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[Deleted member 231381]

Thanks, I forgot about the default option.

I mean, I'm not necessarily saying it will work - most private creditors were bought out by the ECB, so rather than worrying about getting some money back or not negotiators are concerned about whether it will look good politically or not to accept a haircut, which is a totally different matter - but Tsipras logic is pretty clear. In this case I actually expect it was Varoufakis' logic, because he wrote a book almost on this very situation in 2004 (iirc).

 

[Ether_Snake]

Not sure what to think about this.
An article on the CBC I read recently said that the CAD could go down to 65 cents US by next year if a No vote wins, but I don't know if that is true (I hope not).
In either case it seems like things in Greece are going to get worse before they get better.

Has nothing to do with Greece, I've been saying for a while the CAD will go down in the 60s because our housing bubble will pop. We have a huge mess on our hands that we made ourselves.

 

[kamorra]

Racist pretty much is a buzzword now, even if the both sides of the equation are white or same 'race'. At best your comment was ignorant, maybe ethnocentric thinking only Germans 'work', assuming you are both white (German, Greek).

Racism in Europe isn't about some human "race". People in Europe hate each other because they speak a different language or coming from a different country. The word to describe this phenomenon is Racism over here. It's not like in North America.

 

[KHlover]

Thanks, Goldman Sachs.

Yeah, know that feel. I wrote "the fault is squarely on Greece" in my last post and as far as the intend to cook the books goes it is true, but you're right- Goldman Sachs basically lying about the inner workings of the deal also didn't help. Our town lost $90 Mil the same way to J.P. Morgan, so I can understand how that stings :/

 

[Onyar]

Good. USE would be a terrible idea.

The true is that I rather prefer NUSE and SUSE than USE.

 

[tokkun]

Well, yes. That's a pretty important message at this point. The creditors now know that many Greeks are willing to default if the deal isn't good enough, so creditors now have a choice between some repayment (i.e., partial haircut in exchange for reforms) or no repayment (Greece defaults). Before the referendum, a lot of people thought that the result would be yes, so they were giving Tsipras shitty offers because they didn't think that Greece would actually dare risk a default.

I think the message is a bit weaker than that, given that Greek leaders and its creditors had different messages on the meaning of 'No'. I think many believe that if the 'No' vote had been described as endorsing an exit from the Euro rather than being some vague and abstract assertion of defiance that 'Yes' would have won. So I'm not sure that the leverage has really changed in that respect.

 

[zou]

It's true, if Greece hadn't cooked their books to get into the Euro despite not meeting the requirements we wouldn't be in this situation today. That part is squarely on Greece. After the crash of 2008...who knows.

Everyone knew about the swaps, they just didn't care.

 

[rezuth]

I imagine the quote was pretty low, though.

Don't feel shitty, you're in the 1% of ...entities probably who actually made money out of thies, even if it's just a few monies from a joke bet. Since you were actually able to bet on this I guess you're from the UK? Or was it just a bet with friends?

I'm from Sweden and it was using a betting site, 2.7x so I made some pretty okay money from it.

Still my coworker is from Greece and she is devastated about all this. Her relatives is having a really tough time back home.

I'll just donate a percentage of the money to charity, buy a better conscience.

 

[KingSnake]

The true is that I rather prefer NUSE and SUSE than USE.

There's no use for NUSE. Germany might as well go back to the DM as currency instead.

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

Everyone knew about the swaps, they just didn't care.

The german and french banks had a new guy in the town to lend money and benefit from, they didn't care he lied about his income.

People must know this truth too.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I think the message is a bit weaker than that, given that Greek leaders and its creditors had different messages on the meaning of 'No'. I think many believe that if the 'No' vote had been described as endorsing an exit from the Euro rather than being some vague and abstract assertion of defiance that 'Yes' would have won. So I'm not sure that the leverage has really changed in that respect.

Wrong. If "No" meant "exit the Euro", then Greece wouldn't have any leverage at all because they would be exiting the Euro - i.e., there aren't negotiations *at all*, just plain default. A "No" vote was effectively a vote to say "We will consider leaving the Euro if you do not give us a better offer", and knowing that Tsipras was backed in that by the Greek people does increase his barganing power with respect to creditors.

 

[tokkun]

Wrong. If "No" meant "exit the Euro", then Greece wouldn't have any leverage at all because they would be exiting the Euro - i.e., there aren't negotiations *at all*, just plain default. A "No" vote was effectively a vote to say "We will consider leaving the Euro if you do not give us a better offer", and knowing that Tsipras was backed in that by the Greek people does increase his barganing power with respect to creditors.

I meant if it had been "are you willing to exit the Euro rather than accept austerity".

I don't think you can interpret the vote that way since Tsipras definitively said that 'No' did not mean an exit from the Euro and Varoufakis was talking about how it would not be possible for Greece to be ejected based on Eurozone rules.

 

[zou]

The german and french banks had a new guy in the town to lend money and benefit from, they didn't care he lied about his income.

People must know this truth too.

well plus they didn't meet their own requirements either.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I meant if it had been "are you willing to exit the Euro rather than accept austerity".

I don't even know how you'd have a referendum on that. "austerity" isn't a thing, it's a wide spectrum of things of different length and depth. Maybe people would accept some austerity, but not lots of austerity, in exchange for the Euro - how would you measure that? This was the best possible way to try and gauge that sort of thing - "Are you willing to accept this specific level of austerity to stay within the Euro"?

I don't think you can interpret the vote that way since Tsipras definitively said that 'No' did not mean an exit from the Euro and Varoufakis was talking about how it would not be possible for Greece to be ejected based on Eurozone rules.

They're both right. No/OXI does not necessarily mean an exit from the Euro - it would be quite possible for creditors to come to a last minute agreement at the emergency meeting on the 7th and for a package to be agreed upon. No/OXI only means an exit from the Euro if creditors refuse this. I think this was quite well understood in Greece, what with it being the sole topic in town for the last god knows how many years.

 

[Endorphineforeverybody]

Just want to say to all who can't get their head around germany - Greece difference, to remember the north south conflict and how it applies on many European countries and on the EU itself. It's also interesting to have a look on want people in the south think about the north/otherway around even in country's or east to west, their's always a connection, often natural resources, climate.


My two cents on the vote. It's sad, I think it's not the right decision in the long run.
But let's see what really happens next. Before all be doomed etc.

 

[CTLance]

I'm from Sweden and it was using a betting site, 2.7x so I made some pretty okay money from it.

Still my coworker is from Greece and she is devastated about all this. Her relatives is having a really tough time back home.

I'll just donate a percentage of the money to charity, buy a better conscience.

That's a weird roundabout approach to buying a better conscience.

Why not invite your colleague to a nice dinner from the winnings? Or, grab some movie tickets for her (and her partner, if she has one)? Send her family a percentage of your winnings, for them to use, or for the local church/as a donation for the needy as determined by them? Buy her some flowers in a workplace-compatible pot that she can look at from time to time, to better her mood?

Iunno, mang. You have a victim of the crisis right in front of you, and a bunch of money burning a hole into your pocket. Help her. Why waste money on middlemen.

Just a friendly suggestion, of course. I don't mean to criticise you (or prevent you from donating money).

 

[SmoothBrain]

I'm surprised that only ~60% were actually for a no, expected it to be around ~70%. I really hope that the consequences from the referendum will benefit the greeks in the middle to long run.

Interesting how so many were saying before the vote, Tsipras will soon learn don't mess with Merkel and instead it's now a No vote and Merkel is forced to say we respect the will of the Greek people.

Of course she did. The real question is: what will happen next?

Oh well. Stop being lazy and vote, i guess.

Spoiler

j/k

You are actually right though, the voter turnout in germany is decreasing from election to election (small bump in 2013). The big parties still hold the majority and to be honest - it might be better. Assuming there is a chance for Greece to get a good deal, a referendum in Germany wouldn't be (probably) in the interest of Greece.

Well, yes. That's a pretty important message at this point. The creditors now know that many Greeks are willing to default if the deal isn't good enough, so creditors now have a choice between some repayment (i.e., partial haircut in exchange for reforms) or no repayment (Greece defaults). Before the referendum, a lot of people thought that the result would be yes, so they were giving Tsipras shitty offers because they didn't think that Greece would actually dare risk a default.

I hope you are right, the general voice seems to be rather pessimistic about anything. My personal worry after a Greece default is the debate about reparation payments for the second world war. This can't end well.

 

[Yamauchi]

Economist Paul Krugman has written a piece on the result:

Europe dodged a bullet on Sunday. Confounding many predictions, Greek voters strongly supported their government’s rejection of creditor demands. And even the most ardent supporters of European union should be breathing a sigh of relief.

Of course, that’s not the way the creditors would have you see it. Their story, echoed by many in the business press, is that the failure of their attempt to bully Greece into acquiescence was a triumph of irrationality and irresponsibility over sound technocratic advice.

But the campaign of bullying — the attempt to terrify Greeks by cutting off bank financing and threatening general chaos, all with the almost open goal of pushing the current leftist government out of office — was a shameful moment in a Europe that claims to believe in democratic principles. It would have set a terrible precedent if that campaign had succeeded, even if the creditors were making sense.

...

More at: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/06/opinion/paul-krugman-ending-greeces-bleeding.html

 

[TheRealTalker]

Which countries care most about #greece today? Map shows search interest on Google

https://twitter.com/GoogleTrends/status/617822522990530560

https://googledataorg.cartodb.com/u/googledata/viz/b5cbe220-2362-11e5-91a4-42010a14cb63/embed_map


lol at us in Canada

 

[Savitar]

https://googledataorg.cartodb.com/u/googledata/viz/b5cbe220-2362-11e5-91a4-42010a14cb63/embed_map


lol at us in Canada

You laugh now.

But the glorious might of the Canadian Empire take over Greeece who will be laughing.

 

[Negotiator]

Economist Paul Krugman has written a piece on the result:


More at: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/06/opinion/paul-krugman-ending-greeces-bleeding.html

"The truth is that Europe’s self-styled technocrats are like medieval doctors who insisted on bleeding their patients — and when their treatment made the patients sicker, demanded even more bleeding."

Spot on!

 

[itxaka]

Which? Ireland isn't even remotely close to their pre-crisis GDP, and neither are Portugal or Spain.
The same can be said for their debt to gdp ratios, which still are way the fuck higher than pre-crisis levels.

I find it quite funny that when people put Spain as a country in which austerity works because of growth, they forget to mention all the misery, social cuts, suicide rates, school dropout rates, exclusion levels, poverty levels and the staggering unemployment rate of 25% and for young people of 50%.

Growth means shit if nobody can afford fucking bread.

 

[Negotiator]

I find it quite funny that when people put Spain as a country in which austerity works because of growth, they forget to mention all the misery, social cuts, suicide rates, school dropout rates, exclusion levels, poverty levels and the staggering unemployment rate of 25% and for young people of 50%.

Growth means shit if nobody can afford fucking bread.

Don't forget the unoccupied houses:

http://www.thelocal.es/20140225/spain-worst-in-europe-for-empty-properties

What a fucking disaster.

 

[M1ch04c4n0]

https://googledataorg.cartodb.com/u/googledata/viz/b5cbe220-2362-11e5-91a4-42010a14cb63/embed_map


lol at us in Canada

From what I get from Twitter, most of the interest in Mexico comes from self-appointed "leftist", who believe this events will make things change in the country too. But reading their tweets, I think they believe they just found out a way out of their own debts: "I don't believe I should pay you, what? I can't don't that? just look at Greece!"

 

[Coriolanus]

lol at us in Canada

No surprise that people living under Abbot and Harper would be watching this, tbh.

 

[ElTorro]

So, assuming that Greece exits the Euro in practice, what's a realistic timeframe for them to eventually come back? Five years, ten years, twenty years?

 

[Negotiator]

So, assuming that Greece exits the Euro in practice, what's a realistic timeframe for them to eventually come back? Five years, ten years, twenty years?

Come back to Eurozone? Is that a joke? Why would they want to come back?!

 

[PodcastFips]

So, assuming that Greece exits the Euro in practice, what's a realistic timeframe for them to eventually come back? Five years, ten years, twenty years?

Never?

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Come back to Eurozone? Is that a joke? Why would they want to come back?!

Well, supposing in thirty years time there are Eurobonds and fiscal transfers and all of Greece's immediate neighbours except Turkey are Euromembers, Greece's economy will be pretty tightly responsive to the Eurozone and the reasons that it failed for them will be gone. Under those conditions, rejoining would probably be a good idea. That's a fairly big "supposing", though. I'm not sure under what conditions true fiscal transfer within the Eurozone will ever become a realizable prospect - probably the prospect of a big boy like Italy defaulting.

 

[ElTorro]

Come back to Eurozone? Is that a joke? Why would they want to come back?!

For the same reason they joined in the first place? Having access to a strong currency and participating in the project of European integration. After all, the current Greek government is not tired of stressing how much they believe in Europe, and a big part of Greeks apparently still agrees.

 

[Negotiator]

Well, supposing in thirty years time there are Eurobonds and fiscal transfers and all of Greece's immediate neighbours except Turkey are Euromembers, Greece's economy will be pretty tightly responsive to the Eurozone and the reasons that it failed for them will be gone. Under those conditions, rejoining would probably be a good idea. That's a fairly big "supposing", though. I'm not sure under what conditions true fiscal transfer within the Eurozone will ever become a realizable prospect - probably the prospect of a big boy like Italy defaulting.

I think it's a better idea to attract countries like Norway and Switzerland. Greece should be left out of this mess. 5 years of suffering has been enough.

 

[mercenar1e]

if Greece leaves do they have to pay back what they owe? or do other European countries pay the tab?

 

[Endorphineforeverybody]

Never?

Never say never

 

[ElTorro]

if Greece leaves do they have to pay back what they owe? or do other European countries pay the tab?

Technically, they still have to pay the full debt. However, because that debt has to paid back in Euros, a full payback is even less likely than it already is due to the unfavorable exchange rate between the Euro and Greece's new currency.

 

[Sakura]

For the same reason they joined in the first place? Having access to a strong currency and participating in the project of European integration. After all, the current Greek government is not tired of stressing how much they believe in Europe, and a big part of Greeks apparently still agrees.

They can believe in Europe and stuff without adopting the Euro though.

 

[Rhysser]

I think officials claiming 'Grexit' are trying to fight for a better hand for future negotiations. If you look at where Greece is located in the contexts of various maps like EU and NATO, it has been one of the few stable countries surrounded by much less stable countries in the Balkans and border to the east. It would be a huge mistake for western powers to allow Greece to fall under the sphere of influence of eastern powers, or to entirely destabilize. That's just asking to bring trouble to what is literally the doorstep to the west.

Also I think the EU is a strange structure. Tying your currency to bigger powers with more resources than yourself is a mistake if there is not also a political union, specifically because of situations like this. Germany and Greece play in different leagues, and just like northern states in the US often end up feeding southern states money, the same will happen in the EU from richer to poorer states. What they get in return is influence, stability, a larger market, etc. If the EU members cannot accept this the union will ultimately fail. Of course, the EU does also need a means to influence policies of its member countries, but the method by which they have so far been trying to do it is at best ineffectual and at worst highly divisive, as evidenced by this turn of events. I don't really have the answer to this one though They'll have to figure this out for the future.

 

[pigeon]

if Greece leaves do they have to pay back what they owe? or do other European countries pay the tab?

If Greece chooses to default they won't pay back their debts at face value -- that's literally what makes it a default.

What happens after that is very unclear and up to a lot of factors. One possibility is that that people holding the debt would take a haircut (lose some percentage of the value) and also have the maturity extended (so they get the rest of their payments later). At the moment that mostly seems to be the ECB and the IMF, so they'd realize losses. It's a little unclear what it means if the ECB has to write off several billion euros.

The ECB could refuse to accept the default and continue demanding full payment. But they don't have any enforcement authority over a Greece that's using the drachma, so they'd need to seek extraordinary measures to get that payment. What those measures might look like is, again, anyone's guess.

 

[twobear]

Godspeed, Greece. I hope only the best for you. I wish that in the UK the right wing had not been so able to dupe the populace into believing that austerity was necessary and a good thing, like they clearly haven't in Greece.

 

[Alabamaman]

So, assuming that Greece exits the Euro in practice, what's a realistic timeframe for them to eventually come back? Five years, ten years, twenty years?

You think anyone would take them back after they refuse to pay the debts?

 

[Foffy]

Godspeed, Greece. I hope only the best for you. I wish that in the UK the right wing had not been so able to dupe the populace into believing that austerity was necessary and a good thing, like they clearly haven't in Greece.

The US has fallen into the austerity trap too. This is why I assumed it'd be a bad thing in Greece, for it's backfired in every regard here.

I believe a few states went ham on austerity measures, and it turns out they're now bleeding money over it.

 

[ElTorro]

You think anyone would take them back after they refuse to pay the debts?

After a certain time and depending on the political and economical situation at that point, sure. It's not like Greeks as people are total pariahs now. They were pissed by their corrupt governments and elected the only other alternative. Can't hardly blame them for that, and very many Europeans don't blame them either.

 

[Negotiator]

For the same reason they joined in the first place? Having access to a strong currency and participating in the project of European integration. After all, the current Greek government is not tired of stressing how much they believe in Europe, and a big part of Greeks apparently still agrees.

I've said it before: Greece was allowed to join the Eurozone because of its geopolitical importance, not because it had a strong economy. EU leaders know this, even though they are reluctant to communicate it to their electorates (for obvious reasons).

If you want Greece in the Eurozone due to geopolitics, that's fine, but you have to realize the implications.

The Euro club is not a la carte (joining/leaving whenever you want endlessly). It's not supposed to be this way, not to mention that Greek people would be screwed over once again because of the unfavorable New Drachma/Euro exchange rate (the old one was 340.75 drachmas/euro).

 

[Rhysser]

You think anyone would take them back after they refuse to pay the debts?

Most likely yes. A quick look through European history should convince you of that. E.g. Germany currently at the forefront of Europe even though they caused a lot of trouble there.

Maybe it'll take 10 instead of 5 years etc, but times change, people move on from the past, and look to the future.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

The US has fallen into the austerity trap too. This is why I assumed it'd be a bad thing in Greece, for it's backfired in every regard here.

I believe a few states went ham on austerity measures, and it turns out they're now bleeding money over it.

U.S. simply did not go down to the austerity route comparative to most European countries. Obama has run a deficit larger than GDP growth every year since he has come into office. You can argue about the scale of the fiscal injection and whether it should have been larger, but it is factually untrue to say that the U.S. engaged in austerity spending - it's the main reason the American economy is so much more robust than the European one right now.

 

[Negotiator]

I think officials claiming 'Grexit' are trying to fight for a better hand for future negotiations. If you look at where Greece is located in the contexts of various maps like EU and NATO, it has been one of the few stable countries surrounded by much less stable countries in the Balkans and border to the east. It would be a huge mistake for western powers to allow Greece to fall under the sphere of influence of eastern powers, or to entirely destabilize. That's just asking to bring trouble to what is literally the doorstep to the west.

That's exactly what I mean when I say that Greece has a huge geopolitical importance. Like it or not, this won't change anytime soon. Geography is a bitch.

 

[Foffy]

U.S. simply did not go down to the austerity route comparative to most European countries. Obama has run a deficit larger than GDP growth every year since he has come into office. You can argue about the scale of the fiscal injection and whether it should have been larger, but it is factually untrue to say that the U.S. engaged in austerity spending - it's the main reason the American economy is so much more robust than the European one right now.

Austerity in the sense of cutting public services and relying on big business to come in and make a booming scene. You know, the ideal for American capitalism. And only a few states tried it, but never to the volume of the Greece scenario. We might get there with the TPP and what that entails and the craters it makes, though.

 

[PodcastFips]

You think anyone would take them back after they refuse to pay the debts?

That is not even the biggest obstacle. But a Grexit could be the first step into a crumbling EU that might look a whole lot different in 15-20 years.

 

[twobear]

You think anyone would take them back after they refuse to pay the debts?

I doubt they would say no on principal if Greece's economy recovers. It's like people warning that people are disincentivised to set up companies with high levels of tax. They're not going to turn down money.

 

[pigeon]

Austerity in the sense of cutting public services and relying on big business to come in and make a booming scene. You know, the ideal for American capitalism. And only a few states tried it, but never to the volume of the Greece scenario. We might get there with the TPP and what that entails and the craters it makes, though.

What?

I am utterly baffled by the suggestion that the TPP might impose austerity on America. How does this make any sense at all? Like, it's okay to be upset about the TPP, but it's more effective to be upset about it for things it actually does, rather than for other things that you are also worried about. The TPP won't cause chemtrails either.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

What?

I am utterly baffled by the suggestion that the TPP might impose austerity on America. How does this make any sense at all? Like, it's okay to be upset about the TPP, but it's more effective to be upset about it for things it actually does, rather than for other things that you are also worried about. The TPP won't cause chemtrails either.

TPP can't sink steel economies.