Relaxed Muscle
Member
No? People was asking for a debt relief and a stop to austerity as a real solution.
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Greece votes OXI/No on more Austerity measures
- Thread starter Coriolanus
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No? People was asking for a debt relief and a stop to austerity as a real solution.
Coriolanus
Banned
No, it was the second best, the best being debt forgiveness + all the other keynesian stuff, which most posters considered would be politically impossible.
Could you elaborate?
Melon Husk
Member
It's an interesting thought experiment to think how one would unite the states of Hawaii, California and Texas were they independent countries with clear cultural differences to boot. Say folks spoke Japanese in Hawaii and Spanish in California.
Flying Toaster
Member
I was not suggesting in the slightest that European countries should give up their independence. I was trying to say and forgive me for not being clearer that perhaps if the EU shares one currency than there has to be a more unified way to handle situations such as Greece instead of the governments of the lending banks only dictating what the debtors should and should not do.
I won't even suggest I remotely understand the nuances of this situation because I would be arrogant and stupid to say otherwise.
Unless Russia moves in with tanks, the US isnt going to do anything. It can only increase tensions if the US tries to undermine some sort of Greece Russian agreement. And if there is one, which is unlikely, that agreement really doesnt matter to the US at all.
But in absence of Narnia, I think Grexit is the least on fire option.
Flying Toaster
Member
I do not see the US getting involved even if Russia moved in with tanks. Look at how supportive my government was when the Ukraine situation escalated.
Something a lot of Americans are embarrassed about here at home.
-Looking at the long game econmicly a Grexit is toxic but ultimately good for Greece if they can weather the storm. I don't even believe Greece should join the EU again if they come out of this with a fighting chance as who is to say the same situation would not happen (Yes I know variables are in play such as a corrupt government)
Just self-referencing a number of conversations that I have had on GAF about Russia, Crimea and Ukraine. The people I am arguing with said it increased Russian power because of such and such reason. I said it weakened it because it fucked up their economy even more, left them with a dependent state, and hurt their international relations. I think you need to have economic power to have political power and Russia weakened their political power by weakening their economic power by invading Ukraine.
PdotMichael
Banned
Sure, how the time changed.
Suddenly the proposal based on the lastest Eurogroup proposal is worth fighting for.
Greece is a member of NATO. We will attack Russia if Russia attacks Greece
Alabamaman
Banned
That's what the ESM is for. It worked in the other countries but Greece has shown it doesn't take creditors demands seriously.
I'll never forget Hungary 1956. It was probably the right thing in the long run, but it was pretty shitty for the poor heroic hungarians who believed the promises of the states.
Flying Toaster
Member
I can agree with this as an outside observer. Russia possibly solidified the hardliners but at what cost in a clearly Capitalist driven world economy?
PdotMichael
Banned
Well, Russia would need to invade half South Eastern Europe before it reaches Greece.
Also what is that nonsense again?
Coriolanus
Banned
It isn't. It still is a terrible proposal.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
Sure, but it was more of "If Germany and their satellite thugs can't go for a real solution that will help the UE in the long run, even if domestically can't mean the end, then yeah, better end this with a Grexit".
Basically Grexit is the bad way to end the charade of the austerity as a real solution for Greece.
LoveCake
Member
Greece should never have been allowed into the Euro in the first place, there were issues about the debts & finances when they were looking to join & submitted the records, then the MP's running Greece when they joined the Euro went on a borrowing & spending spree thinking they would always be backed & the people/institutions that lent them the money thought that as well.
When i went to my financial advisor a few weeks back we talked about Greece & i said that anyone would pay lower/no tax if they could & he said that is true, but because the people in Greece have been doing it for so long, increasing taxes as well as austerity is a double whammy for them, now it is not the citizens of Greece who are too blame entirely, though they have benefited over the years, it is the original people who put Greece in this situation, those people should be brought to account & held responsible for their actions, but they won't be.
Other citizens of EU countries have had to sacrifice to try & join the Euro & they are not happy that Greece has not done the same, this is from the Times today,
"Slovaks are angry because the average Greek pension is 882 a month, while in Slovakia it is less than 300, in a country where the average household wage is less than half that earned by Greeks. Slovakia made significant financial reforms to join the eurozone, and its leaders bitterly resent the fact that Greece has not done the same."
Now it is a real shame for the citizens of Greece, more so that they voted no but Syriza to push a proposal with even more austerity measures than before, the problem is the debt needs to be written off, but the cost is going to fall on somebody & that will be the tax payers of other countries & as we all know turkeys don't for for Christmas, Greece is dammed if they do & dammed if they don't but the other EU countries are also in the same situation, especially as some have to put the measures to the vote.
The problem with the Euro is that the currency should never have been introduced before there was a solid fiscal foundation, where taxes were the same, salaries were the same & prices were the same for everyone in all countries wanting to adopt the Euro, but that will take decades to happen, all the original currencies should have been brought into parallel before using the same currency.
The whole thing is a mess & it's the citizens & tax payers that will ultimately have to pick up the tab.
When i went to my financial advisor a few weeks back we talked about Greece & i said that anyone would pay lower/no tax if they could & he said that is true, but because the people in Greece have been doing it for so long, increasing taxes as well as austerity is a double whammy for them, now it is not the citizens of Greece who are too blame entirely, though they have benefited over the years, it is the original people who put Greece in this situation, those people should be brought to account & held responsible for their actions, but they won't be.
Other citizens of EU countries have had to sacrifice to try & join the Euro & they are not happy that Greece has not done the same, this is from the Times today,
"Slovaks are angry because the average Greek pension is 882 a month, while in Slovakia it is less than 300, in a country where the average household wage is less than half that earned by Greeks. Slovakia made significant financial reforms to join the eurozone, and its leaders bitterly resent the fact that Greece has not done the same."
Now it is a real shame for the citizens of Greece, more so that they voted no but Syriza to push a proposal with even more austerity measures than before, the problem is the debt needs to be written off, but the cost is going to fall on somebody & that will be the tax payers of other countries & as we all know turkeys don't for for Christmas, Greece is dammed if they do & dammed if they don't but the other EU countries are also in the same situation, especially as some have to put the measures to the vote.
The problem with the Euro is that the currency should never have been introduced before there was a solid fiscal foundation, where taxes were the same, salaries were the same & prices were the same for everyone in all countries wanting to adopt the Euro, but that will take decades to happen, all the original currencies should have been brought into parallel before using the same currency.
The whole thing is a mess & it's the citizens & tax payers that will ultimately have to pick up the tab.
PdotMichael
Banned
But for some reason still better than a controlled Grexit.
Flying Toaster
Member
Greece is a member of NATO this is correct. But the relationship between NATO countries and America has never truly been tested.
I don't honestly believe Russia wants the political theater of dealing with NATO countries but for America to look the other way, and we basically did look the other way outside of monetary sanctions I think that gives Russia and also NATO countries on the Russian border a pretty clear understanding that America might be more forgiving and less reactionary to Russia encroaching on European borders.
What nonsense?
No one is saying that is remotely likely, but we were having a conversation about what it would take for the US to actually do something in this situation besides basically nothing. And a Russian invasion is about the only way that happens, which basically means that the US will do nothing.
Ukraine wasnt apart of NATO and we had no real interest in Ukraine. No one in America would have supported a war. Greece would be different because of that NATO treaty. And who cares if it is untested? You have to honor it so that NATO actually survives.
Anyway, this is getting way off topic.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
No, is not, it's a joke that dosn't really fix any of the fundamental problems in the Greek economy. But is kinda sad that after Tsipras kneeling down, the troika still wants to kick him on the ground.
As I said, Tsipras should just show them the middle finger.
Flying Toaster
Member
It would be interesting to see how China and Russia would have handled the Greek economic situation if they were more financially secure to do so.
The political landscape would have made for awesome armchair economic theory discussions if Russia had the economic capital to start lending or investing in Greece as the rest of the Eurozone just sat back and bickered about what was working and not working.
Sorry I did not mean to go off topic.
The political landscape would have made for awesome armchair economic theory discussions if Russia had the economic capital to start lending or investing in Greece as the rest of the Eurozone just sat back and bickered about what was working and not working.
Sorry I did not mean to go off topic.
Ether_Snake
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It's one thing for a country to leave, it's another for the Troika to say "the official process from now on for a country in a difficult financial position will be the Tempxit". It would formalize the very idea that the "PIGS" are all going to be facing this eventuality unless they capitulate. It goes back to what I keep saying; the more things don't go in favor of Greece, the more it will be seen as necessary to elect Syriza-like parties in those countries as a form of protection. Nobody will simply put their house in order because Greece is forced out or because they are threatened with expulsion, instead people will say "Which party agrees with this? We're voting for those who are against them!".
edit: Also the problem with a Greece-led-Grexit is the Troika wouldn't help them, they would try to wreck Greece to scare the other countries into not doing the same. Heck, the temporary exit might be for that purpose too.
As that United States 100 dollar thread illustrates, taxes, salaries, and prices do not have to be the same to create a successful fiscal union. What is required is transfer payments from Rich political bodies (states or nations) to poorer political bodies. This is the reason why the US is successful and the Euro isnt.
Na, it was my fault more than yours
Coriolanus
Banned
Not really. I'm all for option 2 on that german paper, provided you ditch the re-entry aspect, which is clearly delusional.
People seem to be quite a bit more baffled by option 1 and by the fact that germany, of all people, would even present option 2.
Honestly, regardless of the proposal on the table, that it is Tsipras' own fault. He was told countless times that the criteria for a new ESM-based bailout would be harsher than for finishing the running 2nd program. He just chose to ignore that. He lost his face for a proposal that he had already been told wouldn't pass. Why should the creditors have pity with him after all this crap he pulled off over the last weeks.
I wonder if the re-entry part was some kind of way to spin it for electorate. Pretty obvious that Greece wouldn't come back into the euro in the next 20-30 years.
Don't forget Tsipras could have gotten a far better deal in february but decided to play risk and lost.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
As we said several times, we didn't had to go throught the ESM, it wasn't needed to be a pre-requesite for negotiations.
No, that was a shit deal too.
Coriolanus
Banned
Is what i suggested in the previous pasg. Schauble is a horrible man, but he's no idiot. He knows there aint no coming back any time soon. If the economy improves, why in blazes would you want to go back? Which leaves that bit of dialogue as window dressing.
Would be hilarious if someone had the balls to suggest that everybody that failed to follow Maastricht for more than, say, 4 quarters, had to face a temporary exit.
But the proposal that we are talking about right now is for the ESM. Tsipras explicitly submitted a proposal for the ESM. That that proposal is being rejected right now publicly is his fault. He always had the choice of just not submitting a proposal that he knew would lose him his face and that would not pass anyway. He could have stayed true to his referendum and submitted a proposal with measures that he and his electorate actually support, even if that would mean a Grexit.
But just submitting a copy of a proposal that both sides don't want is just stupid.
Coriolanus
Banned
Come on mate, you know better than to pin it all in one sole individual. That the proposal is being rejected right now is due to a whole host of political factors, among them Tsipras's behaviour.
Ether_Snake
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What's the point if he expects them to kick Greece out anyway? He's just going to be able to say Grexit was not a choice, but now they have to make it work. That's quite different than exiting.
Flying Toaster
Member
This actually makes more sense. But seriously every one has to see this as a major failed financial policy regardless of and exit by Greece or not. The massive reforms Greece would be required to make not even financially but also politically. Nothing short of an open minded rational government only doing things for the long term prosperity of the Greek people or a revolt would shake things up enough to ensure that the needed deep reforms and restructuring of how things are done in the Greek government would even work.
I don't think what the Greek people expect is necessarily unachievable but how the Greek government meets its citizens needs definately needs to be restructured.
Yep "Slovakia, Malta, Finland & Estonia objecting, reports @Elbarbie. EG trying to issue joint statement for summit"
https://twitter.com/NickMalkoutzis/status/619989098145538049
Funny how most of the responses are about Germany, anyway.
Is Euclid Tsakalotos having the worst week anyone ever had at his new job?
For what it's worth it's not like they can block a deal given their voting share... only 85% need to agree:
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/619970104860741633
Relaxed Muscle
Member
I don't understand this. If France considers it good enough and Germany (and their proxies thugs) refuses it for totally political reasons, how is Tsipras fault?
Except that wouldn't be a solution, it would just delay the inevitable.
People say we need a transfer union. But transfer unions only work when those who're supposed to pay the bill also get to call the shots. And honestly, those who can afford to pay obviously know what they're doing, so it's probably a good idea to listen to them anyway. Would Greece accept a EMU Treuhand? An EMU that not just suggests, but enforces substantial reforms? Because that level of control is a necessity for transfer unions to work in the long run.
Flying Toaster
Member
We all know that Germany is the puppeteer of all non German countries starting to sound like Germany.
Merkel is clearly a member of SPECTRE.
I know its political suicide but it would almost be poetic and brilliant if Germany decided to give not only debt relief but also gave a haircut to the debt owed by Greece. Tie it to "Unity and a great principle that all of Europe should look out for one another."
The reasons why it is being rejected are not my point. I am saying that Tsipras could have known that it was going to be rejected. Knowing that, he could at least have submitted a proposal that he actually supports instead of losing his face without purpose. In this case he really drove into a stone wall with open eyes.
The statement that last week's proposal was not going to be enough for this week's negotiations has been made by many critics of the referendum after the result came in. Not just Germans. It was one of the predominant reactions to that proposal.
Relaxed Muscle
Member
So what most relevant economists in the world are saying is a solution, you said it wouldn't just work?
My guess is that the whole point of having France helping you redact the proposal is that they were saying :"Yeah, do this because is going to get 100% appoved!"
Coriolanus
Banned
Depends on whether you believe that telegraph report about him. In which case dude is prolly sporting a massive grin right now.
That's a fair point. How do you think France factored into the submitted proposal, then?
Flying Toaster
Member
I have been trying to find anything on this very exact question. All I can find is twitter comments and brash statements but no actual plans on what an exit by Greece would look like.
It would definitely be a huge humanitarian undertaking for a lot of the EU to help the Greeks while they stabilize. I am curious as to how much that would cost in comparison to serious debt relief and keeping Greece in the EU.
It's already been announced that incase of grexit EU nations will provide humanitarian aid.(medicine, food, fuel etc.)
sublimit
Banned
I find it very funny that Merkel was so angry with the French government just because they helped Greece to form the proposition without Merkel knowing it .
It makes Germany's goals even more obvious than before.
I hope Greece doesn't accept it and takes aid from other "allies" instead.
It makes Germany's goals even more obvious than before.
I hope Greece doesn't accept it and takes aid from other "allies" instead.
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