolic move :p)
 

oti

Banned
Welp. We just got paid one month in advance. Guess they are expecting a haircut anytime soon.

Now to decide what to do with some of the extra money so I can offload some money from my account (I'm buying a Vita - but it's a symbolic move :p)

Send it to Germany, send it to me. I want an Xbox One.
 
Would China step in and help Greece back on their feet if indeed Greece is kicked out?
Are there any pros for China to do so?
 
In theory yes. In reality we are currently poking a starving old man in the ribs with a stick and ask him to sell his left arm, because he owes us and he already sold his food to repay his first debts.
Maybe the poor man should think about selling his 112 tons of gold reserves before giving up any body parts.
 

Rektash

Member
Would China step in and help Greece back on their feet if indeed Greece is kicked out?
Are there any pros for China to do so?

I don't know how realistic that is but it certainly would rustle the Eurozones/EUs jimmies quite a bit. This conflict is seen as an internal conflict and inviting geopolitical players into this is more than just frowned upon.
The only way this could play out like this in a default situation where Greece decides to say "Nope, we are done with the Eurozone". Current polls indicate Greece doesn't want to abandon the Eurozone though.
 
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